Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #56

[ilovewings]

I wonder if this "virus" has designed itself to seek out the weak spots in us all to attack. Some of my friends say it is morphing to kill of children and otherwise healthy adults. I'm not sure, but it certainly is interesting when a "virus" is smarter than the scientists.

it is statistically verclear

I wonder if this "virus" has designed itself to seek out the weak spots in us all to attack. Some of my friends say it is morphing to kill of children and otherwise healthy adults. I'm not sure, but it certainly is interesting when a "virus" is smarter than the scientists.

There is so much we don't know about this virus. I remember a few weeks ago when the experts said children don't get the virus (or can't spread it)-- Now we know it can affect children in a very bad way. However, I don't foresee the virus will morph into killing otherwise healthy adults. It is clear this virus has a proclivity for those aged over 65 (especially people 70 and older) who have underlying health conditions, which most elderly people have - the death rate is very high in that age group. younger people do get the virus but most of them recover- though it does kill some younger people.

 

[10ofRods]

Work from home will work for only a limited number of people. What about schools? Are all children to be home schooled from now on? JMO

I think the plan here in California is evolving toward 1/3rd class size with staggered enrollment, with expansion of after school care primarily in outdoor spaces. Parents will have to decide whether they want their kids to be in that care. I think most parents are saying they don't want that and are revising work schedules where ever possible to be able to have their kids home more than usual.

Since so many people are going to remain unemployed, many will be stay at home parents. The unemployment itself is a huge deal. Schools plan to offer the core classes (English, math, science, history) but classes such as PE, music, art, and social time such as holiday celebrations, craft projects, etc, will be curtailed. The parents will be supported in developing those areas at home. Naturally, some people are going to be totally out of the loop.

From K-2, the primary goals in the classroom are social. So some schools are planning for more hours for that age group (more than a third of a day). Portable classrooms may be used. Some high schools are discussing plexiglass for teachers, in the richer districts.

In the end, I think we'll go to ⅓ class size first, then scale up to ½ class size for an indefinite period. This could be educationally valuable, it will be interesting to see how the kids do academically with more intense, smaller classes.

 

[mickey2942]

I think that the biggest change in education, will be services to children with disabilities. Right now, the Department of Education has suspended services under an IEP.

How this is going to look when school services are provided, is going to have to be addressed by the Federal government. Because Special Education teachers and service providers can't be treated differently than regular education teachers. That would be a union contract issue.

 

[tresir2012]

Coronavirus: Welsh First Minister urges English not to travel to Wales this weekend

People from England wanting to travel to beauty spots in Wales this weekend will "find they are on the wrong side of the law", the first minister has warned.

Mark Drakeford said "now is not the right moment" for people from outside of Wales to cross the border, as he unveiled the country's new traffic light system to help ease the coronavirus lockdown.

He told Sky News: "My message to people in England is please visit Wales later.

"We are very keen to welcome people and always have been, but now is not the right moment.

"In Wales the law is that you can only travel locally. So people travelling long distances to come into Wales will find they are on the wrong side of the law."

He told a press conference in Cardiff that police officers along the border in North and West Wales have been forced to "educate and persuade" English motorists to go home every weekend since the start of the COVID-19 crisis.

This is a real big problem because many have family members across the border. English rules say we can meet, Welsh rules say we can't. Absolutely pathetic and ridiculous. Someone needs to get arrested doing it and challenge the law because English and Welsh law is the same. A lot of people are not happy about this. Not only that but Wales R number is better than England yet no lockdown change yet. Lots are ignoring it and have gone back to work in Wales by the look of the traffic on the streets and people out and about. I saw a guy sitting reading a book out in the sun by the river. Not allowed under Welsh lockdown. It is really getting stupid now IMO.

Also, holidaymakers are ringing up to book caravans on Welsh caravan parks and they can't take the bookings. Weather looks good for the weekend so will let you know what happens.

Oh and it doesn't look like it will matter if family on the Welsh side cross to England to visit with family as that appears Ok. Plod is going to have a lot to think about this weekend, so I hope there is no real crime. MOO.

 

[tresir2012]

From my view, in my state of Arizona, far too little education, direction, and guidance has been given about why masks and social distancing are important
That it has nothing to do with how sick or not you feel, or where you are or are not, that it's to protect not only yourself, but other people
That wearing masks is a show of care and concern about other people

And now to me, it's worse
Briefings from the government are full of all the places you can go and all the things you can do now
And barely a mention of the need for continued respiratory etiquette

Caveat:
I'm probably biased because I'm old

Maybe just 70+ should think about masks. I certainly don't believe it should be mandatory, but maybe advisory perhaps on public transport.

 

[margarita25]

Russia:

Russia's Coronavirus Cases Surge By 10K as Total Surpasses 260K - The Moscow Times

“Russia confirmed 10,598 new coronavirus infections Friday, bringing the country’s official number of cases to 262,843.

Russia is now the second most-affected country in terms of infections and has the world's second-fastest rate of new infections behind the United States.”

[...]

“Russia says its high number of cases is due in part to a massive testing campaign that has seen more than 6 million tests carried out.

Moscow accounts for roughly half of all infections and the city said it would be launching mass voluntary tests for antibodies from Friday.”

—-

As Coronavirus Overruns Russia, Doctors Are Dying on the Front Lines
Facing dire shortages of protective gear and amid fears that the worst is yet to come, more than 180 medical workers are reported to have fallen victim so far and thousands have been infected.

“Russia’s health minister, Mikhail Murashko, said on Wednesday that 400 Russian hospitals had suffered outbreaks of the coronavirus.”

—-

How Russia's Coronavirus Outbreak Became One of the World's Worst

“Russian President Vladimir Putin eased the nationwide lockdown imposed on March 30 to stem the spread of the coronavirus, even as Russia becomes Europe’s new hotspot for the infection. With more than 250,000 cases as of May 15, Russia now has the second-highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world.”

—-

“In a statement Wednesday, the Moscow health department said authorities conducted autopsies on 100% of suspected coronavirus victims and confirmed that 639 people died directly of coronavirus complications in April.”

Why Moscow didn't count 60% of suspected Covid-19 deaths - CNN

 

[tresir2012]

These are really good points and helpful to me in sorting out my own views on reopening. The comparison to flu is especially cogent.

Basically, even as a person at risk, I am ready for more opening up. But, the way I'm thinking about it, I do have ways of protecting myself, including new behaviors that people are just going to have to chalk up to me being eccentric. I really don't want to get CoVid. At least not now, not until some of the newer treatments are available, which I reckon will be next year some time - so that's how long I intend to self-quarantine, with a couple of modifications to permit me to see my younger daughter/granddaughter. Even if we can't hug.

The thing is, here in SoCal, we're starting to see the usual unemployment related crime go down, on steroids this time. Home invasions are up, here in my neighborhood people are reporting on Nextdoor that there are at least two men wandering around impersonating SoCalGas meter readers (SoCalGas doesn't have meter readers in our area). These men are approaching women alone in their yards, gardening, or moms in the yard with kids. One neighbor found one of these guys in his backyard, and the guy then pretended to be a meter reader (they have SoCalGas shirts - but not the type currently worn by meter repair persons). In addition, there are some random door-to-door "salesmen" (not legal here), who are clearly not from our area and are simply casing and peering into people's homes. It's an older neighborhood, about half of us are over 60.

This is only going to get worse.

Thank you, @The Night Watchman for continuing this productive dialogue. I am actually looking forward to the next phase of this terrible pandemic. People who are going out in droves choose that for themselves. In California, it's disproportionately San Diego, Imperial and Orange Counties - all adjacent to each other, who are driving our case/mortality rate up, with Los Angeles County continuing to be a hard place to control the contagion. We still don't have a high mortality rate compared to the rest of the US. Restaurants still haven't opened in San Diego (I haven't seen @KALI recently, but my heart goes out to her), and the requirements for reopening are indeed pretty specific. It's a tense situation. I don't want any more people to lose jobs or go out of business.

I want a new normal where we can protect ourselves but not at the expense of the collapse of entire industries or communities. There's gotta be a way.

You need to immediately report these weirdos to the police and your neighbourhood watch and post it on Facebook. (Sounds like it is on Nextdoor but that is not public enough. Take pictures of them and their vehicles, put it on a public Twitter ) Your local police probably has a Twitter page too. They are obviously criminals casing the properties and the occupants.

 

[10ofRods]

But have they determined it was from Coronavirus? Did he have an underlying health condition?

Whether he did or didn't, isn't the point. There are millions of children with "underlying health conditions" as yet undiagnosed - because they are children. I am quite certain this child would not have died recently without the CoVid.

At any rate, kids have underlying conditions that are not yet diagnosed and they would be the ones at risk, if it's ever shown that it's mostly kids with underlying conditions.

I don't think we can test every single child for every known illness. We cannot know before the child is ill or dies that they were the one who was going to get the Kawasaki style syndrome. Genetic studies of the suffering children will surely be done when doctors turn to longer term research projects, but in the midst of this pandemic, we're getting epidemiological information that alerts doctors for early signs (and the underlying conditions that do exist don't show any sort of underlying pattern so far).

But to answer your question, in the data available, most of the children with the Kawasaki-style symptoms did not exhibit any known condition, which is why the doctors are reporting and writing about it - in 20 nations now. Since it's rare, the data are in no way conclusive. The 9 newborns who died in China exhibited entirely different symptoms, AFAIK. There also seem to be some outlying cases that are not Kawasaki-style but almost entire involve what are essential heart attacks in children (again, it's the epithelial cell attack that CV makes that seems to be the mechanisms

Usually, the term "underlying health condition" means one that is medically diagnosed before an event, not something that is noticed only after death (which can include "pre-existing" conditions). At any rate, the vast majority of children who are at risk due to strange genes or undiagnosed medical conditions cannot be reasonably found and identified.

Fortunately, as @A Night Watchman pointed out, it's very few children. But the situation is concerning, since these kids are getting this syndrome a month or more after CV diagnosis (or without knowing that they'd had asymptomatic CV). Will it be the only syndrome of its type? Is it related to CV's attack on epithelial cells? (It would seem so). Will adults also be experiencing future attacks on their veins and arteries?

We don't know. And until we know, many parents are going to be very concerned. We know that many places shut their schools early, so CoVid has not yet had a chance to run rampant through a child-population.

Since the few cases of underlying conditions don't form a pattern, parents can't know in advance if their child is vulnerable. The mental stress of this kind of concern can be overwhelming and I think future mental health issues can be sure to follow in the wake of this pandemic.

 

[Recidivist]

I think that the biggest change in education, will be services to children with disabilities. Right now, the Department of Education has suspended services under an IEP.

How this is going to look when school services are provided, is going to have to be addressed by the Federal government. Because Special Education teachers and service providers can't be treated differently than regular education teachers. That would be a union contract issue.

My grandson is a special ed student. The school district has provided us some support, not a lot. Starting this week someone has called in the afternoon to help him with his online homework for an hour, but yesterday she told us that she has been cut back to 30 minutes a day instead. He has received a few speech therapy lessons. The thing that is really lacking is in the area of social skills, but I realize it is impossible to continue with that at this time. His therapist records little messages for him and has him draw pictures about how he is feeling. For some reason the Anaheim district does not allow any video or face chat or even sending pictures. This week they had me pick up a jar of larvae so we can watch them turn into butterflies and set them free. I keep thinking I will forget about them and they will die in their little jar. Usually I am a fierce advocate for him with respect to his IEP, but I think the teachers, aids, therapists, etc have done their best with what they have to work with. I have come to realize that it is really hard to teach special needs kids and requires a ton of patience, which I am working on.

 

[10ofRods]

Dr. Fauci explains it a bit.

" “We urgently need a safe and effective treatment for COVID-19. Repurposing existing drugs is an attractive option because these medications have undergone extensive testing, allowing them to move quickly into clinical trials and accelerating their potential approval for COVID-19 treatment,” said NIAID Director Anthony S. FaucI in a statement.


“Although there is anecdotal evidence that hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin may benefit people with COVID-19, we need solid data from a large randomized, controlled clinical trial to determine whether this experimental treatment is safe and can improve clinical outcomes," the infectious disease expert explained. "

From Worldometers, there are presently over a million cases in the US, (25% of the world's cases). 16k of the US cases are serious.

Active cases 1,052,654
Serious or critical 16,240

Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,541,148 Cases and 303,636 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

That's fairly good news for the U.S. As our testing rates go up, the percentage of serious cases is going down, as expected. Early on, only very serious cases were tested, now, there's much broader testing.

So only a small percentage of cases are currently critical (to get an actual percentage, we'd need all past serious cases to be included in that second figure- as over 80,000 people are already dead and many others were in ICU's and are now recovered).

If the Slovenian figures are at all applicable (US probably has more cases), about 9 million Americans should be testing positive either for active CoVid or for antibodies. If true (I think it's probably about right), then the per case fatality rate will continue to drop as testing improves.

 

[firebird]

From my view, in my state of Arizona, far too little education, direction, and guidance has been given about why masks and social distancing are important
That it has nothing to do with how sick or not you feel, or where you are or are not, that it's to protect not only yourself, but other people
That wearing masks is a show of care and concern about other people

And now to me, it's worse
Briefings from the government are full of all the places you can go and all the things you can do now
And barely a mention of the need for continued respiratory etiquette

Caveat:
I'm probably biased because I'm old

According to the CDC, there have been approximately 401 provisional covid deaths (i.e., confirmed by death certificate) out of 7.27 MILLION people. There is absolutely nothing for the vast, vast, vast majority of Arizonans to worry about. So opening things up and encouraging people to get back to business as usual is the only responsible thing to do. Imo, shutting AZ down in the first place was a huge "mistake." jmo

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

 

[CSIDreamer]

Georgia

CORONAVIRUS IN GEORGIA: More than 750 new cases confirmed in 24 hours

“As of Friday at 9 a.m., there were 36,544 confirmed cases. That's an increase of 751 new cases from Thursday morning.”

Are they increasing their testing?

 

[tresir2012]

On Tuesday, San Diego county Supervisor Jim Desmond said after digging into the data that he believes only six of the county’s 194 coronavirus-identified deaths are “pure” coronavirus deaths, meaning they died from the virus, not merely with the virus.

Desmond was seemingly ruling out deaths from individuals with preexisting conditions.


“We’ve unfortunately had six pure, solely coronavirus deaths — six out of 3.3 million people,” Desmond said on a podcast, Armstrong & Getty Extra Large Interviews, according to San Diego Tribune. “I mean, what number are we trying to get to with those odds. I mean, it’s incredible. We want to be safe, and we can do it, but unfortunately, it’s more about control than getting the economy going again and keeping people safe.”

Supervisor Jim Desmond says San Diego has only had 'six pure' coronavirus deaths

He has a point. We know this is happening in all the numbers right? We need to know the split. Those dying due to CV and those dying with CV.

 

[10ofRods]

Are your students mainly American or international or mixed? In general I think the under 50's with no underlying health conditions probable think they won't get it or die from it even if they do get it.

Mostly American. But I don't believe this is a specifically American phenomenon.

In California, I do not think that "most under 5o's with no underlying health conditions" think they won't get it.

I see an incredible amount of concern and obeying of social distancing rules. From what I can tell, even in Arizona, as they reopen, people are staying away from many things. Restaurants may not open if when they are allowed, for various reasons.

I think people thought this way back in March, but not now. My students worry more about the social and economic effects of the virus, for sure. Nearly all of the students lost their jobs, and one or both parents did as well. Right now, unemployment is filling the gap for many, but they see what's happening and that retail is not going to reopen.
]

I think that the biggest change in education, will be services to children with disabilities. Right now, the Department of Education has suspended services under an IEP.

How this is going to look when school services are provided, is going to have to be addressed by the Federal government. Because Special Education teachers and service providers can't be treated differently than regular education teachers. That would be a union contract issue.

Very true. But sadly, under current Federal Department of Education policies, the power of public teachers' union is virtual zero. With the pandemic, districts can declare local emergency situations (and States are already doing so).

I've been thinking about this one a lot. With debt now as high or higher than during World War II, will we revert to 1930's levels of social services? Wouldn't be the first time in history that a nation was forced to roll back "social initiatives" to a much lower standard.

My fear is that, just as we're seeing with certain State Supreme Courts, we may see the Federal Courts supporting such changes.

 

[jjenny]

He has a point. We know this is happening in all the numbers right? We need to know the split. Those dying due to CV and those dying with CV.

Any way you look at it, there is a large number of excess deaths compared to previous years. It's a safe bet vast majority of those people are dying because they got infected.

 

[jjenny]

Are they increasing their testing?

They opened up the state, so that was expected.

 

[jjenny]

Maybe just 70+ should think about masks. I certainly don't believe it should be mandatory, but maybe advisory perhaps on public transport.

The cloths masks that people are encouraged to wear are to protect other people from them. These mask will only work if 80% of people wear them. So encouraging those over 70 only to wear these mask is not going to do any good. What is your objection to masks? You don't want to protect other people?

 

[jjenny]

it is statistically verclear


There is so much we don't know about this virus. I remember a few weeks ago when the experts said children don't get the virus (or can't spread it)-- Now we know it can affect children in a very bad way. However, I don't foresee the virus will morph into killing otherwise healthy adults. It is clear this virus has a proclivity for those aged over 65 (especially people 70 and older) who have underlying health conditions, which most elderly people have - the death rate is very high in that age group. younger people do get the virus but most of them recover- though it does kill some younger people.

The only experts saying that were from a small European country. I didn't believe it for a second.

 

[10ofRods]

Georgia

CORONAVIRUS IN GEORGIA: More than 750 new cases confirmed in 24 hours

“As of Friday at 9 a.m., there were 36,544 confirmed cases. That's an increase of 751 new cases from Thursday morning.”

Yikes. Well, we wondered what was going to happen there.

 

[tresir2012]

Whether he did or didn't, isn't the point. There are millions of children with "underlying health conditions" as yet undiagnosed - because they are children. I am quite certain this child would not have died recently without the CoVid.

At any rate, kids have underlying conditions that are not yet diagnosed and they would be the ones at risk, if it's ever shown that it's mostly kids with underlying conditions.

I don't think we can test every single child for every known illness. We cannot know before the child is ill or dies that they were the one who was going to get the Kawasaki style syndrome. Genetic studies of the suffering children will surely be done when doctors turn to longer term research projects, but in the midst of this pandemic, we're getting epidemiological information that alerts doctors for early signs (and the underlying conditions that do exist don't show any sort of underlying pattern so far).

But to answer your question, in the data available, most of the children with the Kawasaki-style symptoms did not exhibit any known condition, which is why the doctors are reporting and writing about it - in 20 nations now. Since it's rare, the data are in no way conclusive. The 9 newborns who died in China exhibited entirely different symptoms, AFAIK. There also seem to be some outlying cases that are not Kawasaki-style but almost entire involve what are essential heart attacks in children (again, it's the epithelial cell attack that CV makes that seems to be the mechanisms

Usually, the term "underlying health condition" means one that is medically diagnosed before an event, not something that is noticed only after death (which can include "pre-existing" conditions). At any rate, the vast majority of children who are at risk due to strange genes or undiagnosed medical conditions cannot be reasonably found and identified.

Fortunately, as @A Night Watchman pointed out, it's very few children. But the situation is concerning, since these kids are getting this syndrome a month or more after CV diagnosis (or without knowing that they'd had asymptomatic CV). Will it be the only syndrome of its type? Is it related to CV's attack on epithelial cells? (It would seem so). Will adults also be experiencing future attacks on their veins and arteries?

We don't know. And until we know, many parents are going to be very concerned. We know that many places shut their schools early, so CoVid has not yet had a chance to run rampant through a child-population.

Since the few cases of underlying conditions don't form a pattern, parents can't know in advance if their child is vulnerable. The mental stress of this kind of concern can be overwhelming and I think future mental health issues can be sure to follow in the wake of this pandemic.

I don't think he died did he? I may be getting the cases mixed up. I thought he had a condition that they did not know about before he got covid.