Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #60

[jjenny]

I had been afraid that this would happen since the very beginning of the crisis.

The US is losing the ‘discipline’ to fight coronavirus and is ‘leaving the battlefield before the war is over’

I wouldn't call it "leaving the battlefield" before the war is over. I would call it "giving up and dying on a battlefield."
If other people are not wearing masks, forget cloth masks. Get an N95, goggles and a face shield. You have to protect yourself.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Health Minister says virus reproductive rate 'staying remarkably stable'

Ireland

HEALTH MINISTER SIMON Harris has said the virus reproductive rate is staying “remarkably stable”, estimated to be between 0.4 and 0.8.

The reproductive rate gives an indication of the number of other people who are infected by a positive case.

Harris informed the Daíl that he was told by chair of the modelling advisory group Professor Philip Nolan that “we can be confident it remains below one this week”.

He said there is no evidence that it is either increasing or decreasing, adding that it is staying “remarkably stable”.

He said this was a testament to the “huge efforts” made by people in this country. Harris asked people to keep a list of the people they meet with to help with contact tracing and said they should not go to work if they feel sick.

Earlier this week Professor Nolan told the Oireachtas Covid-19 Special Committee that he would be “sounding an alarm” if that number started to approach one again. He has pointed out that as the number of new cases drops, it becomes more difficult to estimate this number as there is less data to work with.

The health minister also told the Dáil that the number of patients with Covid-19 in hospitals is now 75, with 29 people in intensive care.

 

[SoCalDavidS]

I wouldn't call it "leaving the battlefield" before the war is over. I would call it "giving up and dying on a battlefield."
If other people are not wearing masks, forget cloth masks. Get an N95, goggles and a face shield. You have to protect yourself.

I'm a hockey fan, and I put it in terms of having a 2 goal lead at the end of the 1st intermission, and thinking the game was in the bag. Though I'm not sure 115K deaths to this point should be considered "having a lead."

 

[MimosaMornings]

I am with you. My job, that seemed amazingly secure, is now, potentially gone. I was planning on additional training, no funding. Forget that. My goal, was a smooth ten more years to a nice retirement.

Now, it is "One Day at a Time". Who knows?

My work contract was severed when they wanted me to keep flying every week back in April and I chose not to. I am ineligible for unemployment benefits due to that decision.
And I’m years away from being old enough to draw SS. I’ve applied for jobs and keep hoping something will work out!

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus in Scotland: R-rate falls & two metre rule remains - BBC News

Summary

1. The Scottish government reveals the latest data about the R-number - on the June 5 it was estimated to be between 0.6 and 0.8
2. In order for more restrictions to be lifted the re-infection rate needs to be as low as possible - and ideally at zero
3. Nicola Sturgeon says that based on the evidence, there will be no change to the two metre rule
4. As many as 1,800 jobs could be axed by the Macdonald Hotel chain
5. The construction industry can move from its preparatory phase. Work on building sites can be carried out and be restored to full capacity "gradually"
6. Latest figures show there are 628,200 furloughed workers in Scotland
7. MPs will question Scotland's health secretary on the response to the pandemic

 

[SoCalDavidS]

Health Minister says virus reproductive rate 'staying remarkably stable'
Ireland

HEALTH MINISTER SIMON Harris has said the virus reproductive rate is staying “remarkably stable”, estimated to be between 0.4 and 0.8. The reproductive rate gives an indication of the number of other people who are infected by a positive case. Harris informed the Daíl that he was told by chair of the modelling advisory group Professor Philip Nolan that “we can be confident it remains below one this week”.

The projection site I go to estimates the U.S. rate to be 1.03, and increasing about .01 every few days.

 

[MrX]

I had been afraid that this would happen since the very beginning of the crisis.

The US is losing the ‘discipline’ to fight coronavirus and is ‘leaving the battlefield before the war is over’

I'm still waiting for someone to articulate a viable third solution to what is, was and always will be a binary problem. There are two choices: unsustainable draconian lock downs until the risk of the virus is eradicated, or a return to semi-normal where we live with the risk. Cuomo can point to places like AZ all he wants but what does he think is going to happen in NYC when things reopen?

There was a great observation made on the local sports talk station yesterday where the hosts totally summarized this issue: "Golfers in the U.S. are saying that they are not going to observe "protocols," like staying locked in their rooms when they come back, whereas in the German soccer league you get suspended for going out to buy toothpaste."

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

The projection site I go to estimates the U.S. rate to be 1.03, and increasing about .01 every few days.

That's quite a difference between the US and Ireland then.

 

[ilovewings]

I had been afraid that this would happen since the very beginning of the crisis.

The US is losing the ‘discipline’ to fight coronavirus and is ‘leaving the battlefield before the war is over’

This is what happens with lack of proper leadership---this is a tragedy

 

[SoCalDavidS]

In case you were wondering what would happen if the U.S. experiences another surge. More of the same, of course.

Mnuchin says U.S. can't shut economy even if virus resurges - BNN Bloomberg

That appears to be cheering up the stock market today.

 

[ilovewings]

I had been afraid that this would happen since the very beginning of the crisis.

The US is losing the ‘discipline’ to fight coronavirus and is ‘leaving the battlefield before the war is over’

Part of the problem is the nature of the virus itself: 80% of the population will either have no symptoms or very mild symptoms: 20% of the population includes the elderly and other types of immunosuppressed people. So what has happened is that 80% says, F-- it-- I am going to do what I please: i dont care if i get it because it won't much affect me and if old people get it, so what--- that is the bottom line. If more young people were severely affected they would be more likely to be responsive to guidelines like masks, social distancing, etc. So we can expect that 80% to continue to act like there is no pandemic-- they will spread it to others of course and some of those people will get sick and die, but they don't care

 

[MrX]

That appears to be cheering up the stock market today.

Cheering me, as well!

 

[Sunset]

Timeline of crap told by people (relatives, friends, colleagues) to me during this pandemic.

1. This virus is a hoax. (mid March) They are just adding all dead people/nonexistent people to list of people who died due to corona.
2. It's real but it isn't thaaaaaaaat serious. (End of March)
3. I'm under 40. Nothing will happen to me.
   
4. It's sunny. Nothing will happen to us. (desert area folks)
5. Everyone should come to work... I don't like that people stay at home and work. This virus is just like a flu. (Mid April) (Colleague of said person lost two people to this pandemic)
6. Masks take away my ability to breathe. ( I've never seen them wear it once)
7. An XYZ scientist said that this virus is manmade and we all need to be angry at China.
8. I can't handle my kids at home. They are SPED kids. They need in-person teaching. (End of May)
9. At the rate it is going, we will all get it and we can achieve herd immunity (June)
10. A month ago: I am skipping vaccinations for my child because of this pandemic (hopefully, it was approved by the pediatrician ??). Two days ago: My child has fever but it won't be corona. So I won't get her tested.

This has affected my mental health. I am concerned for them.
I am trying my best to disconnect myself from the outside world.
This pandemic has taught me a lot about the people around me. Some of them, I don't really have a close relationship with. But others, they are my relatives and sometimes I feel my blood boil.

 

[I'm Just Here]

Gotta love ya WS friends! This source of information and support has been so important for us. I have a hard time sorting everything I hear or read, it can truly stress a person out. Never seems to end on the getting information like the mask wearing then it changes. This virus stuff can wreck a person or destroy a relationship. I finally had to let go of some issues my husband and I had on disagreeing as we all learn it takes 2 to fight, someone needs to back down. Never have our spats been so hurtful. This virus destroys in many ways. I do feel like some of us are just living the day to day life route. I am otherwise the thoughts of much more would freak me out. I give myself permission to fear but not fall apart, move on and live doing things differently, slowly enjoying what I feel are low to medium risky activities once again. I know that I am human and I too will not live forever. My heart aches for those of you who are not able to hug some of your loved ones. I have had that taken from me too, I really love my family members whom we are trying to keep safe. I also am curious to know what your feelings on where this virus started? I have a feeling it was a lab, just opinion. Hang in there everyone, we will conquer together!

 

[anneg]

In case you were wondering what would happen if the U.S. experiences another surge. More of the same, of course.

Mnuchin says U.S. can't shut economy even if virus resurges - BNN Bloomberg

That appears to be cheering up the stock market today.

Dow slumps more than 1,000 points as U.S. coronavirus cases rise, after Fed’s grim economic outlook
Published: June 11, 2020 at 11:38 a.m. ET

"U.S. stocks swooned Thursday as coronavirus cases continued to rise and investors digested Wednesday’s downbeat economic outlook from the Federal Reserve.

The market moves came even as the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time declined again in the most recent week...."

Dow slumps more than 1,000 points as U.S. coronavirus cases rise, after Fed’s grim economic outlook

 

[SoCalDavidS]

This has affected my mental health. I am concerned for them.
I am trying my best to disconnect myself from the outside world.
This pandemic has taught me a lot about the people around me. Some of them, I don't really have a close relationship with. But others, they are my relatives and sometimes I feel my blood boil.

Do what you feel is best for yourself and insist the same for those you are living with and around the most. Feel sad and sorry for those who take many precautions, yet still become infected. Hospital staff, grocery store workers, etc.

Let those determined to go about their lives as if nothing is wrong, do their thing. If something happens to them, it happens. Don't let it bother yourself one bit. I feel compassion when someone overdoses, even if they were an addict, because beating an addiction is hard. Taking steps to prevent being infected by this virus is not, and if you want to feel that it's just the flu, and no big deal, then accept the consequences if you end up being wrong.

 

[10ofRods]

I'm still waiting for someone to articulate a viable third solution to what is, was and always will be a binary problem. There are two choices: unsustainable draconian lock downs until the risk of the virus is eradicated, or a return to semi-normal where we live with the risk. Cuomo can point to places like AZ all he wants but what does he think is going to happen in NYC when things reopen?

There was a great observation made on the local sports talk station yesterday where the hosts totally summarized this issue: "Golfers in the U.S. are saying that they are not going to observe "protocols," like staying locked in their rooms when they come back, whereas in the German soccer league you get suspended for going out to buy toothpaste."

Yes, our big mistake was not having firm nationwide protocols.

Where I live, masks are not required for the general public - no matter where they are. Individual businesses can require them, but no one is doing that because there are too many anti-maskers.

If we did just one simple thing, such as require masks for everyone in public places (and face shields at restaurants), the rates would go much lower, until CoVid was mostly or entirely in our rear view window.

As it is, we're having an upswing in more than 20 states, and these upticks will continue to rise either gradually or quickly (the New York Times has good information and visuals; IMHE projections are updated regularly and have been both quite accurate in the past month as well as scary).

Summer will end with us at higher rates of infection, just as school is starting. Israel thought they had a handle on CoVid until the schools opened:

After Reopening Schools, Israel Orders Them To Shut If COVID-19 Cases Are Discovered

There is some good news: death rate is falling all over the world and in the US/UK. Also, while the total case rate is sobering, only a fraction of that group is actively shedding virus at this point. Hospitalizations are done most places (Arizona is definitely facing a crisis).

It does look like total viral load is a key variable in transmitting CV19, so people who work in a setting where first one person is shedding virions (even if only through breathing and talking), then 1 more people is infected, then 2 more - the total amount of virus gets high enough that the workplace becomes a hot spot and everyone is exposed. Since it seems that asymptomatic people do shed virus, along with those who have very mild to mild symptoms, it's easy to see how workplaces spread the virus. Masks. Face shields. Hand washing. Social distancing.

It's possible to control this. It's natural for most people to want to avoid this level of risk - even if they are 20. Most people don't want to harm others, either. Most people don't want to be responsible for the death of a grandparent or parent. But, as we know too well here on WS, there are some people who truly just don't care.

 

[10ofRods]

**My post above should have said "my parents taught me how to stifle a sneeze."

I should add that when I started school in 1960, nearly all children knew to stifle a sneeze (one way we were taught was to press up on the area right under the nose - for me, pressing right on the tip of my nose worked). Today, they aren't taught to do that, but they are supposed to learn the shoulder sneeze.

And yet, I see full grown adults failing to do these things.

The goal of sneezing should be to assist the lungs and nasal area in ridding itself of irritants - but it doesn't have to be a huge intake of breath and the most forceful outflow as possible. Some people actually think this is funny (like the man who got a bargain seat on the airplane, it didn't recline, it was behind mine and so he leaned forward - sneezing - for the entire flight).

That's the only time I got a viral infection in the last 4 years. But I blame myself. I should have been wearing a mask. This was about a year ago.

 

[MrX]

Timeline of crap told by people (relatives, friends, colleagues) to me during this pandemic.

1. This virus is a hoax. (mid March) They are just adding all dead people/nonexistent people to list of people who died due to corona.
2. It's real but it isn't thaaaaaaaat serious. (End of March)
3. I'm under 40. Nothing will happen to me.
   
4. It's sunny. Nothing will happen to us. (desert area folks)
5. Everyone should come to work... I don't like that people stay at home and work. This virus is just like a flu. (Mid April) (Colleague of said person lost two people to this pandemic)
6. Masks take away my ability to breathe. ( I've never seen them wear it once)
7. An XYZ scientist said that this virus is manmade and we all need to be angry at China.
8. I can't handle my kids at home. They are SPED kids. They need in-person teaching. (End of May)
9. At the rate it is going, we will all get it and we can achieve herd immunity (June)
10. A month ago: I am skipping vaccinations for my child because of this pandemic (hopefully, it was approved by the pediatrician ??). Two days ago: My child has fever but it won't be corona. So I won't get her tested.

1. This is really two different things. Some nuts still think it's a hoax. As for the counting of cases, the problem is there is no standard logging method so if someone with Covid dies of something else, do they go on the "Covid Death" list? What about States that count "probable" cases, versus those that don't? Not saying Doctors are lying on death certificates, but in what circumstances does someone with Covid, who dies, not go on the "Covid List?"
2. Arguments can be made that the reaction (destruction of the World's economy) was out of all proportion to the risk of the virus.
3. Statistically true, unless such a person doesn't drive, or engage in any behavior with any risk, whatsoever.
4. I'll give you that one - we did expect hot weather to have an effect.
5. Jobs like that probably don't pay enough to make them worth the risk. On the flip side, it's hard to move goods remotely.
6. Maybe true, maybe an excuse, but it shouldn't affect your choices.
7. "Political" echo chambers seem to have the same effect as brainwashing. Not much you can do about those people except suggest they do a more research and less hating.
8. My wife works in a Middle School. Most parents didn't want to raise their own kids before all of this. The lock down and school closures must be Hell. I know a great, responsible father who works from home - I asked how it is with the wife kids there every day - he said "it ain't easy."
9. Unless there is a cure/vaccine that may be our only hope. Interesting to see if Sweden ends up coming out ahead, when all is said and done.
10. Full circle back to #1 - not much you can do about nut cases.

 

[10ofRods]

Cheering me, as well!

I think that was sarcasm in the OP. Dow is now down 1,100 points on news of increased CoVid cases.

And the Dow is a terrible index of economic well being, anyway. Most people don't have any funds in the stock market.

Dow Jones Futures Plunge 1,100 Points: Covid-19 Second Wave Fear Mount; Coronavirus Stock Market Rally Fizzle

Healthcare and safe haven stocks are doing okay.