Coronavirus - COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #24

[Trudie]

I hear ya. I think all anyone can do is practice self protection. We hear of people doing “good things”, etc., but what I’m hearing and reading on SM for my local area is not “good things”. Jmo
Some will never believe there’s a real risk until it knocks at their door, imo.
Our bars were packed last night, I can always tell by the traffic flow after last call. People driving between 1-2a.m were not at the local laundromat. Lol.
Unless public venues are ordered closed, people here will be out & about. I get it—if the Toyota plant is open, it sends mixed signals. Toyota employs over 8k.

Good morning. This is scary news. While people ignore social distancing, do they realize this report snipped from WHO’s PC? If we don’t lock down now we will all be fighting for our lives.

And, on top of that, I still believe China’s death rate was under-reported:

More cases are now being reported every day than were reported in China at the height of its epidemic.

 

[Skigh]

Health Secretary Matt Hancock admits the NHS does not have enough ventilators to cope with coronavirus and confirms the elderly WILL be told to stay at home for FOUR MONTHS

Coronavirus: Matt Hancock confirms the elderly WILL be told to stay home for four months | Daily Mail Online

 

[Trudie]

Nike is closing all of its stores in the U.S., along with other parts of the world, to try to curb the spread of the new coronavirus, the company said Sunday morning.

Its locations across the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand will close from Monday through March 27, the company said.


Workers will still be paid in full during this time off, a spokeswoman confirmed to CNBC.

Meantime, Nike is still keeping open its stores in South Korea, Japan, most of China and in “many other countries,” the company said, based on daily assessments of the COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...C&par=google&usg=AOvVaw1HEALIrkRDTSe4ud5iWgX3

 

[Trudie]

Top U.S. Commander ‘Fairly Certain’ North Korea Has Virus Cases
The U.S. is “fairly certain” that there are coronavirus cases in North Korea, despite denials by Pyongyang, because of a lack of military activity, according to a senior American army commander.

North Korea’s military has “fundamentally been on lockdown” for almost a month and didn’t fly a single aircraft for 24 days before resuming its routine training, Commander of the U.S. Forces Korea Robert Abrams told reporters in a teleconference briefing on Friday.

“You know, you’ve seen the public statements by North Korea that they claim that they have no Covid-19 cases,” he said. “It is a closed-off nation, so we can’t say emphatically that they have cases, but we’re fairly certain they do.”

 

[dixiegirl1035]

So each infected person would infect .5 to 1.5 other people if left unchecked and not quarantined. And since we’ve only been testing symptomatic people or those who have been exposed, but asymptomatic people spread the virus, that could mean real trouble. Less than ebola but we contained that and haven’t contained this.

So we have 2,100 confirmed cases. How many people did they infect? And how many of those infected also infected others? And so on.

Also, today we have a death rate among those tested of 2%. The flu has had a death rate of .6% to 1% in the US this season.

So more than double the rate.

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

I think you are reading the graph incorrectly Gitana due to you saying that one person would infect 0.5 to 1.5 MOO When I first saw the graph that Henry posted below.I thought it was more in line with what I had heard that The R0 is on the x axis - so it is about 2.8 for most. Here is the graph again ? And these numbers were when many were taking precautions such as quarantine or distancing and other measures. MOO. This is Henry's graph that you referenced that I'm bringing forward.

OK... I found the source of the document and the x axis is indeed the r0 .

I have no idea what clock rate/density means though lol.

Phylodynamic Analyses of outbreaks in China, Italy, Washington State (USA), and the Diamond Princess

Summary
Based on results in our previous post, we are more confident in a clock rate of 5 x 10-4 compared to a faster clock. For this clock rate, we estimate the R0 (Fig. 1) for China, Italy, and Washington State (USA) to be between 2 and 4. In particular, the distributions for R0 are estimated to be very similar. For the Diamond Princess, the R0 is estimated to be between 2 and 5 up to its quarantine, and Re is a bit lower afterwards (Fig. 4). ......

Also, where are you getting that the death rate for the Flu is 1%? I'd like to see your source as I've never heard of such. I think some incorrect math done to get that high a percentage and think it off by a factor of 10 as I thought 0.1% (and some years ranging down to 0.01%)?

 

[margarita25]

DeSantis Confirms Evidence of ‘Community Spread’ for Broward COVID-19 Cases

• “Health officials confirmed 77 cases of COVID-19 that are linked to Florida
• 24 Broward cases have been confirmed, Miami-Dade has 6
• Governor DeSantis confirmed that there was evidence of "community spread"”

 

[Skigh]

Almost 20MILLION people in Britain could be infected by summer | Daily Mail Online

 

[margarita25]

Nebraska records 1st case of coronavirus from community spread, triggering limits on crowds
7 hrs ago

 

[Henry2326]

Exactly.

I heard 15 minutes in an enclosed space. But that’s just standing there. Not having some dingbat cough in your face.

Hi- my daughter is an attorney in GA. They closed courts down throughout the state.

 

[margarita25]

L.A. County coronavirus cases rise to 53 with more evidence of community spread
Mar 14, 2020 / 10:49 PM PDT

“Los Angeles County reported 11 new coronavirus cases Saturday, bringing the total number of cases to 53 as community spread increases in the nation's most populous county.”

[...]

“Officials in Santa Clarita announced Saturday that one of the new cases was in their city.

The city of Long Beach, which has its own public health agency, reported its fifth COVID-19 case Saturday.”

 

[Henry2326]

I think you are reading the graph incorrectly Gitana due to you saying that one person would infect 0.5 to 1.5 MOO When I first saw the graph that Henry posted below.I thought it was more in line with what I had heard that The R0 is on the x axis - so it is about 2.8 for most. Here is the graph again ? And these numbers were when many were taking precautions such as quarantine or distancing and other measures. MOO. This is Henry's graph that you referenced that I'm bringing forward.

OK... I found the source of the document and the x axis is indeed the r0 .

I have no idea what clock rate/density means though lol.

Phylodynamic Analyses of outbreaks in China, Italy, Washington State (USA), and the Diamond Princess

Summary
Based on results in our previous post, we are more confident in a clock rate of 5 x 10-4 compared to a faster clock. For this clock rate, we estimate the R0 (Fig. 1) for China, Italy, and Washington State (USA) to be between 2 and 4. In particular, the distributions for R0 are estimated to be very similar. For the Diamond Princess, the R0 is estimated to be between 2 and 5 up to its quarantine, and Re is a bit lower afterwards (Fig. 4). ......

View attachment 238563

Also, where are you getting that the death rate for the Flu is 1%? I'd like to see your source as I've never heard of such. I think some incorrect math done to get that?

Correct Dixie....R0 is close to 3.

 

[margarita25]

'We now have community spread in our state': Reynolds confirms Dallas County COVID-19 case
Updated: 10:34 PM CDT Mar 14, 2020

“Gov. Kim Reynolds made the announcement during a press conference in Johnston at 8:30 p.m. Saturday. The newly infected individual is age 61 to 80 and did not travel to an infected area. This brings the total of infected Iowans to 18.”

 

[Henry2326]

Czech pubs prepare to turn off taps early to contain coronavirus Czech pubs prepare to turn off taps early to contain coronavirus Reuters on Twitter
Reuters on Twitter

STAY HOME, SAVE LIVES

 

[Trudie]

RE:: community spread
Imo, unless every city & state get on the same page, it will not end. If my town or even state closes restaurants, theaters & bars, I can easily drive to the next town over, or be in OH or IN in less than an hour.

 

[margarita25]

Salt Lake County confirms 9 new COVID-19 cases, raising Utah total to 19

“SALT LAKE CITY — The Salt Lake Health Department announced nine new cases of COVID-19 in Salt Lake County Saturday night. That brings the total in Salt Lake County alone to 14 cases.

The Salt Lake Health Department said 11 of those cases are adults over the age of 18 and three are children. Two of the children attended Hunter High School in West Valley City and Entheos Academy, a charter school with campuses in Magna and Kearns, while symptomatic. Both school communities have been notified of the potential exposure to the virus.”

 

[Henry2326]

FDA is urging healthy individuals to donate blood as blood drives are being canceled nationwide, putting the country’s blood supply at a potential risk as concerns over the novel coronavirus pandemic grow. FDA worried about blood shortage as donation drives are canceled amid coronavirus concerns
ABC News on Twitter

STAY HOME, SAVE LIVES

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I’m behind on Friday’s PC . The transcript is below but remember doesn’t include transcription of the Q&A’s with Dr. Mike and Dr. Maria, which are like gold to me.

Live from WHO Headquarters - Daily press briefing on COVID-19 - 13MARCH2020

Link to more WHO
Press briefings

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 13 March 2020
13 March 2020

“Good afternoon everyone.

I want to start today by acknowledging that even though COVID-19 has captured the world’s attention, there are still many other health issues people continue to face every single day, and that WHO is continuing to work on.

Babies are still being born. Essential surgery is continuing. People still need emergency care after road traffic crashes. People still need treatment for cancer, diabetes, HIV, malaria and many other diseases.

And for all of these, we need health workers. Today I want to send a personal and sincere thank you to every health worker around the world – especially nurses and midwives, who we are celebrating this year through the International Year of the Nurse and the Midwife.

You do a heroic job. We know that this crisis is putting a huge burden on you and your families. We know you are stretched to the limit.

You have our admiration, our respect, and our commitment to doing everything we can to keep you safe and enable you to do your job.

More than 132,000 cases of COVID-19 have now been reported to WHO, from 123 countries and territories.

5,000 people have lost their lives, a tragic milestone.

Europe has now become the epicenter of the pandemic, with more reported cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined, apart from China.

More cases are now being reported every day than were reported in China at the height of its epidemic.

We’re encouraged that many countries are now acting on the 8 pillars of WHO’s Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan.

Most countries now have a national plan; most are taking a multi-sectoral approach and most have laboratory testing capacity.

WHO has evidence-based guidance that every country can use, according to each of the 8 pillars.

And we’re continuing to support countries to prepare and respond.

We have shipped supplies of personal protective equipment to 56 countries, we’re shipping to a further 28 countries, and we’ve sent almost 1.5 million diagnostic tests to 120 countries.

Our message to countries continues to be: you must take a comprehensive approach.

Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all.

Any country that looks at the experience of other countries with large epidemics and thinks “that won’t happen to us” is making a deadly mistake. It can happen to any country.

The experience of China, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and others clearly demonstrates that aggressive testing and contact tracing, combined with social distancing measures and community mobilization, can prevent infections and save lives.

Japan is also demonstrating that a whole-of-government approach led by Prime Minister Abe himself, supported by in-depth investigation of clusters, is a critical step in reducing transmission.

WHO has clear advice for governments, businesses and individuals.

First, prepare and be ready.

Every person must know the signs and symptoms and how to protect themselves and others.

Every health worker should be able to recognize this disease, provide care and know what to do with their patients.

Every health facility should be ready to cope with large numbers of patients, and ensure the safety of staff and patients.

Second, detect, protect and treat.

You can’t fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, test and treat every case, to break the chains of transmission.

Every case we find and treat limits the expansion of the disease.

Third, reduce transmission.

Do not just let this fire burn.

Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts. In addition, measures that increase social distancing such as cancelling sporting events may help to reduce transmission. These measures, of course, should be based on local context and risk assessment, and should be time-limited.

Even if you cannot stop transmission, you can slow it down and save lives.

And fourth, innovate and learn.

This is a new virus and a new situation. We’re all learning, and we must all find new ways to prevent infections, save lives, and minimize impact. All countries have lessons to share.

There are simple, effective things we can all do to reduce the risk of infection for ourselves and those around us.

Clean your hands regularly with an alcohol-based rub or soap and water.

Cover your mouth and nose with your elbow if you cough or sneeze.

Stay home if you’re sick.

Avoid unnecessary travel and large social gatherings.

Comply with the advice of your local or national health authority.

Find and share reliable information.

And finally, you can give.

Together with the United Nations Foundation and the Swiss Philanthropy Foundation, WHO is today launching the COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund, to enable individuals and organizations to contribute.

Until now, we have been relying mainly on governments to support the response.

We thank all those countries who have supported WHO’s Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan, including Japan, which this week contributed 155 million U.S. dollars.

Now everyone can contribute.

Funds raised will be used to coordinate the response, to buy masks, gloves, gowns and goggles for health workers, to buy diagnostic tests, to improve surveillance, and to invest in research and development.

To give to the COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund, go to who.int, and look for the orange “Donate” button at the top of the page.

We thank Google, Facebook and the individuals who have already contributed.

Every dollar donated is a dollar towards saving lives.

We’re all in this together.

I thank you.”

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 13 March 2020

*Dixie offers Margarita some gold upon her request for the Q&As* and attaches PDF of Q&A with link

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...65143bd8d07a1647c863d6b.pdf?sfvrsn=23dd0b04_2

 

[Trudie]

Correct Dixie....R0 is close to 3.

Also, the “spreader” has opportunity to spread to many more if he’s in the public 8 hours daily for his job, if he’s in retail, driving taxi, waiter, on and on and on. If the “spreader” simply goes to a store for a couple items, or sees a friend or two, he would infect fewer. Moo

 

[margarita25]

Ugh

“CDPHE confirmed four new presumptive positive cases in Eagle County on Saturday and 24 new cases across the state, based on overnight test results. That brings the total number of presumptive positive cases in Eagle County to 20, of the 101 cases across the state.”

Coronavirus updates: Four new cases in Eagle County, 24 new cases across Colorado

*Dixie offers Margarita some gold upon her request for the Q&As* and attaches PDF of Q&A with link

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...65143bd8d07a1647c863d6b.pdf?sfvrsn=23dd0b04_2

Awwwwwwwwww that is sweet, Dixie. Just in time for me to smile while I barf.

—-

Colorado COVID-19 cases continue to rise, 1st death reported

“The number of presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 in Colorado is up to 101 as of Saturday afternoon. There have been 24 new cases confirmed overnight.

The state has completed about 800 tests in Colorado.

Below is a breakdown of the cases by age and county, according to the state health department.

Age of individuals:
• 20s – 4
• 30s – 5
• 40s – 5
• 50s – 5
• 60s – 2
• 70s – 2
• 80s – 1

County of residence:
• Adams - 3
• Arapahoe – 3
• Denver – 5
• Eagle – 4
• El Paso – 1
• Gunnison - 2
• Jefferson – 2
• Mesa - 1
• Pitkin – 1
• Weld - 1
• Out of state - 1 (Currently located Denver County)

Resident/Visitor:
• Residents: 23
• Visitors: 1

Gender:
• Female: 11
• Male: 13”

 

[Trudie]

My eyes are so tired, lol. I thought it said “water”. I thought wth!

Czech pubs prepare to turn off taps early to contain coronavirus Czech pubs prepare to turn off taps early to contain coronavirus Reuters on Twitter
Reuters on Twitter

STAY HOME, SAVE LIVES