1/ Hong Kong epidemiologist Gabriel Leung @gmleunghku who was part of recent
@who mission to China gave a great talk at @LSHTM Feb 27.
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Joël Mossong on Twitter
2/ Here's a selection of points I thought were interesting and novel:
3/ In China, some asymptomatic cases were detected in follow up of contacts of cases, but not that many
4/ Funny outlier peak in Hubei epidemic curve could be due to poor recall of onset dates and "early February" date being coded as 1st February
5/ 80% of cases in China outside of Hubei were linked to cases in Hubei and more than 80% were in households, although this could be due to the intervention of people having to stay at home
6/ While serious toll on health care workers, 4% of total cases, this is much lower than SARS. Possibly better infection control practices.
7/ Consensus emerging on presymptomatic transmission is emerging: only question is how much of transmission occurs before symptoms (10%-30%). Gut feeling is lower than 50%.
8/ Viral shedding highest early on in infection, RT-PCR decreasing monotonically over course of infections, more evidence for presymptomatic transmission
9/ New symptomatic case fatality estimate of 2.6%, increasing with age up to 10% in 80 year olds
Joël Mossong on Twitter
10/ Relative susceptibility to symptomatic infection is strongly age dependent, 3 times higher in 60 + year olds than in 30-39 year olds
11/ Unclear if school closing could have sufficient impact on transmission. Will depend on susceptibility, severity and infectivity of children. For flu, reductions of Rt of 40% have been shown which might be enough for #Covid19.