Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #54

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  • #461
I've heard several Doctors and experts predicting that the outbreak in the UK will become the largest outside the U.S. before too long, and it may take some time before the outbreak there starts to decline.

It's already larger when looked at per capita.

If it gets larger than ours in total deaths or total cases, that's extremely serious and I'm not sure the major models support that.

Coronavirus deaths per million by country | Statista

A few models for the US:

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

I can't think of scenarios that would take UK outside of the proportions of those models. And there's no evidence right now of UK going exponential. It's linear, not exponential, meaning that it's going up a little every day, a prelude to a plateau.

What a lot of people aren't getting, though, is that the plateau is not stable, can go up or down, and can stay the same. We just don't know. IMHE has cases going to zero because of the way its stochastic people approached the problem, but they've admitted that was more about strain on resources - not about epidemiology.

But they're in the ballpark with the other models on the 538 link above.
 
  • #462
Seeing this picture makes me realize how much our lives have changed in a short time. Our local fair is scheduled for middle of August. The directors just posted yesterday that all vendors have been cancelled. They haven't decided yet about whether or not they will have the fair, but I think they are just keeping a watch on things and are having a hard time accepting the obvious. Probably the rest of the fair will be cancelled soon too. These things are hard to do.
Yeah, I’m right there with you on how things have changed looking at these photos. The thing is...it all happened so fast really...hard to wrap your mind around it.
 
  • #463
  • #464
It's already larger when looked at per capita.

If it gets larger than ours in total deaths or total cases, that's extremely serious and I'm not sure the major models support that.

Coronavirus deaths per million by country | Statista

A few models for the US:

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

I can't think of scenarios that would take UK outside of the proportions of those models. And there's no evidence right now of UK going exponential. It's linear, not exponential, meaning that it's going up a little every day, a prelude to a plateau.

What a lot of people aren't getting, though, is that the plateau is not stable, can go up or down, and can stay the same. We just don't know. IMHE has cases going to zero because of the way its stochastic people approached the problem, but they've admitted that was more about strain on resources - not about epidemiology.

But they're in the ballpark with the other models on the 538 link above.
Thanks for the new word, 10ofRods!

sto·chas·tic

/stəˈkastik/
adjective
TECHNICAL

  1. randomly determined; having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analyzed statistically but may not be predicted precisely.
 
  • #465
Probably "largely" sheltering at home isn't good enough, especially if there is community spread of CoV-19. And home, might not even be good enough if you share an entrance, mail room, garbage room, stair well, ventilation system, laundry, garage, etc.
Don’t forget the elevator...standing closely together in a confined space, pushing buttons.
 
  • #466
  • #467
  • #468
So, we are on about 6-7 weeks of lockdown, and people are running out of $$, and you have people like this judge in Texas, getting paid, smacking down a woman trying to earn of living. Yeah, I agree with taking this virus seriously, but there is a point in time, where the citizens are going to take back the country from the leaders telling us all to stay home, while those leaders (governors, Congress, judges) earn a handsome living. It is just a matter of time, before this thing blows up. The reality is everyone can not sit at home forever, while they and everything around them goes broke. The people making all the rules are not necessarily feeling the same impact, and that's a problem.
 
  • #469
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  • #471
  • #472
I think many businesses will fail. It's a domino effect. Entire cities will fail, and even some States.
I do think we're in for a bloodbath financially.
We're old now, we don't have the desire to work 60 plus hours a week anymore.
I'll be content with a part time online job.
That's all we need to supplement our social security IF we leave California.
If you knew what our monthly overhead is you'd probably just about faint.
At least my dear old Dad, who's is Calgary, Canada does, whenever I discuss it with him! :)

I sympathize with you. What is happening to your business is heartbreaking. You said you no longer want to work 60+ hours a week anymore. Perhaps this pandemic is nudging you to make a life-changing decision
 
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  • #473
How this N95 mask could put others at risk for illness

Important information on medical versus non-medical N95 masks.
The mask is safe for the wearer. A lot of states don't have requirements to wear masks at all. And if authorities want us to wear medical N95 masks, where are we supposed to get them? They don't grow on trees, and homemade cotton masks are better than nothing, but they don't block particles like N95s do.
 
  • #474
Update
Children Are Falling Ill With a Baffling Ailment Related to Covid-19

No children are known to have died so far, but several have ended up in intensive care with mysterious symptoms that include enlarged coronary arteries.

Sixty-four children in New York State have been hospitalized with a mysterious illness that doctors do not yet fully understand but that may be linked to Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, officials said on Wednesday.

In an advisory to health care providers, state health officials said that most of the children who were believed to have what has been labeled “pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome” had tested positive for the virus or for antibodies to it.

The new tally from state officials came two days after New York City health officials said that 15 children in the city had been hospitalized with the syndrome and that many of them had been infected with the virus.

One child, 8 years old, arrived at a Long Island hospital near death last week. His brother, a boy scout, had begun performing chest compressions before the ambulance crew reached their home.

In the past two days alone, the hospital, Cohen Children’s Medical Center, has admitted five critically ill patients — ages 4 to 12 — with an unusual sickness that appears to be somehow linked to Covid-19, the disease caused by coronavirus. In total, about 25 similarly ill children have been admitted there in recent weeks with symptoms ranging from reddened tongues to enlarged coronary arteries.

Doctors say this condition does not seem to be driven by the virus attacking the lungs, a hallmark of coronavirus infection in adults.

While some of the children with this condition do end up with respiratory problems and a few have needed to be on ventilators, “it seems to be less a lung-specific disease,” said Dr. Steven Kernie, chief of pediatric critical care medicine at Columbia University and NewYork-Presbyterian Morgan Stanley Children’s Hospital, which has treated between 10 and 20 children with the condition, ranging from infants to older teenagers.

Since the coronavirus pandemic began, most infected children have not developed serious respiratory failure of the kind that has afflicted adults. But in recent weeks, a mysterious new syndrome has cropped up among children on Long Island, in New York City and in other hot spots around the country, in an indication that the risk to children may be greater than anticipated.

No solid data yet exists about how many children in the United States have fallen ill with what doctors are calling “pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome.”

“This is really only a disease that has been clear for two weeks now, so there is so much we’re trying to learn about this,” the chief of pediatric critical care at Cohen Children’s, Dr. James Schneider, said in an interview on Tuesday.

He said many of their symptoms — from rashes to redness of eyes to blood circulation problems — appear to be rooted in an “overall inflammatory response.”

In some patients the syndrome seems similar to a rare childhood illness called Kawasaki disease, which can lead to inflammation of the blood vessels, especially the coronary arteries.

The symptoms of Kawasaki disease often start with a fever and a rash, but when undiagnosed and untreated, the illness can lead to serious heart conditions, such as coronary aneurysms. The disease, which generally afflicts patients 6 months to about 6 years old, is considered rare in the United States.

But Dr. Kernie said it was important to distinguish between this coronavirus-related condition and Kawasaki disease.

On Monday night, the New York City Health Department issued a bulletin, asking doctors to report any cases of the syndrome. The bulletin said the health authorities in the city knew of 15 such cases, involving patients age 2 to 15, who have been in intensive care units since April 17.

Children Are Falling Ill With a Baffling Ailment Related to Covid-19

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/dow...iatric-multi-system-inflammatory-syndrome.pdf
 
  • #475
Basically, masks with valves protect you, and make it easier for you to breathe. They are not going to protect people from you because you still exhale air through the valve. But my state doesn't have a requirement on masks. So lots of people going around without masks at all. And I can't count on these people to protect me. So the only thing I can count on is me protecting myself.
"Valves defeat that second purpose. A valved mask is letting your breath out unfiltered; the valve acts as a little escape hatch for any virus-laden droplets you’re breathing out. Some municipalities that require masks have specified that masks with valves do not count. You also won’t typically see valved masks in healthcare settings for the same reason. As the CDC explains:"
If Your Mask Has a Valve, It's Half Useless
 
  • #476
Tweet from the Tx Lt. Gov:

7 days in jail, no bail and a $7K fine is outrageous. No surprise Texans are responding. I’m covering the $7K fine she had to pay and I volunteer to be placed under House Arrest so she can go to work and feed her kids. #txlege #TexansHelpingTexans

Dan Patrick on Twitter

eta: It was bad enough before I learned she wasn't even given bail!:eek: jmo
 
  • #477
  • #478
Hey! I have covid-hair. I expect everyone else to have covid-hair too.
Hi, Chelly.....LOL!....My "silver mullet" is growing back nicely right now.....LOL !.....moo
 
  • #479
And come on, look at homemade masks, or even surgical masks. They don't seal to the face, there are gaps on the sides, there are gap at the bridge of the nose. Air is going to escape and get in. So how much are they really helping? Either you or those around you? Certainly not a 100 %.
Very true.
 
  • #480
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