Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #50

[10ofRods]

Agree. COVID-19 death rate is often misquoted by the media or politicians to support what they are selling. It isn't known and should never be used as a metric. As you say, it is defined by death % per infected people, and we don't know the number of infected people.

The LA study results were astounding but was deeply flawed in how the subjects were selected. But astounding enough that I have to believe it is being repeated right now in randomized studies. And it can be done pretty quickly to give us our first look at a decent estimate of actual COVID-19 death rate. Which is incredibly important to understand the best approach to stop it.

IMO, the actual death rate may be between 0.2 and 0.4% based on the various flawed information that is out there. Still very dangerous since there is no vaccine.

I hope it's closer to 0.2% of all humans but 0.4-5 seems more likely.

However of the symptomatic, it's obviously much higher (13-15% doesn't seem like a wild estimate). Do the asymptomatic individuals have permanent immunity? Or, as with measles, mumps, rubella and a series of other viruses, will the second hit get them too? We don't know yet.

0.2% means that 2 out every 1000 people will die. 1 in 500. The median age in the US is about 68-69, which means that half are under 69 (in the US, we have nearly as many people dying in their 40's and 50's as in their early 60's). Many reasons. 0.5% means 5 out 1000 or 1 out of 200. That's a lot.

Healthcare workers and other essential workers and nursing home residents will continue to lead in number of deaths. Of people who get serious symptoms, it may be more like 10-20% who die, depending on demographics - that's an enormous healthcare load, regardless of overall mortality rates.

We need to know the rate of total infection and how many people are (relatively) asymptomatic. Given that people consider themselves "not sick" when they are coughing, sneezing and have red eyes - but no fever - it's going to be interesting and difficult research to get done. The mildly symptomatic may include many of us.

The Santa Clara County showed a 3% infection rate (way lower than other places - San Francisco's study is 30% of people with antibodies). Both studies are problematic, but very different locales. New York's is about 30% last time I read - and I think that's true for Spain and Italy as well.

 

[j_in_c]

But why shouldn't Ruth Chris receive a business loan? They pay a lot of state and federal taxes, employ a bunch of people, pay a lot of vendors and other local services, etc etc...

Why should they be exempt from getting a loan when they are having obvious financial losses like every other restaurant is now?

The main concern is that the federal program was intended for *small* business owners who do not have access to other forms of capital infusions. Larger, profitable companies have many options and opportunities for investment capital and this program was meant to help many in small increments as opposed to shake shack and ruth chris taking large chunks of it. I hope public pressure is applied as it was to shake shack and that the funding is returned and re-allocated as intended.

 

[rodneymullenmg]

The main concern is that the federal program was intended for *small* business owners who do not have access to other forms of capital infusions. Larger, profitable companies have many options and opportunities for investment capital and this program was meant to help many in small increments as opposed to shake shack and ruth chris taking large chunks of it. I hope public pressure is applied as it was to shake shack and that the funding is returned and re-allocated as intended.

100% agree.
IMO the Gov should help workers, not companies.

 

[10ofRods]

Wow. Is this new info? More than half of Ireland's total deaths are from residential homes ( nursing and care homes ) ?

"Of the 769 deaths in lab-confirmed cases, some 412 are associated with residents of residential care settings, with 348 of those associated with nursing homes.

That doesn't really jive with a median age of 48. I presume they're testing only the symptomatic. Maybe they've tested lots of healthcare workers. I sure do hope so.

 

[katydid23]

Rancho Cordova scientists hope to market affordable coronavirus treatment in 2 months


Rancho Cordova scientists hope to market affordable coronavirus treatment in 2 months

Scientists in the Sacramento area believe they have developed a way to keep the new coronavirus from finding the doorknob that it typically turns to enter human lung cells.


Chris Xu, the CEO of Rancho Cordova-based ThermoGenesis, said the biopharmaceutical treatment could go to market within two months.

“We are so advanced at this because we leveraged our unique global resources,” Xu said. “When this epidemic started to surface in Asia, we have several top universities in China where we collaborate and developed the science behind this and did the screening. So now we are probably at least four to six months ahead of any other comparable research institution here (in the US).”

In addition, the company is now marketing a diagnostic kit that will allow health care professionals to tell patients whether they’ve already had COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, and have developed antibodies that can help fight the disease, Xu said. The company also is requesting federal approval to market this kit directly to consumers.

Even as the company developed this antibody assay, Xu said, Thermogenesis was using test results to identify people who recently recovered from COVID-19 to identify those who had the strongest antibody response.

The coronavirus gets into the human body by attaching itself to an enzyme that helps to regulate blood pressure. Nicknamed ACE2 by researchers, the angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 has regions where the new coronvirus can easily latch onto its surface.

Once the new coronavirus, formally known as SARS-CoV-2, gets inside cells, it starts replicating itself and hijacking control of the body’s system. While this takeover won’t be virulent for most people, it can result in severe symptoms of fever, coughing and shortness of breath for some.

The viral invasion can compromise the body’s ability to stave off fever and process oxygen to the point that as many as 20 percent of those infected require hospitalization.

In the last few weeks, Xu said, MD Anderson Cancer Center, the Mayo Clinic and other major institutions have launched programs using convalescent plasma, blood plasma from people who have recovered from the disease, to treat other COVID-19 patients.

 

[rodneymullenmg]

Disney heir criticises $1.5bn in bonuses and dividends as company cuts pay

An heir to the Walt Disney fortune has criticised the company for protecting executive bonuses and dividends of more than $1.5bn (£1.2bn) while cutting the pay of more than 100,000 workers to help weather the financial impact of coronavirus.

Abigail Disney, an Emmy award-winning film-maker and a granddaughter of the company’s co-founder Roy Disney, launched a Twitter tirade against the world’s biggest entertainment group over its treatment of employees.

Disney, who in the past has criticised the lucrative pay packages of the executive chairman, Bob Iger, said the $1.5bn in typical dividend payouts would keep staff paid for months.

 

[LadyL]

sad

Texas girl, 10, who made hand sewn coronavirus masks for medics is killed in ATV accident | Daily Mail Online

 

[10ofRods]

Thing is: with the flu there are various strains- when they make the vaccine every year they try to guess (for lack of a better word) what strains will be present. Sometimes they are wrong, and when they are the vaccine doesn't work, although they say one should still get the vaccine ( I never have): However, with the coronavirus, i don't think there is the same concern (different strains- though there could be i guess). so this seems to be horse of a different color.

So...how is CoVid-19 different?

https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

(Chart of variants is about halfway down - too many for me to easily count).

It's not theoretical. There are two main strains (and they seem to have distinct clinical presentations) and then myriad other variations. And it continues to mutate daily, as it has millions of hosts.

 

[oviedo]

Here are the largest public companies taking payroll loans meant for small businesses
snipped
The PPP (Payroll Protection Program) was designed to help the nation’s smallest, mom-and-pop shops keep employees on payroll and prevent mass layoffs across the country amid the coronavirus pandemic.
-----------
I think this is part of the problem - the CARES act was designed for "small business" but somehow larger businesses snapped up all the money first IMO leaving the small business owners with nothing. Payroll reports were the main requirements - there didn't seem to be a "need" based assessment at least from those that I know who received the money and those that did not.
JMO

 

[Recidivist]

Yes, by keeping their employees on the payroll. Don't we want them to do that?

Yes, I do. That is why I spent 3 frustrating days filling out applications, and collecting the supporting required documents. We have not received a penny.

 

[10ofRods]

The new "first patient" in Santa Clara (who died February 7) had been to Wuhan, IIRC. Came back feeling sick, rode in a taxi, went to a restaurant, went to a grocery store, etc. The taxi driver didn't get CV. Neither did anyone at that restaurant, neither did anyone at that grocery store. So in addition to finding this person, the Santa Clara County Medical Examiner's office is doing contact tracing. I assume they've done serological testing on all those people (maybe not, though - the full study isn't published yet).

Meanwhile, another patient showed up in Washington and another in Santa Clara. The entire west coast has lots of connections to Asia and there's tons of manufacturing of electronics in Wuhan, so people besides Chinese-Americans go back and forth.

The same strain carried by that Feb 7 patient is the one that first showed up in New York, apparently. Many West Coast CV victims have a different strain to that one.

 

[oviedo]

Yes, I do. That is why I spent 3 frustrating days filling out applications, and collecting the supporting required documents. We have not received a penny.

interesting in my small sampling every single small business (by my definition less than 50 employees) did not get a dime, but those with over 200 did - go figure.
JMO

 

[mickey2942]

Some statewide restrictions to be lifted next week

Well, looks like Montana is open for business. My opinion is that folks will flock here for vacation, and back up will go the numbers.

Yellowstone NP has huge employee dorms, to keep things running at the park. May as well rename them "Diamond Princess" dorms. Set up a testing station right by "Old Faithful". JMO.

 

[margarita25]

So, I had mentioned earlier about a family I know that had CV and thankfully recovered at home.

One child tested positive, but had no symptoms. Another child who was the first to get sick tested negative. Both parents tested positive.

Well the husband experienced worse symptoms than the wife, higher fever, etc.

The two adults recently had the serology antibody testing, and from what I understand the wife has more antibodies, enough to donate, but the husband does not. They were both sick at the same time.

Moo. Jmo.

 

[Inthedetails]

Payroll reports were the main requirements - there didn't seem to be a "need" based assessment at least from those that I know who received the money and those that did not.
JMO

Snipped

Disappointing that companies took what they didn't need when others were then left without. I'm not surprised by greed, but disappointed.

jmo

 

[10ofRods]

But why shouldn't Ruth Chris receive a business loan? They pay a lot of state and federal taxes, employ a bunch of people, pay a lot of vendors and other local services, etc etc...

Why should they be exempt from getting a loan when they are having obvious financial losses like every other restaurant is now?

Exactly. A mom and pop business with 2 employees going under is sad, but not economically consequential. Medium sized businesses like Ruth Chris have a greater impact if they go under. When Macy's, Neiman Marcus, JC Penney's and other department stores all file for bankruptcy and close their doors, that's a lot of people.

Sephora laid off 25,000 and will probably never reopen in the real world in the same way again. Mail order business remains strong, but all those retail associates are superfluous to the process of buying makeup these days.

Without those mall anchors, the malls are doomed too, along with the food courts, security guards, unloaders, stockers, etc. It's going to be drop shipping from warehouses from now on, that's my prediction. MOO.

Everyone should be getting some help, but to do it sensibly would take a national task force (that started meeting 5 years ago - which is about the time we slowed and then stopped any national level planning). Big planning is hard anyway, it's a weakness of every system.

 

[LadyL]

Air-conditioning spread the coronavirus to 9 people sitting near an infected person in a restaurant, researchers say. It has huge implications for the service industry.

Air-conditioning spread the coronavirus to 9 people sitting near an infected person in a restaurant, researchers say. It has huge implications for the service industry.

 

[10ofRods]

So, I had mentioned earlier about a family I know that had CV and thankfully recovered at home.

One child tested positive, but had no symptoms. Another child who was the first to get sick tested negative. Both parents tested positive.

Well the husband experienced worse symptoms than the wife, higher fever, etc.

The two adults recently had the serology antibody testing, and from what I understand the wife has more antibodies, enough to donate, but the husband does not. They were both sick at the same time.

Moo. Jmo.

This is fascinating, @margarita25 Really good on-the-ground data. Sounds like the antibody formation was really variable in this family. That first kid testing negative is probably an artifact of the test - they should test again (but most places won't let them do that easily).

Interesting that husband didn't get to the antibody formation stage and was so sick. I hope he's okay (this virus damages testicular tissue preferentially, so men have a reason to worry about the after-effects; in some men it's enough to reduce testosterone production permanently and in a very few, they end up sterile).

 

[katydid23]

100% agree.
IMO the Gov should help workers, not companies.

The government needs to help companies. Companies are what fuels the government snd supports the government with tax support. Without businesses and companies, Government would collapse.

The government would not be able to help workers if there were no successful businesses supporting the tax base.

And how can the government support workers without helping companies? Companies are made up of workers.

Without companies, there are no workers. Without workers, there are no companies. I don't see how we can separate them from each other.

 

[10ofRods]

Rancho Cordova scientists hope to market affordable coronavirus treatment in 2 months


Rancho Cordova scientists hope to market affordable coronavirus treatment in 2 months

Scientists in the Sacramento area believe they have developed a way to keep the new coronavirus from finding the doorknob that it typically turns to enter human lung cells.


Chris Xu, the CEO of Rancho Cordova-based ThermoGenesis, said the biopharmaceutical treatment could go to market within two months.

“We are so advanced at this because we leveraged our unique global resources,” Xu said. “When this epidemic started to surface in Asia, we have several top universities in China where we collaborate and developed the science behind this and did the screening. So now we are probably at least four to six months ahead of any other comparable research institution here (in the US).”

In addition, the company is now marketing a diagnostic kit that will allow health care professionals to tell patients whether they’ve already had COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, and have developed antibodies that can help fight the disease, Xu said. The company also is requesting federal approval to market this kit directly to consumers.

Even as the company developed this antibody assay, Xu said, Thermogenesis was using test results to identify people who recently recovered from COVID-19 to identify those who had the strongest antibody response.

The coronavirus gets into the human body by attaching itself to an enzyme that helps to regulate blood pressure. Nicknamed ACE2 by researchers, the angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 has regions where the new coronvirus can easily latch onto its surface.

Once the new coronavirus, formally known as SARS-CoV-2, gets inside cells, it starts replicating itself and hijacking control of the body’s system. While this takeover won’t be virulent for most people, it can result in severe symptoms of fever, coughing and shortness of breath for some.

The viral invasion can compromise the body’s ability to stave off fever and process oxygen to the point that as many as 20 percent of those infected require hospitalization.

In the last few weeks, Xu said, MD Anderson Cancer Center, the Mayo Clinic and other major institutions have launched programs using convalescent plasma, blood plasma from people who have recovered from the disease, to treat other COVID-19 patients.

This is excellent news and written an easily understandable manner. I hope everyone reads this carefully. This is treatment, not vaccine and it is part of cooperation with what's already known from the genomic studies in China (as well as the US of course).

I think this theorized mechanism of CoVid's lethal attack is exactly right and each day, there's more evidence about ACE2, blood pressure, and the role that ACE2's hijacking plays in causing thrombosis and deterioration of veins and other similar tissues throughout the body.