Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #8

[OhioBlues]

I was a bit taken aback by the suggestion that people from infected areas in Italy might travel to Switzerland because they believed they were not infected. That's how the virus has moved - people trying to escape infected areas and infecting people in other areas.

The incubation period is 2-5 days and up to 14 days for most people. Some people do not show symptoms for up to 20 days. Perhaps they're super healthy in the beginning. In any case, when people are in an infected area, it's foolish to transport them to uninfected areas - regardless of citizenship borders.

A male flew from Milan to NY yesterday and he said that he was questioned in Italy but was stunned that no one questioned him in the USA. He didn't appear sick but no one took his temp etc.

That IMO is a complete breakdown in the system (if there is a system).

 

[otto]

Shouldn't the incubation period be longer than 14 days if symptoms don't show for up to 20 days?

I have noticed people 'out of quarantine' and they are giving interviews when they appear to be unwell but they are travelling in planes, TV locations etc.

Why?

China has said incubation periods of 2-5 days, 14 days, 20 days in rare cases. General rule today is that if there are no symptoms in 14 days, people from infected areas are released to general populations in regions where there is no virus contamination.

In the past, when people are contagious they show symptoms. The weird thing about this virus is that people are contagious before they know it and while they feel healthy, and everything they touch can be contaminated for 5-9 days.

Is there a political agenda to convince everyone that after 14 days, infected people are fully recovered even though we know that hospitalized people need 17 days to recover. Seems odd to me that the best way to manage this virus is quarantine, yet that does not apply to countries due to tourism and economic supply chain priorities.

 

[margarita25]

A couple random thoughts /questions:

Has the source of the initial transmissions in Italy been identified? Noting, tia. We are seeing various global cross transmissions which are now linked to both Italy and Iran.

Also, it is important to note that there are many countries that have not reported any cases for 2 weeks, as Doc T mentioned today and yesterday, iirc Nepal, India, Vietnam...there are 8 countries I think, iirc. Everything changes so quickly as we know.

 

[otto]

I know what you mean. We’ve all been worried/discussing similar thoughts, especially as related to certain instances, Japan, etc moo.

In one of the recent WHO PCs, (maybe yesterday’s), a reporter asks about the possibility of longer incubation periods, iirc. Iirc moo they said something along the lines that they are aware of these reports and still studying and investigating all this, but 14 days seems to be the agreed upon number for now moo.

ETA:

Earlier I wanted to say that a safe measure for quarantine IMO may be
(In progress) :

Okay, so China is trusted on the 14 day incubation period and very rare 20 day interval, so why is China not trusted on the virus remaining active on surfaces for 5-9 days.

Didn't the states announce that contamination requires direct contact of less than 6 feet? Does that mean airplanes, people, surfaces?

Quarantine is not enough. There have to be medical facilities to care for 20% of infected populations, and locking people in their homes before taking them to the crematorium is not an option, except in China.

 

[OhioBlues]

A couple random thoughts /questions:

Has the source of the initial transmissions been Italy been identified? Noting, tia. I’m seeing now a lot of cross infections which is now related to both Italy and Iran.

Also, it is important to note that there are many countries that have not reported any cases for 2 weeks, as Doc T mentioned today and yesterday, iirc Nepal, India, Vietnam...there are 8 countries I think.

I am still looking for the initial transmission to Italy but this article explains the spread of the virus from Italy.

Europe's epidemic: how coronavirus radiated out from Italy

 

[otto]

A male flew from Milan to NY yesterday and he said that he was questioned in Italy but was stunned that no one questioned him in the USA. He didn't appear sick but no one took his temp etc.

That IMO is a complete breakdown in the system (if there is a system).

The WHO is advising all countries to take the situation seriously and work hard to contain. If the USA goes epidemic because of lax protocols, test failures and denial, Mexico and Canada need to close borders - just like the countries surrounding Iran. A country in denial is a danger to everyone.

 

[OhioBlues]

Coronavirus may have been in Italy for weeks before it was detected

 

[otto]

A couple random thoughts /questions:

Has the source of the initial transmissions in Italy been identified? Noting, tia. I’m seeing now a lot of cross infections which is now related to both Italy and Iran.

Also, it is important to note that there are many countries that have not reported any cases for 2 weeks, as Doc T mentioned today and yesterday, iirc Nepal, India, Vietnam...there are 8 countries I think, iirc. Everything changes so quickly as we know.

I don't know about an original first person in Italy, but it's probably someone from Italy, Iran or South Korea. Those are the areas that are currently spreading the virus to other countries.

India is such a densely populated country. I thought it would be the first to report an epidemic like in China, yet they claim they are recovered and no one is sick. Is everyone in India previously exposed to this virus?

 

[margarita25]

Coronavirus global risk raised to ‘very high’ as first British person dies

 

[otto]

Coronavirus may have been in Italy for weeks before it was detected

That deserves to be repeated:

"The claim follows laboratory tests that isolated a strain of the virus from an Italian patient, which showed genetic differences compared with the original strain isolated in China and two Chinese tourists who became sick in Rome.

Massimo Galli, professor of infectious diseases ... suggested the virus could have been spreading below the radar in the quarantined areas.

“I can’t absolutely confirm any safe estimate of the time of the circulation of the virus in Italy, but … some first evidence suggest that the circulation of the virus is not so recent in Italy,” he said, amid suggestions the virus may have been present since mid-January.

The beginnings of the outbreak, which has now infected more than 821 people in the country and has spread from Italy across Europe, were probably seeded at least two or three weeks before the first detection and possibly before flights between Italy and China were suspended at the end of January, say experts."​

Coronavirus may have been in Italy for weeks before it was detected

If this is related to a bat virus, might it have mutated, is there no connection to original source, could it be birds? That seems farfetched and although I've both considered and dismissed the idea, is it possible for disease to travel from bat to bird to people around the world?

 

[otto]

Coronavirus global risk raised to ‘very high’ as first British person dies

It's likely that a lot of people in Europe have to die before the states accepts that this deadly global virus doesn't care about borders, money, age or status.

 

[margarita25]

That deserves to be repeated:

"The claim follows laboratory tests that isolated a strain of the virus from an Italian patient, which showed genetic differences compared with the original strain isolated in China and two Chinese tourists who became sick in Rome.

Massimo Galli, professor of infectious diseases ... suggested the virus could have been spreading below the radar in the quarantined areas.

“I can’t absolutely confirm any safe estimate of the time of the circulation of the virus in Italy, but … some first evidence suggest that the circulation of the virus is not so recent in Italy,” he said, amid suggestions the virus may have been present since mid-January.

The beginnings of the outbreak, which has now infected more than 821 people in the country and has spread from Italy across Europe, were probably seeded at least two or three weeks before the first detection and possibly before flights between Italy and China were suspended at the end of January, say experts."​

Coronavirus may have been in Italy for weeks before it was detected

If this is related to a bat virus, might it have mutated, is there no connection to original source, could it be birds? That seems farfetched and although I've both considered and dismissed the idea, is it possible for disease to travel from bat to bird to people around the world?

Yeah I would like to see this addressed by Dr. Maria and Dr. Mike at the next WHO PC. A few days ago, after completing their own investigation in China, they said there had been no evidence of mutation.

We know about the mutations of influenza...

Jumping off this I’m curious how long the mutations took to occur in Influenza, and in what intervals?

ETA:

CDC:
How Flu Viruses Can Change

 

[margarita25]

I don't know about an original first person in Italy, but it's probably someone from Italy, Iran or South Korea. Those are the areas that are currently spreading the virus to other countries.

India is such a densely populated country. I thought it would be the first to report an epidemic like in China, yet they claim they are recovered and no one is sick. Is everyone in India previously exposed to this virus?

Another question I’m following up on is when and where were the first passengers repatriated from the DP, if there were any.

 

[otto]

Yeah I would like to see this addressed by Dr. Maria and Dr. Mike at the next WHO PC. A few days ago, after completing their own investigation in China, they said there had been no evidence of mutation.

We know about the mutations of influenza...

Jumping off this I’m curious how long the mutations took to occur in Influenza, and in what intervals?

ETA:

CDC:
How Flu Viruses Can Change

When I read that the virus may have been seeded in Italy 2-3 weeks ago, that makes me think that the incubation period is 2-3 weeks.

Mutation time period would be from first case in China to first case in Italy (first detection of mutation). It looks like December 2019 to February 2020, so not very long.

I wonder if it will have a different mutation on every continent.

 

[otto]

Another question I’m following up on is when and where were the first passengers repatriated from the DP, if there were any.

If the quarantine was 14 days, and Italy thinks the virus may have been seeded 2-3 weeks ago, the 14 days is probably too short.

 

[margarita25]

When I read that the virus may have been seeded in Italy 2-3 weeks ago, that makes me think that the incubation period is 2-3 weeks.

Yeah I’ve had this same kind of vibe also, moo, especially wrt the Diamond Princess, of course I am certainly no expert. I’d like to review that timeline (DP). IF the quarantined passengers did not NOT sustain initial transmission during their quarantine (say via utensils or food trays for example), then this could possibly lend itself to something longer than 14 days.

I’ve never been a fan of the 14 day rule, moo. I’ve always thought it should have been longer, especially considering there are so many unknowns, especially in the early days.

 

[otto]

I have to apologize, my horse is miles ahead of my cart in terms of concern about the virus. There's something about it from the beginning that didn't sound right. Business as usual is best.

 

[margarita25]

NBC Nightly News Broadcast (Full) - February 28th, 2020 | NBC Nightly News

 

[cody22]

Good morning to all.....Well, I have my clothes on, hot coffee, cigarettes, and I have a n95 mask .....Who is bringing the donuts ?......moo

 

[margarita25]

Good morning to all.....Well, I have my clothes on, hot coffee, cigarettes, and I have a n95 mask .....Who is bringing the donuts ?......moo

(You mean you’re not just wearing a swimsuit and a face mask? )