Coronavirus - COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #24

[Trudie]

This should be nationwide!

Absolutely! Should have already been done. Heck, the stores are wiped out, cook at home, lol.

 

[Henry2326]

...we shouldn't ignore effects of low-risk individuals changing behavior. Let’s focus on high-risk infected cases (y-axis scaled as before). If only low-risk individuals limit interaction, this has greater impact on *high-risk cases* than if only high-risk individuals do so [3/8] Benjamin Kerr on Twitter
Benjamin Kerr on Twitter

STAY HOME, SAVE LIVES

 

[Trudie]

Nice to see another governor being a bit more candid. I’m so over ours standing at the podium speaking softly, advising us to remain calm & the ever present reminder to wash our hands.

'We are all in this together': Colorado governor expects thousands of COVID-19 cases, urges social distancing
Announces limits to public gatherings, efforts to increase number of medical professionals
Updated: 11:10 PM, Mar 13, 2020

 

[margarita25]

Preparing for COVID-19? Here’s what doctors say you need
Updated: Mar 14, 2020 / 09:44 PM MDT

“He recommends having small quantities of the following items in your house.

Acetaminophen (Tylenol)
Ibuprofen (Advil)
Nyquil / Dayquil / Mucinex (or generic)”

( @dixiegirl1035 , @LaborDayRN )

 

[CeeCeeCat]

I’m not doing any appointments. Moo.

It sucks. I’ve been agonizing over this for weeks lol.

I sure am going to miss my perfectly waxed eyebrows....

My hair is growing out and if it needs cutting I’m cutting it myself.

Yup. My eyebrows need threading. Not going to happen. Luckily, my floofy dog fringe will be covering them.

 

[Henry2326]

She is an infectious disease researcher.......going with her over the politician.....

Deeply concerned about this bold statement by the French MoH with no reference to the claim, which is causing public concern. There’s no scientific evidence I am aware of that ibuprofen cause worst outcomes in #COVID19. dr muge cevik on Twitter
dr muge cevik on Twitter

STAY HOME, SAVE LIVES

 

[swedeheart]

are there state by state websites set up or only the john hopkins one? i have not been able to find much info about mississippi, except that they only have 1 case (which i find ridiculously impossible. i bet they don't have tests). i am in sweden, but i am from mississippi, and my entire family is there. seeing how quickly it's spreading across the states now, it can only be a matter of time before it's widespread. sigh...

 

[margarita25]

Boulder County declares local disaster emergency in response to COVID-19

BBM:

“Just as we did in the 2013 Flood, we are looking for all available resources to help us address the growing community needs in Boulder County around this global health crisis,” said Board of Boulder County Commissioners Chair, Deb Gardner. “Our teams of dedicated staff and public officials are working around the clock to meet our local needs for assistance and ensure that the concerns of our residents are being fully addressed.””

(Lol, you know how I was joking about posting all alone in the Hepatitis A thread? Well I think I recall some lonely times in the 2013 Flood thread too ahahaha)

 

[CeeCeeCat]

I have had such a lovely morning. Got off the interwebs for a few hours and assembled a penthouse for the cats. Switched off the news and on a whim, played some Stevie Wonder (thank you, Amazon Prime). One of those Fate-y flukes, the first song was ‘Have a Talk with God’. I am not overly religious but I am very spiritual and that song spoke to me and calmed me. Also, I defy anyone to listen to ‘Isn’t She Lovely’ without dancing around the room - much to the round-eyed horror and embarrassment of an assortment of cats, all gathered to play in their new activity centre.
I suppose we will all have to grab onto and recognise these moments of happiness when we can - I won’t be taking them for granted any time soon, anyway.
Meanwhile, off to make a coffee and catch up here.

 

[swedeheart]

meanwhile, if you search on twitter for "o'hare," you can see the chaos at major american airports. 8- hour lines to get through customs at terminal 5 (international). police are handing out water and disinfectant wipes. similar situation at DFW.

ETA: it CANNOT be safe to be in those crowds right now.

 

[zecats]

NJ Governor (for now) appears to be allowing school districts to make their own decisions, seemingly to allow for one more day (or half day) for students to pick up textbooks and work packets. Two districts recently closed in my area, including the district my kids attended. Also...

Movie theaters and malls in hard-hit Bergen County are planning to close amid the new coronavirus outbreak as officials remind parents that school closures are not a time for children to socialize.

More 350 public school districts have canceled classes at least for a few days or moved their learning online for at least a week.

Gov. Phil Murphy said on Friday it's a matter of "when, and not an if" New Jersey will order all public schools closed. Officials in Bergen, Burlington and Hunterdon counties have already shut all their public schools. The Archdiocese of Newark and the Diocese of Trenton also have closed their Catholic schools.

**The purpose of the closures is to encourage social distancing and slow the spread of COVID-19 among students and staff who spend their days in close quarters.

**"Social distancing can be very effective but you have to do it properly," said Ocean County Health Coordinator Dan Regyne. "It's not playtime. It doesn't mean that while I'm off from school for two weeks it's like a snow day where you're getting together with friends to go sledding. The weather is nicer but we don't need people going out into the community and going to the mall and bowling alleys and the movie theaters."

**BM

'It's not playtime:' Outbreak closes NJ schools — and malls, movie theaters

 

[Henry2326]

FRANCOIS BALLOUX

I believe that the covid-19 pandemic is the most serious global public health threat humanity faced since the 1918/19 influenza pandemic. There are major differences between the two events but I suspect there will also be similarities that may emerge once we look back. (3/12)

The most plausible scenario to me is for the covid-19 pandemic to wane in the late spring (in the Northern hemisphere), and come back as a second wave in the winter, which I expect could be even worse than what we're facing now. Pic below is what happened in 1918/19. (4/12) Francois Balloux on Twitter

Predictions from any model are only as good as the data that parametrised it. There are two major unknowns at this stage. (1) We don't know to what extent covid-19 transmission will be seasonal. (2) We don’t know if covid-19 infection induces long-lasting immunity. (5/12)

Seasonality is difficult to predict without time-series. Comparison between regions for the covid-19 pandemic suggests some seasonality, but likely less than for influenza. This would be roughly in line with other Coronaviridae (common cold and MERS). (6/12)

How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). If this were to be confirmed, it would add to the challenge of managing the pandemic. (7/12)

Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’ approaches. Devising an effective strategy would be even more challenging under low seasonal forcing. It would also considerably complicate effective vaccination campaigns. (8/12)

The covid-19 pandemic is an extremely challenging problem and there are still many unknowns. There is no simple fix, and poorly thought-out interventions could make the situation even worse, massively so. (10/12)

The covid-19 pandemic is not just an epidemiological problem. It is a ‘Global Health’ problem, that can only be tackled with an integrated and global approach. For example, there is no such thing as a choice between managing the pandemic vs. protecting the economy. (11/12)

Health and the economy are closely linked. The correlation between per-capita GDP and health (life expectancy) is essentially perfect. If the covid-19 pandemic leads to a global economy collapse, many more lives will be lost than covid-19 would ever be able to claim. (12/12) phttps://t.co/ZXcj2s8PAA

What about this? Relationships between Log(GDP) and life expectancy over time for 17 countries (pic below).
Same source https://t.co/xMyuHHOuvm (which I embarrassingly failed to cite in my previous thread) Francois Balloux on Twitter

Francois Balloux on Twitter

STAY HOME, SAVE LIVES

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Preparing for COVID-19? Here’s what doctors say you need
Updated: Mar 14, 2020 / 09:44 PM MDT

“He recommends having small quantities of the following items in your house.

Acetaminophen (Tylenol)
Ibuprofen (Advil)
Nyquil / Dayquil / Mucinex (or generic)”

( @dixiegirl1035 , @LaborDayRN )

Yes, he is saying to have those on hand for cold/flu MOO

 

[Henry2326]

NEW YORK CITY

As of today, 50 known cases, 1 death in NYC. Bellevue Hospital decided Fri AM to stop all elective cases. Pull patients out of the ED to decompress. Only 1 visitor per pt. Redistribute workforce to support ED and MICU. All basic, essential steps.
Manish Tandon on Twitter

As of this a.m. NewYork-Presbyterian is postponing all elective surgeries at it's 13 hospitals to preserve beds/equipment/supplies for what's about to hit.
I sincerely hope *every* hospital in NYC is doing the same.
Mark D. Levine on Twitter

NYU Langone doing the same.
Shiran Pasternak on Twitter

My husband's hospital, Valley Hospital in Ridgewood,nj, just announced the same.
Rabbi Rachel Kahn-Troster on Twitter



STAY HOME, SAVE LIVES

 

[margarita25]

Yes, he is saying to have those on hand for cold/flu MOO

You’re right duh, sorry.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

are there state by state websites set up or only the john hopkins one? i have not been able to find much info about mississippi, except that they only have 1 case (which i find ridiculously impossible. i bet they don't have tests). i am in sweden, but i am from mississippi, and my entire family is there. seeing how quickly it's spreading across the states now, it can only be a matter of time before it's widespread. sigh...

Here ya go...Mississippi site Coronavirus COVID-19 - Mississippi State Department of Health for their state health department.

Here is site to track every case in US including Mississippi Tracking Every Coronavirus Case in the U.S.: Full Map - there are others too. It appears 6 cases shown in that state currently.

HTH

 

[swedeheart]

Here ya go...Mississippi site Coronavirus COVID-19 - Mississippi State Department of Health for their state health department.

Here is site to track every case in US including Mississippi Tracking Every Coronavirus Case in the U.S.: Full Map - there are others too. It appears 6 cases shown in that state currently.

HTH

thank you so much, @dixiegirl1035 ! <3

 

[margarita25]

What to Know

• U.S. coronavirus cases have surpassed 2,000; more than four dozen people have died, including two people in New Jersey and two people in New York
• The state of New York has more than 700 cases; most of the cases are in NYC and Westchester
• Governors in New York and New Jersey have declared states of emergency, and the usage of public transit is plunging

Four COVID-19 Deaths in NY, NJ as Tri-State Cases Surpass 700; New U.S. Travel Limits in Place
Updated on March 14, 2020 at 11:49 pm

 

[dixiegirl1035]

FRANCOIS BALLOUX

I believe that the covid-19 pandemic is the most serious global public health threat humanity faced since the 1918/19 influenza pandemic. There are major differences between the two events but I suspect there will also be similarities that may emerge once we look back. (3/12)

The most plausible scenario to me is for the covid-19 pandemic to wane in the late spring (in the Northern hemisphere), and come back as a second wave in the winter, which I expect could be even worse than what we're facing now. Pic below is what happened in 1918/19. (4/12) Francois Balloux on Twitter

Predictions from any model are only as good as the data that parametrised it. There are two major unknowns at this stage. (1) We don't know to what extent covid-19 transmission will be seasonal. (2) We don’t know if covid-19 infection induces long-lasting immunity. (5/12)

Seasonality is difficult to predict without time-series. Comparison between regions for the covid-19 pandemic suggests some seasonality, but likely less than for influenza. This would be roughly in line with other Coronaviridae (common cold and MERS). (6/12)

How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). If this were to be confirmed, it would add to the challenge of managing the pandemic. (7/12)

Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’ approaches. Devising an effective strategy would be even more challenging under low seasonal forcing. It would also considerably complicate effective vaccination campaigns. (8/12)

The covid-19 pandemic is an extremely challenging problem and there are still many unknowns. There is no simple fix, and poorly thought-out interventions could make the situation even worse, massively so. (10/12)

The covid-19 pandemic is not just an epidemiological problem. It is a ‘Global Health’ problem, that can only be tackled with an integrated and global approach. For example, there is no such thing as a choice between managing the pandemic vs. protecting the economy. (11/12)

Health and the economy are closely linked. The correlation between per-capita GDP and health (life expectancy) is essentially perfect. If the covid-19 pandemic leads to a global economy collapse, many more lives will be lost than covid-19 would ever be able to claim. (12/12) phttps://t.co/ZXcj2s8PAA

What about this? Relationships between Log(GDP) and life expectancy over time for 17 countries (pic below).
Same source https://t.co/xMyuHHOuvm (which I embarrassingly failed to cite in my previous thread) Francois Balloux on Twitter

Francois Balloux on Twitter

STAY HOME, SAVE LIVES

I had no idea that the second and third waves for the spanish flu were greater than the first wave. egads.....

 

[Henry2326]

Last night....3/14/20....glad the odds are 1 in 4600 now rather than June at 1 to 2 to get it.....

This is the scene at O’Hare airport. The traveler who took the photo said it’s a 6-hour wait for bags then on to customs for 2-4 more of waiting in shoulder-to-shoulder crowds. Police are handing out water and disinfectant wipes. @fly2ohare #ord #coronavirus #COVID19 Brooke Geiger McDonald on Twitter
Brooke Geiger McDonald on Twitter

STAY HOME, SAVE LIVES