Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #53

[cody22]

These brides got married at a drive-in movie theater after coronavirus canceled their original wedding plans

Buda, Texas Virus Romance News......moo

 

[perfectingpink]

Our state is opening too early and against the advice of the specialists who are actually educated and qualified to make these decisions. I am livid. Our city government won't even comply with recommendations to at least keep playgrounds and self serve drinks closed. I think our government is infected with ID 10 T virus. (I think I needed to vent and thank you for letting me!!)

 

[otto]

Just saw one of the researchers at IHME in an interview on TV, probably CNN. IHME does CV models and is one of the sources that our governments refers to for guidance.

Previous IHME models always showed the U.S. death peak dropping to zero within 4-6 weeks assuming current social distancing. New models have input the new relaxing guidelines state by state, and the outlook is bleak. I just turned it on and I believe it showed a fairly high death rate remain constant for the next few months, instead of going to zero. Pretty sure it was a death total of 200,000, instead of the current 72,000.

The models are not on-line yet, but I will post when they are.

IHME has been pretty accurate and fully transparent, but I doubt we will see a bleak outlook. We now know who to protect much more accurately, and as a result senior living centers have adapted closer to proper and safe policy. Over 50% of CV deaths were in these facilities and I don't see that repeating going forward. I also see the vulnerable people taking much more care in their own protection.

The world is at 3.5 million already. Seems like it wasn't that long ago that I watched it roll over to 2 million. The more relaxed the world is about the virus, the higher the infections and death rates will climb. I suppose we didn't learn anything from the 1918 pandemic - economics is still more important.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,563,715 Cases and 248,146 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

 

[jjenny]

IHME model hasn't been, lets say, very predictive.
"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”"
Influential Covid-19 model shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say - STAT

 

[cody22]

The world is at 3.5 million already. Seems like it wasn't that long ago that I watched it roll over to 2 million. The more relaxed the world is about the virus, the higher the infections and death rates will climb. I suppose we didn't learn anything from the 1918 pandemic - economics is still more important.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,563,715 Cases and 248,146 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Idle Musing - I wonder if all this "stay-at-home quarantine" stuff is gonna lead to a new "bumper crop" of babies in the future ?.....Or an increase in the divorce rate ?.....moo

 

[tmar]

Czech Republic: A newly born Asian elephant tries to stand up at the Prague Zoo.

So many countries, around the world, will also have difficulties, in 'standing up'.
Let's hope, these countries will be successful.

I have added this photo, to give hope, when many of us are struggling.

 

[Yesiamapirate]

Michigan has the nation's highest COVID-19 death rate

I wonder why?? Any ideas anyone???

I live in Wayne County MI, one of the highest outbreak areas outside of Detroit City itself. In my opinion people are not taking this seriously. Case in point, my 60 ish neighbor. She is in a high risk category. People come and go night and day. Adult kids, two sets. Grandkids for tow families. They had a family Easter party. Cookouts, etc. My area is super hard hit in the black community. I just don’t understand if you know this not taking it seriously. MOO.

Edited to add: The neighbor and I live in a nice upper middle class condominium subdivision. By no means is this a “poverty” issue. I am not saying poverty does not play a role in the bigger Michigan picture. Especially Detroit. But my area is not taking this serious. And we are not poor.

 

[Deleted member 39678]

Idle Musing - I wonder if all this "stay-at-home quarantine" stuff is gonna lead to a new "bumper crop" of babies in the future ?.....Or an increase in the divorce rate ?.....moo

What about domestic violence?

Police see rise in domestic violence calls amid coronavirus lockdown

“The financial stress alone creates a ticking time bomb for some families with a history of domestic violence,” said Steve Mueller, sheriff of Cherokee County, South Carolina, which saw a 35 percent increase in cases in March compared to February. “Unfortunately many of these domestic violence cases occur in front of children and often the children become victims of abuse and assault, as well.

Domestic violence calls increase amid coronavirus lockdown, police say

 

[otto]

Idle Musing - I wonder if all this "stay-at-home quarantine" stuff is gonna lead to a new "bumper crop" of babies in the future ?.....Or an increase in the divorce rate ?.....moo

I vote for baby storm followed by "not my baby!"

 

[otto]

Czech Republic: A newly born Asian elephant tries to stand up at the Prague Zoo.

So many countries, around the world, will also have difficulties, in 'standing up'.
Let's hope, these countries will be successful.

I have added this photo, to give hope, when many of us are struggling.

Brilliant! Hard to believe that something so big can be so gentle with something so small.

 

[weepingangel]

I’m going with #2. But I’m a pessimist at heart. (Which Drives my optimist DD bonkers)

Idle Musing - I wonder if all this "stay-at-home quarantine" stuff is gonna lead to a new "bumper crop" of babies in the future ?.....Or an increase in the divorce rate ?.....moo

 

[otto]

I live in Wayne County MI, one of the highest outbreak areas outside of Detroit City itself. In my opinion people are not taking this seriously. Case in point, my 60 ish neighbor. She is in a high risk category. People come and go night and day. Adult kids, two sets. Grandkids for tow families. They had a family Easter party. Cookouts, etc. My area is super hard hit in the black community. I just don’t understand if you know this not taking it seriously. MOO.

It's as though people think they are watching a movie about something that happens somewhere else to other people.

They seem to lack education about the nature of the virus, and the high probability that it will come back stronger in the second wave - possibly with a mutation that activates the dormant, asymptomatic virus from the first wave. The death rate will be fast and higher, and there will be no warning like we had with the first wave.

 

[Yesiamapirate]

It's as though people think they are watching a movie about something that happens somewhere else to other people.

They seem to lack education about the nature of the virus, and the high probability that it will come back stronger in the second wave - possibly with a mutation that activates the dormant, asymptomatic virus from the first wave. The death rate will be fast and higher, and there will be no warning like we had with the first wave.

Or denial. It won’t happen to me, IDK @otto I edited my post to note our particular situation in my neighborhood cannot be attributed to poverty. Elsewhere, yes.

 

[Midgie2]

I live in Wayne County MI, one of the highest outbreak areas outside of Detroit City itself. In my opinion people are not taking this seriously. Case in point, my 60 ish neighbor. She is in a high risk category. People come and go night and day. Adult kids, two sets. Grandkids for tow families. They had a family Easter party. Cookouts, etc. My area is super hard hit in the black community. I just don’t understand if you know this not taking it seriously. MOO.

Edited to add: The neighbor and I live in a nice upper middle class condominium subdivision. By no means is this a “poverty” issue. I am not saying poverty does not play a role in the bigger Michigan picture. Especially Detroit. But my area is not taking this serious. And we are not poor.

Same here. Suburbs outside Chicago. I think people think that it couldn’t happen to them.

 

[cody22]

Michigan's Whitmer says armed protesters displayed 'worst racism and awful parts' of US history

Michigan Virus News......moo

 

[The Night Watchman]

Massachusetts communities with dirty air are coronavirus hotspots - The Boston Globe

That’s because the six communities that have been hardest hit by the virus — Chelsea, Brockton, Everett, Lynn, Randolph, and Lawrence — were all previously designated by the state as “environmental justice" communities. Each has a high percentage of minority, low-income residents, and each has high rates of asthma and other environmentally-related respiratory diseases, in part because of pollution.

Researchers are beginning to see clear correlations between long-term exposure to air pollution and COVID mortality rates — a nationwide study from Harvard researchers this month found that long-term exposure to air pollution increases the risk of dying from the coronavirus.

Nice unbiased work Harvard. These areas were deemed "environmental justice" communities "in part because of pollution". Had to find some random injustice to blame, a concept that literally no one could have guessed. And the bad spots were "environmental justice communities", so let's find a common link (at all costs).

What is an Environmental Justice Community?
In Massachusetts a community is identified as an Environmental Justice community if any of the following are true:

• Block group whose annual median household income is equal to or less than 65 percent of the statewide median ($62,072 in 2010); or
• 25% or more of the residents identify as a race other than white; or
• 25% or more of households have no one over the age of 14 who speaks English only or very well - English Isolation

Environmental Justice Communities in Massachusetts

No mention of air pollution, but let's just say it is air pollution because that is our theory going in and we will shape the result to our objective.

However, most people would have guessed the critical factors for CV mortality in these areas would be-

low income neighborhoods
high population density neighborhoods
above average number in household members
high numbers of active essential workers
poorer average health than normal
heavy dependency of public transportation

And nevermind, that Lawrence MA is a small city in the country, which hasn't been mentioned in the same sentence as air pollution for 30 years.

From the Harvard study- The study looked at 3,080 counties across the country, comparing levels of fine particulate air pollution with coronavirus death counts for each area. Adjusting for population size, hospital beds, number of people tested for COVID-19, weather, and socioeconomic and behavioral variables such as obesity and smoking, the researchers found that a small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in the COVID-19 death rate.

Glad they adjusted for hospital beds and all, but this seems nonsensical. There are over a hundred "environmental justice communities". And there is no possible data adjustment for coronavirus behavior since this is uncharted territory in how people live and react to the risk.

Article on Chelsea-

Chelsea covers only about two square miles, across the Mystic River from Boston. For generations, it has attracted new immigrants, and about 65 percent of its residents are Latino. Many live in three-decker houses, Ambrosino said, where it’s hard for people to isolate themselves. Many work in the hospitality industry and health-related fields, where exposure to the virus is greater. And a lot of them must go to work during the pandemic.

Public health experts already knew Chelsea had the state’s highest rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases and that the actual rate was probably higher. At least 39 residents have died from the virus, and 712 had tested positive as of Tuesday, a rate of about 1,900 cases per 100,000 residents, or almost 2 percent.

Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus - The Boston Globe

 

[Trino]

Worst as I’ve seen it so far last week at work. Tuesday almost Every bed in the Er had a positive or suspected case. From what I’m gathering our voluntary social distancing has been slipping Recently. Vehicle traffic definitely has increased noticeably (Massachusetts)
Eta we supposedly peaked April 20-27? I don’t remember. Feels like we’re still going strong here Plateau maybe ?
Eta again. Our daily city/county numbers are posted by 5/6 pm . I haven’t looked yet today . But weekend numbers don’t seem to accurately reflect anyway.

Minnesota here. We drove 20 mi to my son's house to deliver a battery operated kiddie car and a bicycle that we stored through the winter. Stayed outside for maybe a half-hour. Interesting that I commented on the freeway traffic. Seemed a lot of people were driving. We adhere to the stay at home policy but grandson desperately (of course) needed this.

 

[slowpoke]

What fun! This grandpa airdrop-delivered a box of donuts for his young grandkids via drone. Creative way to maintain social distance yet brighten the day for his family members. Made me smile.

Best EVER Grandpa Delivers Donuts By Drone to Grandkids in Quarantine (WATCH)

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[Spider92]

Ahh Massachusetts hotspots
Massachusetts communities with dirty air are coronavirus hotspots - The Boston Globe



The Massachusetts cities and towns with the highest rates of coronavirus | Boston.com

Massachusetts releases new town-by-town coronavirus infection data

@Chelly
@Spider92

That was a good article on MA hot spots - thank you. That's tough for Chelsea, Brockton, Everett, Lynn, Randolph, and Lawrence — those are poor areas. I thought the link between pollution, asthma and covid was interesting. I don't think of Lawrence as high pollution town but it is very poor and many residents live in small multi generational homes which must put the elderly at increased risk. They're a sad example of this disease being toughest on those that can least afford it.

 

[The Night Watchman]

IHME model hasn't been, lets say, very predictive.
"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”"
Influential Covid-19 model shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say - STAT

Thanks, good article.

Are there any other on-line models that you are aware of? I can't find any of the others so they are hard to get info from.