Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #52

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  • #141
I wish we had zero dead in every city.
San Diego is the second largest city in California with 1.426 million people.
How did it not spread there?

They were more prepared perhaps because of their experience with this, which I mentioned wrt to hand washing stations, homeless concerns, restaurants...they had quite the practice drill with Hep A in the above referenced WS thread, which I actually started back in 2017. Maybe that experience, education and pro activity helped play a role. I was hoping it would. :)
 
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  • #142
Pope Francis waded into the church-state debate about virus-imposed lockdowns of religious services, calling Tuesday for “prudence and obedience” to government protocols to prevent infections from surging again.

Francis’ appeal came just two days after Italian bishops bitterly complained that the Italian government offered no provisions for Masses to resume in its plan to reopen Italian business, social and sporting life starting May 4.

Pope urges virus lockdown obedience amid church-state debate
 
  • #143
  • #144
This is actually a very intelligent question.
Why, many in the government of the USA thinks that one response, to very different areas is the thing to do. Is crazy IMO.
We are not All NEW York or downtown Los Angeles.
In my area, of 50 thousand people in California, we have 0 deaths.
Zero.
Yet we have the same restrictions as San Francisco or Los Angeles.
Many, many counties in California have zero deaths, or positive cases.
Yet, they are on lockdown, losing their businesses.
It's my opinion.
We are in for a bloodbath in California financially.



This may be a dumb question but I’m going to ask anyway. Some states have “hot zones”, or big cities, but the rest of the state is more rural and populated. But the whole state is going by the same rules for stay at home. Why can’t the reopenings be handled on a County by County basis? Or some type of radius “zone” away from the major cities?
 
  • #145
A 30-year-old federal inmate who gave birth while on a ventilator four weeks ago died from the coronavirus Tuesday, the Bureau of Prisons said.

Andrea Circle Bear was serving a 26-month sentence for maintaining a drug-involved premises, the agency said in a news release.

Circle Bear, of Eagle Butte, South Dakota, appears to be the first female inmate to have died in custody, according to a review of reported coronavirus-related deaths within the federal prison system.

She was first taken to FMC Carswell, a federal prison medical facility in Fort Worth, on March 20 from a local jail in South Dakota. As a new inmate in the federal prison system, she was quarantined as part of the Bureau of Prisons' plan to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

She was evaluated eight days later for her pregnancy. On March 31, she was seen for a fever, a dry cough and other COVID-19 symptoms, according to officials.

Circle Bear, who the agency said had a preexisting medical condition that put her at high risk for the disease, was taken to a local hospital, where she was placed on a ventilator. Her baby was delivered via cesarean section April 1, the agency said. Three days later, Circle Bear tested positive for the virus.

Federal inmate who gave birth while on ventilator dies from coronavirus
 
  • #146
First Coronavirus Antibody Test Without Doctor’s Visit Now Available

A new blood test looks for the presence of an antibody that builds up as a person recovers from COVID-19. Results will come back in a day or two, and will be shared with public health officials to help them track the virus.

Video 1:50
 
  • #147
  • #148
This is actually a very intelligent question.
Why, many in the government of the USA thinks that one response, to very different areas is the thing to do. Is crazy IMO.
We are not All NEW York or downtown Los Angeles.
In my area, of 50 thousand people in California, we have 0 deaths.
Zero.
Yet we have the same restrictions as San Francisco or Los Angeles.
Many, many counties in California have zero deaths, or positive cases.
Yet, they are on lockdown, losing their businesses.
It's my opinion.
We are in for a bloodbath in California financially.

Right? Does anyone think NY would shut down completely for 20,000 deaths in the midwest? I don't. jmo
 
  • #149
SAN DIEGO COUNTY, Calif. — Key facts in San Diego:

There are 3,314 confirmed cases in San Diego County and 118 reported deaths.
View San Diego County cases by zip code or city.
San Diego County is following the California stay at home order.
Most San Diego schools have moved to distance learning and students can still receive meals while schools are closed.
Coronavirus in San Diego and California: Latest updates and new

So, San Diego County has 118 deaths as of today. The breakdown by zip code reveals the hot spots. Chula Vista, more to the south, is said to have a higher number of cases. Fallbrook only has 14 cases, and I guess no deaths. The numbers for unemployment seem premature to me.
San Diego zip codes with high unemployment also have high number of COVID-19 cases
 
  • #150
  • #151
From WHO Briefing / April 17 / source:

BBM:

“Eduardo Talsee: (27:51)
Yes, thanks. Hi, I’m Eduardo Talsee, thanks for your time. Here in Chile a card will be applied for recovery patients from COVID-19. The government says that this patient is stop infecting the rest of the population. We know that it is a measure that is also analyzed in other countries. My question is what is the W-H-O opinion on this measures? Is it recommended and should a PCR test be required to deliver this discharge card? What is the international experience like? Thanks.

Michael J. Ryan: (28:33)
I will start. Maria will follow up on the technical. WHO does not have a position on this approach. I think what we do have is advice for countries to be very prudent at this point. Number one, we need to be sure that what tests would be used to establish the status of an individual and there’s lots of uncertainty around what such a test would be and how effective and how performance that test would need to be.

Secondly, a lot of the preliminary information that’s coming to us right now will suggest a quite a low proportion of the population have actually zero converted. So it may not solve the problem. There’s been an expectation maybe that herd immunity may have been achieved and that the majority of people in society may already have developed antibodies. I think the general evidence is pointing against that and pointing towards a much lower seroprevalence. So it may not solve the problem that governments are trying to solve.

Then thirdly, there are serious ethical issues around the use of such an approach and we need to address it very carefully. We also need to look at the length of protection that antibodies might give. Nobody is sure whether someone with antibodies is fully protected against having the disease or being exposed again.

Plus some of the tests have issues of sensitivity. They may give a false negative result and we may actually have someone who believes they’re zero positive and protected actually in a situation where there may be exposed and in fact they are susceptible to the disease. Now it’s not that these tests cannot be used, but there’s a lot of work to do to standardize those tests to ensure that they’re validated to ensure that they’re used as part of a coherent policy and that there’s a very clear public health objective to their use and that they are not misused in any way.
So we will look at what Chile is doing or proposing to do. We will look at what all countries are proposing to do and we will offer the best advice we can based on science and ethics to them. Maria?

Maria Van Kerkhove: (30:41)
To supplement, this is an ongoing issue and we will be issuing some guidance over the weekend on this because there are a lot of countries that are suggesting to use a rapid diagnostic rapid serologic test to be able to capture what they think will be a measure of immunity. As Mike has said right now we have no evidence that the use of a serologic test can show that an individual is immune or is protected from reinfection.

What the use of these tests will do will measure the level of antibodies and it’s a response that the body has a week or two later after they’ve been infected with this virus. These antibody tests will be able to measure that level of seroprevalence, that level of antibodies. But that does not mean that somebody with antibodies means that they’re immune. And so we will be issuing some guidance around this because it is a confusing area. There’s a lot of tests right now that have flooded the market and that’s a good thing. It’s a good thing that these things are being developed and that they are available. But we need to ensure that they are validated and so that we know what they say that they attempt to measure, they are actually measuring. So we hope to put some guidance out over the weekend and that guidance will be updated as more information becomes available.”

April 17
Press briefings
 
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  • #152
Natural Phenomenon Turns San Diego’s Waves Electric Blue
upload_2020-4-28_23-25-21.png

The VIDEO is relaxing if you're stressed out stuck at home.
Neon Blue Waves in Encinitas Caused by Bioluminescence

I was trying to post this video about less HC being used in some of the hospitals. Patients might get there full Rx refills soon. :)
Some Local Hospitals Scale Back Use of Hydroxychloroquine
 
  • #153
OK, so it's obvious that for a lot of people, a minority I might add, just like in 11/16, 60K Deaths & Counting, in about 2 months, is nothing to be too concerned about. These same people also seem intent on emphasizing that the #'s are much lower than had been suggested as possible, and therefore all the stay at home rules are a bit of overkill....no pun intended.

A logical person would do the math, and come to the intelligent conclusion that were it not for the orders set in place, that 60K figure would undoubtedly be much higher. Someone with a brain would see the exponential calamity this virus inflicts, and calculate that if there had not been uniform stay at home orders in place, we could be looking at 100K or 200K dead already, and rising at an uncontrollable rate. With our hospitals and health care system overwhelmed and overloaded.

We will see in a few weeks whether the states opening now did so too early or not.
 
  • #154
OK, so it's obvious that for a lot of people, a minority I might add, just like in 11/16, 60K Deaths & Counting, in about 2 months, is nothing to be too concerned about. These same people also seem intent on emphasizing that the #'s are much lower than had been suggested as possible, and therefore all the stay at home rules are a bit of overkill....no pun intended.

A logical person would do the math, and come to the intelligent conclusion that were it not for the orders set in place, that 60K figure would undoubtedly be much higher. Someone with a brain would see the exponential calamity this virus inflicts, and calculate that if there had not been uniform stay at home orders in place, we could be looking at 100K or 200K dead already, and rising at an uncontrollable rate. With our hospitals and health care system overwhelmed and overloaded.

We will see in a few weeks whether the states opening now did so too early or not.
It's a judgment call and not an easy call to make.

The problem is, how long can a city stay in lockdown, and not end up with irreparable financial damage? Is there a way to slowly ease back into the economy, without putting the most vulnerable at risk?

Is there a time, when there are enough healthy, young workers, some with antibodies, that can go back out to work and try and help with herd immunity numbers and saving some of the businesses?

Sure, there will be more cases. But how many of them will end in death, if the most vulnerable stay in quarantine?

If there is a segment of the population that wants to go back to work, and they voluntarily agree to do so, then maybe it is a wise decision. The most vulnerable can stay home.

We c cannot stay in lockdown forever. JMO

There are many areas that have had almost no cases so far. But it won't do any good to hide in our homes there because there are already hundreds of thousands of cases in the country. At some point, people will have to face the issue. we cannot 'hide' until eradication because that will take a year or more. It is impossible to stay shut down for that long.
 
  • #155
First Coronavirus Antibody Test Without Doctor’s Visit Now Available

A new blood test looks for the presence of an antibody that builds up as a person recovers from COVID-19. Results will come back in a day or two, and will be shared with public health officials to help them track the virus.

Video 1:50

It seems Dr. Gottlieb agrees with WHO.

See video.
 
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  • #156
The United States, for example, has far more Covid-19 deaths than any other country - as of 20 April, a total of over 40,000 deaths.

But the US has a population of 330 million people.

If you take the five largest countries in Western Europe - the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain - their combined population is roughly 320 million.

And the total number of registered coronavirus deaths from those five countries, as of 20 April, was over 85,000 - more than twice that of the US.

So, individual statistics don't tell the full story.
Can you compare different countries?

THANK YOU for posting that article, tresir

I am tired of reading over and over about how the US has 'the most deaths' and how rotten and horrible we are....:rolleyes:

We have a huge population,335 million, spread over a huge swath of land, and we have total freedom to move around from state to state so of course we have a battle on our hands.

But I think we are doing a pretty good job overall. Our biggest hotspots were explainable. NYC obviously is a big problem with the density and mass transit and all of the international travellers.

And New Orleans, with the very bad luck of the Mardi Gras right at the start of the virus spread.

And the NorthWest had very bad luck with senior retirement homes, which tragically created a lot of deaths.

But most of our states have managed to handle things pretty well and we are united in getting through this together.
USA2.gif
Also, I am not sure yet that the States or Canada knows all the particulars and percentage of care home deaths. If anyone knows that it would be interesting. I am pretty sure PM Trudeau has stated Canada's are more than 50% of their figures so far, so similar to Europe IMO.
 
  • #157
Keep in mind that this study was still retrospective (they knew exactly what they were looking for). When a new virus pops up, that's not true.

The US does have "shotgun" sequencing (although it's a poor choice of words - the sequencing is completely genetic and biological and has nothing to do with a gun - and if they're looking for a metaphor for speed, "rifle" comes to mind).

The "right resolve" will cost billions of dollars. I'm fine with that. Let everyone give up their multiple baseball caps and sodas and many pairs of shoes, right? I don't need 12 lipsticks and 6 foundations.

Unfortunately, no one is using similar tech to study the genome of the afflicted. It's clear that viruses prefer certain people and nutrition/exercise/weight play a role - but so do genes.
I was interested in his theory it all came from that one case on 21 Jan in Seattle who had been to Wuhan. If so then it would seem to me it would be easy to track back to the origin, in the states anyway. MOO.
 
  • #158
Re: Taiwan:

April 17 / source:

“Gabriela Sotomayor: (45:23)
Thank you very much. Thank you for giving me the question. And it’s very nice to see you all. And I have a question. I want to come back to the issue of Taiwan. We hear more criticism on Taiwan being excluded from COVID-19. They have very few cases and they can offer their experience to the world. So I would like to have your comments on this. And well, it’s just that. Thank you.

Maria Van Kerkhove: (45:57)
So, I will start. So just to say, I will repeat what I said the other day. We have been working with colleagues from Taiwan on the technical side throughout this pandemic. And you’re right, it is important that we learn from all countries who are dealing with COVID-19. I’ve personally, myself and Steve, have briefed members from Taiwan CDC, public health professionals and scientists. We had an exchange of information about what is happening at the global level in different regions and also from Taiwan as well.

And we have a number of people who are serving in our clinical networks and our infection prevention and control networks. And again, it’s an opportunity where we regularly meet through teleconferences where there’s the opportunity to exchange information peer-to-peer. And this is invaluable to be able to have firsthand experience with patients to say how are they, how are they developing disease, how can we treat them, how do we prevent onward transmission? And so there has been a regular and open dialogue throughout the pandemic.

Dr. Steven A. Solomon: (47:11)
Thank you. Thank you for the question and thank you Maria. Just to add, as we’ve said before, there’s two parts to this. There’s the participation within the WHO governance process, within for example, the World Health Assembly. And that’s an issue that member States of the organization decide. The WHO staff does not have the mandate to decide those issues. WHO staff works technically and operationally to fulfill the mandate of WHO to coordinate, to convene, to provide advice, to furnish assistance for the response.

That’s the work of WHO staff. The decisions about participation in the governance processes, in the membership, in the health assembly, is a decision that is and belongs to member States. But within the technical work that we do, as Maria has made clear, there are a range of areas that we cooperate, work with, engage with Taiwanese experts, both within the context of this current pandemic and generally. And we listed those, and they’re available on our website.

I think just again to remind of three of the key ones for the response now. There is a point of contact within Taiwan CDC that has access to the international health regulations event information site. This is the key platform for exchanging information among all the parties and stakeholders in the international health regulations. There are two of the key clinical networks that Taiwanese experts participate in. The Clinical Management Network and the Infection Prevention and Control Network. These networks meet at least once a week, sometimes twice a week.

And there is the direct contact between WHO at a technical level, Maria just mentioned these, and Taiwan CDC. These are very important to ensure an exchange. We are looking at other ways to do so as well as this evolve and as the expertise from wherever can contribute to the response efforts. So I hope that answers the question about the technical work that is ongoing and the area that is really in the hands of member States. The formal participation of in WHO governance bodies, like the World Health Assembly.

Michael J. Ryan: (50:09)
Maybe I could just add to this, because I think it is important, the health authorities in Taiwan and Taiwan CDC deserve praise. They’ve mounted a very good public health response in Taiwan. And you can see that in the numbers. And we have praised that. And we’ve seen similar approaches taken in Hong Kong, SAR and across China. And we are observing and we are watching and we are bringing Taiwanese colleagues into the networks, the technical network, so they can share their experience. And they can both contribute their knowledge, but also seek new knowledge from outside. And I do believe that the health experts from Taiwan CDC were involved in one of the initial missions in China with colleagues from Hong Kong, SAR, as a joint mission to Wuhan by the National Health Commission in Beijing. So, that there is-

In Beijing. So that there, as Steve has said, these kinds of scientific collaborations within, without China are extremely important. But you know, Taiwan health authorities, Taiwan, CDC, professionals and health workers in Taiwan have stood on the front line. They’ve served and they have done service to their populations and as many others have around the world. And from our perspective we all stand with our professional scientific and health colleagues everywhere.”



Apr 20/ source

Tarik: (15:34)
[French 00:16:02]. And so quick translation of that. Marie is asking about an email that has been sent by Taiwanese health officials to WHO on 31st December. So the question was when this email arrived, when we had the first announcement by Chinese authorities of cases of a unknown pneumonia, and how do we answer to claims that WHO was not acting on warning from Taiwan? Thank you.

Dr. Michael J. Ryan: (16:43)
On the 31st of December, information on our epidemic intelligence from open source platform partners, ProMED was received, indicating a signal of a cluster of pneumonia cases in China. That was from open sources from Wuhan. On the same day, we had a request from health authorities in Taiwan and the message referred to new sources indicated at least seven atypical pneumonia cases reported in Wuhan media. That the cases were not believed to be SARS, however, that the samples were still under investigation. The message requested with great appreciation if we had relevant information to share, with a thank you in advance for our attention to the matter. There was no reference made in that query to anything other than what had been previously reported in news media and actually referred to a response from the Wuhan health authorities clarifying and confirming that the cases existed, the cluster existed, and obviously it turned out not to be SARS. So any SARS test on at that time would have been negative, as would have been influenza samples. Clusters of atypical pneumonia are not uncommon. There are millions of cases of atypical pneumonia around the world in any given year, and certainly in the middle of an influenza season. Negative influenza tests may also have been found at that time.

So from the perspective of the request we received from Taiwan, it was in line with other information that we had received from other sources, and the message through the iOS platform from ProMED had actually had a lot more detail in it based on the news media report, and that request was actually sent immediately on the same day to our country office for followup with Chinese authorities, and on the 1st of January we formally requested verification of the event under the IHR, which is a formal process beyond any informal verification, which requires a response and requires an interaction from the member state.

Under the IHR, member states are required to respond within 24 to 48 hours of any requests from the WHO for clarification or verification of an event or a signal that we believe may be significant. That process continued, and on the 4th of January WHO tweeted the existence of the event, and on the 5th of January provided a detailed information on our epidemic or emergencies information site, which is a site for all national focal points around the world, and every member state has a focal point for IHR, usually within the National Health Service, and all would have received a detailed report from WHO giving details on the event, and that would have included an IHR contact point for Taiwan. Taiwan has access to that site, as have other focal points and contact points around the world.

On the same day, we would have actually put out our first disease outbreak news, which was a public explanation or a public report on the event, and the process continues after that. So we would obviously like to thank our colleagues in Taiwan for having shared an interesting report for which we were receiving similar reports from other sources. At no point in the process of communication, in this email that’s been received, was there any reference to human to human transmission or any other issue. It was purely requesting relevant information and thanking us in advance for our attention to the matter. So I hope that clears up that confusion.

Dr. Tedros: (21:04)
So I think Mike answered it very well, but I just wanted to summarize. In its email on 31st December, one thing that has to be clear is the first email was not from Taiwan. Many other countries already were asking for clarification. The first report came from Wuhan, from China itself, so Taiwan was only asking for clarification. And as some people were claiming, Taiwan didn’t report any human to human transmission. This has to be clear. They were asking for clarification, like any other entity who wanted clarification. So we didn’t receive the existence of human to human transmission from Taiwan on December 31. We have all the documentations, and the email we received from Taiwan is to get more clarification on the issue based on China’s report. So the report first came from China. That’s number one. In fact, from Wuhan itself. Second, the email from Taiwan, like other entities, was to ask for clarification. Nothing else.

Dr. Michael J. Ryan: (22:47)
And I may also just add that for those of you who don’t know ProMED, ProMED has been existence for more than 20 years, and it’s actually a US based listserv that has provided a lot of early information on epidemics going back over decades. We work with them very closely and we have-

-epidemics going back over decades. We work with them very closely, and we have actually co-developed with ProMED with GPHIN which is a Canadian public health intelligence network. And many others around the world. The epidemic intelligence from Open Sources platform, which is an AI driven system which allows the automatic detection of these kinds of reports all over the world. Our system picks up 7,000 signals. And we pick up those 7,000 signals a month from all around the world.

And they all require verification and followup investigation. Up to 300 of them require investigations specifically by governments. And it’s a massive global process of picking up this information from around the world. And actually all of the G7 countries are now implementing EIOS as part of their core public health architecture and that system would have been live in all G7 countries at the time of these notifications.”
 
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  • #159
US officials were part of the World Health Organization delegation that traveled to China in the early weeks of the Covid-19 outbreak, but they were not part of the group that traveled to Wuhan, a State Department spokesperson said.

According to the spokesperson, “upon arrival, the delegation traveled in groups to several locations, but Americans were not among those who traveled to Wuhan.”
It is unclear why the US officials did not travel to the city at the center of the outbreak. CNN has reached out to the State Department for clarity.

While in Wuhan, the WHO delegation visited the airport, a hospital, and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, including one of their labs.

They did not visit the Wuhan Institute of Virology, according to a WHO visit summary. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in mid-April that “we still have not had Western access to that facility so that we can properly evaluate what really has taken off all across the world and how that began.”

Although the State Department acknowledged that Americans were part of the WHO delegation, Pompeo has repeatedly called out China for denying requests from the Trump administration to allow American scientists on the ground.

“This President and this administration worked diligently to work to get Americans on the ground there in China, to help to the World Health Organization try to get in there as well. We were rebuffed,” Pompeo said on Thursday. “The Chinese Government wouldn’t let it happen, indeed just the opposite of transparency.”

Coronavirus pandemic in the US: Live updates
Maybe the person who came back from Wuhan to Seattle on 21 Jan was not an American either. We don't know do we? That is person zero for the USA anyway.
 
  • #160
South Carolina may have major reporting problems. But it seems to be doing better than Georgia.

First death in California is apparently Feb 6 (I think it will go a bit earlier). South Carolina didn't report any deaths so early. Either it started into the curve later (so wait and see what happens and don't compare it to states where this disease took hold earlier) OR wait and see if they autopsy people who died before they think they got their first death.

AFAIK, South Carolina had its first death on March 16 and its second and third on March 18. So they are six weeks behind California in terms of when CoVid first struck.

There's another statistical aberration in South Carolina. Per known case, 4% are dying - but deaths overall in SC are up. Why would that be?

Further, 192 deaths reported as of this writing (with no data on the per-day death rate which is very useful in epidemiology). If this is true, then there's something about South Carolina that sets it in a completely different group than any neighboring state. People in SC are dying of something other than CoVid while people in neighboring states are dying in higher numbers of CoVid.

Hmmm. I'd like to think that SC just has natural social distancing or maybe everyone stayed at home on unemployment or perhaps no one is visiting SC at this time of year and they surely aren't traveling broadly and bringing anything back.

Or...their testing/reporting system isn't functioning like some other states.

Personally, I think it's that they didn't get cases until mid-March and if that's because they really didn't have any until then, I'd be very surprised. Is SC ordering a sample of autopsies from February 1-March 15? Any pooled samples from hospitals?

From your post.

"There's another statistical aberration in South Carolina. Per known case, 4% are dying - but deaths overall in SC are up. Why would that be? "

My guess is deaths in care homes not yet confirmed as CV19 or they know but are late reporting. A bit like the UK who just announced another 3k deaths yesterday. MOO.
 
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