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  • #641
Except this is a global issue, and you are addressing it with your local understanding.

Absolutely - so if New Zealand, for example, wants to wrap the entire country in a bubble and revert to the Dark Ages, that's fine. The world is too fragmented to treat anything as a "global" issue.
 
  • #642
Both countries you mention, the US and the UK, still have a rising problem.

What do you mean by this, @Woodland ? Both countries seem to be running at their lowest case and death rates since the end of March.
 
  • #643
Have you got a link for the border controls. Recently (May) a friend I know flew back from S.America to Paris, then overnight stay, train to Germany and UK. Five countries' borders, no checks anywhere.

No American has "one link" about border control. Let's just say that borders with our neighbors are at the least permeable of all my lifetime and that of all of my ancestors. I guess it's a relative thing. For years, you could just go in and out of Canada on many small roads, no problem. Then we jointly built cement ravines and fences in places where they no longer wanted this to happen and rerouted traffic to a few points.

Canada has closed its border with the U.S., last I heard. We have apparently closed our border with them. I think we both allow essential workers, but there's red tape. Family visits too.

Mexico has likewise closed to the U.S. (and so far, has a much lower rate of virus, many factors). And we have closed to them - obviously and have more border patrol than ever before. But there's still significant essential traffic.

At any rate, the vast majority of Americans can only travel among the states, which is why it's a concern at that level.

Arizona actually was quarantining incoming people from certain states (unsupervised though, I think - unlike Hawaii, which of course has the lowest per capita rate in our union - and they will continue to quarantine people - supervised, criminal charges possible - for quite some time to come).

That means, in theory, as a Californian, if AZ has border checks, I can only go to Oregon and Nevada, and then to Washington and Utah/New Mexico beyond.

At this point, for a vacation (camping), I'd feel way happier in New Mexico.
 
  • #644
What is your Ro rate? Ours seems to be between 0.7 and 0.9. The closeness to 1 worries me with shops opening next week. I honestly think it's going to look like Christmas Eve on the high street

I think/hope people will turn up, realise the queues are ridiculous, and head home again. I'll admit I've really missed shopping and desperately need some new clothes for the kids, but I'm going to wait until the craziness has calmed down before I head in. I already feel like the whole experience is going to be so weird it'll traumatise me :D
 
  • #645
What do you mean by this, @Woodland ? Both countries seem to be running at their lowest case and death rates since the end of March.

Yes, they are (and I"ll post the US data below here). Things are getting better. Per capita rates tell a different story than total cases and a drop off in cases

The U.S. is set to overtake the Netherlands in the next week in a contest no one should want to win. UK will hopefully never catch up to Belgium. If we backed New York out of the US statistics, the US wouldn't be on the first page of that chart, but if we back the figures of London out of UK, UK will drop to about the place the US is in.

Still, things are getting better.

Gradually and only for a short time. But let's be grateful for that - and hope that our per capita rates climb very slowly.

Those of us living in states where it's getting worse, conversely, are feeling mopey and depressed. Those of us who fear that when schools reopen, there will be widespread panic when kids get sick (even if it's just 1-2 per school, in the U.S., lots of places the parents are going to be upset, justifiably IMO).
 
  • #646
What do you mean by this, @Woodland ? Both countries seem to be running at their lowest case and death rates since the end of March.

There is a lag. The virus has an incubation period of 1-2 weeks, and then once it starts to spread, it does so more slowly at the start. 1 becomes 2 and 2 becomes 4, and so on...but it does not happen overnight. That is why by the time states began to shut down in March, it was far too late. It took several more weeks, until mid-April, before it reached it's peak.

The goal, as I now see it, is to get everything open as quickly as possible, or even just set a date for opening, so that by the time we see another outbreak in the coming weeks, they can say, "well, we can't shut it down AGAIN!" We'll see, but rest assured, some states will take action if necessary, and others will just let it ride.

I feel like we're getting closer to knowing the way we're trending. Best case scenario IMO, is stability, and no increase in the curve. Once you start increasing the curve again, and along with it the Reproduction Factor, there's no real way of knowing how bad it's going to get, because then you have a virus on the run again.
 
  • #647
I think/hope people will turn up, realise the queues are ridiculous, and head home again. I'll admit I've really missed shopping and desperately need some new clothes for the kids, but I'm going to wait until the craziness has calmed down before I head in. I already feel like the whole experience is going to be so weird it'll traumatise me :D
I didnt think I missed it but realising that I only really go the the supermarket once a week (and the vet this week) was quite sobering. How it must be for people shielding I do not know.

I had MacDonalds tonight. I cant remember the last time, but would guess 2 or 3 years ago. Son went out to the local drive thro that opened and I asked him to bring me something back. Its the weird feeling, you couldnt have something, now you can so you do. Shops will be mobbed.
 
  • #648
My youngest is in high school so I am paying close attention to how they plan to manage the schools reopening in fall.

Where I live, the two main high schools have 3,600 students each and about 400 staff. So if we opened today, each school would have 4 active CV shedders at each. More, if you add recently symptomatic who think they're "over it" (we lack a real understanding of when the virus stops being shed - but by convention, it's roughly 14 days after the fever ends and "we don't know" days when there's no fever).

I keep thinking about this (as a grandparent, which is a bias, of course).

What will parents do? My granddaughters go to a school with 600 students and 100 staff. So, once a week, someone would be predicted to have the virus.

Since nearly everywhere closed schools before the virus had had a chance to get to a very high rate of transmission, we don't know what will happen.

If it were me I guess I'd wait till the last minute, but have a plan. For me, the key thing is going to be whether rates are going up or down. Then, I wouldn't let a kid ride the bus or walk in large groups with others to school. I'd encourage the kids to wear masks inside the classroom if age appropriate. I'd want the teacher to give them all hand washing breaks in small groups (classrooms here no longer have sinks in them since we eradicated measles and whooping cough). I'd want them to each lunch in shifts, using outdoors if at all possible. I wouldn't send my child to school on a rainy day. IOW, I'd try to increase the odds in my child's favor - but if the rate is too high, I wouldn't send my child at all.
 
  • #649
That certainly is one reason for the lockdown, but not the only one. Had the lockdowns been successful, we could have eradicated the virus and thereby protected developing countries. Another big part of the reason for the lockdown was to prevent deaths by keeping people apart from one another until we had a vaccine or a treatment could be found. Preventing deaths is still the main reason we open up in stages.
Unfortunately locking down couldn't eradicate as it was already in the community as early as November in some cases in the UK. I believe they are coming to a similar conclusion in the states too, but maybe not quite so early, but J