Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #51

[BUF]

Navy Leaders Recommend Reinstating Roosevelt Captain Fired Over Virus Warning

 

[gngr~snap]

Anything coming from Asia is taking forever. I've been wait 3 weeks for special light bulbs and Japanese skin care.

Yeah, I think they are coming from Guongdong Schenzhen yep.
They will sit in the sun a few days!!
Moo

 

[CoverMeCagney]

For the bibliophiles amongst you, check out this Tweet

You think you're having a bad week? My poor colleague has just been in to do her weekly check of the library building. The cleaner has started deep cleaning the space (so far, so good) and has cleaned the shelves but has put 18.5 bays of books back on IN SIZE ORDER.

Cleaner reorganises library books in size order

 

[pocketaccent]

(@KALI might be interested in this?)

Coronavirus: Newsom announces program for local eateries to prepare, deliver meals to seniors amid COVID-19 pandemic

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (KABC) -- In a move he says will allow restaurants across the state to rehire workers, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Friday an agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and local governments that will employ eateries to prepare and deliver three meals a day to eligible seniors.

The governor said during his daily coronavirus press conference that the first-in-the-nation partnership will provide an "unlimited" number of meals, with restaurants being reimbursed at rates up to $16 for each breakfast, $17 for each lunch and $28 for each dinner.

"Working with FEMA on ways to provide nutritious meals to our seniors, to get them delivered, but to also get them prepared. We started thinking about building a partnership with our restaurants industry, with kitchens, with our hospitality industry that's been ravaged by this pandemic," Newsom said. "This partnership will allow for the ability for restaurants to start rehiring people or keep people currently employed and start preparing meals, three meals a day, seven days a week and have those meals delivered to our seniors all throughout the state of California.
...

More information on the program program -- dubbed Restaurants Deliver: Home Meals for Older Californians'' can be found here.
...

 

[gngr~snap]

For the bibliophiles amongst you, check out this Tweet

You think you're having a bad week? My poor colleague has just been in to do her weekly check of the library building. The cleaner has started deep cleaning the space (so far, so good) and has cleaned the shelves but has put 18.5 bays of books back on IN SIZE ORDER.

Cleaner reorganises library books in size order

My mother graduated with a Master's Degree in Library Science from Belmont College in TN.
She is flipping in her grave right now. I KNOW it!
Moo

 

[pocketaccent]

How do I add @ in front of a screen name? My post #27 could be helpful for our KALI.

 

[Tillicum]

How do I add @ in front of a screen name? My post #27 could be helpful for our KALI.

Just type it in front of screen name. No space in between.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: Marianne Faithfull thankful for NHS staff who 'without doubt, saved her life'

Marianne Faithfull has thanked NHS staff for saving her life after being discharged from hospital following treatment for COVID-19.

The 73-year-old singer songwriter had been in hospital for just over three weeks, after being diagnosed with coronavirus.

Her recovery was confirmed in two posts on her official Twitter page on Wednesday night.

The first told her 10,000 followers: "We are really happy to say that Marianne has been discharged from hospital today, 22 days after being admitted suffering from the symptoms of COVID-19.

"She will continue to recuperate in London."

The second message paid tribute to all those who have wished Faithfull well, and the frontline medical staff who looked after her.

It said: "Marianne thanks you all for your kind messages of concern which have meant a great deal through what is a such a difficult time for so many.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Yeah, I think they are coming from Guongdong Schenzhen yep.
They will sit in the sun a few days!!
Moo

I really think that by the time anything arrives from Asia it's probably fine. I would only concern myself with the outer packaging.

 

[pocketaccent]

@Tillicum
LOL at myself. That was super easy. Thank you!

 

[Deleted member 158085]

For the bibliophiles amongst you, check out this Tweet

You think you're having a bad week? My poor colleague has just been in to do her weekly check of the library building. The cleaner has started deep cleaning the space (so far, so good) and has cleaned the shelves but has put 18.5 bays of books back on IN SIZE ORDER.

Cleaner reorganises library books in size order

I would strangle this person.

 

[10ofRods]

The US continues to climb in terms of CoVid cases, although the curve is now linear, not exponential.

We are coming close to 1 million confirmed cases of CoVid in the US, with few models capable of estimating the unknown cases (those range from 500,000 to 4 million, depending on which studies you favor). The exact number reported by state agencies is 894,000 but not all state agencies report in the morning - some report at noon PDT or 5 pm PDT.

Approximately 51,000 people have died in the US (not counting many nursing home victims or all deaths at home). That gives us a 6% case mortality rate (of people who have tested positive, 6% die). That's higher than in other nations, and our average age at death is lower (I can't find the most recent figure, but the CDC should have that soon).

Again, not all nursing home deaths are in the numbers, so the average age is not completely reflecting the reality.

One-third tend to be elderly, most all with pre-existing conditions.

Another third are not elderly, but many or most have pre-existing conditions (BMI over 30 is the main one), and one third are healthy adults, most of whom are either essential employees or are people in places where social distancing is either not required or not being enforced. Some are family members of essential employees or others who are not social distancing.

Coronavirus Dashboard

Per capita, the UK is in much worse shape. With about 1/5th population of the US (we have about 340,000,000 and they have about 67,000,000), their case mortality number is 19,506, almost all of it in England (very few in Scotland, with North Ireland doing fairly well, and Wales looking more like England, but of course, there's no London in Wales).

UK should be at around 10-11,000 if they were following the curve we have in the U.S. There's not a lot published, yet, on why or how UK is set to be on this particular and tragic course. They haven't tallied up all their nursing home deaths or deaths at home, either. So they have 2X the case mortality rate that we do, but their curving is still rising in linear fashion twice as fast as hours.

We are still seeing increases in our cases and our deaths, but the rate is slowing down.

I hope people realize that when we "plateau" that means that the mortality rate will remain the same or slightly less than it is right now. Yesterday we lost just under 1000 Americans. Small changes in reporting numbers affect the data, but that's slightly less than a 2% increase - not too bad. My prediction is that we'll plateau around 800-900 deaths a day for a while (it took Italy about 2-3 weeks to get from their original plateau down to half of their plateau number). They are at 450 deaths per day - which is where we *may* be in a month, except that some states are opening.

We shall see. 800 deaths per day is about 24000 deaths per month in the US. 400 deaths per day for the month after that is 12000 deaths. If we plateau right now, at about 1000 deaths, that's 30,000 in the next month. I think we'll be near 1000 deaths a day for the next week, so 25,000-30,000 deaths from April 25 to May 24 is certainly a grim possibility.

States vary in their ability to handle this extraordinary event. In California, the case mortality rate is 3.8% (and we're counting nursing home deaths, AFAIK, but not all deaths at home), there's another number that's important. We've only had 35,800 people go for testing, almost always because they had many or a few symptoms. In some more rural counties, it's far less than that. So, in those counties, there are "soft openings" of small businesses, beaches (but no congregating or sunbathing or anything like that - just exercising). IOW, we have a very low testing rate in California but many sample tests from various populations that appear to be asymptomatic or with mild symptoms. 1500 Californians have died out of 39,000,000 of us - as compared to 21,283 New Yorkers out of about 20 million. You can see what a stark difference that is.

So, when your friends interpret "on a plateau" or "the curve has flattened" to mean "this is all over now, we're fine, we're good," please let them know what your state or area is facing. California was initially predicted to peak at 126 deaths per day, then IMHE revised that downward to 62, but they were wrong. We have apparently peaked at around 116, so very close to the initial estimate.

But we had only 62 new deaths yesterday and only 332 new cases, which would seem that we are definitely on a downward slope. However, it's clear some counties haven't reported and are on a 2-3 day delay, so when the data are rectified, I'm guessing it'll be closer to 80-90.

 

[tresir2012]

How do I add @ in front of a screen name? My post #27 could be helpful for our KALI.

Just select edit post and before KALI insert the @. You may want to get rid of the parentheses.

So it should look like this @KALI and as you type it in a list of all users similar comes up and you can select the right one or continue typing manually. This post will now send an alert to KALI.

 

[Satchie]

I would strangle this person.

Tho, to be fair, this is bad training of the cleaner by library staff. Anyone hiring a cleaner needs to explain stuff like: don't throw out this, don't touch that.

 

[zecats]

I really think that by the time anything arrives from Asia it's probably fine. I would only concern myself with the outer packaging.

I sent a package to my grandkids and my son put it in his garage for a few days. I asked if he wasn't able to wear gloves, or open it with a knife and then wash knife and his hands to retrieve the goodies inside (mostly sticker books, games, and journals). He told me he was worried more about the inside items since they came from a CoVid house. Hmmm - I never thought about ourselves that way - as a CoVid house, but I reckon that's the case. We are labeled with a scarlet letter "C."

I did assure him the items had been inside and sealed up for at least 2 full weeks, so should be perfectly fine.

 

[10ofRods]

I sent a package to my grandkids and my son put it in his garage for a few days. I asked if he wasn't able to wear gloves, or open it with a knife and then wash knife and his hands to retrieve the goodies inside (mostly sticker books, games, and journals). He told me he was worried more about the inside items since they came from a CoVid house. Hmmm - I never thought about ourselves that way - as a CoVid house, but I reckon that's the case. We are labeled with a scarlet letter "C."

I did assure him the items had been inside and sealed up for at least 2 full weeks, so should be perfectly fine.

Right. I do understand the worry - most people are not on forums like this one or getting any reliable information at all. Getting into the habit of dealing with the outside packaging first, then washing up, seems important unless everyone is fine with something just sitting on their porch or in their front yard, or whatever. Our cardboard stays outside, depending on the item, we may open it fairly quickly (if it's been in transit for more than 3 days, I'm good with that, especially if it's in plastic, which almost everything is).

We let items that are intended to stay in boxes (kleenex, DVD sets, pasta) sit in a warm place for a few hours. It's 100F in our back room today. That means we cannot order boxes of chocolate candy.

 

[Sillybilly]

NO MATTER HOW FRUSTRATED YOU FEEL, HOW GRATEFUL YOU FEEL OR HOW YOU FEEL WITH ANY OF THE COMMENTS COMING FROM THE WHITEHOUSE OR THEIR ADMINISTRATION DO NOT PUT IT ON THIS THREAD. DO NOT PUT TOGETHER A POST THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A POLITICAL STATEMENT AND THEN TRY AND SAY IT IS NOT

Look, we all know what POTUS said and we can all choose to interpret his words as we wish. You may choose to think he is brilliant and God's gift, or you may choose to think otherwise.

Nothing that is said here will reverse what he said. WSer's have their own interpretations, so let's not have pages and pages of opinions, hundreds of links, and bickering over what he did or did not mean and what everyone else in the world thinks about it.

Irresponsible, possibly ... well intended, possibly. What he said, how he said it ... whatever his intentions, they can be interpreted as ambiguous so let's just move on for the overall good of the thread ... and our sanity. Please and Thank You.

 

[Curious Me]

Update-- I sent my doctor pics of my Covid like toe saying I felt absolutely fine otherwise. Do I need to do anything?

Substitute doctor replied saying they are overwhelmed and don't worry too much about my toes for now unless I have other symptoms. I knew I'd get that type of answer, and the article said as much, but people always urge you to bother your doctor.

Ask your doctor, see your doctor... I think doctors hate those drug commercials that always say "ask your doctor". Doctors are truly overwhelmed right now in some states hit hard by the virus.

MOO, it's up to each individual to determine if it's getting serious and time to go to the hospital. A light case of Covid, and there's not much doctors can do at this point except say stay home and call or get to a hospital if it gets bad. They can send you some blanket instructions. As far as I know, they're only suggesting testing if they deem it crucial.

I just hope my toes look pretty by sandal season.


Doctors say 'COVID toes' may be symptom of coronavirus, especially in youth

 

[zecats]

Right. I do understand the worry - most people are not on forums like this one or getting any reliable information at all. Getting into the habit of dealing with the outside packaging first, then washing up, seems important unless everyone is fine with something just sitting on their porch or in their front yard, or whatever. Our cardboard stays outside, depending on the item, we may open it fairly quickly (if it's been in transit for more than 3 days, I'm good with that, especially if it's in plastic, which almost everything is).

We let items that are intended to stay in boxes (kleenex, DVD sets, pasta) sit in a warm place for a few hours. It's 100F in our back room today. That means we cannot order boxes of chocolate candy.

Exactly what we do - open cardboard on screened porch, put cardboard outside, bring items into the house, wash hands and utensil used to open boxes.

On a yummy note, I did just order some boxes of Godiva chocolate. Hands down the best for me, and I will eat one piece every day or so. I'd share with you if I could.

 

[Satchie]

The US continues to climb in terms of CoVid cases, although the curve is now linear, not exponential.

We are coming close to 1 million confirmed cases of CoVid in the US, with few models capable of estimating the unknown cases (those range from 500,000 to 4 million, depending on which studies you favor). The exact number reported by state agencies is 894,000 but not all state agencies report in the morning - some report at noon PDT or 5 pm PDT.

Approximately 51,000 people have died in the US (not counting many nursing home victims or all deaths at home). That gives us a 6% case mortality rate (of people who have tested positive, 6% die). That's higher than in other nations, and our average age at death is lower (I can't find the most recent figure, but the CDC should have that soon).

Again, not all nursing home deaths are in the numbers, so the average age is not completely reflecting the reality.

One-third tend to be elderly, most all with pre-existing conditions.

Another third are not elderly, but many or most have pre-existing conditions (BMI over 30 is the main one), and one third are healthy adults, most of whom are either essential employees or are people in places where social distancing is either not required or not being enforced. Some are family members of essential employees or others who are not social distancing.

Coronavirus Dashboard

Per capita, the UK is in much worse shape. With about 1/5th population of the US (we have about 340,000,000 and they have about 67,000,000), their case mortality number is 19,506, almost all of it in England (very few in Scotland, with North Ireland doing fairly well, and Wales looking more like England, but of course, there's no London in Wales).

UK should be at around 10-11,000 if they were following the curve we have in the U.S. There's not a lot published, yet, on why or how UK is set to be on this particular and tragic course. They haven't tallied up all their nursing home deaths or deaths at home, either. So they have 2X the case mortality rate that we do, but their curving is still rising in linear fashion twice as fast as hours.

We are still seeing increases in our cases and our deaths, but the rate is slowing down.

I hope people realize that when we "plateau" that means that the mortality rate will remain the same or slightly less than it is right now. Yesterday we lost just under 1000 Americans. Small changes in reporting numbers affect the data, but that's slightly less than a 2% increase - not too bad. My prediction is that we'll plateau around 800-900 deaths a day for a while (it took Italy about 2-3 weeks to get from their original plateau down to half of their plateau number). They are at 450 deaths per day - which is where we *may* be in a month, except that some states are opening.

We shall see. 800 deaths per day is about 24000 deaths per month in the US. 400 deaths per day for the month after that is 12000 deaths. If we plateau right now, at about 1000 deaths, that's 30,000 in the next month. I think we'll be near 1000 deaths a day for the next week, so 25,000-30,000 deaths from April 25 to May 24 is certainly a grim possibility.

States vary in their ability to handle this extraordinary event. In California, the case mortality rate is 3.8% (and we're counting nursing home deaths, AFAIK, but not all deaths at home), there's another number that's important. We've only had 35,800 people go for testing, almost always because they had many or a few symptoms. In some more rural counties, it's far less than that. So, in those counties, there are "soft openings" of small businesses, beaches (but no congregating or sunbathing or anything like that - just exercising). IOW, we have a very low testing rate in California but many sample tests from various populations that appear to be asymptomatic or with mild symptoms. 1500 Californians have died out of 39,000,000 of us - as compared to 21,283 New Yorkers out of about 20 million. You can see what a stark difference that is.

So, when your friends interpret "on a plateau" or "the curve has flattened" to mean "this is all over now, we're fine, we're good," please let them know what your state or area is facing. California was initially predicted to peak at 126 deaths per day, then IMHE revised that downward to 62, but they were wrong. We have apparently peaked at around 116, so very close to the initial estimate.

But we had only 62 new deaths yesterday and only 332 new cases, which would seem that we are definitely on a downward slope. However, it's clear some counties haven't reported and are on a 2-3 day delay, so when the data are rectified, I'm guessing it'll be closer to 80-90.

Thanks for the comprehensive analysis.

I tend to feel.that the "number of confirmed cases" figures aren't helpful in understanding the big picture. They probably help the public health authorities who are managing that region and who know what the testing strategy is: health care workers, contacts of known cases, vs anxious members of the public. It would be helpful to have the % of tests that are positive IMO.

"1500 Californians have died out of 39,000,000 of us - as compared to 21,283 New Yorkers out of about 20 million. You can see what a stark difference that is."

This is the big question, IMO. Is it related to outdoor air quality, climate, standard of living, age of population, ethnicity, social norms around hugging and kissing, how crowded public or private areas are, tendency for multigenerations to live together, standards of care in nursing homes, etc.