Covid-19 has changed and so has our immunity. Here’s how to think about risk from the virus now
Covid-19 was never just another cold. We knew it was going to stick around and keep changing to try to get the upper hand on our immune systems.
But we’ve changed, too. Our B cells and T cells, keepers of our immune memories, aren’t as blind to this virus as they were when we first encountered the novel coronavirus in 2020. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has screened blood samples and estimates that 97% of people in the US have some immunity to Covid-19 through vaccination, infection or both.
(...)
So if people are less likely to be hospitalized or die from a Covid-19 infection now, has the danger passed? Is there still reason to worry if you do catch the infection for a second, third or fourth time?
Experts say it’s less risky to catch Covid-19 than it used to be, but there are still good reasons not to treat it casually.
“At this point, the risk is lower because of our prior immunity, whether for severe outcomes or for long Covid,” said Dr. Megan Ranney, an emergency physician and dean of the Yale School of Public Health.
“Covid is still more dangerous than the flu, but its level of danger is becoming less,” she said, noting that we’re still very early in our human experience with the coronavirus, even four years in, and there are still things we don’t know.
(...)
While nearly all of us have immune systems that can recognize key parts of the virus now, even that memory to the infection fades over time. The longer it has been since you’ve been infected or vaccinated, the more forgetful your immune system becomes.
Those B cells and T cells, “they’re going to be a little slower to respond. They’re not they’re not as primed and ready to go,” Ranney said.
Your strongest immunity will be in the two weeks to two months after you get your vaccines. That means it’s smart to try to get your shots shortly before Covid is expected to be on the upswing. Just like for flu, experts expect the worst of Covid to hit in the fall and winter.
CDC Director Dr. Mandy Cohen said that even though cases are going up now, most people will be better off waiting a few weeks to get the newly updated Covid-19 vaccines rather than trying to get one of the older bivalent vaccines right now. But this is dependent on personal risk, so if you’re concerned, talk to your doctor or nurse practitioner about your options.
(...)
It seems like there’s always a “but” with Covid-19, and here it is: Across the population, the risk of chronic complications from an infection may be going down, but each infection also adds to the chances that a person may face lasting damage. A recent study published in the journal Nature Medicine found that reinfections are not benign. Each additional infection increased a person’s risk of death, hospitalization and other long-term problems.
(...)
Among more than 300,000 people with reinfections, researchers found that the risk of having a more severe disease was slightly higher the second time around.
(...)
Hendrix said it’s made him think twice about taking precautions.
“I think it’s still worthwhile to do what you can to avoid getting infected,” he said.
(...)
Lots more at link. Long article.
