Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #47

[tresir2012]

Farmers who raise dairy cows (dairies is what I call them) in the US do not do that kind of processing. At least, no where in the American west and we have quite a bit of dairy product. Even in Wisconsin, they don't.

The place where the cows are fed and milked is not where they make shelf stable milk - that's a couple of processes away. The milk goes into huge tanks and is transported to the UHF (or other) factory. Industrial milk packing.

^That's New Zealand, so it's all shiny and pretty, but it's the same overall process in the US.

Truck drivers have to be involved, and many workers have to be involved both in getting the milk into the tanker and then, processing it at the plant. We could declare all of these essential workers, but we're already seeing CV higher in truck drivers. Still, if the workers have protection (and the ones at the factory who aren't on the actual production floor - all the bookkeepers, payroll, procurement and logistics people - would need PPE), they could go forward.

But let's face it, these states were not at the ready with PPE at all. So yep, all of the workers in the chain would have to risk CV19 to get that done. Immunity tests much needed. Truckers are saying they need places to eat and go to the restroom without fear of CoVid. And they are entitled to that. Workers in UHF factories would want protection from the truck drivers - so we have to fix that whole chain.

Myself, I just can't handle putting one group of workers at risk until we've gotten PPE and other businesses open. Better sanitation at diesel pumps, instruction for truck drivers on what to do, etc. Remember, CV thrives for a while on metal - and those trucks are metal. Would they need to be sanitized? How often? All of that needs to be worked out - although if people are comfortable with industrial dairy workers (not farmers) getting more CV than the rest of us, they will probably reopen.

Well the food industry are essential workers so will all still be working unless off sick. Here in UK we call the processing plants dairies rather than the farms, unless the farm makes cheese on site for example, then we would call that a dairy. All milking herd farms are called dairy farms but are not all dairies. Confusing? Yep.

 

[tresir2012]

Farmers could dry up a percentage of their cows. Minimize their work load and reduce the high protein feed costs.

I guess they might take the opportunity to send the oldest, lamest ones to the abattoir. I watch a herd of dairy cows going in to be milked every day and there are always the few older ones lagging behind at the back.

 

[tresir2012]

I just checked, and it seems like it takes 30 days to successfully "dry out" a cow. Also to appear to have something to do with calving (I agree I'm no farm expert). This could be great, if the farmer is willing to accept that the economy is dead for, at this point, I'm guessing minimum 60+ days/2 months. They're probably hoping it's not.

Yes also the longer between calving that they go then the yield goes down. The older ones who have calved several times probably will get "retired" rather than be put in calf again.

 

[tresir2012]

I’ve never worked for a company with a company pension plan and neither has hub.
A 401k - yes.
Got to have a hardship exception to get that 401k money out.
I can start drawing social security at 67 and a half and hub is later than me.
A lot of us have to work until we can draw social security - especially now since our 401k is a lot less. We had just met with our financial planner in January and thought we had a plan and would be ok.
Well - that’s shot all to heck now!

We have a state pension also in UK as well as private plans like your 401k. Also there is a Pension Credit system. Not everyone has private plans though.

 

[tresir2012]

My understanding of this is that a "pandemic" is declared when the outbreak actually meets the definition of a pandemic. It's a bit academic.

Prior to meeting the definition of a pandemic, on 30 January 2020, WHO Director-General, Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus declared that the outbreak of COVID-19 caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (1).

By Jan 20th, cases had been discovered in 4 countries - China (278 cases), Thailand (2 cases), Japan (1 case) and the Republic of Korea (1 case). (2.) With these small number of cases, the WHO could not define this outbreak as a pandemic, but they were already raising the alarms.

Even by Mar 11th, because of the alarming levels of spread and severity, and because of the alarming levels of inaction by affected nations, the WHO made the assessment that COVID-19 was a pandemic.

Some leaders are criticizing the WHO for not calling it a pandemic sooner. But, the WHO called it a pandemic when it was evident that government leaders were not taking action to stop the spread.

(1.) Impact of COVID-19 on Prequalification activities

(2). https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4

Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports

By 21 Jan the first case was in the US though IIRC. That's a long while before 11th March.

 

[tresir2012]

Whoa! Yesterday it was One million, and today it's up to £11,732,986.48!!!!!! Now THAT's an exponential curve that's not flattening out yet

That's amazing isn't it?

 

[they'll get you]

DBM
Double post.

 

[they'll get you]

Australia .7:42pm Apr 16, 2020

Virgin to begin flying again; PM says restrictions to last at least four weeks; Decision made on state schools; Petrol prices drop below $1 a litre
"Our best estimate at the moment in Australia is for every 10 infectious cases, they're only reproducing another five and this shows our epidemic at the moment is in decline," the Doherty Institute's epidemiology director Professor Jodie McVernon said on Thursday.

"That's great because it shows the public health measures that have been in place have been very effective in limiting the spread of this disease. But it doesn't let us be complacent."
'Our attention has turned to the road out'

Australia
Confirmed 6,468
Recovered 3,747
Deaths 63

 

[tresir2012]

State Department leaked cables renew theories on origin of coronavirus

This is worrying. Haven't seen this before.

"A Chinese laboratory at the center of new theories about how the coronavirus pandemic started was the subject of multiple urgent warnings inside the U.S. State Departmenttwo years ago, according to a new report.


U.S. Embassy officials warned in January 2018 about inadequate safety at the Wuhan Institute of Virology lab and passed on information about scientists conducting risky research on coronavirus from bats, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.

IF CHINA ACTED EARLIER, CORONAVIRUS CASES COULD HAVE BEEN CUT BY AS MUCH AS 95 PERCENT, FDA CHIEF

Those cables have renewed speculation inside the U.S. government about whether Wuhan-based labs were the source of the novel coronavirus, although no firm connection has been established. The theory, however, has gained traction in recent days."

Bumping

 

[tresir2012]

The stats are out there for COVID-19, just not all the stats. A favorite ploy is to show a map with the number of cases per country, which is of course infinitely useless since countries have different sizes and populations. Have been waiting for a world map of COVID cases per unit of population. Still waiting...

So I hacked my own map, using Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,083,236 Cases and 134,610 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer stats. Since confirmed CV cases are based on number of tests, and therefore not an indicator of much, I plotted deaths which are absolute. This map represents the number of deaths per 1 million population for all countries (no, I didn't have energy to find Moldova). It is kind of a heat scale with red = worst, with a crude legend inserted. Countries that have less than 10 deaths per million are white.

View attachment 243205

What obvious is that south of not just the Equator, but the Tropic of Cancer, where it is warmer- there are no countries with greater than 10 deaths per 1 million.
The highest rate is Spain at 402 per 1 million. The U.S. is at 86 and climbing, expected to end up around 206 for this outbreak (IHME).

So does coronavirus not handle warmth and humidity well? Typically viruses do not. On coronavirus, experts say they don't know or give an opinion sometimes led by bias (from what I've seen). Are there other explanations for low rates below the T of C, such as non-reporting, slow onset of spread, less population, lower degree of international travel, etc? On the other hand, the majority of these countries are not equipped to slow the spread of a pandemic, and there are cases all across the southern hemisphere.

I'm going with heat and humidity slows the spread of coronavirus, and heading to the beach. Of course, at an appropriate time and with recommended distancing.

And it gives hope that we can get a break and catch up on testing and healthcare supplies for the fall.

Really useful info thanks. Spain and Italy really took the hit didn't they? However it was mainly Northern Italy which has cold winters and ski resorts so that puzzles me. Also, London UK has taken the brunt of deaths here in the UK as Madrid in Spain so I am also wondering if pollution had a hand also somewhere, not just temperatures.

 

[tmar]

How Australia IGNORED the World Health Organisation | Daily Mail Online
...
Indeed, the Australian government has been one step ahead of the WHO since even before the deadly virus reached Australian shores on 25 January.

That week, while the WHO director-general was busy saying China should be 'congratulated' for protecting 'the people of the world', the Australian government was hatching a national plan to stop the virus.

On February 1, when there were 14,000 recorded cases in the world, Australia banned flights from China.

Two days later, on February 3, the WHO was still telling countries not to initiate travel bans.
Director-General Tedros Adhanom stood up in front of the world's media and said there was no need for measures that 'unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade'.
,,,
During a WHO meeting that day, China's delegate Li Song said banning Chinese people from travelling was 'seriously against recommendation by the WHO.'
But Scott Morrison took no notice and extended the ban before also blocking flights from Iran, South Korea and Italy, which also suffered outbreaks in February.

In radio interview with Alan Jones on 2GB on February 6, Mr Morrison backed his decision to ignore the WHO.

'We've noted all the things the WHO and others said. But frankly, we're making the calls based on what we think is best for Australia,' he said.

Then, on February 27, Australia became one of the first countries in the world to publicly declare the crisis had 'pandemic potential'.
...
Mr Morrison told news reporters that afternoon: 'Based on the expert medical advice we have received, there is every indication that the world will soon enter a pandemic phase of the coronavirus.'

Meanwhile, the WHO was still refusing to use the word even as cases around the globe soared to 83,000.

'If misused, [the word] can cause unreasonable fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over,' director-general Adhanom said.

Finally, after huge international pressure, the WHO declared a pandemic on 11 March, two weeks after Mr Morrison used the word.
...

 

[Trino]

Looking back several post pages, I am discouraged to read posts that are willing to sacrifice the older generation in favor of getting back to work/school. WS has always been inclusive, and I'm guessing there are a number of older and vulnerable posters here. Can we not promote the herd mentality and post opinions that would sacrifice an entire generation of our population?

 

[tresir2012]

I believe this but then I have been watching all the Outbreak and deadly virus movies for the past 2 weeks to try and calm myself

Have you seen Contagion? I watched it again recently with new eyes.

 

[tresir2012]

Looking back several post pages, I am discouraged to read posts that are willing to sacrifice the older generation in favor of getting back to work/school. WS has always been inclusive, and I'm guessing there are a number of older and vulnerable posters here. Can we not promote the herd mentality and post opinions that would sacrifice an entire generation of our population?

I have not seen those posts but I have 8 pages to go to catch up.

 

[Gardenista]

dbm

 

[Trino]

Of Interest in Reopening...
"You can't replace lockdown with nothing," Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO's emergencies program, said at a recent briefing. Stressing the importance of a well-informed and committed population, he added, "We are going to have to change our behaviors for the foreseeable future."

Any government that wants to start lifting restrictions, said Tedros of WHO, must first meet six conditions:

1. Disease transmission is under control

2. Health systems are able to "detect, test, isolate and treat every case and trace every contact"

3. Hot spot risks are minimized in vulnerable places, such as nursing homes

4. Schools, workplaces and other essential places have established preventive measures

5. The risk of importing new cases "can be managed"

6. Communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to live under a new normal

 

[cody22]

Good morning to all from West Texas.... Announcement - For the first time since this Virus stuff started I was able to buy at my local HEB, a 1# bag of carrots and a 12 pack of some "off brand" of toilet paper. I gave Mrs.22 the carrots immediately. I am saving the package of toilet paper to give her as a 30th Wedding Anniversary present on our upcoming May 19th Anniversary occasion.......Yall stay safe today......Front yard work awaits me, but first a little more coffee......mr.romancetrophyhusbandcody22....moo

 

[tresir2012]

Chris Cuomo’s wife Cristina tests positive for coronavirus

I'm saying nothing.

 

[tresir2012]

Should I assume that entities like airlines and trains will begin running at the earliest times possible (unless they have to cross the boundary of a state that has a longer quarantine)?

How will that get worked out. How will truckers drive into another state, if that state has "essential goods only" in place?

I want to know badly.

I guess they won't stop in a "closed" state.

 

[katydid23]

Looking back several post pages, I am discouraged to read posts that are willing to sacrifice the older generation in favor of getting back to work/school. WS has always been inclusive, and I'm guessing there are a number of older and vulnerable posters here. Can we not promote the herd mentality and post opinions that would sacrifice an entire generation of our population?

I am 68, so not a spring chicken. But I don't feel like I am being sacrificed.

I am looking at the big picture. My kids are in their 20's and 30's. They have been sheltering in place for a month, going shopping for my husband and I, taking care of their children, trying to work from home and pay expenses on much smaller payroll checks, etc.

Two of my kids are being called back to work next week. I support that decision. It's time for them to go back into the real world and help us rev up our economy and try to get our National recovery going.

I am not being sacrificed. My hubby and I will stay locked down in our little cottage, as we have for the past month. That will not change. We haven't seen our precious grand baby in a month, other than FaceTime or Skype. I'd LOVE to hug and kiss her sweet face. But I cannot do so yet.

But I am not being sacrificed. The people who are 'sacrificing' are the essential workers who have been on the frontlines, trying to keep the hospitals going and the food supply lines going, along with the first responders, keeping us safe.

I am sitting on my couch, listening to the news and working on my laptop, cosy and safe, happy to be healthy so far.

Why should the rest of the world STOP just because some of us are more vulnerable and at risk than the rest of the population? Someone has to go back to work. And it can't be me at this point.

I am not being sacrificed. I am being protected as long as I decide to stay sheltered in place.