Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #61

[jjenny]

Woah. This has taken how long to come out?

I've seen that before.

 

[tresir2012]

I've seen that before.

It says it's new analysis and is dated 14 June.

ETA

I googled and found this March report quoting similar. Is this what you saw?

CT spots COVID-19 lung abnormalities in Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers

So it's not "new" analysis but 3 months old.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

This headline made me LOL - towels and egg cups - WTF Britain? WHY??!?!

Queuing for Britain: Thousands wait for TWO HOURS in mile-long lines outside Sports Direct, Primark and John Lewis as shops see 51% surge in customers - with towels and egg cups most highly-prized purchases

Coronavirus UK: Shops reopen for first time in three months | Daily Mail Online

 

[Bravo]

I would love to know the answer to this as well. I ask everyone I know if they personally know anyone who has had the virus. The answer is always no.

I believe the threat is increasing and have begun to wear a plastic face shield over my mask. Much safer.

I was exposed to 5 people back in March thru work. I am shocked I didn't get it. I catch everything I am around it seems. My contact was minimal with longest being 3 hrs. I think what helped was all the great posters here who churned out such excellent info early in. I was keeping my distance, using paper towels to open doors, washing my hands Mach 90, sanitizing and when I had to use a shared computer I wore gloves, cut my nails down. My Nephew in Toronto had it but I had no recent contact. I think if I had prolonged and repeated exposure to the 5 I would not have avoided it. Your doing the right thing. Keep on. This thing is a beast.

 

[10ofRods]

Woah. This has taken how long to come out?

It was in pre-print for a month. Academic journals don't just publish things immediately. Often, it takes 3 months to get the peer review - but in this case, they have a special focus on getting important CoVid info to doctors.

First, they had to allow the patients to go home, and then they had to get cooperation from Princess Cruise Lines to do this study. Then they had to find people willing to participate.

What's interesting about this type of study, IME, is that many people who've been through the trauma of being on a ship with CoVid patients are anxious to get antibody tests (for free) and to get MRI's (for free). So they found a bunch of people, but then had to fly to where ever they were, make medical contacts in that place, get the person's treating physician to okay the tests (researchers never just walk up to someone's front door, that's unethical) and then...do the tests.

Under normal circumstances, that would take 6 months to a year. In an infectious disease situation, I'm surprised it's been done this quickly at all - but once under way (say by April 1), it took until June 3 (with all of the peer review taking place by about May 3). So it was very very rapid. The fact that some newspaper even found it and published it 11 days later is also quick.

I suspect there will be way, way more of this type of research in the next year.

Medical forums were already discussing it, but doctors whose hands are full treating CoVid (and every other disease that comes next) do not have time to do these studies. These are done by research specialists who know the statistical models and protocols to use (starting with ethically finding and informing patients). People do *not* like finding out there's something wrong with their body - half of people asked if they want free testing for, say, a genetic condition that could affect them later in life - say "Nope, rather not know."

 

[10ofRods]

It says it's new analysis and is dated 14 June.

ETA

I googled and found this March report quoting similar. Is this what you saw?

So it's not "new" analysis but 3 months old.

It was only published on June 2. The pre-print has not been out for 3 months, but for about 6 weeks. The article was firmed up and finalized during May.

 

[Bravo]

My City is down to 4 active cases and no current in Hospital. Probably wont stay that way with summer and reopening. I had a hair appt. today. I was comfortable. Girl who applies color was masked and face shield. Chair wiped down. Tear away gowns to put on. My Hair guy also masked and face shield. I was masked. Hand sanitizer supplied. They ask you 3 Covid questions when you enter. Then my crazy hair guy standing 6 ft. away says bend over. He had a thermometer that was about 5 ft. long. Crazy loon. Now I remember what I use to look like. He said he has had calls from Toronto begging him to cut their hair. Huge NO and stay in Toronto. We want no part of your mess.

 

[10ofRods]

How many confirmed cases are there in your area?

From todays UK briefing.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, known as Sage, believes the R number across the whole of the UK is currently between 0.7 and 0.9.

The government says the R number is between 0.8 and 1.0 in most English regions - but between 0.8 and 1.1 in the South West.

The estimate for Scotland is between 0.6 and 0.8. In Northern Ireland, it is between 0.5 and 0.9, while it is between 0.7 and 1.0 in Wales.

The government has said that the R number is one of the most important factors in deciding when lockdown measures can be eased.

That's very good news (except for the Southwest - but they can get there).

R0 where I live just jumped above 1, due to reopening (we had had a very low rate, so, I guess that's to be expected). But UK should in fact be heaving a sigh of relief (unless reopening makes that graph move to the right).

 

[Gardener1850]

Researcher: Asymptomatic Coronavirus Patients Can Still Face Organ Damage

(SCARY!!)

Researcher: Asymptomatic Coronavirus Patients Can Still Face Organ Damage
Sunday, June 14, 2020

"People can go through a whole infection and not know it at all," he said.

"But the other thing that we uncovered that was a surprise to us, and I don't think most people know this, is that even though you don't have symptoms, which is silent enough as it is, there's another level of silence, which is you can have internal organ damage and not know it."

One study looked at CT scans conducted on individuals aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship. In that case, 54% of 76 asymptomatic individuals showed significant subclinical lung abnormalities.

BBM & SBM

I wonder if this explains what is happening with some children? Perhaps they have asymptomatic cases but the virus still damages their organs leading to hospitalization with mysterious symptoms later on as their little bodies continue to fight to overcome the damage done by the invisible infection?

So scary!



MOO

 

[10ofRods]

I know that CDC isolation recommendations are as follows:

“Recommendation: For persons recovered from COVID-19 illness, CDC recommends that isolation be maintained for at least 10 days after illness onset and at least 3 days (72 hours) after recovery. Illness onset is defined as the date symptoms begin.

Recovery is defined as resolution of fever without the use of fever-reducing medications with progressive improvement or resolution of other symptoms. Ideally, isolation should be maintained for this full period to the extent that it is practicable under rapidly changing circumstances.

Communities, Schools, Workplaces, & Events.

In that case, 1.3 Americans are still febrile or only 3 days past having a fever. I find that hard to believe. I do not think that's the metric being used by actual hospitals and doctors.

Of course, there are ton of people lost to follow-up which I guess they could be in "CoVid limbo" indefinitely.

Or maybe it's the "resolution of other symptoms." On forums for people who are positive for CoVid, it's not uncommon for people 60-70 days out to still have symptoms (and now that the symptoms include virtually every common symptom of almost any part of the body, we shall see how long that goes).

If people are really supposed to wait until all symptoms have resolved (including the nagging cough that so many have or the painful skin sensations), then we've got a lot of still-active CoVid people out running around in the world, back at work.

Hopefully some day, we'll have enough research done to show that many of these people are not transmitting.

 

[10ofRods]

I cant get ANYONE at work to wear a mask its the rudest and stupidest thing ever , our techs go in and out of all the major hospitals but the company president says " Trump does not wear one , so we aren't "

Yet he did, when he visited that factory, he just took it off for photos.

What a crazy quilt this thing is.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

That's very good news (except for the Southwest - but they can get there).

R0 where I live just jumped above 1, due to reopening (we had had a very low rate, so, I guess that's to be expected). But UK should in fact be heaving a sigh of relief (unless reopening makes that graph move to the right).

It's bound to go up slightly though, isn't it? Our shops reopened today after 3 months, and guidelines about meeting others are relaxing. I'm keeping such a close eye on the death rate (which has been horrific, as you know) and while the numbers seem really encouraging right now I am really concerned about a spike. I will cry.

I've been watching Italy like a hawk because they are pretty close to us in terms of size, population and density, and they've been in the 50-100ish deaths per day bracket for 3 or 4 weeks now. I think the UK will probably follow that pattern as we have been a couple of weeks behind them from day dot.

Although..... like the US, and you will be more au fait with the stats than I am, a huge proportion of deaths have been in care homes. As the elderly are not the demographic going shopping and to school/work, I hope the younger generations can keep a lid on it, or at least get through the virus quietly at home.

 

[10ofRods]

Disposable masks are being sold currently online at Amazon and I've seen them in Walmart near the pharmacy. They've been running around $22-25 for 50.

That works for those of us who plan. In the community where I teach, 15% of people do not have a data plan or internet at home. And large numbers of people simply won't think to do it.

They should be handed out, free, for each store. Surgical masks are about 70% effective, and if everyone wore then in grocery stores and waiting rooms, we'd see a nice decline in positive cases.

If people would wear them - it's now highly political where I live, to the point that some younger people tell me they are afraid to wear the masks, because people approach, get in their faces, yell at them or even cough on them.

 

[10ofRods]

It's bound to go up slightly though, isn't it? Our shops reopened today after 3 months, and guidelines about meeting others are relaxing. I'm keeping such a close eye on the death rate (which has been horrific, as you know) and while the numbers seem really encouraging right now I am really concerned about a spike. I will cry.

I've been watching Italy like a hawk because they are pretty close to us in terms of size, population and density, and they've been in the 50-100ish deaths per day bracket for 3 or 4 weeks now. I think the UK will probably follow that pattern as we have been a couple of weeks behind them from day dot.

Although..... like the US, and you will be more au fait with the stats than I am, a huge proportion of deaths have been in care homes. As the elderly are not the demographic going shopping and to school/work, I hope the younger generations can keep a lid on it, or at least get through the virus quietly at home.

Yes, it is bound to go up. So right now is probably the worst time of the pandemic (the reopening). Sit tight, oh ye vulnerable ones (and please, please learn as much as possible about what the vulnerabilities are). In six months of heightened rates (hopefully at a plateau), many more people will have at least temporary immunity.

Unfortunately, those places with cold, dry weather will see a winter bump-up, perhaps making what we've just been through look like child's play.

Warmer, more humid climates (with greater access to the outdoors and more outdoor funerals/weddings/gatherings) will see less of a bump-up.

Places without food production plants, manufacturing, old people's homes, stadium sports will also be safer.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

Yes, it is bound to go up. So right now is probably the worst time of the pandemic (the reopening). Sit tight, oh ye vulnerable ones (and please, please learn as much as possible about what the vulnerabilities are). In six months of heightened rates (hopefully at a plateau), many more people will have at least temporary immunity.

Unfortunately, those places with cold, dry weather will see a winter bump-up, perhaps making what we've just been through look like child's play.

Warmer, more humid climates (with greater access to the outdoors and more outdoor funerals/weddings/gatherings) will see less of a bump-up.

Places without food production plants, manufacturing, old people's homes, stadium sports will also be safer.

We have a large amount of care homes here, it will be very interesting to see the detailed stats when they're ready, the proper/final ones! I believe sending all the oldies back into carehomes from hospital when this all started, was our biggest mistake. That, and continuing to allow literally thousands of flights to land here for far too long.

It is no coincidence that in Europe it is generally the more wealthier and more travel-y nations who have been hit hardest. Millions of northern Europeans flitting about through hub airports, and the February school break during which thousands go skiing in Italy/France. Heathrow has well over 1000 flights per day - straight off the plane and onto public transport, no wonder London got battered. Same applies in the US of course - your busiest airport cities seem to have kickstarted things and taken the biggest hit.

 

[Bravo]

Which is why I went today for colour/cut. When I see an uptick I wont be going.

 

[jjenny]

Which is why I went today for colour/cut. When I see an uptick I wont be going.

How did you keep your mask on? My hair is looking a little wild but how does one keep a mask on during a haircut?

 

[tresir2012]

We have a large amount of care homes here, it will be very interesting to see the detailed stats when they're ready, the proper/final ones! I believe sending all the oldies back into carehomes from hospital when this all started, was our biggest mistake. That, and continuing to allow literally thousands of flights to land here for far too long.

It is no coincidence that in Europe it is generally the more wealthier and more travel-y nations who have been hit hardest. Millions of northern Europeans flitting about through hub airports, and the February school break during which thousands go skiing in Italy/France. Heathrow has well over 1000 flights per day - straight off the plane and onto public transport, no wonder London got battered. Same applies in the US of course - your busiest airport cities seem to have kickstarted things and taken the biggest hit.

Did you notice the BBC reported the 41k figure today but also had the " ONS death certificates with CV19 on them" 50k figure posted with it too? I think they are preparing us for that as a final figure. I think the difference is likely to be deaths in the home. MOO

ETA from my prior link

The latest numbers from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which counts death certificates mentioning the virus, suggests there had been more than 50,000 deaths by 29 May.

When looking at deaths over and above the expected number for this time of year, the toll rises to more than 63,700 by the same date.

Some of these deaths are likely to include people with undiagnosed coronavirus or those who died as an indirect result of the pandemic.

Coronavirus accounted for about 18% of all deaths in the UK in the week to 29 May, according to death registration data - a drop from 21% the previous week.

In the week to 17 April, when deaths from the virus reached their peak, this figure was just under 40%.

• Your tributes to those who have died

Find out how the pandemic has affected your area and how it compares with the national average:


How many cases and deaths in your area?
Enter a UK postcode, English, Welsh or Northern Irish council name, or Scottish health board name to find out

Type in 3 or more characters for results.

If you can't see the look-up click here.

Downward trend in daily deaths continues
The new coronavirus, which causes the disease Covid-19, was first confirmed in the UK at the end of January, but the number of daily confirmed cases and related deaths only began to increase significantly by the second half of March.

The UK has the highest official death toll in Europe and the third highest in the world, after the US and Brazil. However, the government and many experts say it is too soon to make international comparisons.

On Monday, the government announced a further 38 deaths.

The majority of the UK's deaths have been in England, with 37,299 so far - about 90% of the total for the UK.

On Monday no new deaths were reported in Scotland or Northern Ireland.

In Scotland, the official government figure for deaths remains 2,448, but data on death registrations from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) suggests it had reached nearly 4,000 by 7 June.

In Wales, the death toll stands at 1,448 while in Northern Ireland it remains 541.

• Coronavirus in Scotland: Key figures and trends
• What do the stats tell us in Wales?

Last week's figures from the ONS show the overall death total in the UK for the week to 29 May fell again, nearing the normal range for the time of year.

ETA I recommend clicking on the tribute link above to hear about some of the many that have died. I must commend the BBC for the work they have done with their CV19 info.

 

[Bravo]

How did you keep your mask on? My hair is looking a little wild but how does one keep a mask on during a haircut?

I guess it depends on your style of cut. He just worked around it and mine was easy. I guess the only way I can describe mine is intricate with many layers and angles. If that makes any sense.

 

[justbeachy]

How did you keep your mask on? My hair is looking a little wild but how does one keep a mask on during a haircut?

I had mine cut/colored and it was no issue at all to keep it on. The only thing that happened was that the ear loops to my mask got color on them, but now my mask blends in better.

Edited for typo.