"Ah crap, I put the zeroes in the wrong place again. Dammit!" - Neil Ferguson yesterday.
Don't sweat it, bud. We all make trillion dollar mistakes.
March 17th- The Imperial College London group led by Neil Ferguson reported that if nothing was done by governments and individuals and the pandemic remained uncontrolled, 510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States over the course of the outbreak.
March 25th-
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
Ferguson now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick.
Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model