Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #56

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  • #321
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  • #323
To claim that most/many people in Sweden who are over 80+ and 90+ are dead from the corona virus is not true, yes, many have died but it haven't in any way wiped out the elder elders.
Out of 436,679 between 80 an 89 years of age 1,354 have died, making it 0,0031 percent.
Of those who are 90+, 812 out of 99,627 have died, making it 0,0081 percent.
The numbers of people are from the Swedish statistics agency for 2019, Sveriges befolkningspyramid
So yes, those who are the oldest have been hardest hit, but don't paint the numbers blacker than they are. To imply that most of those who are over 90 in Sweden are dead, for that to be true, the number of Covid-19 deaths in Sweden would have to be close to a third of the total number of the deaths in the entire world today (291,809) for just those over 90 years of age to be dead.

I never said all elders died. I just said that once the very vulnerable are dead, they don't die again. My point is that two things are going on: vulnerable elders are dying AND people are modifying their behavior such that it is hard for me to believe that Sweden isn't doing some social distancing (voluntarily).

As the number of dead over 90 goes up (and it will, those deaths will likely be a continuing issue - perhaps for the next two years), the overall number of deaths then goes down, whether or not social distancing occurs.

I did not mean to imply that everyone over 90 was dead, only that as the exposed and vulnerable 90 year olds die (same for 80-somethings), a lot of other elderly people will self-isolated OR have a milder course - in any case, the numbers will come down as that happens.

When I do those calculations, I get .3 not .003 (the first place past the decimal is 10%, the second place is 1%, the third place is X out of 1000.

That's in keeping with findings elsewhere. If Sweden truly had only 3 people in 100,000 dying in an elder it wouldn't be so high in terms as shown here:

Coronavirus deaths per million by country | Statista

Take a look at your figures. 10% of 99,000 is 0.1*99,000 or 9,900. 1% of 99,000 is 990. 1% of 99,000 is 0.01*99,000.

The number of deaths you quoted is 812, which is closer to 1% than to 0.0081 percent. It's 0,81% (0.81% for us Americans).

Again, 1 percent of 99,600 is 996 - so 812 is getting close to 1%. 0.008 of the population is not .008%, it's almost 1 percent. 0.0081 percent would be .000081*99,000.

Anyway, didn't mean to imply any more doom and gloom than usual, but to me, as numbers approach 1 in 100 people (1%) dying of something, I feel myself quite alarmed. That's indeed a doom and gloom scenario.

https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/Covid/SWE-ExtendedResults.pdf

Right now - and please correct me if I'm wrong - many people in Sweden are staying out of crowded, optional spaces, and rural/semi-rural residents are not heading into Stockholm at the same rates as usual (Source: Google analytics). By July, things will have really simmered down and the antibody testing can begin - but people will also go back to their usual activities. Italy is ahead of Sweden, calendar-wise, so keeping an eye on Northern Italy is worth a look:

https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/Covid/LOM-ExtendedResults.pdf
 
  • #324
“Give me liberty and give me COVID-19” is a dangerous strategy that won’t get you out of jail, according to officials in California.

The L.A. County Sheriff’s Department says more than a dozen inmates were part of a “dangerous plot” to share the novel coronavirus at a California correctional facility, in hopes of contracting COVID-19 and being granted an early release.

The plot was based on a “gross misunderstanding” that inmates would be released if they tested positive for the disease, the sheriff’s department said in a statement.

More at link explaining door of opportunity for inmates. Not!
Wow. These sure are crazy times. Who woulda thought? We should have.

The LA County Sheriff’s Department released this YouTube video.
L.A. inmates ‘deliberately’ infected themselves with COVID-19, sheriff says
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  • #325
The issue with Los Angeles county will be the perception that the everyone will have to be treated the same. And you can hardly put a barb wire fence around LA county. Everyone in California drives an hour or so for lunch, or to see friends.

The problem will be optics if folks in Orange county can go to work and out to eat, when the folks in Los Angeles county can't.
 
  • #326
Here's my weekly update of the CDC's provisional data (ie data based off actual death certificates) to compare it to what the CDC shows on its main death count page (which includes "unconfirmed" cases and deaths where the decedent tested positive but there's not necessarily a link between the death and the virus). Note that the total provisional death count is still under 50k and the proportion of covid deaths to other deaths and pneumonia deaths remains roughly the same with 49,867 covid deaths v. 74,756 pneumonia deaths.

37,308 total covid deaths from 2/1 to 4/25, compared to 38,576 as of 5/2, compared to 49,867 as of 5/9 (the total deaths reported on the CDC's main death toll page is 80,820!) Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

719,438 total deaths from any cause from 2/1 to 4/25, compared to 739,600 as of 5/2, compared to 808,851 as of 5/9

97% of expected deaths from all causes from 2/1 to 4/25, compared to 93% as of 5/2 , compared to 95% as of 5/9

64,382 pnuemonia deaths from 2/1 to 4/25, compared to 66,094 as of 5/2, compared to 74,756 as of 5/9

16,564 covid plus pnuemonia deaths from 2/1 to 4/25, compared to 17,122 as of 5/2, compared to 21,974 as of 5/9

5,846 flu deaths from 2/1 to 4/25, compared to 5,886 as of 5/2, compared to 6,046 as of 5/9 (I continue to wonder what the rate was last year during these periods)

The 5/2 chart left off the flu, covid or pnuemonia total. Don't know why, but it's back now. It was 90,165 deaths with flu, covid or pnuemonia from 2/1 to 4/25 , compared to 107,825

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19):
 
  • #327
The issue with Los Angeles county will be the perception that the everyone will have to be treated the same. And you can hardly put a barb wire fence around LA county. Everyone in California drives an hour or so for lunch, or to see friends.

The problem will be optics if folks in Orange county can go to work and out to eat, when the folks in Los Angeles county can't.

Exactly. I live just outside LA County on its northern end. Now they'll come up here to do whatever.

And Orange County is like a magnet for Los Angelenos.
 
  • #328
To claim that most/many people in Sweden who are over 80+ and 90+ are dead from the corona virus is not true, yes, many have died but it haven't in any way wiped out the older elders.
Out of 436,679 between 80 an 89 years of age 1,354 have died, making it 0,0031 percent.
Of those who are 90+, 812 out of 99,627 have died, making it 0,0081 percent.
The numbers of people are from the Swedish statistics agency for 2019, Sveriges befolkningspyramid
So yes, those who are the oldest have been hardest hit, but don't paint the numbers blacker than they are. To imply that most of those who are over 90 in Sweden are dead, for that to be true, the number of Covid-19 deaths in Sweden would have to be close to a third of the total number of the deaths in the entire world today (291,809) for just those over 90 years of age to be dead.

P.S. The social distancing and that people have been more strict in follow basic hygiene routines have made that the number of cases (and deaths) of the flu, as well as the RS-virus among children, dropped earlier than other years, a fact that was mentioned in the daily report about the Covid-19 today.
Hope you are putting the virus behind you @FrostOwl and feeling better
 
  • #329

That's that crazy Fresno case. In some counties, the Sheriff is saying no enforcement of mandated closings. Fresno isn't one of them.

For those of you who might one day consider a trip to Yosemite, Fresno is a gateway city for the National Park. Its economy depends somewhat on tourism (but also agriculture, transportation, education). Still, at this time of year, restaurant owners in Fresno start really turning a profit and that will last until October or so. I get the man's frustration, but so many of the people (including the owner) have a pre-existing condition that afflicts about 50% of those who end up in the ICU...
 
  • #330
  • #331
Rapport and also confidence are going to be essential skills - and also an acute understanding of the neighborhood. Not all communities are alike or will respond the same, and I'm assuming that will be covered with training.

I'm very skeptical that Americans are going to participate in tracing or appreciate anyone knocking on their door to ask questions. I don't have high hopes tracing will work, sorry to say.

jmo
From reading the job description that was posted, it appears that most is work with computer apps/management software and the phone. People are not going to be knocking on doors where the virus may be lurking on the other side!! People who have been in telemarketing/sales roles would be very good. Empathy is very important, but staying on the phone for 1.5 hours is not a good metric!! Here is where the federal government really could play a big big role in Public Service Announcements to prepare the general public on how the calling works and the positive reasons for it. I don't think they have done a really good job in regards to the Census, but something like that would go a long way with getting the public comfortable.
 
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  • #333
From reading the job description that was posted, it appears that most is work with computer apps/management software and the phone. People are not going to be knocking on doors where the virus may be lurking on the other side!!
Snipped

Good point! I did picture people actually showing up at a home, but that doesn't make social-distance sense! New Normal takes some getting used to.

jmo
 
  • #334
Just signed up for a coronavirus antibody test. Tomorrow at 11:45AM. $130. Couple of days turnaround, I think.

Why? I think I had coronavirus, and would put the odds at 75%. This would likely mean my wife and daughters had it as well since we have been together for 2 months.

My symptoms-

Late February, early March: I felt off for about two and half weeks, experiencing usual fatigue. I got winded and a little weak going up two sets of stairs where I never did before. I felt like I was running at 50-75% energy. The first week I was at my desk and felt a strong fatigue come on and also felt slightly feverish. I took my temperature the next day but it was normal. From then, I just had the fatigue and my light cough persisted, tapering back to normal in a couple of weeks. Now none of this is particularly pointing to CV, but I suspect the virus since these were symptoms I never had before- I recall thinking that at the time. It wasn't until a month ago that I tied this episode to possibly being coronavirus.

My boss/colleague at work also had a month long cough, weakness etc before my episode. He joked about probably infecting everyone (10) at work with a cold, but this was before coronavirus was thought to be a possibility in Massachusetts.

So hoping for a great outcome- a positive reading. I repost with my results when I receive them.

Questdirect

I am so eager to hear the results. So is the process to request easy enough? Who are you going through? My daughter and her boyfriend live in NYC, and she had very similar symptoms as you--extreme fatigue, headaches, and winded when never before. He had a cough, but she did not. I am trying to get her to get antibodies, but she thinks she cannot. So any further wisdom on how to make this happen is very appreciated.
 
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Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, the Internet has been teeming with provocative conspiracy theories that the novel coronavirus was (1) created in a Wuhan, China, lab and deployed as a bioweapon or (2) derived from bats, grown on tissue culture, intentionally or accidentally transmitted to a researcher, and released into the community.

Politicians have touted these theories in an attempt to blame China for the pandemic, and a discredited US scientist recently released a book and now-banned video claiming that wealthy people deliberately spread COVID-19 to boost vaccination rates. And late last week, an unsubstantiated NBC News report on cell phone location data suggested that the Wuhan lab temporarily shut down after a "hazardous event" in October.

Even Kristian Andersen, PhD, a professor in the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California, and lead author of a research letter published Mar 17 in Nature Medicine on the origins of the virus, first thought that COVID-19 was just as likely to have been accidentally released from a lab as it was to have come from nature.

But that was before he learned more about COVID-19 and related coronaviruses, which have features already seen in nature. "There are lots of data and lots of evidence, as well as previous examples of this coming from nature," he said. "We have exactly zero evidence or data of this having any connection to a lab."

And while Andersen, like other prominent virologists, says that he can't completely rule out the possibility that the virus came from a lab, the odds of that happening are very small. He says the new coronavirus clearly originated in nature, "no question about it by now." (Conspiracy theories discussed at link)
Conspiracy theory #1: Chinese bioweapon
Conspiracy theory #2: Lab release of natural virus

Perlman said scientists may never be able to track down the origins of the virus or its intermediary host. "I think it's really an important issue, figuring out where the virus comes from, but it's just a hard business finding it," he said.

It's human nature, he said, to want to blame someone for a natural but catastrophic event like the pandemic. "Something bad happens, and someone has to be responsible for it," he said.

Even so, Perlman decried the use of unproven origin theories to push agendas. "I think it's been used way too much as a political issue," he said. "This politicization of this is very unfortunate."

But Andersen said he thinks theories do deserve exploration, even if to ultimately refute them. "It's important that we don't dismiss them out of hand," he said. "We need to look at the data and say 'what does the data tell us?' And the data in this case are very strong."
Scientists: 'Exactly zero' evidence COVID-19 came from a lab



 
  • #337
Waffle House is only east of the Mississippi. Sadly, no Waffle Houses in CA.
We do have Waffle Houses here in Texas.....:)...........moo
 
  • #338
Waffle House is only east of the Mississippi. Sadly, no Waffle Houses in CA.
My mistake (I'm east of the Mississippi). It's California Waffle Shop.

Hope that correction makes a difference.

jmo
 
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Fresno City Councilmember Garry Bredefeld called it “completely unnecessary” and a “direct result of the tyrannical policies” being enforced as part of the lockdown, ABC said.

I'd like to tell Bredefeld what's unnecessary - waffles!
go home people geez

Business and money are necessary. I'm sure a good portion of the people there, if not all of them, were there to support local business, not just to eat waffles. jmo
 
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