Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #5

[AStartoSteerBy]

First coronavirus patient had NO connection to Wuhan seafood market - so did the disease start elsewhere?

The first patient diagnosed with the novel coronavirushas been reported to be a bed-bound pensioner who had no connection to a food market in Wuhan where Beijing's officials say the outbreak began.

First coronavirus patient had NO connection to Wuhan seafood market | Daily Mail Online

_____________
Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

"As confirmed cases of a novel virus surge around the world with worrisome speed, all eyes have so far focused on a seafood market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the outbreak. But a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis.

Lucey says if the new data are accurate, the first human infections must have occurred in November 2019—if not earlier—because there is an incubation time between infection and symptoms surfacing. If so, the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December. “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace,” Lucey asserts.

Bin Cao of Capital Medical University, the corresponding author of The Lancet article and a pulmonary specialist, wrote in an email to ScienceInsider that he and his co-authors “appreciate the criticism” from Lucey."

“Now It seems clear that [the] seafood market is not the only origin of the virus,” he wrote. “But to be honest, we still do not know where the virus came from now.”

Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally
___________________

Interesting that the original article published in Science was dated 26 January 2020. The scientific community's skepticism of a single point origin of the seafood market was raised quite early. It's curious that China's researcher also admits the possibility.

The matter of origin is medically important for developing treatments and anticipating possible outbreaks.

 

[Herat]

More prepared than lucky?

Infographic: The Countries Best And Worst Prepared For An Epidemic

The US is the best country in the world to be prepared for an epidemic.

"The United States was named as the country with the strongest measures in place and it came first with 83.5 out of 100. The United Kingdom came second with 77.9 followed by the Netherlands with 75.6. China, which has initiated a series of lockdowns in response to the outbreak, comes 51st with a score of 48.2. This map shows levels of preparation across the world and Africa's vulnerability is immediately noticeable.

Description
This chart shows countries/territories ranked by ability to respond to an epidemic/pandemic in 2019.
"

Hello Canada ! I guess your are the United States now.

For the US, the country I worry about is Mexico. Many more people cross the land borders into the US than fly in from China or nearby countries.' And yes, there are many cruise boats operating between the US and Mexico, too. Most are fairly low-budget booze cruises.

Is the US doing any screening of land arrivals? Are they even screening air passengers for fever or passport stamps documenting their travel?

 

[Bravo]

Yes, where is @Bravo ? And @dotr ? And @JerseyGirl ? Come back!!

Hey there magz. I do pop in here a bit. I'm knee deep on Gannon's thread which is flying, trying to keep up. It was too much physically and mentally to do both. Thanks for thinking of me.

 

[margarita25]

_____________
Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

"As confirmed cases of a novel virus surge around the world with worrisome speed, all eyes have so far focused on a seafood market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the outbreak. But a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis.

Lucey says if the new data are accurate, the first human infections must have occurred in November 2019—if not earlier—because there is an incubation time between infection and symptoms surfacing. If so, the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December. “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace,” Lucey asserts.

Bin Cao of Capital Medical University, the corresponding author of The Lancet article and a pulmonary specialist, wrote in an email to ScienceInsider that he and his co-authors “appreciate the criticism” from Lucey."

“Now It seems clear that [the] seafood market is not the only origin of the virus,” he wrote. “But to be honest, we still do not know where the virus came from now.”

Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally
___________________

Interesting that the original article published in Science was dated 26 January 2020. The scientific community's skepticism of a single point origin of the seafood market was raised quite early. It's curious that China's researcher also admits the possibility.

The matter of origin is medically important for developing treatments and anticipating possible outbreaks.

I’ve been saying this as well since day one, that I’m leary of the market being the only and original source. Of course, I’m no professional on any of these matters.

WHO daily presser to start in 15 minutes, changed to 10:30 am start. Live feed has not begun, they have been late for the last few meetings.

ETA: 10:40 and we have live feed, not started yet. I'll do notes at the END of the presser vs. doing ETA updates today.

(Can someone please tell me who is responsible for captioning these conferences? They are terrible moo. They are not following proper transcribing/captioning guidelines, just sayin.)

America have been extremely lucky so far considering the size of the country and the amount of air travel and only 15 cases.

KNOCK ON WOOD

 

[Hatfield]

Ummm, no. The UK needs to take care of their own folks, or alternatively, charter and pay for the flight to get their citizens home.

Since when is it expected that the United States is the "nanny" for the entire world?

It seems like the UK doesn't want their sick folks or ones who could get sick/be carriers, to come home. That is the problem.

I understand and was just thinking about that special "containment box" that the US had on that plane. Im not sure if other countries have something similar or not.

Which does make me wonder why other countries are so slow to react to getting off their passengers. I have to wonder if they didnt want to "ruin" (infect) an entire plane to get their people home. I sure hope something like money concerns is not driving the delays for other countries like UK.

The response time to act has been awfully slow for things. We have seen so many examples now where we read about something and wonder why its taking so darn long for things to happen. The poor UK couple has been wanting off that ship for awhile now. They even appealed to Branson to ask him for help getting off the ship. And we saw how slow the WHO took to get boots on the ground. At least a week or more they talked about going and never got there till just this last weekend.

I realize everything is new and the darn "red tape" always has to be dealt with, but at some point, emergency procedures need to be enacted to bypass delays and get the task at hand done. All the delays has not helped IMO.

 

[Henry2326]

I don't think it's "out of control" at this point. That would require increasing person-to-person contact in numerous foreign countries. I believe person-to-person contact is very very low and those cases are being identified and strictly quarantined. I would include the cruise ship passengers as those with Chinese contact or travel.

Most of the foreign country cases have been people who were from China, or had visited Wuhan or the region. There may be limited first-contact infections, but we are not seeing uncontrolled outbreaks on foreign soil.

Singapore and Japan are commenting that its running through their communities with no trace back to China. Person to person transmission is present in both areas. Its just a matter of time.....give it a month.

 

[Henry2326]

I understand and was just thinking about that special "containment box" that the US had on that plane. Im not sure if other countries have something similar or not.

Which does make me wonder why other countries are so slow to react to getting off their passengers. I have to wonder if they didnt want to "ruin" (infect) an entire plane to get their people home. I sure hope something like money concerns is not driving the delays for other countries like UK.

The response time to act has been awfully slow for things. We have seen so many examples now where we read about something and wonder why its taking so darn long for things to happen. The poor UK couple has been wanting off that ship for awhile now. They even appealed to Branson to ask him for help getting off the ship. And we saw how slow the WHO took to get boot

This probably won't be popular, but going to say it anyway. IMO, countries have notified their citizens to get out of certain areas. I know they were on a boat, but.......they could have cancelled. They decided to go anyway. Sometimes you have to live, or not, with your decisions for survival. In turn, Japan could have handled this in much better way. Now they look quite insensitive.....IMO. Countries really have no responsibility to fly around the world and save people. Done now....

 

[MimosaMornings]

I understand and was just thinking about that special "containment box" that the US had on that plane. Im not sure if other countries have something similar or not.

Which does make me wonder why other countries are so slow to react to getting off their passengers. I have to wonder if they didnt want to "ruin" (infect) an entire plane to get their people home. I sure hope something like money concerns is not driving the delays for other countries like UK.

The response time to act has been awfully slow for things. We have seen so many examples now where we read about something and wonder why its taking so darn long for things to happen. The poor UK couple has been wanting off that ship for awhile now. They even appealed to Branson to ask him for help getting off the ship. And we saw how slow the WHO took to get boots on the ground. At least a week or more they talked about going and never got there till just this last weekend.

I realize everything is new and the darn "red tape" always has to be dealt with, but at some point, emergency procedures need to be enacted to bypass delays and get the task at hand done. All the delays has not helped IMO.

So where on the plane were the 14 people that tested positive?

 

[Amonet]

Wondering how each country tests for the virus and how many cases will go undetected or misdiagnosed. I just finished with walking pneumonia. If under the wrong circumstances (i.e. cruise), would I have been misdiagnosed and placed under quarantine and then actually come down with the virus?

At the moment someone with pneumonia who has had contact with someone who has tested positive, or who has traveled from/through one of a number of other countries in Asia, would likely be considered a possible case and would be placed in isolation and tested for the virus or to see if there's another cause for their pneumonia. As these people would be placed in isolation they would not be at risk of contracting the Covid-19 while waiting for testing.

The cruise ship is a different thing entirely. They don't seem to have initially had the testing capacity to test every passenger and to maintain that testing protocol. Then there's the problem that the ship was not a proper isolation/quarantine facility.

 

[Amonet]

99 cases from the ship yesterday, 88 today SMDH. Waiting to see if I have to eat crow as I'm still thinking no way in HECK are they gonna let folks off there even if negative as obvious to me they are getting infected on the ship. Sally and David Abel even commented that day before yesterday staff was on their hands and knees cover the air vents to their rooms hmmm...

today's WHO daily presser is at 10:30 am today.

88 new cases in Japan. They were found on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship off Yokohama, raising the ship’s total to 542.

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

ETA 65 of the 88 folks that tested positive had no symptoms

88 More People Tested Positive for New Coronavirus on Cruise Ship in Japan

I think the wisest thing for those from the ship who don't get repatriated would be for them to go into a quarantine facility for 14 days before being released into the population and to go home.

I don't think it would be a good idea to just let them walk off the ship and mix with the general population or get a normal flight out of Japan.

 

[Amonet]

Coronavirus is more fatal in men than women, major study suggests

Men have a higher risk of death than women if they contract the new strain of coronavirus, Chinese researchers have concluded, in the largest study on the outbreak to date. In research published Monday analysts studied 72,314 patient records from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, or CCDC. The records detailed 44,672 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, 16,186 suspected cases and 889 cases where the carrier of the coronavirus displayed no symptoms.

Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 more fatal in men, France warns of pandemic risk

I wonder why this is the case.

I've heard that in China, men are far more likely to smoke than women, something like 1% of women and about 50% of males? Maybe that contributes to the difference?

 

[Hatfield]

This probably won't be popular, but going to say it anyway. IMO, countries have notified their citizens to get out of certain areas. I know they were on a boat, but.......they could have cancelled. They decided to go anyway. Sometimes you have to live, or not, with your decisions for survival. In turn, Japan could have handled this in much better way. Now they look quite insensitive.....IMO. Countries really have no responsibility to fly around the world and save people. Done now....

Good points.

And just to add that I totally forgot about the flip side of this is that countries of course do not want infected passengers to arrive without really good procedures in place to avoid infecting others in their home countries. So there probably was some pressure to let Japan handle things until everyone is "cleared", which obviously has not happened yet and has been an awful surprise that instead of things getting better, they are getting worse and worse on the cruise ship with new cases each day. Nobody really foresaw that I would imagine.

The more I try to think through things, the more complex things get. Im sure all these types of things have been discussed at higher levels of each countries governments.

Imagine being a fly on the wall when discussing when/if/how to bring their people home from that ship. It would be a complex meeting with all these issues being discussed. When you start to think about it from that angle, the delays begin to make more sense.

 

[LaborDayRN]

Coronavirus: Brits stuck on Japan ship 'to fly home' as UK confirms rescue flight plans

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office is "working to organise" a flight back to the UK for British nationals on board a cruise ship quarantined off the coast of Japan due to coronavirus fears

Brits stuck on Japan coronavirus ship 'to fly home' as UK confirms rescue plans

About time too.

That's great news!

 

[dotr]

ETA
Dang, since i posted this cannot get that "Hotel California" Eagles song out of my head, except the words now sound to me like " Welcome to the Hotel Coronavirus"

"Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
'Relax' said the night man,
'We are programmed to receive.
You can check out any time you like,
But you can never leave!'''

China says coronavirus infections declining but experts say many cases may be undetected
U.K. health officials turn hotel at Heathrow Airport into quarantine center
''Health authorities in the U.K. have taken over a hotel right next to London's Heathrow Airport to use as a quarantine center for anyone returning to the country deemed at risk of the new coronavirus disease.

The Holiday Inn London - Heathrow Ariel, seen here in a handout photo, was block-booked by British authorities on February 17 to use as a quarantine site for people considered at risk of the new coronavirus illness. Holiday Inn
The Holiday Inn has been block-booked by the Department of Health and all guests transferred to other hotels owned by the chain in the area. There was no indication as of Tuesday that anyone had been moved into the facility for monitoring or testing, but Britain's government was mulling evacuation flights for dozens of nationals stuck on the coronavirus-stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined in Japan, and possibly another evacuation flight for passengers who disembarked this week in Cambodia from another cruise.

As of Monday, of the 4,501 people tested in the U.K., only nine had been confirmed as cases of the COVID-19 disease.

The booking website for the Holiday Inn London - Heathrow Ariel showed no rooms available for public booking until mid-March.''

 

[JerseyGirl]

Nearly 100 cases of human-to-human spread outside China

The are 92 cases in 12 countries outside China of human-to-human spread of the coronavirus, the World Health Organization chief has said.

“But we don’t have data to make a meaningful comparison to China cases,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus clarified.

Speaking at a press conference, he added:

We have not seen sustained local transmission of coronavirus except in specific circumstances like the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Dr Mike Ryan, director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, said “clearly there has been more transmission than expected” on the cruise ship.

He said Japanese authorities are adjusting to reality and taking necessary public health measures to evacuate people and deal with their follow up.

Coronavirus: Japan to trial HIV antiretroviral drugs on patients – latest news

 

[Tony1902]

May I also suggest, along with not touching your face, putting your fingers in your mouth, eyes, nose—-your ears.
Unless I am misunderstanding, the sneezing and coughing release particulate matters that can affect any orifice and stay on surfaces and in the air for some time. I also believe a 14 day isolation is not enough. More like month. IMO

 

[JerseyGirl]

Dozens more countries will soon be able to test for coronavirus

By the end of this week, 40 countries in Africa and 29 in the Americas are expected to have the ability to detect the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said today during a press briefing.

Many countries had been sending samples to others for testing, which can take days. Now, they’ll be able to get results themselves within 24 to 48 hours, he said.

WHO has also sent personal protective equipment to 21 countries and is preparing to send it to another 106 in the comings weeks, Tedros said.

Coronavirus news and live updates: Cases jump around the world - CNN

 

[Hatfield]

So where on the plane were the 14 people that tested positive?

Check out the large "Containment Box" inside the large plane in link below. Im not sure who was put in there but I think the idea was that any confirmed cases would be put in that box for the flight home which hopefully separated known infectees from people that didnt have it yet.

14 Americans who got the coronavirus from the quarantined cruise ship in Japan were flown home in an 'isolation box' at the back of the plane

 

[Amonet]

First coronavirus patient had NO connection to Wuhan seafood market - so did the disease start elsewhere?

The first patient diagnosed with the novel coronavirushas been reported to be a bed-bound pensioner who had no connection to a food market in Wuhan where Beijing's officials say the outbreak began.

First coronavirus patient had NO connection to Wuhan seafood market | Daily Mail Online

If the man was bedbound, you wouldn't expect him to have been the index case in his family home, you'd expect that someone else would have to pass it to him.

Just because no one else in his family tested positive, doesn't mean they didn't have a milder case and pass it onto him, and never tested positive because they had milder cases that had cleared by the time he got sick/and because there was no testing for the virus at that point.

Does he have some kind of connection to the place that does the infectious disease work? Then we might have a smoking gun, but if there isn't a definitive connection there and some way to entirely rule out the seafood market, there's no smoking gun.

 

[MimosaMornings]

Check out the large "Containment Box" inside the large plane in link below. Im not sure who was put in there but I think the idea was that any confirmed cases would be put in that box for the flight home which hopefully separated known infectees from people that didnt have it yet.

14 Americans who got the coronavirus from the quarantined cruise ship in Japan were flown home in an 'isolation box' at the back of the plane

Thank you @Hatfield
I had seen plastic sheets mentioned and saw a picture of the “box” but had not seen confirmation via msm. Appreciate you posting the article.