Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #56

[katydid23]

I love how the new SPIN is that the goal was to flatten the curve, not wait for a vaccine, so MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. No need to keep things closed since the main reason behind that was to not overwhelm the health systems, and flatten the curve.

Except for the fact, that in many states, the curve has not flattened At All. And the only reason the curve is not necessariy skyrocketing, is that some states, especially New York, have actually flattened the curve, so their impact is lower. Meanwhile, other less populated states are accelerating on a per capita basis.

So what we may end up with, is a relatively flat line, but at a high level. In other words, the deaths will keep on a 'comin, some days at 1,000, others a little higher, so the death count will continue to rise.

When flu season hits in a few months, that's when it will get really bad. Since we won't have this miracle vaccine that someone today acted like was happening this year, we're going to go head first into flu season at an elevated death level, since we will never have truly flattened the curve.

And that's if we're lucky. If we're not, pulling back on the lockdown too early, will result in a curve that starts to rise once again just as Summer is getting started.

Yes, the deaths are going to keep on coming because this is a pandemic. And there is no way to totally prevent all of the deaths unless everyone hides away for 2 years or more. and that<<< is impossible.

So the question becomes, should we slowly reopen, and have some moderation in the uptick of new cases NOW? Or should we stay locked down during the summer months, when the virus is more vulnerable to heat and sunlight, and then experience the same number of deaths, a few months from now?

Either way, the deaths are going to happen. All we can truly control is the timeline.

 

[10ofRods]

I love how the new SPIN is that the goal was to flatten the curve, not wait for a vaccine, so MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. No need to keep things closed since the main reason behind that was to not overwhelm the health systems, and flatten the curve.

Except for the fact, that in many states, the curve has not flattened At All. And the only reason the curve is not necessariy skyrocketing, is that some states, especially New York, have actually flattened the curve, so their impact is lower. Meanwhile, other less populated states are accelerating on a per capita basis.

So what we may end up with, is a relatively flat line, but at a high level. In other words, the deaths will keep on a 'comin, some days at 1,000, others a little higher, so the death count will continue to rise.

When flu season hits in a few months, that's when it will get really bad. Since we won't have this miracle vaccine that someone today acted like was happening this year, we're going to go head first into flu season at an elevated death level, since we will never have truly flattened the curve.

And that's if we're lucky. If we're not, pulling back on the lockdown too early, will result in a curve that starts to rise once again just as Summer is getting started.

Yes. And sadly, my prediction of 96,000 deaths by May 23 seems like it might even be a little low if we continue ~1500 deaths a day or, say, 10,000 in a week. We may well be just over 100,000 by next weekend. By Memorial Day, if your theory is correct, we will have a very strange set of decisions to make in June.

I do think you're right. Since it appears no one can get the faster-infected states to slow down by truly shutting down, and they are not at their peak (and no one else is sloping off all that quickly - just kind of slooowly subsiding), what do we do in terms of regional planning?

We're already seeing in California how the places that are more open are attracting people from elsewhere, who are fleeing CV in their own neighborhoods (in their RV's, sleeping in cars, etc). No one is running TO the more infected areas. As in New York, they're doing what they can to get away.

Some states are quarantining travelers from other states. Will more states do that?

 

[firebird]

New York barber who violated lockdown to give hair cuts in his shop tests positive for coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

EXCLUSIVE: New York barber who 'violated lockdown' and got coronavirus insists he was allowed to keep giving haircuts because he was working from home and slams Gov. Cuomo for claiming he infected his customers

‘Cuomo doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about. I’m PO’d about it,’ LaLima told DailyMail.com.

Joseph LaLima Sr, 76, is the barber shop owner based in Kingston, New York, who contracted COVID-19 after giving haircuts in violation of the statewide lockdown

The barber shop is located on Broadway (seen above) in Kingston, New York, about 20 miles north of Poughkeepsie

Oh, okay. He's slamming him for saying he infected customers, not because he caught the virus. That makes sense.

 

[tresir2012]

So 1 in 10 people in that area of Boston have had CV19. And 1 in 40 currently have it. Roughly.

from the link

"Officials said of those tested citywide over the course of the public health emergency, a total of 28 percent had tested positive as of last week.

Dr. Anthony Iafrate, director of the Center for Integrated Diagnostics at MGH, said the study results capture just a snapshot of the virus spread at one moment of time, and pointed out that the antibody rate is by no means near the 70 percent threshold estimated by medical experts that’s needed for “herd immunity.”

“We’re not there,” he said. “We’re not at the 70 percent, ‘We’ve all had it, we’re safe and past this.’ We’re also not at 1 or 2 percent, which you might expect in a more rural community … where the risk of transmission might be low. So we’re somewhere in between an environment where the transmission is low and the risk is low and where we have herd immunity — and that’s a fairly anxious place to be.” "

 

[katydid23]

New York barber who violated lockdown to give hair cuts in his shop tests positive for coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

EXCLUSIVE: New York barber who 'violated lockdown' and got coronavirus insists he was allowed to keep giving haircuts because he was working from home and slams Gov. Cuomo for claiming he infected his customers

‘Cuomo doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about. I’m PO’d about it,’ LaLima told DailyMail.com.

Joseph LaLima Sr, 76, is the barber shop owner based in Kingston, New York, who contracted COVID-19 after giving haircuts in violation of the statewide lockdown

The barber shop is located on Broadway (seen above) in Kingston, New York, about 20 miles north of Poughkeepsie

LaLima said that before the lockdown went into effect he consulted with an attorney who gave him the go-ahead to keep operating his barber shop even though it’s a nonessential business.

‘They said, “Yes, it’s your home, I can work from home”,’ he said.
He told DailyMail.com that he spent five days in the hospital with COVID-19 symptoms, particularly a fever and a cough.

When asked if he was worried about contracting coronavirus given his age and the risk that he could die, he said: ‘I’m a Vietnam veteran. I cut nothing but first responders’ hair, police department.’

LaLima said that despite violating the lockdown, the state authorities did not fine him.

He said that he does not plan to restart his business. After his COVID-19 diagnosis, LaLima said he will now be in quarantine for two weeks.

‘I’m gonna recuperate and I’m gonna reopen [afterward],’ he said.

Ulster County released a statement on Wednesday indicating that the infected barber worked at a shop on Broadway in the town of Kingston, about 20 miles north of Poughkeepsie.

The county health commissioner is advising anyone who received a haircut in a barber shop in Kingston in the past three weeks to get tested for the coronavirus.

'Barber in Kingston was operating in defiance of the close order, infected I think over a dozen people,' Cuomo said during his routine coronavirus briefing on Friday.

'You know, that is a occupation of close proximity, right?
=============================================================

I don't blame the man for criticising Cuomo. Without any evidence, apparently, Cuomo accused the man of 'infecting' over a dozen people. Pretty serious accusation to make with the words ' I think' he did so.

The barber spoke with an attorney first, to make sure he was legal. And he was cutting the hair of first responders. So what are the chances that the barber was the one infecting his clients? I'd say their jobs were very high risk, and they likely were infected at work. Reportedly 1 out of 6 officers were positive for CV.

I think we need to stop making scapegoats out of hard working citizens, and try to stop pointing fingers. JMO

 

[10ofRods]

Wouldn't they need to first change or eliminate all the protections provided by IDEA and disability laws? They can't just eliminate all those services provided under the laws, without changing those laws first. Could they? I used to visit the district office quite often, and was always bothered by the number of Mercedes vehicles in the lot, belonging to administrators.

Well, it's a long story and it's too political to tell here.

Laws can be unfunded mandates. Federal laws are only as good as federally funded enforcement, especially in education. And facing this crisis, even in states with their own local mandates, we may have to do what we did in 2008 and cut back some funding to such programs, especially in areas that were planning innovation and increased facilities or spending. California is going to spread the pain equally, across the whole system, but not every state is that way and California hasn't always been so egalitarian.

For example, California enacted a law lowering classroom size, but in districts where the size is exceeded and they're still nearing bankruptcy, California doesn't do anything but tell them to "fix it" within 5-7 years. Even if parents sue, the School Districts do not have deep pockets. People could then sue the State or the Federal Government. That's a really slow, laborious way to fix de-funding issues.

In some States, the State Supreme Court will make initial rulings. But that's too political to go into right now.

 

[Cool Cats]

Yes. And sadly, my prediction of 96,000 deaths by May 23 seems like it might even be a little low if we continue ~1500 deaths a day or, say, 10,000 in a week. We may well be just over 100,000 by next weekend. By Memorial Day, if your theory is correct, we will have a very strange set of decisions to make in June.

I do think you're right. Since it appears no one can get the faster-infected states to slow down by truly shutting down, and they are not at their peak (and no one else is sloping off all that quickly - just kind of slooowly subsiding), what do we do in terms of regional planning?

We're already seeing in California how the places that are more open are attracting people from elsewhere, who are fleeing CV in their own neighborhoods (in their RV's, sleeping in cars, etc). No one is running TO the more infected areas. As in New York, they're doing what they can to get away.

Some states are quarantining travelers from other states. Will more states do that?

BBM

How do they do that? I haven't heard of this. Quarantining people coming in from other countries is the most I have heard of, not States quarantining people driving into their States.

There are/were roadblocks around Gallop NM to turn certain people away, and the Sioux Indian Reservation is using road blocks to protect themselves even though they were ordered to take them down. Local LE really do not want to wade into this one!

Last modified on Thu 14 May 2020 06.32 EDT
South Dakota governor threatens to sue over Sioux's coronavirus roadblocks

A checkpoint operates at the entrance to the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation in South Dakota.

 

[SoCalDavidS]

Yes, the deaths are going to keep on coming because this is a pandemic. And there is no way to totally prevent all of the deaths unless everyone hides away for 2 years or more. and that<<< is impossible.

So the question becomes, should we slowly reopen, and have some moderation in the uptick of new cases NOW? Or should we stay locked down during the summer months, when the virus is more vulnerable to heat and sunlight, and then experience the same number of deaths, a few months from now?

Either way, the deaths are going to happen. All we can truly control is the timeline.

There it is. That is the bar, eh? A Thousand or so deaths a day nationwide. Perhaps another Couple of Thousand a day entering the hospital. And another 10,000+ Daily contracting the virus, and having to self quarantine, sometimes with more severe complications than the common flu.

But let's just go on with life and try not to notice.

That's fine, I'll just continue to stay at home and watch it all unfold on TV. At least I'll know I'm doing what I can not to contract nor spread the virus.

 

[CSIDreamer]

I love how the new SPIN is that the goal was to flatten the curve, not wait for a vaccine, so MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. No need to keep things closed since the main reason behind that was to not overwhelm the health systems, and flatten the curve.

Except for the fact, that in many states, the curve has not flattened At All. And the only reason the curve is not necessariy skyrocketing, is that some states, especially New York, have actually flattened the curve, so their impact is lower. Meanwhile, other less populated states are accelerating on a per capita basis.

So what we may end up with, is a relatively flat line, but at a high level. In other words, the deaths will keep on a 'comin, some days at 1,000, others a little higher, so the death count will continue to rise.

When flu season hits in a few months, that's when it will get really bad. Since we won't have this miracle vaccine that someone today acted like was happening this year, we're going to go head first into flu season at an elevated death level, since we will never have truly flattened the curve.

And that's if we're lucky. If we're not, pulling back on the lockdown too early, will result in a curve that starts to rise once again just as Summer is getting started.

IMO. It was to flatten the curve and not overwhelm hospitals. With the exception of a few states, that has been accomplished.

 

[firebird]

BBM

How do they do that? I haven't heard of this. Quarantining people coming in from other countries is the most I have heard of.

There are/were roadblocks around Gallop NM to turn certain people away, and the Sioux Indian Reservation is using road blocks to protect themselves even though they were ordered to take them down. Local LE really do not want to wade into this one!

South Dakota governor threatens to sue over Sioux's coronavirus roadblocks

I've heard on the radio that Hawaii is quarantining tourists in their hotels for 14 days. There was a couple who was arrested for going out for pizza on their honeymoon


https://nypost.com/2020/05/03/honeymooners-arrested-in-hawaii-after-violating-mandatory-quarantine/

 

[SoCalDavidS]

I don't blame the man for criticising Cuomo. Without any evidence, apparently, Cuomo accused the man of 'infecting' over a dozen people. Pretty serious accusation to make with the words ' I think' he did so.

The barber spoke with an attorney first, to make sure he was legal. And he was cutting the hair of first responders. So what are the chances that the barber was the one infecting his clients? I'd say their jobs were very high risk, and they likely were infected at work. Reportedly 1 out of 6 officers were positive for CV.

I think we need to stop making scapegoats out of hard working citizens, and try to stop pointing fingers. JMO

What are the odds that he caught the virus from an infected 1st responder, then gave it to one or more other 1st responders? But that's ok, right? He's just a hard working citizen.

I'm wasting my time here, that's the way it's become these days. I'll quit while I'm still sane.

 

[CSIDreamer]

There it is. That is the bar, eh? A Thousand or so deaths a day nationwide. Perhaps another Couple of Thousand a day entering the hospital. And another 10,000+ Daily contracting the virus, and having to self quarantine, sometimes with more severe complications than the common flu.

But let's just go on with life and try not to notice.

That's fine, I'll just continue to stay at home and watch it all unfold on TV. At least I'll know I'm doing what I can not to contract nor spread the virus.

What is your solution? I'm curious.

 

[SoCalDavidS]

IMO. It was to flatten the curve and not overwhelm hospitals. With the exception of a few states, that has been accomplished.

The curve is Not Flattened when over 1,000 are dying each day. Flattening the curve at a high level of deaths and virus spread was not the goal.

But whatever, so many people have been right so far, while those of us talking gibberish have been so so wrong, that it's obviously a complete waste of time for us to continue explaining. Go ahead and open, and enjoy your life. Many of us, and I do mean Many, won't be participating. And eventually.....perhaps.....some will realize that you can run a functioning economy, when people are scared of contracting a deadly virus, that is very much alive and well and spreading nationwide and worldwide. We shall see, and then the goalposts can be moved by those who were wrong yet again.

 

[MimosaMornings]

BBM

How do they do that? I haven't heard of this. Quarantining people coming in from other countries is the most I have heard of, not States quarantining people driving into their States.

There are/were roadblocks around Gallop NM to turn certain people away, and the Sioux Indian Reservation is using road blocks to protect themselves even though they were ordered to take them down. Local LE really do not want to wade into this one!

Last modified on Thu 14 May 2020 06.32 EDT
South Dakota governor threatens to sue over Sioux's coronavirus roadblocks

A checkpoint operates at the entrance to the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation in South Dakota.

Travelers caught disobeying the Texas self-quarantine order could face jail time

 

[MajorHoople]

No Knox County residents hospitalized due to COVID-19

New data released by the Knox County Health Department showed that no Knox County residents were hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Friday.

Positive cases: 305

Deaths: 5

Recovered: 233

Active cases: 67

Hospitallizations: 37

Currently Hospitalized: 0

 

[mickey2942]

Wouldn't they need to first change or eliminate all the protections provided by IDEA and disability laws? They can't just eliminate all those services provided under the laws, without changing those laws first. Could they? I used to visit the district office quite often, and was always bothered by the number of Mercedes vehicles in the lot, belonging to administrators.

What would have to happen would be at the federal level, because IEP services are based on federal law. Which is why the Department of Education stepped in to suspend IEP services at this time.

I could go into a personal story...but will stay on topic here. Just one more layer of mess with this pandemic. For everyone. Teachers, kids, parents...administration. My heart goes out to them all.

 

[SoCalDavidS]

What is your solution? I'm curious.

My solution is to follow, or at least attempt to follow, the so-called guidelines that were introduced in a news conference not more than a month ago. TWO WEEKS OF DECLINE BEFORE RE-OPENING. There are only a handful of states where that is true. Some states not only don't have 2 weeks of decline, they're still Increasing in cases and deaths.

Again, whatever. I'm not going to change a fraction of the minds that are already made up on this. I still tend to believe in one thing. THE VIRUS! The virus is still spreading, the virus is still capable of spreading more rapidly, and the virus does not care about the economy or who it infects, though it does seem to pack more of a punch with some people.

The push to re-open is primarily political, and so that is why many minds are made up. Which is not to say that some are not in financial need, but to some, it's worth the sacrifice of 1,000+ each day, so that we can say the economy is functioning. Which it won't, because too many will be rightfully scared since the virus has in no way been truly contained(not eliminated), since we basically gave up on that.

 

[ilovewings]

I have no idea why some people trying so hard to minimize this horrible disease. Vast majority of people with pre-existing conditions weren't going to die from these conditions any time soon, until they got infected with covid.
"The study, which is awaiting peer review, estimated that the average years of life lost for a sample of coronavirus patients in Italy when controlling for a set of common underlying conditions was 13 years for men and 11 years for women."
A new analysis of COVID-19 deaths estimates the patients might otherwise have lived much longer — regardless of underlying condition

k

i often think all those poor souls would still be alive but for this killing virus-it is so sad

 

[Cool Cats]

Travelers caught disobeying the Texas self-quarantine order could face jail time

Thanks for clearing up the mystery. States can quarantine visitors from hotspots only if they are coming into the States on flights.

So if you fly into TX from Detroit, you have to quarantine. If you drive into TX from Detroit no one will know, no will quarantine you.

No one drives into Hawaii so no sneaking in.....humm...

Wait, you could boat into Hawaii.....

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Dr. Seheult is covering what many here have wanted... adding info on Zinc as an ionophore, finally, in studies. It's just a retrospective, but it appears that folks are now catching onto such that we've been posting about for 2 months (zinc needed)..

He also is pointing out that such needs to be given EARLY in the disease or doesn't have effect (e.d. think snake bite venom... only works if done early) .. which really is not good for past and needs to be considered for the future, as we have seen from the beginning that folks couldn't get into the hospital unless they were REALLY downhill and to the point of life saving. HOPEFULLY, that will change. Just like with Tamaflu and antivenom for snake bites, you need to get to the drug FASSSSSSSSSSSSSSST! IYKWIM In other words also, quoting from paper "As such, zinc may have a role in preventing the virus from progressing to severe disease, but once the aberrant production of systemic immune mediators is initiated, known as cytokine storm, the addition of zinc may no longer be effective".

He covers paper and reviews first in vivo evidence that zinc helps with COVID, and how New York changed their protocol to add zinc.

and he also is speaking to Youtube is policing and taking down videos by automated computers e.g. "bots"

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 71: New Data on Adding Zinc to Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin

I was taking zinc but have stopped because of the medical information I have read. Building up on zinc is not the right protocol... it is to be used with initial symptoms of flu, cold or I gues covid.... You have to take it at the very onset of such disease...and only then.
Zinc could help diminish the extent of COVID-19 - UCHealth Today