Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #5

[Herat]

2/18 WHO Daily Presser notes Part 1 of 2


Dr. Tetras – Today I want to talk first about Syria vs. COVID. Out of 550 facilities, only ½ are operational. Attacks on the hospitals are against international law.…(more) …. Back to COVID

72,528 cases, 1,850 deaths. In past 24 1,800 new cases. Outside China, now 804 cases in 24 countries with 3 deaths. 110 new cases outside China, 99 on Princess. 92 cases outside China of human to human transmission. We don’t have enough cases outside China to discuss severity or fatality rates. To date, we have not seen localized sustained transmission (e.d. to be able to call it a pandemic) except like Princess. I spoke with Singapore yesterday, and please with their efforts to find every transmission, and they have not found any evidence of community transmission. I also talked to Malesia health director about Westerdam and reparations. This signals for all countries to be ready for the arrival of the virus. Many countries are preparing, we have shipped PPE to 21 countries, and 106 in coming weeks. By the end of the week, 40 countries in Africa and 21 in the Americas will have the ability to detect the virus, vs. sending to other countries to prevent global crisis.

Q&A

Re Princess transmission, how possible the spread we have seen? The situation has evolved, and authorities in Japan revisiting the original decision to group and isolate… situation has changed, there is more transmission on the ship than we expected. Japan is adjusting to that reality now, and Japan officials are now working with other countries to evacuate and deal with follow-up in a different way. Its easy to look back and say it should have been done in a different way. It’s clear that there are some environments where the virus can spread, and cruise ships and other particular environments that disease can spread. Unfortunate event and we trust that the countries and the Japanese will follow up in the appropriate way to get care or reintegrated into the community. It will be very important to study this particular event to see what the issues are that led to transmission on the ship.

Re recent measures of Beijing under quarantine? Currently evaluations are based on modeling. We look at the scenario if nothing was done (e.d. those pessimistic numbers we have seen on those threads, that’s what these are..a baseline). Models have shown that movement restriction has delayed by 2 or 3 days in China and 2-3 weeks outside of China. So based on this, if those measures are implemented.. delays the peak and give more time to treat the problem. We are finding in some studies that it’s 19 days from symptoms to when people are completely cleared of the virus.

You mentioned that some countries outside of China are not providing you data, what’s the reason behind that? Also, the modelling that you are doing, is that modelling from China or outside China? We fully recognize that all countries are under duress and their primary responsibility is to their own citizens and to do the public health challenge that they face. We ask that they do share with us the core data that we need. And I would say that it hasn’t been smooth sailing with any country so far because we’ve had to request a number of countries to speed up their data sharing. This is not due to a lack of transparency but this has been through the urgency and the difficulties of gathering data, collating data and then sharing it outside a country. And in some cases they are data protection issues, privacy issues with long lists that are individualized data, and logistic issues. We are very pleased in general. We do want to see more and more data on community studies, hospital and transmission info like on the Princess and we want to see those investigations early so that we can learn and manage in other circumstances in the coming days and weeks to help us as a global agency to give the best possible advice and evidence to countries.

Answer cont’d/he changed subject.. And to touch back on Beijing, I think if you look at what’s happening in Wuhan the government has spent a number of weeks suppressing the virus and you saw the numbers dropped away and now they have engaged in door to door surveillance – this is a very good public health practice. We like to see progressive implementation of public health measures. So the first objective in Wuhan was to contain the virus at the epicenter and do much more active surveillance. While doing that surveillance they don’t want the virus returning to other places. Beijing is the central point in the country for a place where many many workers return to. While they are putting out the fire in one place, they don’t want the fire to start somewhere else. So they are taking very directed measures to ensure the people returning to Beijing are observed and monitored. You can argue whether those measures are excessive or restrictive, but there’s a lot at stake here in terms of public health not only in China, but of all people of the world. So what we like to see is well thought out, evidence base public health measures that pays respect to individuals liberty and human rights And finding that balance is sometimes difficult. Right now, the strategic and tactical approach in China is the right one, as is the approach in Singapore. Right now we are seeing more and more countries are having well planned and directed operations to detect this virus, contain it, and slow it down. We want all countries to take that approach in the coming days and weeks.

A – the modelling, that is not from the WHO, is that is coming from expert network we have and we meet on a weekly basis with a number of modelling groups across the world and those groups are publishing their data and we have some preprint articles (e.d. like has been posted here at WS) Just note of caution that modelling is based on assumptions, and modelling is better when you have more data into the model. So soon we will have more robust modelling….

DANG IT! I hit wrong button and it has ended, so I don’t have closed captions to help me transcribe anymore.. waiting for it to be reuploaded to continue.

I’m nominating Dr Tedros Ghebreyseus for a Nobel Peace Prize for 2020.

 

[Amonet]

John Coates, the head of an IOC inspection team, was asked by a CNN reporter if he was 100% confident that the Tokyo Olympics would go on as scheduled and open on July 24.

“Yes,” he replied.

Coates talked positively about keeping a close watch on Chinese athletes, and talked optimistically about their eventual presence in Tokyo, where they would probably field a team of 600 athletes — one of the largest delegations.

“We continue also to monitor, particularly the Chinese that will be coming here,” Coates said. “You'll find that the Chinese teams are mostly out of China. That's the athletes and officials.”

He didn't offer any specific numbers.

Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO chief of emergencies, said that WHO only offers technical advice and it's up to the IOC and organizers to make decisions related to the Olympics. “We have not offered advice to the IOC for the Olympics one way or another,” he said. "And neither would we. That's not the role of WHO to call off — or not call off — any event. It is the role of WHO to offer technical advice."

No 'Plan B' for Olympics; questions over Chinese presence

Qualifying events discussed here: Coronavirus update: WHO backs Tokyo 2020, China Golf Open postponed, Gymnastics World Cup and more | SportBusiness

I don't think there is so much risk with the Chinese athletes as with how not all cases outside China have come direct from China but from other transport links or small local clusters.

I would think that each sport's team of people from China for the Olympics would be separated out from the general population in a kind of quarantine for some time before they actually travel to Japan for the Olympics.

In my mind, it's the non-participants possibly carrying Covid-19 that would be a greater concern.

I hope the whole thing will settle down, cases will keep declining in China, the small clusters outside of China can be contained, and no country ends up with out of control 'wild' spread.

It's not what we do know that's bothering me (the cases that are being tracked) but what we don't know that bothers me .... possible clusters developing in one or more countries that gets as bad as Wuhan's outbreak before the country's health services and government even realise it's happening.

 

[What if...]

Per Google "Olympics have been canceled five times in the past. In 1916, the Summer Olympics scheduled for Berlin, Germany, were canceled due to World War I. Then, thanks to World War II, the 1940 Winter and Summer Olympics and the 1944 Winter and Summer Olympics were canceled"

Pfft, I'll put up $20 bet that there is going to be a change in folks thinking they can walk off the dock from the Princess this week. The first folks off the ship will be those from Japan supposedly today. Foreigners.... later this week. They just did the last half of the ship testing yesterday and day before. I think something will happen and one twitter person is not going to like that he cannot tour the city as planned. Especially listening to the WHO update today. He said Japan changed plans, and that countries were taking care of their citizens. My bet, they will be walking directly into Japan reisolation vs. let loose.

And perhaps yet another round of quarantine upon arriving back home?

(and I’ll put down $20 if you can find anyone to take us up on that bet!)

 

[dixiegirl1035]

 

[KALI]

Poor Syria does not need more suffering

2/18 WHO Daily Presser notes Part 1 of 2


Dr. Tetras – Today I want to talk first about Syria vs. COVID. Out of 550 facilities, only ½ are operational. Attacks on the hospitals are against international law.…(more) …. Back to COVID

72,528 cases, 1,850 deaths. In past 24 1,800 new cases. Outside China, now 804 cases in 24 countries with 3 deaths. 110 new cases outside China, 99 on Princess. 92 cases outside China of human to human transmission. We don’t have enough cases outside China to discuss severity or fatality rates. To date, we have not seen localized sustained transmission (e.d. to be able to call it a pandemic) except like Princess. I spoke with Singapore yesterday, and please with their efforts to find every transmission, and they have not found any evidence of community transmission. I also talked to Malesia health director about Westerdam and reparations. This signals for all countries to be ready for the arrival of the virus. Many countries are preparing, we have shipped PPE to 21 countries, and 106 in coming weeks. By the end of the week, 40 countries in Africa and 21 in the Americas will have the ability to detect the virus, vs. sending to other countries to prevent global crisis.

Q&A

Re Princess transmission, how possible the spread we have seen? The situation has evolved, and authorities in Japan revisiting the original decision to group and isolate… situation has changed, there is more transmission on the ship than we expected. Japan is adjusting to that reality now, and Japan officials are now working with other countries to evacuate and deal with follow-up in a different way. Its easy to look back and say it should have been done in a different way. It’s clear that there are some environments where the virus can spread, and cruise ships and other particular environments that disease can spread. Unfortunate event and we trust that the countries and the Japanese will follow up in the appropriate way to get care or reintegrated into the community. It will be very important to study this particular event to see what the issues are that led to transmission on the ship.

Re recent measures of Beijing under quarantine? Currently evaluations are based on modeling. We look at the scenario if nothing was done (e.d. those pessimistic numbers we have seen on those threads, that’s what these are..a baseline). Models have shown that movement restriction has delayed by 2 or 3 days in China and 2-3 weeks outside of China. So based on this, if those measures are implemented.. delays the peak and give more time to treat the problem. We are finding in some studies that it’s 19 days from symptoms to when people are completely cleared of the virus.

You mentioned that some countries outside of China are not providing you data, what’s the reason behind that? Also, the modelling that you are doing, is that modelling from China or outside China? We fully recognize that all countries are under duress and their primary responsibility is to their own citizens and to do the public health challenge that they face. We ask that they do share with us the core data that we need. And I would say that it hasn’t been smooth sailing with any country so far because we’ve had to request a number of countries to speed up their data sharing. This is not due to a lack of transparency but this has been through the urgency and the difficulties of gathering data, collating data and then sharing it outside a country. And in some cases they are data protection issues, privacy issues with long lists that are individualized data, and logistic issues. We are very pleased in general. We do want to see more and more data on community studies, hospital and transmission info like on the Princess and we want to see those investigations early so that we can learn and manage in other circumstances in the coming days and weeks to help us as a global agency to give the best possible advice and evidence to countries.

Answer cont’d/he changed subject.. And to touch back on Beijing, I think if you look at what’s happening in Wuhan the government has spent a number of weeks suppressing the virus and you saw the numbers dropped away and now they have engaged in door to door surveillance – this is a very good public health practice. We like to see progressive implementation of public health measures. So the first objective in Wuhan was to contain the virus at the epicenter and do much more active surveillance. While doing that surveillance they don’t want the virus returning to other places. Beijing is the central point in the country for a place where many many workers return to. While they are putting out the fire in one place, they don’t want the fire to start somewhere else. So they are taking very directed measures to ensure the people returning to Beijing are observed and monitored. You can argue whether those measures are excessive or restrictive, but there’s a lot at stake here in terms of public health not only in China, but of all people of the world. So what we like to see is well thought out, evidence base public health measures that pays respect to individuals liberty and human rights And finding that balance is sometimes difficult. Right now, the strategic and tactical approach in China is the right one, as is the approach in Singapore. Right now we are seeing more and more countries are having well planned and directed operations to detect this virus, contain it, and slow it down. We want all countries to take that approach in the coming days and weeks.

A – the modelling, that is not from the WHO, is that is coming from expert network we have and we meet on a weekly basis with a number of modelling groups across the world and those groups are publishing their data and we have some preprint articles (e.d. like has been posted here at WS) Just note of caution that modelling is based on assumptions, and modelling is better when you have more data into the model. So soon we will have more robust modelling….

DANG IT! I hit wrong button and it has ended, so I don’t have closed captions to help me transcribe anymore.. waiting for it to be reuploaded to continue.

 

[KALI]

We have game plans and contingencies. Also spies and surveillance.

How could they of been prepared before anybody knew anything ?

That’s the whole point with global travel it had already started to spread before anybody knew anything about it.


IMO

 

[KALI]

Yep. I knew they would call in the military. However. Now to worry about them getting sick as well.

China is calling out its military to reinforce exhausted health workers and enforce strict new quarantine measures imposed upon the epicentre of the Covid-19 virus outbreak as a seventh medical worker dies from the disease.

On Tuesday, Wuhan’s health bureau announced hospital director Liu Zhiming died from coronavirus despite “all out” attempts to save him.

He is the seventh healthworker to die among the more than 1,700 doctors and nurses who have become sick.
‘Scary’ sign China is lying about virus

 

[Ruthbullock]

York coronavirus patients: update issued
Not a lot of new information in this article, but comforting to know the people released from hospital in the UK had two negative tests before release- here’s hoping it’s enough.

 

[Tadpole12]

Whaaaatt
Rewind (WHO PC)
13:45

“In the past 24 hours, China has reported 1800 new cases both clinically and lab confirmed cases.”




Coronavirus outbreak: WHO reports 92 cases of human-to-human spread outside China | FULL

—-

ETA: How many new cases of the flu are reported per day in China and other countries I wonder.

some studies, 19 days (almost 20 days) from onset of symptoms to when people are cleared, non contagious.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

We have game plans and contingencies. Also spies and surveillance.

I think part of it is that we expect an attempt at biological warfare someday, so preparations have been made. I don’t like to think about it. But that’s part of what our taxes pay for - others to think about it.

 

[Medstudies]

Yep. I knew they would call in the military. However. Now to worry about them getting sick as well.

Yep, and look, this is just another heartbreak on this unfolding tragedy:
(From the prior article)
...
“One Singapore study put part of the blame for this on poorly-fitted N95 medical masks. And mistakes made by over-fatigued specialist carers contributed heavily to the remainder.

During the 2014 ebola breakout, health workers were some 21 to 32 times more likely to become infected with the haemorrhagic disease than the population they worked within.

It decimated medical staff in Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Now, it seems Covid-19 is killing carers.”

Now for a COVID19 gif...

 

[dixiegirl1035]

 

[gregjrichards]

California woman claims her husband is the 'high risk' Diamond Princess evacuee who was rushed into a biocontainment unit when he arrived in the US - and says he has now tested positive for coronavirus

California woman tells of husband diagnosed with coronavirus just a day after they were evacuated | Daily Mail Online

 

[gregjrichards]

Utah couple separated by coronavirus as she is evacuated to the US from the Diamond Princess cruise ship while her infected husband is trapped in Japanese hospital

Utah couple separated by coronavirus as he is trapped in Japanese hospital | Daily Mail Online

What a nightmare for this couple.

 

[ARE]

Very fascinating. Thanks for sharing.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

California woman claims her husband is the 'high risk' Diamond Princess evacuee who was rushed into a biocontainment unit when he arrived in the US - and says he has now tested positive for coronavirus

California woman tells of husband diagnosed with coronavirus just a day after they were evacuated | Daily Mail Online

Bless her heart, she's been under so much stress. She was the one that was blasting on social and mainstream media and telling everybody that would listen about how upset she was that people who were positive were on the plane with her. She had told folks that her and her husband were negative and thrown on the plane with 14 people who were positive. How she couched that on mainstream media interview, I wish I could find that interview and post it.. She was wanting to get to the bottom of it and demanded the state department answer questions as to why they let that happen. (The government knew after they were on the bus that her husband was positive, but she did not know so she was all over social media about it. )

She's doing some quick footwork now. I hope her husband with Guillain-Barre syndrome is feeling very lucky they were one of the positive patients flown back. He didn't get the virus from the plane passengers. He was one of the already inflected patients that was taken on the flight.

 

[Pi Thoughts]

I posted yesterday about 780 million people in China under various travel restrictions. That is almost 50% of their population and 10% of the worlds population...extraordinary figures.

(CNN) – More than 780 million people across China, are still living under various forms of travel restrictions
as authorities try to contain the novel coronavirus.
This is nearly half the country’s population.
China: Over 780 Million Living Under Restrictions - WLTZ

In 2020, it is expected to be around 7.8 billion
world population in 2020 - Bing

 

[Herat]

The US is better prepared for any virus that occurs or will occur in the future. The United States is prepared because it is not a case of IF but WHEN a worldwide epidemic will occur.

It isn’t “luck” it is preparedness

To mention just a few things:

Universal Precautions in hospitals, clinics, ambulance, etc. (compared to the medics who were not even wearing masks when evacuating sick passengers off Diamond Princess, for example)

Proper sanitation systems and safe drinking water

Thermal temperature scanning at major SS airports

Health inspections of restaurants and food manufacturing facilities

Regular practice drills for emergency workers and hospital personnel dealing with epidemic situations

Training for all medical personnel and community resource leaders

EXACTLY

It’s called responsible leadership and preparation, preparation, preparation.

Our hospital had several Ebola drills during the months of that large outbreak. You learn something from every drill

 

[Herat]

Sounds like she was gunning for a lawsuit

 

[dixiegirl1035]

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
U.S. CDC says Japan's quarantine of cruise ship "may not have been sufficient to prevent transmission among individuals on the ship"
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
NEW: U.S. CDC says people who remain on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan are not allowed to return to the U.S. for at least 14 days