Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #4

[gregjrichards]

2-year-old girl among new coronavirus cases confirmed in Singapore

A 2-year-old girl has been diagnosed with coronavirus in Singapore. The toddler had been evacuated from Wuhan on January 30 and placed under quarantine until the infection was confirmed on Monday morning.

A 37-year-old Singaporean with “no recent travel history to China" was also confirmed to have the virus on Tuesday.

That brings the total number of coronavirus cases in Singapore up to 45.

Coronavirus live updates: Death toll surpasses 1,000 in mainland China - CNN

I feel so sorry for everyone who has the horrific virus but it must be even worse for the children. They are most likely away from their parents and must be terrified of the masks and Drs in the suits. What a nightmare situation.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Ben is getting tested to get his all clear to leave on Thursday, and his mom drops off care package, and someone else who dropped off care package with Irish goodies for Ben (including his beer!)

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This is Dr. Shultz who does daily updates, and his post from yesterday. He goes over every day what's been in the news and tries to explain. Excellent and I've learned so much from him.

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[JerseyGirl]

KFC food worker in China was infected with the coronavirus, despite efforts to curb spreading with contactless delivery and thousands of store closures

A KFC worker in China has been infected with the deadly coronavirus. The patient reportedly worked at the front counter of a KFC in an eatery in the Xiaozhai Intime shopping center, in the Xian, Shaanxi province, where the worker's main job involved food preparation.

 

[Amonet]

More like 30,000 deaths based on this reporting...,....
____________________________

The Epoch Times, a Chinese-American anti-communist newspaper, sent journalists to speak with the heads of several funeral homes and crematoriums in Hubei province – whose capital, Wuhan, is the epicenter of the current novel coronavirus outbreak. The newspaper found that adding up the total number of people cremated per day in several funeral homes yielded a significantly larger number than the official number of deaths tallied since the outbreak began in December.

According to the Epoch Times, the crematoria were handling “4-5 times the usual cremation volume” per day. Few of those cremated were officially confirmed as coronavirus cases.

“I received 127 corpses yesterday [February 3], and burned 116. Among them, 8 were confirmed [coronavirus cases] on the death certificate and 48 were suspected,” a funeral home director in Hubei using the pseudonym “You Hu” told the newspaper. “I am about to collapse, we are under great pressure now.”

The newspaper offered insight into a larger funeral home in Hankou, a Wuhan neighborhood, which it estimated had the capacity to burn 576 people per day. “You Hu” told the Epoch Times that the backlog of people waiting to be cremated was not due to lack of space in the burners, but lack of sufficient transportation and collapsing staff numbers, as few were sleeping or taking breaks. Due to transportation and staff limits, the Epoch Times estimated that the Hankou crematorium was burning 225 corpses a day.

With this math, the newspaper concludes that Hubei province incinerated 341 bodies on February 3; China reported 65 deaths nationwide due to coronavirus that day.

The article went on to state that Hubei province has eight municipal funeral homes. Similarly judging from their capacity for bodies and the amount of time the furnaces are running, the article adds another 135 patients a day to the tally from five of these. The other three, it concludes, burned 476 people a day. While less confident in these numbers since the journalists were unable to speak to their managers, these numbers reveal a rough estimate of nearly 1,000 people incinerated per day.

Of course, the article notes that there is no guarantee that all these people died after becoming infected with the novel coronavirus. It notes that, of the 127 remains “You Hu” received on February 3 (116 were cremated that day), eight were confirmed coronavirus patients and 48 were suspected carriers. The newspaper also identified another funeral home that took in 22 sets of remains and three were confirmed coronavirus cases.

Report: Two Wuhan Funeral Homes Cremating 300+ Bodies a Day

Thanks for posting this, that's very interesting.

A few things stand out. The source is a self-proclaimed anti-communist organization, and that could potentially lead to bias in their reports.

I don't see anything in there about the expected counts per day? We have to remember that deaths for reasons other than coronavirus haven't stopped, and in a very large city you'd expect them to be the greatest number coming in for cremation, even at this point in time.

We don't have details on who those people are or the circumstances of their deaths or why they were listed as 'suspected' cases. In that study that was reported of 138 cases, a number of people in the study contracted the virus through already being in the hospital, many with pre-existing problems, and some of those might have died in this time even if they hadn't contracted the coronavirus. The existing hospitals in Wuhan/Hubei have been struggling with the numbers of patients coming in, and it appears that they have been struggling, especially in the first few weeks, to separate out coronavirus patients from other patients. Then you have things like someone coming into the ER with a heart attack and it might not be immediately known that they have had contact with someone (confirmed, or more likely not confirmed) with coronavirus; that puts the ER staff at risk, and if they are revived they might be put onto a regular ward instead of a coronavirus isolation ward, where they may then spread the coronavirus to other people with serious heart conditions.

So those figures are really interesting, but we really need more details to fully understand what they mean.

 

[Amonet]

I wonder what Dr. Tedros would say about this. Maybe he will (have to) address it at some point, perhaps via a reporter’s question. He’s been talking about the dangers of spread to nations which may lack healthcare infrastructure.

ETA: So speaking of Dr T, when can we expect to hear from him and his fine team again? Tomorrow morning? A lot has happened. Is it enough to be considered “sustained person to person transmission” in order to declare a pandemic? We will see this week.

ETa2: And when can we expect the next White House Briefing from Secretary Azar and team? What does Dr. Fauci think about this situation so far globally I wonder. I know he has emphasized that this is highly infectious. I wonder what all the professionals think about the level of spread so far.

On the question of whether or not the WHO might consider this a pandemic at this point based on sustained transmission. From what we know in most countries reporting at the moment, the sustained transmission is being caught by contact checking. Will that be enough for the WHO to declare sustained transmission, or do they wait for sustained 'wild' transmission, ie. outbreaks that have not been caught by contact checking and have spread through a town without anyone knowing for a while that it was happening?

 

[JerseyGirl]

4 more residents of evacuated from Hong Mei House on Cheung Hong Estate, Tsing Yi, Hong Kong estate show coronavirus symptoms

In Tsing Yi, cleaners in full-body protective suits and masks stepped up their work at the infected housing block, spraying the building and its nearby facilities with sanitiser to disinfect lobbies, lifts, and corridors, and the smell of bleach filled the air.

 

[Trino]

Just don't know what to say any longer. The virus is active and spreading, and we're kidding ourselves if we think it could not affect us.

 

[Trino]

Two year old girl has been cleared (Saturday).
2-year-old hospitalized in Israel over fears she caught coronavirus in Thailand

 

[Amonet]

Coronavirus could infect SIXTY PER CENT of the global population if it cannot be controlled, top Hong Kong medical official warns

Coronavirus 'could infect SIXTY PER CENT of the global population if it cannot be controlled' | Daily Mail Online

This Professor Leung, his position is noted as "chair of public health medicine in [Hong Kong]. That would be a position in which someone would have to have an awareness of epidemic spread for various diseases, and he's a professor. So, I would accept him as an expert source.

His estimate of 60% has made it into the headline. Apparently he also said that might not happen in a single year but possibly in waves. How do they make estimates like that? They learn not just about current viruses like colds and flu that circulate the globe every year, but also about historical epidemics and pandemics. Even with the plague or similar epidemics, not everyone would get infected in a single years. Sometimes it would come back the following year, and those who hadn't acquired it the first year would still be susceptible and their numbers high enough that it can once again circle the globe. This is pretty much what happens with the flu.

Compare that to the % of the global population that contracts flu each year? I have no idea what that is, but it won't be 100%...not everyone will acquire it, many people have had that strain in the past few years and so won't get it this year, others have been vaccinated.

Even if this is just like a flu virus, this could be devastating to global healthcare, even if not everyone needs hospitalisation or ICU care. That's what they're trying to protect us from. If we had the extra spaces in healthcare/hospitals, perhaps this would have been allowed to run its course as we can see that some of the 'cure' (the stopping of factories and impacts on trade, the shortage of masks etc) can also be damaging. But we don't have those extra spaces. And we definitely don't have existing isolation rooms in hospitals, not rooms designed to not allow the air back out.

Another thing we have is herd immunity, and once a certain number are immune (either via having had the disease or via vaccination) it's a lot harder to spread a disease. We don't have that situation entirely for flu, but those things do limit the numbers who contract flu each year. Having hospital beds and ICU care for people who have more severe symptoms helps to limit the mortality rate from flu.

At the moment the contact-checking/ring containment seems to be working (at least on the surface) outside of Hubei. Spring and summer are coming which ought to inhibit the natural spread of the virus between humans. Let's say that by next winter they can get enough vaccine for ring vaccination, and then by next spring they can do mass vaccination....these things should really chip into that 60% estimate that comes from a 'good' source.

 

[Amonet]

From that link:

Steve Walsh is in quarantine in a London hospital today after picking up the disease at a Singapore conference last month and coming home to Hove via an Alpine skiing holiday. He lives with his wife Catherine and contracted the virus during a conference at the Grand Hyatt hotel in Singapore <> more than two weeks ago. He then travelled to Les Contamines-Montjoie, near Megeve, for a ski break to stay with friends [redacted], who own the chalet where 11 people were exposed to the virus. They are both believed to have coronavirus and so has their nine-year-old son. Mr Walsh flew from Geneva to London on an easyJet plane with 100-plus passengers and crew before going to his local pub, The Grenadier in Hove. Over the weekend four people on the ski holiday with him, who also returned home to the city last week, tested positive including two GPs. Public health officials are urgently tracing patients who might have been infected - but have been accused of 'losing control' and keeping 'secrets' from the public.

Woah, that's a lot of people he has been closely exposed to, and I dread to think how many patients might have visited the doctors surgeries where the two GPs work.

On the other hand, all the cases that seem to have contracted the virus from Mr Walsh appear to have been the people in the close-quarters of the ski chalets in France. It's possible that he wasn't transmitting the virus very strongly by the time he got home to the UK?

Hopefully those GPs were caught in time due to being contacts of Mr Walsh and also weren't transmitting strongly when they ere in contact with patients.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Coronavirus expected to hit automakers' bottom lines

Detroit — As some automakers restart production in China this week and others extend downtime amid the coronavirus crisis, industry experts predict their bottom lines will take a hit.

All three Detroit automakers extended a production shutdown in China because of the outbreak following the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. But General Motors Co. has now extended its downtime for its 15 Chinese assembly plants to at least Saturday...

 

[JerseyGirl]

South Korea warns citizens against traveling to 6 Asian countries

South Korea’s Health Ministry has warned its citizens against traveling to six Asian nations, including Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, due to fears over the coronavirus.

Citizens are recommended to minimize traveling to those countries to prevent bringing back novel coronavirus to South Korea.

Coronavirus news and live updates: Death toll surpasses 1,000 in mainland China - CNN

 

[beatrixpotter]

Coronavirus could infect SIXTY PER CENT of the global population if it cannot be controlled, top Hong Kong medical official warns

Coronavirus 'could infect SIXTY PER CENT of the global population if it cannot be controlled' | Daily Mail Online

But but you just told me I probably won't get it?!? lol I live in a community with one of the fastest growing Indian Asian communities. If it's spreading in India and we don't cut off flights then it will end up here. I also have a medical condition requiring me to regularly go to a hospital and hospital lab. I'm pretty darn worried about that.

I know nothing is near me yet...that I know of. I'm just one of those people always looking towards the future and worrying about negative scenarios. Life long anxiety here. I don't live in an isolated rural community. I live somewhere primed to explode if it ends up here. And most everything I was reading last night seemed to indicate they admit they've lost control over this. :/

 

[JerseyGirl]

CDC identifies 13th patient with coronavirus in U.S.

According to a brief statement released by UC San Diego Health late Monday, all four patients admitted to its isolation units last week were discharged back to their quarantine quarters at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar after the CDC said coronavirus tests came back negative.

Further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for coronavirus. The confirmed positive patient was returned to the hospital for observation and isolation until cleared by CDC for release

According to the university, one additional patient from quarantine was also transported to UC San Diego Health. The patients being evaluated and will remain admitted until the test results are confirmed by the CDC.

“Both patients are doing well and have minimal symptoms,” the university said.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

WHO daily briefing starts in 7 minutes (if on time, as their 2 day meeting started today).

It appears that mainstream news organizations as of today are carrying it in US and Canada live.

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Hopefully media will ask (100% chance lol) about yesterday notice by some MSM that China will no longer include asymptomatic folks in their counts. It's already fishy as if you look at the BNO site we are following here on thread... yesterday was very lacking to usual reporting. Dunno....

 

[BlueShoe]

Although the spring weather should help slow things down, I do hope governments are not relying on that to stop this virus. I do hope that all governments are putting in place emergency measures in case they are needed. I fear that hospitals everywhere, including the U.S. could be rapidly overrun if the virus starts to spread significantly. The patient accidentally released because the test did not reveal the virus at first (see post above), shows the dangers of complacency. MOO

 

[scandinavian girl]

The 1918 influenza pandemic occurred in three waves and was the most severe pandemic in history.

1918 Pandemic Influenza: Three Waves | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Although the spring weather should help slow things down, I do hope governments are not relying on that to stop this virus. I do hope that all governments are putting in place emergency measures in case they are needed. I fear that hospitals everywhere, including the U.S. could be rapidly overrun if the virus starts to spread significantly. The patient accidentally released because the test did not reveal the virus at first (see post above), shows the dangers of complacency. MOO

Keep in mind when considering he was "released" was that he was shipped back to the isolation on the military base. Yeah, those that travelled with him perhaps were all protected, but adds to the learnings and reinforces that for folks to be released to general public, they have to have not had fever for x timeframe, and have to have had 2 negative tests. There may be differences with the quarantined folks as they are isolated to/from hospital etc. Dunno

 

[JerseyGirl]

US State Department authorizes departure of personnel from Hong Kong due to coronavirus

The US State Department authorized the departure of non-emergency personnel and their families from the US Consulate General in Hong Kong on Monday due to the novel coronavirus outbreak.

“Authorized departure gives these employees and their family members the option to depart if they wish. Departure is not required. The U.S. Consulate’s authorized departure status will be reviewed in 30 days,” the spokesperson said in a statement.

The decision to authorize their departure was made "out of an abundance of caution related to uncertainties associated with the 2019-nCoV outbreak and to ensure the safety and security of U.S. Government personnel and family members," the State Department said.

The US Consulate General in Hong Kong will remain open to the public.

Coronavirus news and live updates: Death toll surpasses 1,000 in mainland China - CNN

 

[dixiegirl1035]

WHO Presser has started

I'll do BRIEF notes and ETA updates through it, focusing on what is new for here and might be of interest.

Started with Ebola updates, 3 in last week. 5,400 investigated... talking about vaccinations etc...lots more I missed... the world needs to continue to fund the Ebola virus work.

We have new NAME! CoViD-19 (Corona virus disease 19)

42,708 confirmed in china, 1017 deaths in China, most in Hebei.. Outside 393 cases in 24 countries and 1 death

They are going to levered UN.

First vaccine could be ready in 18 months, we must prepare prior until/ for vaccines.

Need to invest in this window of opportunity e.g. China and rest of world... see the difference in spread and deaths. We will regret if we lose this window. We have this opportunity due to what China did. This cannot stay this way for long. We need to stand in unison to fight.

LOL! Maria isn't there, so folks were asking. He said "I didn't realize how popular she is".. well she is at meeting in Bejing.

Q&A beginning....

What can others in UN do ? Many sister agencies need info... e.g. international maritime and airline agencies, UNICEF, refugees agencies, and World Bank re mitigating impacts..... we feed into the UN system. We have had large scale teleconferences as to crisis coordination.

Q. Reports of National Health commission in China re confirmed but no symptoms are not being counted? A. I don't have that info, we will check into (e.d. they knew yesterday and still cannot answer this question? )

There was more on this but I'm too confused to translate, sorry... there will be a transcription later I'll post.

RE Africa case.. He is not familiar with. He hasn't heard. We will follow up

re cruise ship that is refusing docking of Westerdam. We are in daily discussions with maritine organizations. We are doing risk management approach and free unloading of cargo and dignity and human rights of travellers. We need to ensure not either under or over reaction. With more events of folks congregating, we will look at more in future. There is no such thing as zero risk. We are doing proper risk management and more data on that tomorrow.

... a. we have countries with weakers health systems. the world is getting smaller and smaller. what happens at the weakest link happens to the rest of us. So my message is the same, we have to invest in helping those countries that need it to help their systems. We have seen 45 countries that need our support. We must take what is happening now and commit to preparedness to strenghtening our health systems. I have GREAT concern that if this virus goes to a weak health system, IT WILL create havoc. Outbreaks can have political, economy and social upheavals. A virus is worse than terrorism as to powerful consequences than terrorism as to these 3 upheavals. It keeps me up at night.

re doctor in Hong kong that said 60% of population could be reached. A. If a fire get out of controlled, it can burn. The data is saying we have an opportunity to contain, and prepare. WE have a window. We have an Infodemic more than an epidemic. Real issue is to empower people to protect themselves. Let's not scare people, let's confine etc... We can address later. Caution everyone please don't follow unbased info. We need to focus like Ebola.. now contained in DRC. We need to do like that... hammer the source. We prefer what can be done with solutions at hand to contain at source... This is airborne, more contaigous. In terms of potential, coronavirus we take more seriously that Ebola as is airborne. Stop spread, invest in containment, and moving to other strategies if needed. We need to take serious measures.

reason name of CoVid-19. It names the virus, and later allows for future of more coronavirus. And is a broad name. Was named by international virrologists. Genus/species will be done for scientist. But common name needed that aren't stigmatizing.

Q Animal source identified. A Very similar to bats. But when sampling in Wuhan, didn't find in bats. So we think perhaps intermediate source, but not found what amplifier source is yet. Studies are ongoing in looking for animals. Now market closed, evidence doesn't exists anymore. Still ongoing investigation.

Q What should be done in epicenter of outbreak now A. focus on 3 issues. Strong measures in Wuhan, now expanding. You can see over last reports, first caring for systems and so many sick. Now, communities at large to follow mild cases.. move out to detect milder cases which is prudent. When you are focusing on large fire... hard to do contract tracing... in containment you want to break into surveillance.. not sure it will work...they are trying to push surveillance.. no guarantee on that. The information on this area as to clinical data.. systematic info not anectdotal, are very important...

I have to end this as I'm up on 60 minutes of editing this post... transcript will be done later.. no time to review/fix typos.. sorry!!!

they are still going.. and they are talking about using Wuhan for testing new stuff...

NOT the end... presser still going but my 60 minutes are up. They will do tomorrow