Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #9

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  • #761
  • #762
Dr. Emms Hodcroft
"Preliminary Case Report on the #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 Cluster in the UK, France & Spain"
At least 21 Britons were exposed to #coronavirus in French Ski Resort - 13 were infected, w cases in England, France, & Spain.
I compiled all we know about the cases ⬇️
Preliminary Case Report on the SARS-CoV-2 Cluster in the UK, France, and Spain Dr Emma Hodcroft on Twitter
Dr Emma Hodcroft on Twitter
Transmission started in Singapore at the Servomex conference & was spread to group of people visiting French Alps. Exact details of contact are unfortunately unknown.
Updated versions of the figures will always be available here:
emmahodcroft/British-COVID19-Cluster

Many were isolated after contact with those later testing positive for #SARSCoV2, but no more cases were detected outside of those transmitted in France.
It seems fast contact tracing, testing, & isolation successfully contained this early cluster. #COVID19

This is fabulous. Thank you. I wish there were more graphics/reports like this.

(I’m sure there are, we just don’t get to see them. :) )

Marking chart graphic:
https://www.websleuths.com/forums/attachments/img_20200301_041403-jpg.235411/
 
  • #763
This is fabulous. Thank you. I wish there were more graphics/reports like this.

(I’m sure there are, we just don’t get to see them. :) )
I'll keep looking... :) YW
 
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  • #765
  • #766
  • #767
Nextstrain

We've updated auspice with 5 new #SARSCoV2 genomes from the #COVID19 pandemic from Japan, China and Canada bringing the worldwide total up to 134(!). 1/4 Nextstrain on Twitter

The Canadian genome was sequenced by @CDCofBC using @NetworkArtic protocol. It was collected from BC on Feb 16 and is the first sequenced travel export from Iran. This groups most closely with a Shandong virus, but it is still consistent with Wuhan➡️Iran➡️BC transmission. 2/4 Nextstrain on Twitter

The two Japanese samples are from Kanagawa and were shared and sequenced by the Kanagawa Prefectural Institute of Public Health. These group in a nearby cluster along with viruses form Singapore and Hong Kong. 3/4 Nextstrain on Twitter
 

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  • #768
The Washington state presser just ended.

Myself, I give it a +15 on a scale of 1 to 10.

EXEMPLARY presser. MOO

They answered as we at WS know the facts, and didn't try to hide. They gave reasons for lacking, and reasons for what is done. It by Farrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr was one for all communities to copy MOO.

For those on WS that live in that area, you guys should be proud of those in leadership MOO. What they gave to the community that is probably new to them, but known here...great job on education that hasn't been done before anywhere MOO

Fantastic presser, even a bad news presser iykwim.

Is this the one? Marking to watch, thanks.

Coronavirus outbreak: Washington State health officials provide update on 1st COVID-19 death
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  • #769
New estimates suggest multiple undetected transmission chains
Modeling experts from Imperial College London examined recent COVID-19 developments outside of China that suggest that two-thirds of cases exported from China's mainland have gone undetected, which could have triggered yet-undetected local spread of the virus.

For their analysis, they estimated the likely size of the epidemic in Wuhan based on air traffic volume and the number of cases outside of China. Then they examined country rates of confirmed cases related to flight volume to gauge the sensitivity of different surveillance systems.

Though travel restrictions from Wuhan and other parts of China may have reduced the number of travelers to and from China, their estimates still suggest that a significant number of exported cases (63% to 73%) have gone undetected.

They said that differences in illness severity make some cases tough to detect. "However, some countries have detected significantly fewer than would have been expected based on the volume of flight passengers arriving from Wuhan City, China," they wrote.

Canada, Lebanon report Iran-linked COVID-19 cases as concerns rise
 
  • #770
Abe vows subsidies as coronavirus forces Japan school closures
FEBRUARY 29, 2020

PM offers help for working parents, insists Olympics are still on

“TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Saturday said his government will provide subsidies to help working parents cope with school closures aimed at containing the new coronavirus.

We need to resort to every possible means" to stop the virus, Abe told reporters in a rare weekend news conference where he addressed everything from testing and toilet paper shortages to talk of canceling the Olympics.“

[...]

“"We will take care of those households by establishing a new subsidy system," Abe said, referring to the country's 270 billion yen ($2.5 billion) in reserve funds for emergency measures.

While it is up to schools and local governments to decide whether to cancel classes, many companies have already taken steps to prepare for across-the board closures, with some employers rolling out large-scale telecommuting systems and cram schools suspending sessions. The government's assistance -- part of a second package of emergency measures to be drawn up in the next 10 days -- will be available to both permanent and non-regular employees.”

[...]

“Abe also sought to quell fears that the Olympics would become a coronavirus casualty, after a member of the International Olympic Committee raised the possibility of a cancellation earlier this week. "The president of the IOC has said that the response of the Japanese government has been sufficient, and the Olympics will push through," Abe said.”

“On virus testing, Abe noted that Japan's current capacity to diagnose the Covid-19 disease stands at 4,000 tests a day -- versus neighboring South Korea's 10,000. But the prime minister said work is underway to reduce testing time from two hours to 15 minutes, and to expand available hospital beds for infectious diseases to more than 5,000 from over 2,000.

"Starting next week," Abe said, "the tests will be covered by the public insurance system." Meanwhile, he said, three medicines that proved effective in labs are being administered to patients in Japan.

And amid reports that toilet paper is selling out across the country, the prime minister blamed the shortage on "groundless rumors" that Japan's supply will run out due to reduced shipments from China.”

[...]

“On a similar note, Abe reiterated that Japan's production of face masks -- now in short supply worldwide -- will be doubled in March to 600 million per month, exceeding current demand.

"We would like to ask people to act calmly when they shop," he said.”
 
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  • #771
(Yeah these all nighters covering the CV news isn’t helping my food stash any...now I’m into my frozen tator tot supply...seriously, I try not to buy some of this stuff usually...I usually plan for the week, watch my calories, cook with fresh ingredients, etc, and if I DO treat myself I only buy small quantities. I may die of diabetes or something before CV lol)
 
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  • #772
(Yeah these all nighters covering the CV news isn’t helping my food stash any...now I’m into my frozen tator tot supply...seriously, I try not to buy some of this stuff usually...I usually plan for the week, watch my calories, etc, and if I DO treat myself I only buy small quantities. I may die of diabetes or something before CV lol)
We just bought an air fryer....wow, makes great tater tots...
 
  • #773
Vincent Lee - reporter

On the Shincheonji people who visited Wuhan:
Reuters: Kwon Jun-wook, a KCDC official, confirmed for the first time that some members of the church visited Wuhan during a briefing. He said it was unclear how many went there and whether the trip played a role in the outbreak.

Yonhap: South Korean government says some members of the Shincheonji sect visited Wuhan in January.

South Korean media reports also say that some Koreans
who attended a fashion show in Milan have tested positive for the coronavirus after returning to South Korea

Vincent Lee on Twitter
 
  • #774
Dr. Kevin Purcell

The doubling time for SARS-CoV-2 is about 5 days (from other epidemiological studies).
It’s 6 weeks or about 40 days since introduction of the first case.
40 / 5 = 8
So 8 doublings from first case gives 2^(8+1) cases
About 500 cases in WA today.

Dr Kevin Purcell on Twitter
 
  • #775
We just bought an air fryer....wow, makes great tater tots...

OT - Air Fryers are wonderful for cooking frozen french fries, frozen hush puppies, frozen tator tots, etc.

We used to have a smaller one, but ended up getting one of those larger ones with the glass door and rotiserrie. It has a light button where you can see whats inside the front glass door. It works so good for heating up a quick meal.

Ours is similar to this model but we got it cheaper on QVC during a sale on them.

Power AirFryer Oven
 
  • #776
Vincent Lee

Reuters: IRAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD COMMANDER SAYS ALLOCATES FACILITIES IN VARIOUS CITIES TO ERADICATE CORONAVIRUS - PRESS TV

Reuters: IRAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CALLS ON PEOPLE TO FOLLOW ADVICE ISSUED BY HEALTH MINISTRY

Reuters: NUMBER OF DEATH BY CORONAVIRUS IN IRAN 54 - STATE TV

EDIT....
Reuters: CORRECTED-NUMBER OF PEOPLE INFECTED BY CORONAVIRUS IN IRAN IS 978 (NOT 987) - STATE TV, CITING HEALTH MINISTRY SPOKESMAN
(erroneous tweet above will be deleted shortly)



Vincent Lee on Twitter
 
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  • #777
Christophe Frazier

The short conclusion is: COVID-19 has the potential to cause an epidemic incomparable to seasonal influenza, both due to higher per severity per infection, and due to potential for extreme stresses on hospitals. However, a large epidemic is not unavoidable. 10/n
Christophe Fraser on Twitter

Controlling the epidemic may require very difficult interventions, and cause considerable disruption, as we have seen in China and other Asian countries. Epidemiology is a set of methods that will allow us to refine our interventions, to zoom in on those that work best. 11/n

Patient management and treatment will improve over time, especially if numbers are kept manageable. Awe inspiring efforts are under way to develop vaccines in record time. The challenge is to keep transmission not to zero, but down to levels that don't grow exponentially. 12/n

Early data show that R0 was about 2.5 in a population that had no information about what was happening or the seriousness. The aim is to reduce that to keep it below 1. That means using all interventions we have to reduce transmission by more than 60%. 13/n

That seems like a really challenging task - but not an impossible one. To reduce transmission by more than 60% to keep the reproduction number below one, and prevent exponential spread. Several countries have now seemingly managed it, at least for a time. 14/n

So the question seems to be, how can we sustainably achieve that level of reduction in transmission, to buy time for vaccine? (I wasn't intending such broad thread - happy to correct, elaborate, and clarify.) 15/n
 
  • #778
Stranded in Wuhan: What's it like to be stranded in a lockdown? / CGTN / 5 hours ago
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  • #779
A young Victorian woman has tested positive for the novel coronavirus two days after catching a flight home from Malaysia, in the latest in a growing list of new cases on Australian shores.
The woman caught the Malindo Air flight OD177 from Kuala Lumper to Denpasar and then on to Melbourne, arriving at 6:04am on Friday.
She had recently been travelling in Iran, where 43 people have died amid fears of a mass outbreak.
Young Victorian woman tests positive as Australian coronavirus cases mount
 
  • #780
Are they in denial?
'Weiss said doctors tested her for the flu and strep throat. When both came back negative, she said, the infectious disease doctor told her they were going to test her for coronavirus.

But Weiss said that never happened because the Florida Department of Health said it wasn’t necessary.

“I was told, ‘FDH said no,’ I didn’t need to be tested because even though the Chinese citizens I came in contact with were sick, none of them had confirmed cases,” Weiss said."
MOO- the TOURISM INDUSTRY is all powerful in Florida and especially around Orlando (Disney World) where this case is
sitting untested. I predict when the first cases
are finally announced here, the # of cases will
mushroom like a cyclone because there's been
much foot dragging in testing, no accurate tests available, no in state labs set up, news blackout per our Governor.
Disney and other theme parks like SeaWorld
and Universal are very, very powerful here.
Money over health of the people.
 
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