Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #108

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  • #821

Almost 15 million people died due to pandemic - WHO​

The Covid-19 pandemic killed almost 15 million people in 2020 and 2021, the World Health Organization has estimated.

This is up to triple the number of deaths attributed directly to the disease.

The World Health Organization's long-awaited estimate of the total number of deaths caused by the pandemic - including lives lost to its knock-on effects - finally puts a number on the broader impact of the crisis.

"New estimates from the World Health Organization show that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the Covid-19 pandemic between 1 January, 2020 and 31 December, 2021 was approximately 14.9 million (range 13.3 million to 16.6 million)," the UN health agency said in a statement.

The figure calculates what is termed as excess mortality due to the Covid-19 crisis, which has upended much of the planet for more than two years.

"These sobering data not only point to the impact of the pandemic but also to the need for all countries to invest in more resilient health systems that can sustain essential health services during crises, including stronger health information systems," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.

Excess mortality is calculated as the difference between the number of deaths that have occurred and the number that would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic, based on data from earlier years.

Excess mortality includes deaths associated with Covid-19 directly, due to the disease, and indirectly due to the pandemic's impact on health systems and society.

(...)

The WHO said that most of the excess deaths - 84% - were concentrated in southeast Asia, Europe and the Americas.

(...)

The WHO said the 14.9 million figure was produced by leading world experts who developed a methodology to generate estimates where data is lacking.

Many countries do not have the capacity for reliable mortality surveillance and therefore do not generate the data needed to work out excess mortality rates - but can do so using the publicly available methodology.

From the link:

Countries around the world reported 5.42 million Covid-19 deaths to the WHO in 2020 and 2021 - a figure that today stands at 6.24 million, including deaths in 2022.

So basically, they're estimating the "effects" of the pandemic killed more people than Covid itself?
 
  • #822
From the link:

Countries around the world reported 5.42 million Covid-19 deaths to the WHO in 2020 and 2021 - a figure that today stands at 6.24 million, including deaths in 2022.

So basically, they're estimating the "effects" of the pandemic killed more people than Covid itself?
I think it's a combination of adjusting for underreporting of direct deaths from Covid in countries where data/testing was lacking and then factoring in the knock-on effects of compromised healthcare during that period when hospitals were overwhelmed or regular healthcare was temporarily curtailed due to infection control protocols. I haven't read about the methodologies they used in detail though but that's just my understanding.
 
  • #823
I think it's a combination of adjusting for underreporting of direct deaths from Covid in countries where data/testing was lacking and then factoring in the knock-on effects of compromised healthcare during that period when hospitals were overwhelmed or regular healthcare was temporarily curtailed due to infection control protocols. I haven't read about the methodologies they used in detail though but that's just my understanding.
I'm assuming overdoses and suicides are being counted in the "excess" as well.
 
  • #824
I'm assuming overdoses and suicides are being counted in the "excess" as well.
All excess mortality would have been included but there is no consensus that suicide rates rose during the pandemic. This is just one study but I've seen many others that conclude that suicide rates did not increase.

Suicide rates haven’t risen, but we should be cautious

(...)

From the earliest days of the pandemic there was concern that suicide would increase.2 It wasn’t hard to see where the risks might come from: anxiety about infection, isolation, disrupted care, domestic violence, alcohol, recession. Actual figures, though, took months to appear. Now we have reports from several countries, based on national or state level suicide data. They come from Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Sweden, and the US—high income countries in most cases—and they carry a consistent message. Suicide rates have not risen.3

(...)

 
  • #825

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul tested positive for Covid-19, she announced Sunday afternoon on Twitter.

"Today I tested positive for COVID-19," Hochul wrote. "Thankfully, I'm vaccinated and boosted, and I'm asymptomatic. I'll be isolating and working remotely this week."


Hochul spent time in New York City last week, appearing at an event Friday with Gov. Phil Murphy, D-N.J., who tested positive for Covid-19 at the end of March.

Positive Covid-19 cases have been increasing in New York City and the state...
 
  • #826
From the link:

Countries around the world reported 5.42 million Covid-19 deaths to the WHO in 2020 and 2021 - a figure that today stands at 6.24 million, including deaths in 2022.

So basically, they're estimating the "effects" of the pandemic killed more people than Covid itself?

The numbers represent what statisticians and researchers call “excess mortality” — the difference between all deaths that occurred and those that would have been expected to occur under normal circumstances. The W.H.O.’s calculations include those deaths directly from Covid, deaths of people because of conditions complicated by Covid, and deaths of those who did not have Covid but needed treatment they could not get because of the pandemic. The calculations also take into account expected deaths that did not occur because of Covid restrictions, such as those from traffic accidents.

Calculating excess deaths globally is a complex task. Some countries have closely tracked mortality data and supplied it promptly to the W.H.O. Others have supplied only partial data, and the agency has had to use modeling to round out the picture. And then there is a large number of countries, including nearly all of those in sub-Saharan Africa, that do not collect death data and for which the statisticians have had to rely entirely on modeling.

Dr. Asma of the W.H.O. noted that nine out of 10 deaths in Africa, and six out of 10 globally, are not registered, and more than half the countries in the world do not collect accurate causes of death. That means that even the starting point for this kind of analysis is a “guesstimate,” she said. “We have to be humble about it, and say we don’t know what we don’t know.”

To produce mortality estimates for countries with partial or no death data, the experts in the advisory group used statistical models and made predictions based on country-specific information such as containment measures, historical rates of disease, temperature and demographics to assemble national figures and, from there, regional and global estimates.


India Is Stalling the W.H.O.’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public


India has officially recorded more than half a million deaths due to the novel coronavirus until now. It reported 481,000 Covid deaths between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021, but the WHO's estimates put the figure at nearly 10 times as many. They suggest India accounts for almost a third of Covid deaths globally.

So India is among the 20 countries - representing approximately 50% of the global population - that account for over 80% of the estimated global excess mortality for this period. Almost half of the deaths that until now had not been counted globally were in India.

 
  • #827
The numbers represent what statisticians and researchers call “excess mortality” — the difference between all deaths that occurred and those that would have been expected to occur under normal circumstances. The W.H.O.’s calculations include those deaths directly from Covid, deaths of people because of conditions complicated by Covid, and deaths of those who did not have Covid but needed treatment they could not get because of the pandemic. The calculations also take into account expected deaths that did not occur because of Covid restrictions, such as those from traffic accidents.

Calculating excess deaths globally is a complex task. Some countries have closely tracked mortality data and supplied it promptly to the W.H.O. Others have supplied only partial data, and the agency has had to use modeling to round out the picture. And then there is a large number of countries, including nearly all of those in sub-Saharan Africa, that do not collect death data and for which the statisticians have had to rely entirely on modeling.

Dr. Asma of the W.H.O. noted that nine out of 10 deaths in Africa, and six out of 10 globally, are not registered, and more than half the countries in the world do not collect accurate causes of death. That means that even the starting point for this kind of analysis is a “guesstimate,” she said. “We have to be humble about it, and say we don’t know what we don’t know.”

To produce mortality estimates for countries with partial or no death data, the experts in the advisory group used statistical models and made predictions based on country-specific information such as containment measures, historical rates of disease, temperature and demographics to assemble national figures and, from there, regional and global estimates.


India Is Stalling the W.H.O.’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public


India has officially recorded more than half a million deaths due to the novel coronavirus until now. It reported 481,000 Covid deaths between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021, but the WHO's estimates put the figure at nearly 10 times as many. They suggest India accounts for almost a third of Covid deaths globally.

So India is among the 20 countries - representing approximately 50% of the global population - that account for over 80% of the estimated global excess mortality for this period. Almost half of the deaths that until now had not been counted globally were in India.


Thank you for this post. IMO it does a good job of explaining what is meant by excess mortality (deaths). I'm not surprised that a large proportion of previously uncounted deaths occurred in India, considering the news reports about Covid in India I've read over the past couple of years.
 
  • #828

Severe COVID Can Age Your Brain by 20 Years


In the U.K., a study found that around one in seven people surveyed reported having symptoms that included cognitive difficulties 12 weeks after a positive COVID test. And a recent brain imaging study found that even mild COVID can cause the brain to shrink. Only 15 of the 401 people in the study had been hospitalized.

Incidental findings from a large citizen-science project (the Great British Intelligence Test) also showed that mild cases can lead to persistent cognitive symptoms. However, these problems appear to increase with the severity of the illness. Indeed, it has been independently shown that between a third and three-quarters of hospitalized patients report suffering cognitive symptoms three to six months later.

More at link . . .

 
  • #829
I just received an email update from the CDC that happens to discuss post-covid (long covid) symptoms. It’s timely because I have this on my list to discuss with the cardiologist I will be seeing tomorrow. I am consulting with him about the congestive heart failure diagnosis I received while hospitalized with severe shortness of breath in February, a year after my hospitalization with covid. While the long-covid possibility is more of a curiosity on my part and I doubt he can give me a definitive answer, I think it’s worth asking. If nothing else, it will raise his awareness of the issue if he’s been living under a rock lately. :D I doubt he has, but you never know these days.

Here is the link:

And here are links to tips for discussing this with the doctor as well as a checklist for the appointment.

There is also a link included discussing long-covid patient rights under the ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act).

I hope these links are helpful. I will share any insight I receive from my appointment.
 
  • #830

Severe COVID Can Age Your Brain by 20 Years


In the U.K., a study found that around one in seven people surveyed reported having symptoms that included cognitive difficulties 12 weeks after a positive COVID test. And a recent brain imaging study found that even mild COVID can cause the brain to shrink. Only 15 of the 401 people in the study had been hospitalized.

Incidental findings from a large citizen-science project (the Great British Intelligence Test) also showed that mild cases can lead to persistent cognitive symptoms. However, these problems appear to increase with the severity of the illness. Indeed, it has been independently shown that between a third and three-quarters of hospitalized patients report suffering cognitive symptoms three to six months later.

More at link . . .


No surprise to me! Although I was not in ICU, I was hospitalized for six days on oxygen with “covid pneumonia.” At 75 I was already losing names and words (that would come back to me), but it was a bit worse after covid and I joked that I could now blame my lapses on “covid brain.” A year later, I can’t say that it’s improved, although I don’t think it’s worse. It interests me that younger friends who have not had covid are experiencing the same memory lapses, so I’m not sure if it’s covid or just the times we’re living in. o_O
 
  • #831
No surprise to me! Although I was not in ICU, I was hospitalized for six days on oxygen with “covid pneumonia.” At 75 I was already losing names and words (that would come back to me), but it was a bit worse after covid and I joked that I could now blame my lapses on “covid brain.” A year later, I can’t say that it’s improved, although I don’t think it’s worse. It interests me that younger friends who have not had covid are experiencing the same memory lapses, so I’m not sure if it’s covid or just the times we’re living in. o_O

Maybe those of us who have not (yet) had Covid can claim that we have pandemic brain. Seems reasonable to me!
 
  • #832
Maybe those of us who have not (yet) had Covid can claim that we have pandemic brain. Seems reasonable to me!
I’ll never tell!
 
  • #833
No surprise to me! Although I was not in ICU, I was hospitalized for six days on oxygen with “covid pneumonia.” At 75 I was already losing names and words (that would come back to me), but it was a bit worse after covid and I joked that I could now blame my lapses on “covid brain.” A year later, I can’t say that it’s improved, although I don’t think it’s worse. It interests me that younger friends who have not had covid are experiencing the same memory lapses, so I’m not sure if it’s covid or just the times we’re living in. o_O
Putting it this way Lilibet, in the Long Covid clinic I had a session on how to help with memory problems. An example of the advice given, and I’m honestly being serious, was to write notes in your phone to check you have turned off the cooker, locked the front door…. So again, it has to be a thing.

I am thankfully not in need of that kind of prompt but I’m currently with my parents who are reminiscing a lot and I can’t remember half of what they’re talking about!
 
  • #834

WASHINGTON — The White House is looking for ways to make additional cuts and reallocate remaining Covid resources as it anticipates a funding shortfall for new vaccines ahead of another winter surge.

With the request for additional Covid funding stalled in Congress, the federal government doesn’t have enough money to begin contract negotiations with Pfizer and Moderna for new versions of vaccines the companies are developing for the fall. The government would need to secure contracts for those vaccine doses in the coming weeks if it is to ensure enough supply for the entire country, a senior administration official said Monday on a call with reporters.

The official projected that without new funding, the U.S. will be able to make vaccines available to only the highest-risk people this fall, with the administration looking for spending cuts that would free up enough money to start the contract negotiation process...
 
  • #835
BetteDavisEyes from article said:
snipped by me...
With the request for additional Covid funding stalled in Congress, the federal government doesn’t have enough money to begin contract negotiations with Pfizer and Moderna for new versions of vaccines the companies are developing for the fall. The government would need to secure contracts for those vaccine doses in the coming weeks if it is to ensure enough supply for the entire country, a senior administration official said Monday on a call with reporters.

Maybe they can get some funds from the Defense Dept - if that is where they are getting the $$ to supply Ukraine with weapons, etc.
 
  • #837
I used to be a COVID denier. I knew it was a virus, but I didn’t take it as seriously as I probably should have at first. I had the “it’s just a flu” mindset and “it’s going to just be like the SARS outbreak of 2003.” I joked about it a lot. Then I actually got COVID. It started with a cough-that l originally thought was from my bronchitis back in early February-and a sore throat and runny nose. Then the shortness of breath and weakness followed. I couldn’t go more than 10 steps without feeling like dying. I couldn’t even handle going up and down the stepladder at work. Nasal congestion came next and there were also sporadic fevers. I could feel myself burning up. I’ve had colds and flus and strep and etc etc. I knew this wasn’t any of those. Colds didn’t make me cough to the point of almost vomiting. Colds/flus don’t last as long as this was. Eventually, I was sent to Urgent Care and that was the day I was the sickest I ever felt. Due to it being too early into the pandemic, I couldn’t get tested, so the doctor clinically diagnosed me with COVID and sent me home to rest for a few days as mandatory isolation wasn’t a thing yet. Less than a week later, I was in quarantine as my symptoms hadn’t improved and I was useless at work…couldn’t do anything strenuous as it triggered a coughing attack…my throat was on fire…had no energy as I wasn’t eating due to no appetite…my fever was coming and going…I was literally a hot mess

After I was out of quarantine (32 days to be exact), I figured I was all good and I didn’t have to worry about COVID again. I didn’t know about long COVID or what being a long hauler was so ‍♀️ Late May is when I first started to realize this was going to be a journey I got sick again (a cold, thankfully) but had to be tested just to be sure. After that, 2020 was filled with numerous COVID tests and me isolating at home because I had a cough or a runny nose or any combination of cold and flu-like symptoms. I now know this was me relapsing. I also developed a chronic cough and shortness of breath which I still have to this day. During the summer of 2020, I started having some heart issues…tachycardia and palpitations. My heart rate would spike to 140+ for no reason. In November, I was put on a 48 hour Holter monitor, but it showed no abnormalities

Fast forward to 2021. I thought all my issues were behind me. Sure, I still had a cough and SOB, but I figured that was nothing in comparison to what I had to deal with in 2020. Boy was I wrong! COVID wasn’t done with me yet. Late January, I started getting the same symptoms I had in March. I had a fever and it was in the 100’s. My throat was extremely sore and I could barely swallow. My cough had worsened and I could walk from my futon to the fridge before being out of breath. And oh yeah, this time around I ended up losing my taste. As of this post, I still can’t taste cheese or Mini Eggs. Some things have a weird taste to them now and every once in a while, my taste will just disappear for a day just because

I ended up seeing my doctor in February after my isolation was over and he ordered chest X-rays and lab work. Chest X-rays showed scarring which confirmed a previous COVID infection. The lab work ruled out mono or another Epstein Barr virus as the source of my recurring upper respiratory infections. My blood showed no abnormalities either. I was diagnosed with COVID-induced asthma and prescribed two puffers-one for emergencies and one that contains corticosteroids and is taken twice a day.

I noticed new and different long haul symptoms after this COVID infection: constant headaches, loss of hair, rashes/hives/itchy skin, muscle and joint pain, tingling in the hands, fatigue, frequent urination, GI problems. After getting vaccinated (specifically the second dose), the majority of my long haul symptoms resolved/lessened in severity.

I wasn’t nearly as sick (respiratory system wise) in 2021 as I was in 2020, but I was dealing with long haul symptoms more than anything. I had headaches everyday…I couldn’t eat anything without feeling sick. There were even a couple times where I missed work due to what I believed was the stomach flu, but was actually my body negatively reacting to gluten. All this prompted ANOTHER visit to the doctor (October) where ANOTHER round of blood work was ordered. This one had a celiac test on it. My celiac’s test was negative, but I still decided to cut gluten out of my diet and go gluten free-my doctor also fully supported my decision when I told him. After switching to GF, my headaches went away as did my tummy problems and the rashes I was getting. Turns out COVID has made me gluten intolerant. As well as alcohol intolerant.

The omicron variant reared its ugly head late 2021 and even though it was labeled “mild,” it was spreading like wildfire. I thought I’d be safe from it, since I already had COVID twice. Surely I couldn’t get it a THIRD time, right?! Wrong! Just after New Years 2022, I developed a really, really sore throat, a phlegmy cough, and a stuffy nose. Again, I knew it wasn’t a cold, because I know when I’m sick with a cold vs flu vs COVID. This was COVID and it was the omicron variant. Luckily I had mild symptoms and I felt better in less than a week. Unfortunately, because my immune system is , I got bronchitis shortly after recovering from COVID.

COVID has wrecked my lungs and they will never be the same, unfortunately. COVID has also wrecked my immune system in other ways. My immune response is not what it was pre-COVID. I am more susceptible to respiratory infections now. I also have MCAS (mast cell activation syndrome) type symptoms. COVID has also reactivated the HSV in me and so I get cold sores A LOT again.

It’s been a roller coaster of a ride since March 2020 and I am hoping this ride ends soon.

Prior to getting COVID, I was a healthy 30 year old and had no underlying health conditions.
 
  • #838
I used to be a COVID denier. I knew it was a virus, but I didn’t take it as seriously as I probably should have at first. I had the “it’s just a flu” mindset and “it’s going to just be like the SARS outbreak of 2003.” I joked about it a lot. Then I actually got COVID. It started with a cough-that l originally thought was from my bronchitis back in early February-and a sore throat and runny nose. Then the shortness of breath and weakness followed. I couldn’t go more than 10 steps without feeling like dying. I couldn’t even handle going up and down the stepladder at work. Nasal congestion came next and there were also sporadic fevers. I could feel myself burning up. I’ve had colds and flus and strep and etc etc. I knew this wasn’t any of those. Colds didn’t make me cough to the point of almost vomiting. Colds/flus don’t last as long as this was. Eventually, I was sent to Urgent Care and that was the day I was the sickest I ever felt. Due to it being too early into the pandemic, I couldn’t get tested, so the doctor clinically diagnosed me with COVID and sent me home to rest for a few days as mandatory isolation wasn’t a thing yet. Less than a week later, I was in quarantine as my symptoms hadn’t improved and I was useless at work…couldn’t do anything strenuous as it triggered a coughing attack…my throat was on fire…had no energy as I wasn’t eating due to no appetite…my fever was coming and going…I was literally a hot mess

After I was out of quarantine (32 days to be exact), I figured I was all good and I didn’t have to worry about COVID again. I didn’t know about long COVID or what being a long hauler was so ‍♀️ Late May is when I first started to realize this was going to be a journey I got sick again (a cold, thankfully) but had to be tested just to be sure. After that, 2020 was filled with numerous COVID tests and me isolating at home because I had a cough or a runny nose or any combination of cold and flu-like symptoms. I now know this was me relapsing. I also developed a chronic cough and shortness of breath which I still have to this day. During the summer of 2020, I started having some heart issues…tachycardia and palpitations. My heart rate would spike to 140+ for no reason. In November, I was put on a 48 hour Holter monitor, but it showed no abnormalities

Fast forward to 2021. I thought all my issues were behind me. Sure, I still had a cough and SOB, but I figured that was nothing in comparison to what I had to deal with in 2020. Boy was I wrong! COVID wasn’t done with me yet. Late January, I started getting the same symptoms I had in March. I had a fever and it was in the 100’s. My throat was extremely sore and I could barely swallow. My cough had worsened and I could walk from my futon to the fridge before being out of breath. And oh yeah, this time around I ended up losing my taste. As of this post, I still can’t taste cheese or Mini Eggs. Some things have a weird taste to them now and every once in a while, my taste will just disappear for a day just because

I ended up seeing my doctor in February after my isolation was over and he ordered chest X-rays and lab work. Chest X-rays showed scarring which confirmed a previous COVID infection. The lab work ruled out mono or another Epstein Barr virus as the source of my recurring upper respiratory infections. My blood showed no abnormalities either. I was diagnosed with COVID-induced asthma and prescribed two puffers-one for emergencies and one that contains corticosteroids and is taken twice a day.

I noticed new and different long haul symptoms after this COVID infection: constant headaches, loss of hair, rashes/hives/itchy skin, muscle and joint pain, tingling in the hands, fatigue, frequent urination, GI problems. After getting vaccinated (specifically the second dose), the majority of my long haul symptoms resolved/lessened in severity.

I wasn’t nearly as sick (respiratory system wise) in 2021 as I was in 2020, but I was dealing with long haul symptoms more than anything. I had headaches everyday…I couldn’t eat anything without feeling sick. There were even a couple times where I missed work due to what I believed was the stomach flu, but was actually my body negatively reacting to gluten. All this prompted ANOTHER visit to the doctor (October) where ANOTHER round of blood work was ordered. This one had a celiac test on it. My celiac’s test was negative, but I still decided to cut gluten out of my diet and go gluten free-my doctor also fully supported my decision when I told him. After switching to GF, my headaches went away as did my tummy problems and the rashes I was getting. Turns out COVID has made me gluten intolerant. As well as alcohol intolerant.

The omicron variant reared its ugly head late 2021 and even though it was labeled “mild,” it was spreading like wildfire. I thought I’d be safe from it, since I already had COVID twice. Surely I couldn’t get it a THIRD time, right?! Wrong! Just after New Years 2022, I developed a really, really sore throat, a phlegmy cough, and a stuffy nose. Again, I knew it wasn’t a cold, because I know when I’m sick with a cold vs flu vs COVID. This was COVID and it was the omicron variant. Luckily I had mild symptoms and I felt better in less than a week. Unfortunately, because my immune system is , I got bronchitis shortly after recovering from COVID.

COVID has wrecked my lungs and they will never be the same, unfortunately. COVID has also wrecked my immune system in other ways. My immune response is not what it was pre-COVID. I am more susceptible to respiratory infections now. I also have MCAS (mast cell activation syndrome) type symptoms. COVID has also reactivated the HSV in me and so I get cold sores A LOT again.

It’s been a roller coaster of a ride since March 2020 and I am hoping this ride ends soon.

Prior to getting COVID, I was a healthy 30 year old and had no underlying health conditions.
How awful this has been for you, but thank you for sharing your experience.

IMO this should be required reading around the globe.
 
  • #839
Maybe they can get some funds from the Defense Dept - if that is where they are getting the $$ to supply Ukraine with weapons, etc.

that is what i was thinking!!!!
 
  • #840
Checking in as promised after my appointment this morning with a cardiologist for congestive heart failure. I asked about a “covid connection” and he said “It’s hard to say.” They did discover an extra beat on the EKG this morning and there is a vague possibility it’s connected, but nothing definitive.

He gave me my specific diagnosis of the type of heart failure and IMO it’s more likely to be a condition that has developed gradually over time. In any case, the treatment plan to first get rid of excess fluid, and then go from there, sounds reasonable from what I’ve been reading, so here’s hoping it will ease my shortness of breath and improve my functioning. I’m half hoping it will reverse my covid weight gain, but I suppose there‘s a “fat chance” of that happening! Hope springs eternal! :)
 
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