Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #52

[10ofRods]

Report: Simon Property Group plans to open Indiana malls on Saturday

It was a top story on the noon news today and that got everyone talking. Our Nextdoor started blowing up with everyone cheering and making plans for weekend shopping.

And people are speculating whether barber shops and beauty shops that are located in malls can open Saturday too.

Yay?

I mean - way to establish herd immunity! We'll find out a lot from what happens in the next couple of weeks: specifically whether CoVid is much of a threat to people under 60 (who will, presumably either stay home or realize the risk they're taking to...go to a mall).

Young people want and apparently need to congregate, look at shoes, buy things from food courts. I'd advise older people to go for walks outdoors, shop online and stay home.

 

[girlhasnoname]

Speaking of mobile deposit: I have been ordering my groceries for pickup so I don’t have to go in the store. I also pick up groceries for a senior, high risk couple in my neighborhood. I just add their order to my own and drop them off.

Last week she was fretting because she had several checks to deposit. They hadn’t been leaving the house at all. I told her about mobile deposit, she had never heard of it. When I instructed her how to do it she thought I was a genius! She couldn’t believe how easy and convenient mobile deposit is, and how smart I was to be able to figure it out. Lol, lol. It made her day for sure.

Very cool your helping out!

 

[margarita25]

Out of curiosity, has anyone here been able to find Clorox wipes? I finally gave up but just wondering if others have had luck, and how that supply and availability is doing in other areas.

 

[Henry2326]

The Swedish city of Lund is to spread chicken manure in its central park in an effort to deter crowds gathering for a festival.

Tens of thousands of people usually descend on southern city to celebrate Walpurgis Night, which is marked across Scandinavia.

But officials want to keep people away because of the coronavirus outbreak.

There is no lockdown in Sweden, where data show most people have taken to voluntary social distancing.

"Lund could very well become an epicentre for the spread of the coronavirus on the last night in April," the chairman of the local council's environment committee, Gustav Lundblad, told the Sydsvenskan newspaper.

Defending the decision to spread a ton of chicken manure in the park, he said: "We get the opportunity to fertilise the lawns, and at the same time it will stink and so it may not be so nice to sit and drink beer."

The origins of Walpurgis Night date back to pagan celebrations of spring.

Swedish city to use chicken manure to deter crowds

 

[BUF]

proof I've been cocooned too long - I actually clicked on the pics

Best post of the day!!

 

[The Night Watchman]

@The Night Watchman

I share your concerns about Sweden (and the IMHE modeling). I think IMHE backpedaled using technical jargon saying that "Well, a bell-shaped curve is what our statisticians expect"

WTH? No, that's not how viruses work. Humans do things that fall on bell-shaped curves but viruses (and lightening and rock fall and all kinds of other things) do not. Viruses are going to do what they do.

I do not see how ANYONE can think that a virus would not thrive (and do all kinds of crazy curves) if we (the hosts) don't do something.

IMHE says they got the model together quickly and put in those shaded areas to show "what could happen if the bell curve doesn't work"). Well - it's clear that we, as a planet, could plateau at thousands of deaths per day, or at last close to that.

So, Sweden ended up having slightly more than half its death be people over 75. No biggie right? People gotta die. But expectations regarding lifespan and retirement - and continued expertise of well-trained people from the 20th century - are now disrupted.

Good luck training new nurses and doctors without the 60+ group teaching the higher level classes, including clinical oversight.

But, for Sweden as elsewhere, a bunch of deaths in nursing homes wasn't initially consider "a big deal," it was part of herd immunity. But, as healthcare workers began to die, they rethought that.

Also, in Sweden, it was poorer communities (nearly all of them the immigrants that Sweden controversially permitted into their nation). Poor people dying isn't such a big issue for some people. In fact, I daresay that some people's sentiments or politics run toward "old people are gonna die anyway" and "immigrants aren't that productive and they're annoying."

Better minds are prevailing in Sweden. They see the problem - they can "ride it out" or they can protect the vulnerable. Big surprise - we've seen this thousands of times in human history. Treating each person as a real, living human being - with importance - is hard to do.

Now that I'm officially "elderly," it's weird to suddenly be considered "no big deal." It's weird to see myself excluded from college meetings (if they are occurring in any meaningful sense) because...social distancing and I'm now officially in a vulnerable group. I realize that people want my job. I realize that no one really understands how long it takes to amass information on a topic (well, WSers do).

I guess it's a good thing that H. sapiens is establishing a new, lower limit for its life expectancy, even if it's just a few years. Instead of averaging 79 in the US, we'll average 76. Or 75. Or 70. Or 69. (a return to 1915?)

Doesn't really matter when you're young.

Excellent post as always. The Sweden experiment is something I check in on everyday. Because I don't know if they are wrong or right.

Are all lives equal? Is the man at 85 in end of life care "worth" the same as a child? I don't think there is a need to go there.

I am obsessed with trying to understand the truth, through the misinformation put out there. What ever happened to reporting the facts by the media?

I asked a well educated engineer from work yesterday, and he guessed the average age of a CV death in Massachusetts was 60, and 75% had underlying health issues. He was very worried about COVID-19. And he is 25. He watches the news.

You say the median death age in Sweden is 75, all I can go by is Massachusetts which has finally revealed CV data (can't get national data). The median age of death is 82 (79 is the average life expectancy), and 98% of CV deaths had pre-existing conditions. What do we do with the information? What are the myriad of implications of destroying economies, both nationally and abroad?

What should we do?

1) Do nothing and cull the herd- it nature's course. They are the vulnerable. We all will die anyway. Protect our way of life. Get to herd immunity.

2) Lockdown now and when needed in the future, every life must be saved. Lives matter more than livelihood of the country.

This virus is uniquely targeting those with the weakest immune system. Is this good or bad? It is very good that it does not attack children. Healthy people under 50 have little chance of death from CV. Those within underlying health issues or are over 70 years old are in danger.

3) Is there a third choice- Do we need to quarantine everyone or just those at risk? I don't know and would like epidemiology and economic experts to talk about this. Can we save more lives this way looking at the big picture? Maybe, maybe not.

I’m 57 and in good health, and seriously believe I have a better chance of dying from the seasonal flu than COVID-19, and I don’t get a flu shot. Note- I have learned a lot about infectious diseases and will get a flu shot going forward, it ain’t about me.

You are "elderly". Knowledge come with education and experience, and experience is acquired through the years. Not sure what elderly means but if you are at risk, I very much want you protected, and furloughed with a job to go back to. Can we do that with all at-risk workers and older vulnerable people?

 

[Tadpole12]

That is interesting! Has a map been made, do you know?

Where I used to volunteer, B.C. (Before Covid), I worked largely with international travelers. The worst two cases of flu I ever had was caught in that situation. One bout was so bad I didn't care if I died. My theory is "foreign" virus hit me harder than "at-home" version would. (This is my personal, non-medical theory, based on case study of me alone!)

TSA workers are exposed many people, of course, but people from all over the world who have traveled all over the world, making their exposure greater in both number AND with more variety. Could that be a factor in those cases? IDK.

jmo

When you work at an airport you can catch a variety of flu.

 

[PommyMommy]

Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter
Fauci just read out some of the top line results from the randomized, placebo controlled NIAID study. It is this study people that we were focused on, and it is the news that the drug met the primary endpoint in this trial that triggered the positive reaction this morning. 1/2
12:09 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Mark Knoller on Twitter
Fauci says Gilead reports the anti-viral reduced duration of COVID-19 from 15 to 11 days. "A drug can block this virus," said Fauci about the results of the drug trial. He says the mortality rate also fell from 11% to 8%. He calls the improvement "very important."
12:07 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter
The open label studies are helpful, they add to totality of data and broaden safety database. Conducting them was better than giving drug away with no protocol. It allowed us to collect information. The NIAID study is the key though. This isn' a home run drug, but appears active.
12:12 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter
Some top line data. We'll need to wait for full briefing to understand magnitude of effect observed in NIAID trial. Repurposed or first generation drugs were unlikely to be home run. There's accruing evidence here that Remdesivir is active and could be a benefit in some patients.
12:20 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Meg Tirrell on Twitter
Dr Fauci shared some details from the NIAID remdesivir study just now in the Oval Office, per pool report: Primary endpoint of trial was time to improvement- 11 days on remdesivir vs 15 days on placebo Fauci: “quite good news”
12:08 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Meg Tirrell on Twitter
Fauci also cites mortality rate that trended better in NIAID remdesivir study: 8% vs 11% Fauci: “When you know a drug works, you have to let people in the placebo group know so they can take it.” Compares to when HIV drugs were first found (Per pool report)
12:09 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Meg Tirrell on Twitter
Fauci, per WH pool report, of remdesivir based on NIAID trial results: “This will be the standard of care.” Fauci: Remdesivir has a “clear-cut, positive effect in diminishing time to recover.” Never reported trial results from pool report of WH remarks. Another #COVID19 first!
12:11 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Meg Tirrell on Twitter
Getting video playback now of Fauci. He says p-value for time to recovery benefit (11 days on remdesivir vs 15 days for placebo) is 0.001.
12:45 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Meg Tirrell on Twitter
Fauci says mortality benefit of remdesivir “has not yet reached statistical significance” in NIAID trial.
12:49 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Meg Tirrell on Twitter
Full NIAID statement on remdesivir trial results:

1:10 PM - 29 Apr 2020

 

[otto]

Just catching up - followed the discussion about stimulus cheque in the USA versus cheques based on circumstance and need in Canada. I understand the stimulus cheque, as explained way back, is to stimulate the economy. People should go out and spend. Various funds in Canada are based on need. Spending habits should not change.

 

[10ofRods]

No, you are not alone on this point.
I know I should not be ethnocentric but I find the imagery within the DM articles too disturbing.

You can have morals and still respect the history of a culture's bad ideas. Some of my ancestors were cannibals. I do not endorse cannibalism. And, actually, some of my ancestors hunted and ate animals that I do my best to try and preserve in their natural state.

Morality and ethnocentrism are different. We do a lot of crap in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, that is also immoral - but I think it's fair to say we treat animals a bit better than China. It's a big thing for me. Most nations have abandoned animal testing for things like shampoo or mascara - but not China. They apparently don't care. And so, since they are such a big market, companies like Estée Launder, L'Oreal, Revlon, etc have to test on animals just to tap into that market - a few are moving away from that market, but it's a big market, especially for cosmetics.

And then there's the whole trade in so-called "Chinese remedies" which has frequently included using parts of "wild animals" (animals cornered into remote places of China, held in cages in "wet markets").

 

[cass523]

12-year-old describes how she fought COVID-19

When doctors examined Juliet Daly, they found the virus was causing her heart to fail.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Henry2326]

MY ONLY QUESTION....WHY DIDN'T THIS HAPPEN TWO MONTHS AGO?

The Pentagon announced Wednesday that it “will invest $75.5 million in Defense Production Act Title 3 funding to increase swab production by 20 million per month starting in May.”

“Puritan Medical Products was awarded the contract, which will quickly establish a new manufacturing facility capable of doubling its current monthly output of 20 million to 40 million swabs,” Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Col. Mike Andrews said in a statement.

The Defense Department said that “Puritan is securing a facility in Pittsfield, Maine where it will build its manufacturing facility. Puritan is also adding 150 employees to staff the new factory which will start production in May.”

“More jobs for Maine is a nice bonus,” Navarro added.

Coronavirus pandemic in the US: Live updates

 

[Tippy Lynn]

I'm not sure what the antibody test will do to help the current situation. The test doesn't test for immunity to Covid-19. As of now, we don't have a test that can tell if you are immune. If someone has antibodies we still don't know if it offers protection from the virus and if it does we don't know for how long.

 

[LadyL]

In my opinion, that is sad. Here in New Mexico, we didn't have a lot of cases of COVID. What we did have, hit a plateau last week and we were looking good. Then BAM! we suddenly started getting lots of positives and nursing home deaths. Now, we sure are not looking good anymore.

As far as I am concerned, it is disaster waiting to happen to open businesses. We became lax here in terms of social distancing and are paying the price.

ITA. It's too soon everywhere.

 

[The Night Watchman]

Neck gaiter looks cool.

I totally think that somehow making the face mask concept as cool is important. Instead of dying your hair, piercing your nose, changing your lipstick, show your colors with your neck gaiter or mask. Who's your team? Like America? Want to look like a gargoyle?

Bring it on.

 

[katydid23]

This is going to change the whole industry. Who is going to be happy about putting a loved one in one of these places? However, we will have to compare to the numbers of people of same age brackets dying at home as well. Even for the healthy ones, the lonliness just seems to be unbearable.

My Mom LOVES her retirement community.
Before the pandemic, her life there was fantastic. They have many amenities onsite---.And a daily shuttle bus that has scheduled trips to markets, pharmacies and clinics. She has some good friends there, some she knew before they moved there.

So far none of the 200 residents have tested positive, but I think that is because all of the apartments have their own heat/ac units.

She was never lonely before the pandemic. It was hard to even get her on the phone because she was doing the activities or at the community meals or on the shuttle. But now that she has been locked down in quarantine, with no visitors allowed, she does feel lonely.

 

[LadyL]

Day 45 here in GA....about to be wide open with no flattening of the curve.....I will be inside for much longer until I see something positive happen to these numbers.

well that's interesting and makes sense

 

[PommyMommy]

Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter
This is key: Unless we have a better toolbox in terms of testing, contract tracing, hopefully one or more (even partially effective) drugs, and maybe a vaccine that can be deployed experimentally; we face a lot of risk this Fall from large covid outbreaks.
If US is unprepared for a second wave of coronavirus, Fauci warns country could be in for 'a bad fall and a bad winter' - CNN
12:25 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter
New study on U.K. experience with covid juxtaposed against previously released data on U.S. experience, noting prevalence common co-morbidities in hospitalized patients. Higher U.S. prevalence of co-morbid conditions could explain some outcomes differences Features of 16,749 hospitalised UK patients with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol

2:13 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Carl Quintanilla on Twitter
"We could be on an accelerated timeline," for a vaccine, says @ScottGottliebMD, following encouraging comments this wek from Pfizer, Oxford, J&J, etc -- possibly enough to deploy millions of doses once cleared by trials. "The biggest challenge is going to be manufacturing" @CNBC
7:58 AM - 29 Apr 2020

TODAY on Twitter (Video)
“I don’t think individuals should rely on the results of these tests,” former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb says about antibody testing in the U.S.
8:31 AM - 29 Apr 2020

Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter
This concerted and high level focus on getting a vaccine for #covid is an important milestone in our effort to secure a safer future.
2:27 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter
Comparison across studies however should be made with caution as it’s not necessarily clear in all cases why fewer co-morbid conditions were noted in these series: Was it reporting differences, a function of lower background risk in U.K., or other factors in who was hospitalized
2:45 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter
Good, succinct take by @CarlosdelRio7. Evolutionary, not revolutionary. Remdesivir appears active, may help some patients. A beginning. We’ll need better drugs and ultimately a vaccine. But this could help if used appropriately, especially if we also have antibody drugs by Fall.
3:20 PM - 29 Apr 2020

Carlos del Rio on Twitter
At most a "solid hit" but certainly not a "home run". Not a "game changer" I am afraid but reminds me of the first AZT vs placebo study published in 1987. That was the beginning of the long road to develop a treatment for HIV. The "home run" did not happen until 1996 with PIs
2:36 PM - 29 Apr 2020

 

[LadyL]

Even as the economy opens, I am not sensing a spending spree.

Are people itching to spend?

I think we should pace ourselves for slow economic recovery, not speedy. (And I think we should brace ourselves for Wave 2.)

jmo

hell no not this girl
I'm too worried

 

[Tippy Lynn]

Yes it is. Quite a few of the nurses and providers I work with have been on unpaid furlough since mid-March.

We’re caught in a kind of strange set of circumstances. We work in healthcare during a pandemic, and we are furloughed due to cancellation of all elective visits and procedures.

I work in healthcare as well and I'm in the same situation as you. My scheduled 6 week furlough starts in mid May.