Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #60

[tresir2012]

I can't. The world has become too confusing for my poor brain to compute anything.

And Mr HKP has taken clippers to his head again and looks like Beaker from the Muppet Show

Ode To Joy Muppets GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

 

[weepingangel]

Beaker is my favorite muppet. Love love Beaker and Swedish Chef.
CNN did a TownHall combo with Sesame Street for children on racism. I wonder if SS ever addressed CoVid.

Yes I’m almost certain that Sesame did a covid town hall

 

[10ofRods]

@10ofRods I’m curious what life expectancy calculator you used that factored in the pandemic and showed you such a dramatic reduction since Dec 2019. I looked and didn’t find one. The ones I used did factor in health conditions, exercise, smoking, alcohol use, etc. Even being an overweight slug I scored high. I’m in a high risk group for Covid-19 (age 74) and don’t mind staying home for the long haul. I’m OK with dying sooner...but not that way! Not that we normally get to choose.

When I was first working in epidemiology and hospitals, an elderly doctor synopsed a lot of advice he gave to his medical residents:

If you can survive your 50's and 60's, your chances of surviving to 85 are very very good.

This was of course pre-CoVid. But his point was that many many people are weeded out by cancers, heart attacks, hypertension during those decades - they probably have a genetic propensity. Today, we encourage them to live healthier.

But, everyone who has worked in an ER feels a sinking feeling if a 50 year old arrives with a heartache - it's probably sudden and bad. A 75 year is like to survive a mild heart attack and more likely to have one (gradual onset of arterial issues as opposed to a major weakness in the heart).

So you're good. Statistically, under the old tables of LE, you have a life expectancy of about 85 (if you and I lost weight, we could add 3 years - oh well). If you avoid CoVid and don't get depressed because of it, you've still got that life expectancy.

And that's the reason I sobered up and started taking this seriously. I am younger than you - and haven't lived through my 60's, so my projected life expectancy is only 79 to begin with.

My dad, when he turned 90, had a life expectancy of 99! (And that is indeed how old he was when he died). If he had lived to 100, it would have been 102. When I told him that he got mad. "Oh no way! I don't want to live to be 102! What are you talking about??"

If I should live to be 90 (this is all statistics, we are each individuals) - then I too would have a life expectancy of about 98 right now. But my dad's whole family has amazing genes and I'm adopted (my bio-dad's family does not have such amazing genes).

 

[Lilibet]

It's not a calculator. It's a pre-print of life expectancy for use in medicine - and actuarial studies. I've posted it here (it was about 3 weeks ago, though so I'll go find it again and edit this post.

It is probably going to affect life insurance rates as these studies come out - regardless of whether people believe or accept the news. It's based on the fact that most think CV will be endemic in our hemisphere for at least a decade. That's based on other viruses with similar contagion profiles. Very old people are probably not going to be able to develop full antibodies even with a vaccine. We're already seeing a decrease in people over 100, and soon it will be a decrease in the percentage of us who live to be 95. That affects overall LE quite a bit and of course, lots of 80 and 90 year olds will also continue to die (we had 2 in my city of 100,000 last night). So it will be rare to live to be 95, just as it is rare to live to be 105 today.

US life expectancy in the year 1900 was 65 for women, 60 for men.

ETA: Article is behind a pay wall (and the numbers are a bit worse than what I quoted): here's the relevant part:

//Years of life lost

For men the average YLL on adjusting for number and type of LTC as well as age was 13.1 (12.2–14.1). For women this value was 10.5 (9.7–11.3). The results were similar under the different assumptions for the age-multimorbidity association and in both sensitivity analyses, whether assuming strongly correlated or independent LTCs (Table 1). For comparison, the YLL based on age alone using the WHO tables was 14.0 and 11.8 for men and women, respectively.//

Here's the citation:

COVID-19 – exploring the... | Wellcome Open Research

There are other publications saying similar things (in fact, I know I saw a more optimistic study, which is what I quoted, but it was a pre-print and this one is I believe now published).

I'll find the others when I can. At any rate, I believe people should take this into consideration when planning for retirement and how they're going to live in retirement. Healthy life expectancy was already declining in the US, after a century of rising. But this is a big hit, this virus.

Thanks @10ofRods. I’ll study this.

 

[tresir2012]

Southern Oregon here. I haven’t shopped for groceries in person since March 13, and my husband stopped in early May, but our Instacart orders are coming with only a few substitutions or deletions, so far. Maybe we order off-beat stuff. But I do expect shortages based on articles like the one you linked.

I have been normal shopping weekly/every 10 days and no TP or paper towel shortages, or food shortages. Fed up that pubs and restaurants are still closed with Wales case and death rates being so low. No shops open, no markets open, town like a ghost town, no libraries or cinemas open, no tourist businesses or tourists around, beach car parks closed. Don't know when anything will be open either.

 

[tmar]

Starbucks closing hundreds of stores after losing $3bn in latest quarter amid coronavirus lockdown


Starbucks closing hundreds of stores after losing $3bn in latest quarter amid coronavirus lockdown

James Crump
1 hour ago
...
Starbucks has announced that it will be closing hundreds of stores in the US, after predicting a $3.2bn (AUD$4.55bn) loss, due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The coffee chain said that the pandemic has sped up its plans to close 400 stores, so that they can introduce more pick up cafes in densely populated areas, according to CNBC.

They will now close 400 stores over the next 18 months, instead of the already planned three to five years, due to financial losses from the pandemic.
The coffee chain had also planned to open 600 new stores in the US in 2020, but after struggling financially, they have decided to only open 300, according to the outlet.

Starbucks’ stock has fallen 10 per cent this year, and shares of the company fell by more than 3 per cent on Wednesday, as the US still eases out of lockdown.

 

[Lilibet]

When I was first working in epidemiology and hospitals, an elderly doctor synopsed a lot of advice he gave to his medical residents:

If you can survive your 50's and 60's, your chances of surviving to 85 are very very good.

This was of course pre-CoVid. But his point was that many many people are weeded out by cancers, heart attacks, hypertension during those decades - they probably have a genetic propensity. Today, we encourage them to live healthier.

But, everyone who has worked in an ER feels a sinking feeling if a 50 year old arrives with a heartache - it's probably sudden and bad. A 75 year is like to survive a mild heart attack and more likely to have one (gradual onset of arterial issues as opposed to a major weakness in the heart).

So you're good. Statistically, under the old tables of LE, you have a life expectancy of about 85 (if you and I lost weight, we could add 3 years - oh well). If you avoid CoVid and don't get depressed because of it, you've still got that life expectancy.

And that's the reason I sobered up and started taking this seriously. I am younger than you - and haven't lived through my 60's, so my projected life expectancy is only 79 to begin with.

My dad, when he turned 90, had a life expectancy of 99! (And that is indeed how old he was when he died). If he had lived to 100, it would have been 102. When I told him that he got mad. "Oh no way! I don't want to live to be 102! What are you talking about??"

If I should live to be 90 (this is all statistics, we are each individuals) - then I too would have a life expectancy of about 98 right now. But my dad's whole family has amazing genes and I'm adopted (my bio-dad's family does not have such amazing genes).

I was pretty sure that the longer you’ve already lived, the longer your life expectancy is, so thanks for confirming. But yikes! 79 isn’t old old. On two of the calculators (with the most questions) I came out at 92, which is how old my Mom was when she died. The third one with fewer questions was 88, which is my 75 year old husbands life expectancy. But I figure the 85 you mentioned is more realistic. My Mom was pretty much “done” in her late 80’s, so I understand your Dad.

 

[tresir2012]

Coronavirus: Evening update

1. England's bubble plan.

2. UK recession worst in Europe

3. 1300 cases earlier than thought

4. Locking down a week earlier would have halved deaths.

5. Schools plans in disarray.

Details at link.

 

[tmar]

Covid 19 has caused a great deal of money worries.
Tips follow to be smart with your money: be prepared/have savings etc.


The simple money mistakes smart people don't make

lovemoney staff
1 day ago

Altrendo images/Shuttlestock

Sticking your head in the sand.
The first step to sorting out your finances is accepting that they might not be in great shape. The challenge then is deciding to take action instead of sticking your head in the sand. Ignoring money worries can seem like an appealing short-term solution, but you've got to tackle your problems head-on if you're serious about getting cash savvy.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

4. Locking down a week earlier would have halved deaths.

Prof Ferguson (the coronavirus stats adviser who quit his SAGE role for breaking lockdown) is the one who has said this. However, he does not appear to be apportioning blame on the government, saying “So whilst I think the measures, given what we knew about this virus then in terms of its transmission and fatality, were warranted, certainly had we introduced them earlier we would have seen many fewer deaths”

Meanwhile, Chris Whitty's number 1 regret is not testing faster:

Lockdown one week earlier could have halved UK's death toll, says ex-government scientist

As for the 1300 people bringing it into the UK, I have always thought it was those pesky half term skiing holidays that kickstarted it, it's a shame the airports weren't locked down sooner - we're on an island, we could have controlled it better. Difficult to just shut down one of the busiest airport hub countries in the world, but even a few days earlier would have helped.

 

[SoCalDavidS]

Beaker is my favorite muppet. Love love Beaker and Swedish Chef.
CNN did a TownHall combo with Sesame Street for children on racism. I wonder if SS ever addressed CoVid.

CNN did the same Saturday Town Hall with Sesame Street discussing Covid-19, and that was about 6-8 weeks ago.

 

[SoCalDavidS]

The 1st test of my will power since March. I have an Annual Pass, do I dare go?

Disneyland Resort Proposes Plans to Begin Phased Reopening July 9, with Proposed Reopening of Theme Parks July 17

 

[tabitha111]

Vent...My 89 year old father who is a recent, only been a year, cancer survivor is running around in and out of all the stores, and refuses to wear a mask. All 8 of us kids have sent him and my mother lots of masks btw I even had two specially made for him with the Air Force logos, with soft ties, and super comfortable...but nope, he refuse, even though our Gov made it mandatory. I give up on him, it saddens me that he puts my 87 year old mother at risk and my 60 year old disabled sister with diabetes, who had a bout of pneumonia at Christmas at risk!! Plus this is a suburb of DC, highly congested, high risk, high numbers.

 

[tmar]

There has been a discussion, how one case at a wedding, contributed to 30 others.
So here, say one case may contribute to 20 others, we have 120 X 20 preventions from entering the community.

WA's hotel quarantine prevents 120 COVID-19 cases entering community

WA's hotel quarantine prevents 120 COVID-19 cases entering community

Heather McNeill
1 hour ago
...
WA's mandatory hotel quarantine period has prevented 120 positive coronavirus cases from entering the community with infections.

The cases were picked up in the ten weeks between March 27 and June 9, when the returned international travellers were forced to isolate for 14 days within a Perth hotel room or Rottnest Island unit.
To date more than 6000 people have entered hotel quarantine in WA, with 1100 tested, representing a COVID-19 positive rate of about two per cent, or one in every 50 people.

 

[tmar]

CARE Australia's response to COVID-19 coronavirus and the hunger crisis
COVID-19: a deadly new threat to the global hunger crisis
The number of people starving is expected to double in 2020
...
As the coronavirus continues to wreak its havoc on the health and economies of countries around the world, the anticipated food shortages in already struggling countries like Yemen will be disastrous.

We need to act now by getting people critical soap, clean water and information on how to prevent the spread of the virus before it’s too late. CARE is doing this urgent work, which could be the difference between life and death for thousands of people, and will be vital in stopping the spread throughout communities who are already starving hungry and need life to return to normal as soon as possible.

 

[MrX]

The 1st test of my will power since March. I have an Annual Pass, do I dare go?

Disneyland Resort Proposes Plans to Begin Phased Reopening July 9, with Proposed Reopening of Theme Parks July 17

It's an individual decision, but it just seems so obvious (to me, anyway) that there have always only been two choices with this: either stay locked up until the virus as been medically eradicated, or take your chances and hope that if you contract the virus, you are one of the 35% that doesn't even know it (yes, that figure is not certain, but it's the last I saw.)

Everything in between just looks and feels like what an OCD sufferer goes through, except played out on a societal scale. No amount of wishing or hectoring is going to change how people interact, in the U.S., anyway. If/when you finally do go out in the world, expect a massive shock - I can report that there is little to no distancing and/or other protocols being practiced in places that are open. I have been very cavalier about this, since the start, but am planning to start carrying my N95 mask everywhere I go - just in case.

And if you sneeze, remember, sometimes an allergy is still just an allergy.

 

[anneg]

So sad for the little children, who are missing so much. And their parents, and you, and ... pretty much everyone.

I wonder when we will get to see our son and DIL and our two grandsons again. They are New Englanders, and we're in NC. I'm glad we visited them twice last year (summer and Christmas). Older grandson is in your neck of the woods at UCSB, by the way.

 

[24Roses]

More Iowa news: Fair Board votes to postpone 2020 Iowa State Fair
Family seeks workers compensation payment from Tyson after Iowa man dies of COVID-19

 

[LadyL]

Twin Cities suburban here. Food shortages. Is this for real?

I have noticed in the past several weeks that grocery stores are running really low on supplies. At first, I thought it was just crazy buying as in TP and paper towels, but today I realized shortages affect every aisle. Seems every time I go to the store there are empty shelves. How bad is this going to hit the US? This could be more frightening than the economy and COVID-19.
Coronavirus outbreaks at 60 U.S. plants raise specter of more food shortages

not sure I haven't been in a store for awhile - we order pickup
I've been in the drugstore and they had the typical empty spots (ie) lysol wipes, toilet paper

 

[LadyL]

I have been normal shopping weekly/every 10 days and no TP or paper towel shortages, or food shortages. Fed up that pubs and restaurants are still closed with Wales case and death rates being so low. No shops open, no markets open, town like a ghost town, no libraries or cinemas open, no tourist businesses or tourists around, beach car parks closed. Don't know when anything will be open either.

you live in Wales? my favorite place on Earth