Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #58

[Simply Southern]

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC

Here's some info on the 'flu. Looks pretty bad to me but they only seem to be estimating.

Yes, they are projections based on flu test/#ER/DR visits for TESTED positive and negative cases. A factor is built in for those that have flu not do not receive medical care.

**Side note....the flu surveillance data, was our first "look" at possible Covid. It showed high numbers of flu testing in Dec/Jan/Feb were negative with a high number of test. This was disproportionate from previous history. Moo...

 

[ilovewings]

\]
[;

Well, we did have a Pandemic Response Team back in 2016. I wonder what happened to it.

I guess it mysteriously disappeared!!!!!! funny how that happens

 

[CharlestonGal]

Ouch.

"Official statement from Bishop Provenzano about the White House directive to open churches for public events
To all the People of God gathered in the Diocese of Long Island, the Episcopal Church in Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau and Suffolk:

Regardless of the misinformed and politically-motivated direction coming from the White House, the Church will continue to be the Church, caring for the safety of all people and protecting the health and well being of our parishioners.

The Church will continue to be the Church and our buildings will remain closed until we can begin to safely gather in person."

The Episcopal Diocese of Long Island: Official statement from Bishop Provenzano about the White House directive to open churches for public events

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19 - ScienceDirect

In a cohort of 175 recovered COVID-19 patients, SARS-CoV-2-specific serum neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) were detected at considerable, albeit variable, titers in most (n = 165) individuals (Wu et al., 2020b), indicating that the production of NAb against SARS-CoV-2 is relatively common.

Whereas these findings are promising, other important questions to consider are whether NAb titers will wane over time and how long acquired immunity will last. Previous studies in confirmed SARS patients have demonstrated that NAb responses against SARS-CoV persisted for several months to 2 years, although all individuals displayed low titers after about 15 months (Mo et al., 2006). Further, elevated concentrations of specific antibodies to coronavirus 229E, one of the viruses responsible for the common cold, were found 1 year after infection, although these titers were not sufficient to prevent reinfection in all individuals (Callow et al., 1990). Together, these studies suggest that protection against reinfection with coronavirus species tends to diminish given sufficient time, although longitudinal serological studies are needed to assess the duration of SARS-CoV-2 immunity.

If this proves to also be true for SARS-CoV-2, persistent herd immunity may never be attained in the absence of recurrent vaccination.

Indeed, modeling of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 predicts that short-term immunity (∼10 months) would give rise to annual outbreaks, while longer-term immunity (∼2 years) would lead to biennial outbreaks (Kissler et al., 2020). Mass serological testing is now needed to determine how many individuals have been infected, how many individuals are immune, and how far we are from reaching the herd immunity threshold. That said, even if reinfection can occur after sterilizing immunity wanes, enduring memory cells of the adaptive immune system would likely facilitate immune control of the virus and limit disease pathology, which would hopefully decrease the clinical severity of subsequent infections.

In its simplest form, herd immunity will begin to take effect when a population reaches the herd immunity threshold, namely when the proportion of individuals who are immune to the pathogen crosses 1 – 1/R0.

Much more at link

 

[jjenny]

Well, if immunity doesn't last long, we will have to do annual vaccinations. We do it for flu.

 

[tresir2012]

Ouch.

"Official statement from Bishop Provenzano about the White House directive to open churches for public events
To all the People of God gathered in the Diocese of Long Island, the Episcopal Church in Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau and Suffolk:

Regardless of the misinformed and politically-motivated direction coming from the White House, the Church will continue to be the Church, caring for the safety of all people and protecting the health and well being of our parishioners.

The Church will continue to be the Church and our buildings will remain closed until we can begin to safely gather in person."

The Episcopal Diocese of Long Island: Official statement from Bishop Provenzano about the White House directive to open churches for public events

Even the Church is making political announcements now.

 

[CharlestonGal]

"The results obtained demonstrate that aerosol particles generated by coughing and sneezing can travel over 30 m. Modelling of the evolution of aerosol clouds generated by coughing and sneezing enables us to evaluate the deposition dose of aerosol particles in healthy individuals. For example, a person in a public place (e.g. supermarket or car park) can accumulate in the respiratory system up to 200 virus copies in 2 min time by breathing in virus laden aerosols. Wearing face mask considerably reduces the deposited load down to 2 virus copies per 2 min. The modelling also suggests that it should be possible to measure virus causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) within aerosol particles in hospitals and public places, e.g. care homes and supermarkets."

Aerosol Particles Laden with Viruses That Cause COVID-19 Travel Over 30m Distance

 

[tresir2012]

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)

At the bottom are charts, weekly by lab type.


Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

Ok thanks so they say they don't have an accurate figure as it is a non reportable disease but 24,000 - 62,000 flu deaths have been estimated from 1Oct2019 to 4Apr2020.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Even the Church is making political announcements now.

I wish everyone would just stop fighting. It's completely nonproductive.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Well, if immunity doesn't last long, we will have to do annual vaccinations. We do it for flu.

I wonder if it's possible to create a combination vaccine for flu/covid in one shot. Kind of like MMR.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

I'm leaning towards leaving the US altogether until it gets its act together.

Iceland, New Zealand and Australia all seem like reasonable bets and I like all three of them pretty much equally. I don't know if any of them are issuing visas to Americans at the moment though. I probably wouldn't if I were them, but one can hope.

Me too... have thought about Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island.... fantasies..but certainly a quieter life. But it would have to be a year from now...since I wouldn't to go North during Autumn/Winter...

 

[nhmemorymaker]

That's not news. They are using "modeling" to claim it will disappear. You can make your model to do whatever you want. And covid models have been all over the place.

If we see this data in other press, besides Daily Mail...that would be better

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Tocilizumab (Actemra)

Tocilizumab blocks the inflammatory protein IL-6. This improves joint pain and swelling from arthritis and other symptoms caused by inflammation.

So like Hydroxy?

What did i miss, tresir.... what is the origin of this discussion about this drug????

 

[tresir2012]

What did i miss, tresir.... what is the origin of this discussion about this drug????

A Doctor called Fiske was given it and it saved his life basically. I'll find the link again.

He ran marathons and was fit. So why did Covid-19 almost kill him? - STAT

 

[ilovewings]

I wish everyone would just stop fighting. It's completely nonproductive.

i dont see it as fighting--- people are pretty emotional about this pandemic-- sometimes
it is hard to separate politics from this pandemic-- we do a pretty good job of separating
it here on this forum---- but once in a while some of us just cant help making a po!itical
comment--not very often though

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Half full please. And no second wave. Plus any medication I could lay my hands on, plus nicotine patches, zinc, Vit C and D and the best anti viral out there.
So flu deaths were 35k even with vaccines. That's the best we can hope for with CV19 in 20/21, I guess.

Vitamin B, and NAC too!! Sr. Seheult definitely takes NAC, and Quercetin... his explanations made them a "must get" for me...

 

[CharlestonGal]

Ok thanks so they say they don't have an accurate figure as it is a non reportable disease but 24,000 - 62,000 flu deaths have been estimated from 1Oct2019 to 4Apr2020.

The CDC calculates that 26 million of us contract the flu each year (US). We already have 100,000 dead from covid with just 1.7 million known cases. That's a sobering bit of information.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Immune clue sparks coronavirus treatment hope
UK scientists are to begin testing a treatment that it is hoped could counter the effects of Covid-19 in the most seriously ill patients.

It has been found those with the most severe form of the disease have extremely low numbers of an immune cell called a T-cell.

T-cells clear infection from the body.

The clinical trial will evaluate if a drug called interleukin 7, known to boost T-cell numbers, can aid patients' recovery.

Details at link.

that is the key AIDS drug, right?

 

[tresir2012]

i dont see it as fighting--- people are pretty emotional about this pandemic-- sometimes
it is hard to separate politucs from this pandemic-- we do a pretty good job of separating
it here on this forum---- but once in a while some of us just cant help making a po!itical
comment--not very often though

I think Charleston was referring to the comment the guy in the article stated. No one is fighting or making political comments here, just commenting on articles.

 

[tresir2012]

that is the key AIDS drug, right?

Not sure but this is the hospital that saved the PM's life.

"Manu Shankar-Hari, a critical care consultant at Guy's and St Thomas' Hospital, said that around 70% of patients that he sees in intensive care with Covid-19 arrive with between 400-800 lymphocytes per microlitre. "When they start to recover, their lymphocyte level also starts to go back up," he added.

• How long does it take to recover from coronavirus?
• How close are we to a cure for coronavirus?
• When will we have a coronavirus vaccine?

Interleukin 7 has already been tested in a small group of patients with sepsis and proved to safely increase the production of these specific cells.

In this trial, it will be given to patients with a low lymphocyte count who have been in critical care for more than three days."

Immune clue sparks coronavirus treatment hope