Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #51

[Anance]

Evidence from research, however, shows that this is a false dichotomy. The best way to limit the economic damage will be to save as many lives as possible.”

Yes, the last thing you want is open/close, open/close.

 

[Henry2326]

Gov. Jay Inslee announced today that Colorado Governor Jared Polis and Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak are joining Washington, Oregon and California in the Western States Pact -- a working group of Western state governors with a shared vision for modifying stay at home orders and fighting COVID-19.

"In Washington state, our decisions are guided by public health data and science and this is a principle we share up and down the West Coast. Governor Polis and Governor Sisolak are taking that approach as well, and the addition of their states will strengthen this regional partnership and save lives," Inslee said.

More at link

Inslee announces Colorado & Nevada will join Washington, Oregon & California in Western States Pact | Governor Jay Inslee

 

[tresir2012]

Women's Diaries is an excellent book! I'm putting these on my reading list - just finished a novel last night (finally, instead of reading Coronavirus papers).

The United States seems to be plateauing at around 500 deaths per day (586 yesterday, I believe it was ~560 the day before). However, there are some changes in reporting that make those figures a bit more positive. The Veterans Administration is now reporting deaths in its systems separately, and reported ~400 deaths yesterday - making up the vast majority of US deaths. They had only reported a couple before, so it looks like that number is from a larger period of time than 1 day (it's a 10000% increase, so it looks like it may be for an entire month). Not all of the states have reported for yesterday, yet, so the number may go higher - but the VA figures are really skewing it.

US continues to see increases in the total number of cases per capita, but it's getting close to flat.

Of course, 500 deaths per day is 3500 a week and 14,000 a month. Nevertheless, it is less than projected by the initial IMHE model or any other model that I know. We stand at ~208,000 deaths world wide (reported - it's probably at least twice that) and 55,461 reported deaths in the US. This could have been much worse. There are still over 800,000 active cases in the US and 1.9 million worldwide, so we have a way to go.

With the minor easing up starting a few days ago and becoming more widespread over the weekend, we shall see in 4-6 days whether case numbers jump up a bit more. I sure hope not. If by end of May we have lost "only" 70,000 persons in the US, that is what we're now calling a "good outcome" compared to the initial 200,000. There will almost certainly be a flare-up when the weather turns cold and dry in late Autumn.

I am hoping that by end of May, the daily death rates will be much lower than 500 and that the 14,000 deaths mentioned above. If we could get below 100 deaths a day, that would be great, but it's hard to be that optmistic when we had yet another increase in cases per day and are at almost 18,000 new cases yesterday.

Hopefully, the broadened testing has picked up many of the less symptomatic.

Is it known how many of the US deaths are related to care homes? I don't think I have seen that anywhere.

 

[tresir2012]

China puts pressure on EU to soften report about COVID-19 disinformation, threatening retaliation: report

Wow. From the article-

So far COVID-19, which was first reported in Wuhan, China, has infected 3 million people worldwide and killed 207,431.

But instead of holding Beijing's feet to the fire, the most damning section of the EU report was scrubbed because diplomats were worried that such a public takedown of China would "strain" relations and "make it more difficult to get medical supplies" that are in high demand in hard-hit European countries, the SCMP reported.

"You can always count on the great democracies of Europe to cower in the face of despotism. Last century, they debased themselves before a German tyrant. This century, it's a Chinese one. When will they ever learn?"

— Gordon Chang, foreign affairs expert
The EU report in question is part of a routine update given by the EU's disinformation team, which is embedded in the bloc's diplomatic unit, the European External Action Service.

The decision to water down China's role in the pandemic underscores Beijing's ability to sway foreign governments because of its status as the key exporter of medical products. The pushback from China to kill the comments also underscores how President Xi Jinping and the ruling Community Party know how the rest of the world sees their handling of the pandemic and is desperate to change the image.

The initial report worked hard to sidestep any mention of the virus's origins in China, but said Beijing blamed the United States for spreading the disease internationally. It also noted that China had criticized France for being too slow to respond to the global pandemic and started rumors that French politicians used racial slurs against the World Health Organization -- something that has been proven to be false. The report then took Russia on, criticizing Moscow's effort to peddle lies and sow distrust among western nations.

 

[The Night Watchman]

Is it known how many of the US deaths are related to care homes? I don't think I have seen that anywhere.

It is ~55% in Massachusetts. I think around 50% nationally.

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-22-2020/download

 

[The Night Watchman]

Reports of draft CDC guidelines for phased reopenings

CDC draft outlines phased reopening of child care, religious institutions, food industry amid coronavirus

Meanwhile, the CDC draft proposes guidelines for “vulnerable workers” across all sectors and industries, encouraging workplaces to keep in mind that some workers are at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19.

“These vulnerable workers include individuals over age 65 and those with underlying medical conditions,” the guidelines state. “Such underlying conditions include, but are not limited to, chronic lung disease, moderate to severe asthma, hypertension, severe heart conditions, weakened immunity, severe obesity, diabetes, liver disease, and chronic kidney disease that requires dialysis. Vulnerable workers should be encouraged to self-identify, and employers should avoid making unnecessary medical inquiries.”

So guidelines are to be put in place for vulnerable workers, but the article doesn't say what they are. So it will interesting to see what the CDC recommends. The only answer is that vulnerable workers don't work until the threat level is greatly reduced. Hopefully, these workers will be furloughed and can collect unemployment. This makes sense to save lives and avoid stressing the healthcare system- which in the long run would save money by reducing hospital care IMO.

 

[Tillicum]

DeWine (Ohio) is to share opening guidelines today. Live presser 2pm.

 

[tresir2012]

Another huge 35% of tax revenue comes from Social Insurance (payroll) tax - which supports things like Disability insurance benefits, Medicare benefits, and unemployment benefits.

This tax is paid half by the employee and half by the employer. Fewer jobs = less social insurance tax revenue.
Fewer jobs = more people who need the benefits from that same tax revenue.


View attachment 244629
What are the sources of revenue for the federal government?

How Much Social Security Tax Do I Pay? | The Motley Fool

TY this has clarified it for me. So if 26 million are unemployed what percentage of the workforce would that represent I wonder.

ETA 2020 employment figures were 158 million so that is a large percentage, about one sixth. So those tax revenues could be down quite a bit.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Today's Dr Sehult video... he talks about his patients....

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 61: Blood Clots & Strokes in COVID-19; ACE-2 Receptor; Oxidative Stress

 

[BUF]

Reports of draft CDC guidelines for phased reopenings

CDC draft outlines phased reopening of child care, religious institutions, food industry amid coronavirus

There are many questions that I have after reading these CDC guidelines, but I’ll start with this...”How do you keep a 6’ social distance on a NY subway?”

Maybe they’ll issue those 6’ encroachment watches to everyone...Samsung would make a mint!

 

[tresir2012]

It is ~55% in Massachusetts. I think around 50% nationally.

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-22-2020/download

Ok thanks. Similar to Europe then. If this is replicated across the board then we are looking at possibly 100k deaths in care homes just over the last few months. MOO.

 

[tresir2012]

There are many questions that I have after reading these CDC guidelines, but I’ll start with this...”How do you keep a 6’ social distance on a NY subway?”

Maybe they’ll issue those 6’ encroachment watches to everyone...Samsung would make a mint!

They may do what Spain has done and issue masks for the subway.

 

[anneg]

Is it known how many of the US deaths are related to care homes? I don't think I have seen that anywhere.

We really don't have enough data yet. The ABC news story linked below gives the figure of 10,000 deaths, or around 20 percent of U.S. deaths. But it notes that there are likely many more nursing home deaths.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-crosses-grim-milestone-10000-deaths-us-nursing/story?id=70321822

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Catholic parish life (as we knew it) is not coming no back anytime soon.

Catholic parish life (as we knew it) is not coming back anytime soon.

This is going to be freaky. We Catholics have great difficulty with changes to our services, some more than others. But I think it’s still going to be difficult for all to a certain extent.

 

[KALI]

In the CDC recommendations for restaurant openings, they want people to sit in their cars until their table is ready. Then we are to call them and tell them their table is ready.
I guess that's good, so we can sterilize the table before they sit down.

Reports of draft CDC guidelines for phased reopenings

CDC draft outlines phased reopening of child care, religious institutions, food industry amid coronavirus

 

[KALI]

Of course, but, our business will roll with it. If we have to do that, we have to do that.
Crossing fingers we won't though.

Yes, the last thing you want is open/close, open/close.

 

[shotgun09]

We really don't have enough data yet. The ABC news story linked below gives the figure of 10,000 deaths, or around 20 percent of U.S. deaths. But it notes that there are likely many more nursing home deaths.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-crosses-grim-milestone-10000-deaths-us-nursing/story?id=70321822

Initially, the "most vulnerable" patients were to be protected. All nursing homes shut their doors, to protect these elderly patients from the virus. No family, no visitors, check temp of employees etc. And now, we are purposely sending the infected back, or to a different nursing home, so the virus just re-circulates!! It just doesn't make sense to me at all!

 

[musicaljoke]

They may do what Spain has done and issue masks for the subway.

Did I see a picture in one of the news links today, (Germany?) where you could buy masks from a vending machine in the subways.

 

[Amonet]

I'm only half-way through reading this, but it's nicely written and informative stuff on hunting for new coronaviruses in bat populations in several countries (China, Myanmar, Kenya), getting the virus genomes, and sometimes finding that the virus has already been contracted by some humans, but hasn't yet caused a major pandemic.

Then there's some info on other diseases that exist in wildlife and examples of small and large 'spillover' events into the human population, including some that spread on a small scale to multiple countries across the world before anyone even realised these people were suffering from a 'new' virus that no one had seen before.


The virus hunters who search bat caves to predict the next pandemic - CNN

 

[Trino]

Say this really isn't so... I'm sure we all know about Philadelphia parade and the 1918 flu pandemic. Repeat?
Trump to hold July 4th celebration on National Mall again