Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #5

[JerseyGirl]

British Airways has announced a further round of flight cancellations. A spokesperson for the airline said: “In line with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s continued advice against all but essential travel to mainland China, we are cancelling flights to and from Beijing and Shanghai until April 17 2020. We continue to fly to and from Hong Kong. We will keep the situation under review.”

Coronavirus: South Korean city faces 'unprecedented crisis' after surge in cases – latest news

 

[JerseyGirl]

Japan reports 12 new cases of novel coronavirus

... including two government officials who worked onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Both of the officials helped with administrative work onboard.

The remaining 10 new cases originated on land. Among the cases on land is one taxi driver in Okinawa who drove a tourist from the Diamond Princess and has now tested positive.

Coronavirus news and live updates: Two Diamond Princess passengers die - CNN

 

[JerseyGirl]

Hospitals across the US prepare for coronavirus outbreak to become global pandemic

The virus is proving to be far more contagious than the flu, having spread from 300 people in mid-January to more than 75,700 as of Thursday morning.

 

[Medstudies]

Thailand unhappy with Israel’s entry ban over coronavirus concerns

Thailand’s government is scrambling to cope with new travel restrictions after Israel banned the citizens of Thailand and three other Asian countries and territories from entering over concerns about a new virus.

Israel announced it was refusing entry to all foreign nationals who had traveled to Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong and Macau during the past 14 days. Israeli citizens and residents will be isolated at home for 14 days after their return from areas at risk.

The consequences for Thailand could be more substantial. About 25,000 Thai workers are employed in Israel, mostly in the agricultural sector.

I’m surprised travel to Japan is not included, under the circumstances.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Coronavirus in N Korea could be 'much more lethal' than in China

The official Rodong Sinmun newspaper, citing the government, insisted there were no confirmed cases so far in North Korea, a nation of 25 million. WHO backed that statement, with a senior official telling reporters in Geneva "there are no signals ... no indications" of coronavirus in North Korea.

One South Korean media outlet that covers North Korea says that several people who exhibited symptoms similar to the coronavirus infection have died in recent days. Those reports could not be independently confirmed.

Meanwhile, more than 200 cases have been reported in the two Chinese provinces bordering North Korea.

The relative frequency of Chinese visitors entering through this border, both legally and illegally, and Beijing's initial slow response to raise the alarm, have compounded fears the virus may have spread to North Korea.

This undated picture released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on February 15 shows people in protective suits spraying disinfectant at an undisclosed location in North Korea, amid concerns over the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak [AFP]

 

[Medstudies]

'Bureaucrats were in charge': Japanese doctor blasts ship quarantine

'Bureaucrats were in charge': Japanese doctor blasts ship quarantine

TOKYO (Reuters) - A Japanese infectious disease specialist has castigated his government’s handling of quarantine on a coronavirus-stricken cruise ship, saying it was run by “bureaucrats” who stoked the crisis by failing to follow basic protocols.

Very interesting video.....and also very scary! He talks about the conditions he found on the Diamond Princess.

It’s like China 2.0

I suppose he will “only” be sanctioned for speaking out against the Japanese governments epic fail, as opposed to being “detained”.

I’m not really going to quibble over the difference. Because ultimately each government is going to extraordinary lengths to silence/*discredit whistleblowers.

go figure: Iran of all places, seems to be the most forthcoming.

(and yes I’m being a factious, China’s recorded human rights abuse is unconscionable.)

*edit:
“The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.”
Winston Churchill

 

[Tadpole12]

Oh wow. That video is quite something.

Sci-fi futuristic capitalistic Evita Peron.
That was off-putting.

 

[Henry2326]

Thousands of Americans voluntarily self-quarantine after returning from China

Many states monitoring travelers from China who have agreed to lie low for a few weeks out of an abundance of caution:

California - there are more than 5,400 such people in the state.

Washington - 745 people have been asked to self-quarantine.

Georgia - health officials identified about 200 travelers.

Michigan - more than 300 people were referred for monitoring.

Virginia - 138 residents are being monitored. "They were asked to remain at home and practice social distancing." Social distancing means avoiding public transportation (including taxis and ride-sharing) and large public gatherings and staying about 6 feet away from others.

Iowa - a total of 27 people are under voluntary self-quarantine

North Dakota - has 10 under voluntary self-quarantine.

Alabama - monitoring travelers, declined to provide exact numbers, which change daily as passengers continue to arrive home or finish their 14-day self-quarantine periods.

Indiana - monitoring travelers, declined to provide exact numbers, which change daily as passengers continue to arrive home or finish their 14-day self-quarantine periods.

Massachusetts - monitoring travelers, declined to provide exact numbers, which change daily as passengers continue to arrive home or finish their 14-day self-quarantine periods.

Texas - monitoring travelers, declined to provide exact numbers, which change daily as passengers continue to arrive home or finish their 14-day self-quarantine periods.

___

Infectious disease experts say that while quarantines can help slow the spread of a virus, they can't necessarily stop it from spreading entirely.

"It's like Swiss cheese," said Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group in Rochester, Minnesota.

"It is going to leak out. You're just trying to prevent the tidal waves."

Thank you for this.....I knew it was a big risk but really didn't imagine it was this high. Based on what we know from other countries, at least several of these are carriers. I was hoping the U.S. could postpone until we get to summer.....but not sure we will get that luxury........

 

[Henry2326]

Coronavirus in N Korea could be 'much more lethal' than in China

The official Rodong Sinmun newspaper, citing the government, insisted there were no confirmed cases so far in North Korea, a nation of 25 million. WHO backed that statement, with a senior official telling reporters in Geneva "there are no signals ... no indications" of coronavirus in North Korea.

One South Korean media outlet that covers North Korea says that several people who exhibited symptoms similar to the coronavirus infection have died in recent days. Those reports could not be independently confirmed.

Meanwhile, more than 200 cases have been reported in the two Chinese provinces bordering North Korea.

The relative frequency of Chinese visitors entering through this border, both legally and illegally, and Beijing's initial slow response to raise the alarm, have compounded fears the virus may have spread to North Korea.

This undated picture released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on February 15 shows people in protective suits spraying disinfectant at an undisclosed location in North Korea, amid concerns over the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak [AFP]

Have we seen anything that says spraying disinfectant has any value????

 

[Medstudies]

Sci-fi futuristic capitalistic Evita Peron.
That was off-putting.

Seriously, that was some masterful spin-doctoring. I muted and could practically hear Madonna singing “Don’t Cry for Me Argentina”.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

OK, I was ignorant in what was noted about asymptomatics not being reported so I went down the rabbit hole last night to better educate myself to keep up with all this reporting mess. Wanted to share my notes I made while doing so in case anyone else would care to see the documentation of what others here know, but I did not. Here goes... as I learned much more and have more questions and comments that I'll do after I post these notes.

Summary – Part 1 of 2 - Info learned MOO re reporting in China

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 is Lancet article I’m getting info below from.


This study was a descriptive, exploratory analysis of all cases of COVID-19 diagnosed nationwide in China as of the end of February 11, 2020.


By categorizing COVID-19 as a Class B notifiable disease, Chinese law required all cases to be immediately reported to China’s Infectious Disease Information System. Entry of each case into the system was performed by local epidemiologists and public health workers who investigated and collected information on possible exposures. All data contained in all COVID-19 case records in the Infectious Disease Information System through the end of February 11, 2020 were extracted from the system as a single dataset. No sampling was done to achieve a predetermined study size and no eligibility criteria were used—all cases were included. (e.d. since the February Lancet article uses the same classifications we have seen in media)


Cases were categorized as confirmed, suspected, clinically diagnosed (Hubei Province only), or asymptomatic. Confirmed cases were diagnosed based on positive viral nucleic acid test results on throat swab samples (some samples were tested retrospectively).(e.d. not said here, but had to also have symptoms) Suspected cases were diagnosed clinically based on symptoms and exposures. Clinically diagnosed cases were suspected cases with lung imaging features consistent with coronavirus pneumonia. Asymptomatic cases were diagnosed based on positive viral nucleic acid test results but without any COVID-19 symptoms (e.g., fever, dry cough). . (e.d. This February Lancet article uses the same classifications we have seen in media, and clinicians AND epidemiologist were involved in classifying all these cases)


The severity of symptoms variable was categorized as mild, severe, or critical. Mild included non-pneumonia and mild pneumonia cases. Severe was characterized by dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% within 24–48 hours. Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure. (e.d. these breakouts were done ONLY for the confirmed cases)


A total of 72,314 unique records were extracted and data from all records were included in the analysis. Thus, all 72,314 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 as of February 11, 2020, were included in the analysis. Among them, 44,672 cases (61.8%) were confirmed, 16,186 cases (22.4%) were suspected, 10,567 cases (14.6%) were clinically diagnosed, and 889 cases (1.2%) were asymptomatic.


------------------------


OK, take a look at the Johns Hopkins site for China on February 11 (when the data was pulled for the study) below. It shows total on February 11th there were 44,300, which is right about the total of the above 44,672 confirmed. OK, so Johns Hopkins looks like they are using at that time just 62% of the Chinese total cases, the ones above that were in the category of Confirmed.


Then take a look at Johns Hopkins number 2 days later when the clinically diagnosed cases started being added and the graph jumps. The total on February 13th Johns Hopkins site is then 59,800… which is = the 44,672 confirmed cases category (61.8% of cases on Feb 11) + 10,567 clinically diagnosed category (14.6% of cases on Feb 11) + throw in 4,561 for two days worth of new confirmed and clinically diagnosed from Jan 11 to 13th. (e.d. it all appears adding up at this time – yet keep in mind that mild/severe/critical designations are ONLY done within the confirmed cases groupings, and not the clinically diagnosed, suspected and asymptomatic cases. Is this still true to date in reports we see? Dunno, but significant to consider later in these posts nonetheless).


What they are NOT and have not been reporting are KNOWN cases, and reported to their health authorities as COVID-19, in the category that was the large group of 16,186/22.4% percent of the Suspected cases that were diagnosed clinically based on symptoms and contact tracing exposures of a known case or environment - and 889/1.2% of the asymptomatic cases as of February 11th.



Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS


Remember that number and percentage (24%) of suspected cases for the Part 2 post coming…

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Summary – Part 2 of 2 - Info learned MOO re reporting in China

Now more on the Suspected cases, which were diagnosed clinically based on symptoms and contact tracing to exposure to a known case or environment. Remember from last post that as of February 11th, this Suspected cases group had 16,186/22.4% of all cases in the Lancet report of 72,314. So, I came across graphs in attachment of the Lancet article that had the numbers of confirmed/suspected/clinically diagnosed broken out by dates. Take a look and see if you see what I see to form your opinion, I’ll MOO below.





Moo, it looks like there were folks that for over a month were suspected, had never had a test or an xray or a test, yet had symptoms and had traced contact exposure to an individual or environment. It also shows that the green group is getting bigger and bigger each day, while the confirmed number is decreasing. Is this continuing, and those aren’t in the figures submitted to WHO etc therefore not captured until they have the capabilities? My question is, when are those suspected going to move to clinically diagnosed or confirmed?

I have been assuming that unless you had bad symptoms, that they would not test you. (we saw those videos of folks being turned away before the media guy was arrested and went poof). Looking at all these numbers of 16,186/22.4% suspected and only 889/1.2% asymptomatic but positive test, it appears this is right. My MOO is that perhaps also those 889/1.2% of the cases were health care workers. IOW, is there is a chitload of folks in China that have had this disease that are being monitored at home or in hospital #6 and the other hospital/arena area and may never get into confirmed or clinically ill group to be documented to WHO because they aren’t severe enough to be tested with the limited numbers of kits, or limited number of CAT scan machines?

So.. are they following WHO guidelines as to “what the definition of a case is” as their healthcare system is coding them ALL as COVID-19 cases. But not being tracked anywhere as a daily compilation, although suspected does appear each day on Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline If these are daily numbers, they should be getting larger and larger each day if they are following the trend of the green area on the previous post. Dunno, are they “at this moment in time” stats?



OK, so now that's done, I have to go back to last night where Greg and Henry posted that there is going to be ANOTHER change. Perhaps now I'll better understand what they are going to change now lol.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

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Coronavirus outbreak: World Health Organization to give update as new cases drop below 400 | LIVE

The World Health Organization (WHO) is expected to provide an update on COVID-19 a day after Japan reported two former passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship died from the virus. The two elderly passengers had been taken off the ship because they were infected with the virus. They were the first fatalities from the virus-stricken vessel. China has confirmed there were 394 new confirmed cases, down sharply from the 1,749 reported just a day earlier.

*cough cough cough cough cough* based on this header vs. what I've just shown in the previous two posts above. And those are probably growing exponentially now MOO. Nope, not correct. If they don't test for virus or don't test by xray the cases don't exist? pffffft

Oh yeah, I haven't even considered the new change that was mentioned last night.. haven't had time to look at.

 

[JerseyGirl]

World Health Organization officials are holding a press conference Thursday to update the public on the coronavirus outbreak, which has infected more than 75,700 and killed at least 2,130 so far.

The stream is slated to start at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Watch: World Health Organization holds press conference on the coronavirus outbreak

 

[JerseyGirl]

According to Associated Press, the latest figures provided by each government’s health authority as of Thursday in Beijing are:

Mainland China: 2,118 deaths among 74,576 cases, mostly in the central province of Hubei
Hong Kong: 65 cases, 2 deaths
Macao: 10
Japan: 727 cases, including 634 from a cruise ship docked in Yokohama, 3 deaths
Singapore: 84
South Korea: 51, 1 death
Thailand: 35
Taiwan: 24 cases, 1 death
Malaysia: 22
Vietnam: 16
Germany: 16
United States: 15 cases; separately, 1 U.S. citizen died in China
Australia: 14
France: 12 cases, 1 death
United Kingdom: 9
United Arab Emirates: 9
Canada: 8
_Iran: 5 cases, 2 deaths
Philippines: 3 cases, 1 death
India: 3
Italy: 3
Russia: 2
Spain: 2
Belgium: 1
Nepal: 1
Sri Lanka: 1
Sweden: 1
Cambodia: 1
Finland: 1
Egypt: 1

Coronavirus: South Korean city faces 'unprecedented crisis' after surge in cases – latest news

 

[gregjrichards]

**Warning Distressing Content & images at link**

Chinese officials 'round up and execute villagers' pets to stop the spread of coronavirus' despite WHO experts saying the disease cannot be spread to animals

Chinese officials continue to beat dogs to death in the name of fighting coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

 

[JerseyGirl]

Coronavirus-positive Americans from cruise in Japan must meet these 3 criteria to return home

US citizens who were on board the Diamond Princess cruise and tested positive for the novel coronavirus must be cleared per US guidelines before returning home, according to letters sent by the US embassy in Tokyo to these passengers.

In order to be eligible to board a US-bound flight, three key criteria must be met:

1. Any fever must have resolved in the absence of medication.
2. There must also be an improvement in any signs and symptoms of illness.
3. Patients must test negative on two sets of nasal and throat swabs 24 hours apart.

This is in line with existing guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on when to release patients from isolation in hospitals.

"You will not be cleared to travel simply by waiting 14 days,” the embassy specified. Fourteen days is the upper estimate of the virus’ incubation period.

After submitting test results to the CDC, passengers must wait to receive notification by a US embassy representative notifying them they are cleared to fly to the US.


Coronavirus news and live updates: Two Diamond Princess passengers die - CNN

 

[gregjrichards]

Coronavirus cruise ship Diamond Princess will be back in service with another group of tourists on April 29 after it has been 'fully sanitized', its owners reveal

Coronavirus cruise ship Diamond Princess will be back in service in April after 'fully sanitized' | Daily Mail Online

Is anyone going to book?

 

[Deleted member 158085]

**Warning Distressing Content & images at link**

Chinese officials 'round up and execute villagers' pets to stop the spread of coronavirus' despite WHO experts saying the disease cannot be spread to animals

Chinese officials continue to beat dogs to death in the name of fighting coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

I've been burned by the DM before. Waiting for others to report before getting upset.

 

[JerseyGirl]

US health experts are part of the team investigating coronavirus outbreak in China

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Thursday during a press briefing that the team on the ground in China includes experts from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US National Institutes of Health, as well as experts from Singapore, Korea, Japan, Nigeria, Germany and Russia. The team includes experts in epidemiology, virology, clinical management, outbreak control and public health.

Team members are working with Chinese counterparts to study transmissibility of the virus and the impact the of measures taken in China.

US health officials have said they made repeated offers, starting in early January, to send health experts to China, and expressed frustration that US experts had not yet been invited in.

Coronavirus news and live updates: Two Diamond Princess passengers die - CNN