Life in South Africa Amid the Omicron Surge Is a Glimpse of America’s Future
"According to
Shabir Mahdi, the University of the Witwatersrand’s dean of public health and a former member of the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Covid-19, the president’s Cabinet will likely consider additional preventive restrictions only if a health system collapse seems imminent. That is, the government’s priority this time around is to try to avoid economic losses—or, as President Cyril Ramaphosa
put it in a recent address to the nation, “to manage this pandemic, to resume many of our daily activities, and to rebuild our economy.” Officials see vulnerability to hunger and unemployment as greater threats than Covid, given that an
estimated 60 to 70 percent of South Africans have prior immunity, either from vaccination or prior infection.
The government also learned from earlier Covid waves, says Mahdi, that even the harshest lockdowns didn’t achieve the desired impact in a country where so many people live in crowded apartment buildings, houses, or shantytowns. And then there’s the specter of last July’s uprising, in which thousands of desperate people looted malls and supermarkets, a warning signal to the authorities about the dangers of severe public health restrictions.
Perhaps lockdowns are futile with a variant so infectious—around three times more so than delta, early estimates
suggest—that you can acquire it during a five-minute grocery shopping trip. Maybe mass infection really is the lesser evil facing the country. But, like the Swedish government’s “herd immunity” policy at the beginning of the pandemic, the South African government’s current omicron strategy is a potentially fatal gamble."