Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #61

[SoCalDavidS]

Wow. I wonder if people queue that long for a Springsteen concert?

In Europe they do. They started doing a random lottery for the Pit years ago in the U.S., so people don't really line up here as much anymore.

 

[The Night Watchman]

Perhaps it is because young people are congregating in large crowds in bars and restaurants---

Just returned from a fishing trip to Siesta Key. Restaurants were packed, 99% unmasked. Shoulder to shoulder at the bar.

Keep in mind, FLA has a case and death rate per capita that is 10x lower than the Northeast. IMO, it is better that young and healthy people get infected in the summer where there will be lower R0 due to the warm weather. Health care is better prepared now. Nursing homes are locked down. With a low infection rate now, it will be harder to deal with in a second wave in the fall, where it is very unlikely the country will be willing to lock down again. Essentially, infections during the summer are a pre-emptive flattening of the second wave, IMO.

Keep in mind, there were mask-less obese seniors out as well. They are apparently OK with the country locked down and millions permanently unemployed for their protection. But don't take away their Early Bird Special.

 

[ilovewings]

Just returned from a fishing trip to Siesta Key. Restaurants were packed, 99% unmasked. Shoulder to shoulder at the bar.

View attachment 251747

Keep in mind, FLA has a case and death rate per capita that is 10x lower than the Northeast. IMO, it is better that young and healthy people get infected in the summer where there will be lower R0 due to the warm weather. Health care is better prepared now. Nursing homes are locked down. With a low infection rate now, it will be harder to deal with in a second wave in the fall, where it is very unlikely the country will be willing to lock down again. Essentially, infections during the summer are a pre-emptive flattening of the second wave, IMO.

Keep in mind, there were mask-less obese seniors out as well. They are apparently OK with the country locked down and millions permanently unemployed for their protection. But don't take away their Early Bird Special.

"early bird special"- that made me laugh- don't get between a senior and the EBS!!!!

 

[10ofRods]

Apologies in advance. I have dropped back in. Sorry.

Where are we now? The CDC has stated the mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first month of the epidemic was 0.27%. When nursing homes homes were overrun by the virus. Nursing home deaths have accounted for over 50% of the 120,000 deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19. But they are not being overrun now. The current mortality rate of COVID-19 is likely now close to the flu at 0.1%, and we will hear about this soon, IMO. If not, call me out on it.

The chance of 0-24 year old person dying of COVID-19 is lower than than the chance of dying in a car crash in their lifetime. Not 10x lower, not 100x lower, not 1000x lower, 3400x lower based on CDC data and the National Safety Council.

3400x.

46 million people out of work.

What are we doing? I am posting a summary that I made to more receptive audience. I do not mean to be disrespectful to your fears, but I hope to provide prospective. And I believe we have been led down a subservient path that I have never seen in my lifetime.

Before my post, a brief synopsis of a section of George Orwell's Animal Farm, which I believe is prophetic.

George Orwell uses the sheep to display how important it was for those in the position of power to ensure that their message would consolidate their own power. The sheep do not have any individuality. They lack names and simply bleat in unison. They are heard on cue from Squealer. Agreement is not necessary in this setting where adherence is the most important element. In repeating the chant of "Two Legs Good, Four Legs Bad," the sheep operate as reminders of Animalism, the philosophy that put the pigs in power. They bleat as a way to emphasize that the leadership of the pigs is in the best interest of all the farm animals.

Over time, the power of the pigs grows. They eventually learn to walk on two legs, mirroring the humans that used to control the farm before the revolution. Teaching the sheep the new chant of "Four Legs Good, Two Legs Better" is another reminder of how the sheep are used to consolidate the pig power over the farm. Once again, the sheep do not question anything they are taught. Their chanting drowns out any other voices.

******

If you are reading this, you are not dead of COVID-19. Good for you. However, I have some bad news, you will die someday. What will you die of?

The current death toll of coronavirus in the U.S. is at 119,000, a seemingly big number. In a country of 330 million people, this is 0.036% of the population dead of COVID-19. Average age is around 80.

Forbes published a list of causes of death, and the chance in percentages that you will die of specific events. The media and politician’s agenda repeatedly tells us that we are at perilous risk of dying of COVID-19. "Flattening the curve" to prevent healthcare overrun has been mysteriously transformed into save every life- at any collateral cost. Stay shut down.

We seemed to have gone along with it, bleating- “Four legs good, two legs better.” The media and the political machine behind the media, are abusing information and using their power to control the masses and spread their message. People were initially scared into flattening the curve, but the curve has been flattened and the virus has been shown to be far less deadly than previously stated. Dissenting opinion on the lockdown measures are drowned out by the sheep- and certainly not allowed on television or in print.

In the list attached, I have added in the chance of dying in the U.S. from coronavirus from March until today- outside of being in a nursing home, to the Forbes data. This may roughly represent your chance of dying of COVID-19 going forward through the rest of 2020, until there is a vaccine. Age demographics from Wikipedia, and COVID-19 death data from the CDC.

The data shows that for Americans that are not in nursing homes, there is a-

5x higher chance of drowning or dying in a fire than of COVID-19
45x higher chance of dying of poisoning than of COVID-19
67x higher chance of dying in a car crash than of COVID-19

The chances of your child aged 0-24 dying at some point in their life from a car crash is 3400x higher than them dying of COVID-19.

Should we stop swimming, and drive less? No, because we accept the inherent risks of life.

Should we keep children out of school and close colleges? Of course not, but it appears likely.

At this point we know that vulnerable people need to lockdown, and not businesses, schools, and working Americans. A temporary lockdown was needed in the populated areas of the northeast, but the curve was flattened long ago.

Open up now. Spread the word. Be the shepherd.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tombarlow/2011/05/10/the-odds-on-how-you-will-die/#1377bfa71be7

View attachment 251705

You've been gone, so I'll add a few counter points to what you've just said. First of all, almost everywhere is opening up and if your argument is aimed at, say, Hawaii, I'd say you should definitely study that situation more.

So we are opening up, no need to try and convince us to open up. I certainly am in favor of opening up, although I can guarantee you that polls say that 80% of Americans are still hesitant about going into restaurants, bars, malls, theaters, etc. You can't *make* people go out. And in most places, grocery stores still have one way aisles (you left out that many of the non-nursing home population who have CoVid - and have died of it - are in particular occupations; people in those occupations are not so keen on going back to work).

40% of Americans say they will not being going to any unnecessary public places or events any time soon - or until our rates are brought in line with other nations (let's say Spain or France). So your dream of "getting back to normal" runs into an immediate road block and much of our discussion here has been on that topic.

But there's more.

There's some pretty good evidence that even the non-symptomatic CoVid patients suffer some lasting consequences (GGO's) to their lungs. This is not good. That's not the flu. Average hospitalization for Covid is between 20 and 30 days - this is enormously expensive and a strain on the healthcare system. As soon as a hospital gets enough CoVid patients to overflow one ward, they have to start canceling various kinds of surgeries and treatments. Not good.

So you would certainly agree, I hope, that we should try not to get higher rates? And that if ALL of us got CoVid, and .1% died - that would be 330,000 dead, and (subtracting under 20's who do not seem to be getting the lung damage), as many as 30,000,000 with longterm consequences, including serious consequences such as a tendency to meningitis or encephalitis or lung and cardiac damage that scientists fear will increase mortality from flu to 1%.

This isn't taking place in a vacuum. We're seeing proportionate risings in the 20-40 age group dying from CoVid (since the nursing home patients aren't). We're seeing people be on ventilators for 30 or 60 days. People with a million dollar healthcare bill at the end.

So let's open up and see how we do - is my perspective. For those of us who actually are vulnerable (20% of Americans have at least one underlying condition - fewer among the 20-somethings, but the obese somethings are at an all time high and they are vulnerable; people of color are more vulnerable due to the Vitamin D issue and some other conditions that I have discussed a few times.

You didn't factor in any changes to that .1% due to hospital overload and unavailability of medicare care, since also among the group that has died are many doctors, nurses and respiratory techs. It's great if hospitals can deploy all the doctors who can't work right now (anesthesiologists aren't getting as much work, radiologists aren't getting as much work) as respiratory techs but even hospitals who do that are running out of personnel throughout Florida and in Houston. It's just their problem, right?

Sure - open up. But we need planning and funding to make this happen so that 300,000 don't die of CoVid and next year's flu season doesn't take out an addition 1-3 million people! In one prison, where 1000 prisoners all got CoVid, 96% were asymptomatic and half of those had serious lung damage (IIRC it was higher than half, but I already posted it, it can be found by googling).

Do children get this lung damage? We don't know. We won't know until the phase where we open the schools. Israeli data should be coming soon (they've closed many schools again after 170 positive cases at one school just a week or so after opening). Would you send your child to school in that circumstance? Many people would not.

So we'll open up, but part of K-12 education will surely be online (not optimal), all the major universities are m mostly moving online (especially the ones with medical programs where all of what I just wrote is well known, plus they have real expertise at the helm). Colleges are still pondering how to even train nurses (most university medical programs will be functioning as usual, AFAIK - the young medical students might as well get used to the risks of their profession - but the college towns have ever reason to want to keep their hospitals from being overwhelmed).

Open up to save business, right? Well, business is going to be affected anyway - possibly for the next couple of years, since we have not done the other thing, which is to contain CoVid and bring it down to such statistically low rates that even if there are hotspots, they can easily be put out by contact tracing (which we are not doing in any effective way - or at all, in many places).

Retail spending is way down. People somehow decided they didn't want, need or could afford to buy. The unemployed are not all going to get their jobs back, people who barely got their foot on the ladder of a job or career are going to be the most affected.

Just as medicine struggles to cope with CoVid and next year's flu situation (and the comorbidity that CoVid will bring to cancer patients, immune compromised people, people with certain genetic conditions, diabetics, etc) and the lung damage issue (we all hope it's temporary - but general studies on GGO show that they only resolve in 15% of cases), we also need to struggle to find a new working economic model that doesn't require this kind of tailspin. This is unlikely to be the last pandemic, it just happens to be one that will exacerbate flu and other diseases next year and the year after (and if we going to continue to have .1% of the population die as they get older, for years to come).

We don't even know how long immunity lasts. We will soon find out. Some people with CoVid feel they have gotten better, then gotten sick again. We're getting better at managing the disease, but we could be much, much better. Healthcare professionals are rethinking their careers and the risks to their families, as well.

Let's reopen, but do not make it sound like this was no big deal and everything is going to go well. If you're going to urge reopening more quickly than what we are doing (are you? can't tell), then please provide solutions to some of these problems. How do we reopen schools, for example? You think parents are okay with getting CoVid from their own kids and being too sick to care for said kids? 1 in 1000 parents die, in your model.

I think we can get that mortality rate lower, but that is going to take a major research budget.

Anyway, everyone, get your flu shots when you can, and hope that next year's flu shot batch is one of those that correctly anticipates the strains, because CoVid + flu is going to be a nightmare.

If the mortality rate is from CoVid is, instead of .1% more like .3% (which is a possibility - we just don't know, we've been protecting many people from getting it, including vulnerable older people like judges, and all those who work by Zoom), what then? The mere fact that many people may find ways to work from home means less business for restaurants, fewer daily business lunches, downturn in all manner of clothing and related sales, etc.

So the retail and hospitality world will be reshaped. How many conventions do you think people will decide to plan? What kinds of programs do we have to rebalance an economy that is now going to need more long term care workers, way more nurses, way more respiratory techs, contact tracers, public health educators, and most especially, more ER and infectious disease doctors? We could also use lab techs, PCR manufacturers, PPE manufacturers (hospitals are still reusing masks!). When is that happening? Why are we just reopening the same businesses as before, when in fact, those businesses are probably going to need life support to stay open? Where do all the people in those occupations go for work? Amazon, Costco, warehouses everywhere - are hiring. UPS and FedEx are hiring. But restaurants, retail and much else won't be.

We need to pivot, as well as reopen and I don't see that happening at all for the next year. We haven't even talked about it nationally and only a few areas have training programs that could address these new needs and retrain all those unemployed people. If they can in fact be retrained from a busboy to a contact tracer.

I'll keep you posted, because next week, I start two online classes that are pre-reqs to getting a job as a lab tech, contact tracer, public health inspector (entry level). Most of the students are in families where one or both parents are laid off and not in the front lines of being rehired (retail, restaurant work, daycare centers, schools).

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: UK-wide infections fall by up to 4% a day - but could be rising in London

Coronavirus infections are falling across the UK by between 2% and 4% a day, according to new government figures.

The figures, which show how quickly the number of COVID-19 infections are changing day-by-day, have been published for the first time.

It comes after the government announced it has dropped the COVID-19 alert level for the UK from four to three, suggesting transmission of the virus is no longer high or spreading at an exponential rate.

The UK's coronavirus reproduction rate - known as the R number - remains unchanged at 0.7 to 0.9, meeting the government's target of keeping it below 1.0.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: Chinese officials say latest outbreak in Beijing 'is a European strain'

The recent outbreak of coronavirus in Beijing has been reported to be a European strain, according to Chinese officials who have released information about its genome sequence.

Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) official Zhang Yong revealed the early research data in an article published by the country's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.

"According to preliminary genomic and epidemiological study results, the virus is from Europe, but is different from the virus currently spreading in Europe," he said.

"It's older than the virus currently spreading in Europe."

 

[Trino]

So we are opening up, no need to try and convince us to open up. I certainly am in favor of opening up, although I can guarantee you that polls say that 80% of Americans are still hesitant about going into restaurants, bars, malls, theaters, etc. You can't *make* people go out. And in most places, grocery stores still have one way aisles (you left out that many of the non-nursing home population who have CoVid - and have died of it - are in particular occupations; people in those occupations are not so keen on going back to work).

Snipped. Hope you don't mind.
Honestly, I am very concerned about restaurants and public places no matter that we are opening up and precautions are being taken. Example: Phoenix and restaurants. Impossible to know how many restaurants have COVID-19. Interesting story.
It's impossible to know how many Arizona restaurants have positive COVID cases. Here's why
Casinos and bars in Phoenix are closing again. Another story.
Restaurants and Bars in the Phoenix Area Are Beginning to Close Due to COVID-19 ... Again

While I realize it's an economic thing, I also realize it's possibly my life. No. You cannot make people go out.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: Pub chain says it 'cannot wait for the government' and will reopen on 4 July

The boss of a pub chain has said he will be reopening all of its venues on 4 July because delaying the move would put jobs at risk.

Peter Borg-Neal, founder and chief executive of Oakman Inns, said he plans to open all 28 of his pubs across the South East and the Midlands.


The government's roadmap out of the coronavirus lockdown says pubs, hairdressers and beauty salons will only be able to open from that date at the very earliest, providing conditions are met.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Hairdressers re-opening, larger gatherings allowed: Taoiseach set to announce latest roadmap revamp

Ireland

THE GOVERNMENT IS expected to make an announcement this evening that hairdressers and barbers can reopen from 29 June – three weeks earlier than the pandemic recovery roadmap stated.

The latest revamp of the roadmap should also see guidelines on indoor and outdoor gatherings changed to allow for larger groups to meet up.

It’s expected groups of 50 will be allowed indoors from the end of this month, with that number set to rise from 20 July.

Tonight’s announcement should provide clarity over the numbers allowed at weddings in the coming months.

The re-opening of gyms and other indoor facilities is also being discussed today – and it’s expected they will also be allowed to re-open once social distancing and hygiene protocols are brought in.

Cabinet is expected to sign off on the decisions this afternoon, following recommendations from NPHET.

A press briefing, headed up by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar along with various senior ministers, is set to take place early this evening.

 

[10ofRods]

This may have already been posted, but it's about the real fatigue that doctors are feeling:

Opinion | I’m a Critical Care Doctor. I’m Tired, I’m Mourning, I’m Bracing for More.

Personally, I want the best for our medical personnel. I hate that some of them have had to act as orderlies because the regular pool of workers was sick, quarantined and not able to come back.

So let's hire more help within the medical sector. (Unfortunately, there's no big rush to take hospital jobs right now).

Just returned from a fishing trip to Siesta Key. Restaurants were packed, 99% unmasked. Shoulder to shoulder at the bar.

View attachment 251747

Keep in mind, FLA has a case and death rate per capita that is 10x lower than the Northeast. IMO, it is better that young and healthy people get infected in the summer where there will be lower R0 due to the warm weather. Health care is better prepared now. Nursing homes are locked down. With a low infection rate now, it will be harder to deal with in a second wave in the fall, where it is very unlikely the country will be willing to lock down again. Essentially, infections during the summer are a pre-emptive flattening of the second wave, IMO.

Keep in mind, there were mask-less obese seniors out as well. They are apparently OK with the country locked down and millions permanently unemployed for their protection. But don't take away their Early Bird Special.

I agree with you. It's best that the younger people get it now. Let's find out what their real risks are while we still have empty hospital beds.

We *never* had a lock down. We've made some businesses closed, most places have not required people to stay home unless they wear a mask, we haven't asked home-leavers to say where they are going, nor have we kept people out of parks, plazas, most beaches, etc. That's probably why we're where we are now.

We had a shelter order - or advice. Some places only advised social distancing, didn't require it.

A few obese seniors in Florida do not stand for all of us seniors throughout the world, btw. There's stupid everywhere and some people are simply by nature risk takers. So what we'll see is that the public will be differently composed (more risk takers out in public, fewer seniors; this type of public situation is quite different from when we all go out in equal numbers). If you've traveled much, you can sense the changes in large crowds when the older people stay home; then if the cautious leave and only the risk takers remain, it's quite a different scene. UK LE have both spoken out about this.

It's still very sad for those of us whose younger family members are now permanently separated from us, unless and until they get CoVid (which I do not want them to do, I do not think getting CoVid at 35 is a walk in the park, nor at 20 - half of them will be quite ill). Most of them have never had a super serious illness, never been in a hospital, aren't going to like it and probably can't pay for it. Most younger people are mentally unprepared for the many adult medical decisions they'll have to make, for being quarantined inside a hospital, for being in a hospital for 2-4 weeks, etc. The other half will manage their illnesses at home - so the families I see struggling to cope with a CoVid positive 25 year old are having a difficult time. In one family I know, 11 people live in two houses immediately adjacent to each other, 9 have CoVid. 2 are in hospital.

It's been interesting reading the histories and complaints of younger people (you can find them on reddit, there's a whole subreddit for CoronaVirus positive people). The scary thing is that the asymptomatic may not be developing adequate antibodies...jury still out.

 

[MsArk]

So there lining up on Thursday for a Saturday rally

I will have to post this as MOO bc I can’t find the link but I read a new report yesterday that the 1st person in line has been there since Monday!

 

[10ofRods]

Snipped. Hope you don't mind.
Honestly, I am very concerned about restaurants and public places no matter that we are opening up and precautions are being taken. Example: Phoenix and restaurants. Impossible to know how many restaurants have COVID-19. Interesting story.
It's impossible to know how many Arizona restaurants have positive COVID cases. Here's why
Casinos and bars in Phoenix are closing again. Another story.
Restaurants and Bars in the Phoenix Area Are Beginning to Close Due to COVID-19 ... Again

While I realize it's an economic thing, I also realize it's possibly my life. No. You cannot make people go out.

Heck, how could I mind snippng?? My posts are often so long.

Yep, I share your concern. And interestingly, so does every young person in my family. The nurses in the family are already pretty tired facing the risks all day long, so nope to eating out for them. Their family members want to protect the nurses and our one doctor as much as possible, so nope to eating out for them. The unemployed chef is petrified about going back (he's 29), he's the most likely person to get it in our family. We are not all full Europeans, either. Some of us have a gene that causes CoVid to have a more severe course (APOE-4).

No one at my work, whether faculty or staff, is going back to a restaurant. "Heck no" is the response - and not to retail either. If only everyone would wear masks in public (yay - California's going to try to do that) and ate only at outdoor tables, the risk would be so lessened.

And yet...many places are going to open the schools in August. I plan to go back to a more strict sheltering policy when that happens, as it will take a couple of months for that part of the local epidemic to burn out. And of course, all the kids will have their school lives constantly disrupted (or they'll just go back to online school, which sucks - our system is already so...inadequate).

 

[doublestop]

They also have ethical responsibility not to exploit a crisis situation, just to get some more publicity for themselves. JMO

You are assigning motive that may not be there. It could just as easily be that they care about their fans and don't want them dead.

 

[mickey2942]

I guess that we "can" go out now. But going out for a beer with friends, is hardly worth risking my life. Or having my hair cut. Going to the gym.

My own opinion.

So, home it is. No trips, no festivals, no rodeos. Nothing. Oh well, back to the garden.

 

[10ofRods]

This rally is inside. Another huge difference is the shear number of attendees vs. protestors. 20,000 I think. There was no protest of that magnitude.

And they are going to have something like another 10,000 watching remotely at the convention center down the street. The crowd outside will be large and contain people both pro- and anti- the organizers of the rally.

 

[doublestop]

Keep in mind, there were mask-less obese seniors out as well. They are apparently OK with the country locked down and millions permanently unemployed for their protection. But don't take away their Early Bird Special.

It's not just seniors and obese that get seriously ill. The lockdown is for everyone's protection. And just because someone is older or heavier doesn't mean that they CAN stay in all the time. They have the same needs as everyone else.

 

[SoCalDavidS]

Apple temporarily closing stores in NC, SC, FL & AZ due to spikes in Covid-19.

 

[10ofRods]

I think people don’t believe it’s real until it hits close to home.

Neighborhood app just went crazy because 5 teenagers tested positive this week. They’ve been in and out of various homes in the neighborhood, pool parties, vacation in Florida - no social distancing, no masks, no precautions.

And they wonder how it invaded their family.

Exactly. That's exactly how humans work. It makes me sad as I watch so many people go back in to a risky environment (and then take a few more risks, like taking a mask off to talk to someone). Since it appears we're now going to let this percolate through the US until many more get it, people will continue to risk until someone close to home is hospitalized. Hopefully, not so many will die, but it will still be quite the experience for those who haven't had a serious illness.

 

[10ofRods]

Do you think it is from the protests?
The timing seems about right.

Yes, I think our current uptick in SoCal is from the protests. The protesters themselves, in some cases are now sick, many with mild cases - so they're doing interviews with local TV reporters here and there.

Hospitalizations and use of ICU's are not dropping, as predicated for this time period. They are staying almost steady (small downward trend in overall hospitalizations - but ICU use remains the same). The increase from the protests overlaps with the increase from reopening, so we should continue to see a spike in California throughout this week.

The deaths by day chart here:

California coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak
(scroll a little)

is very concerning and is similar to that which we're seeing in several other states. The good news is that deaths per case has declined a bit, mostly due to fewer people over 90 in the mix. We'll see how the new steroid recommended for the ventilator population works out.

 

[margarita25]

How long til we get the Supreme Court ruling? Pulling my hair out.

There’s also going to be anti-Trump protestors there, adding to the already large crowd, further fueling the very dangerous situation.

This could be THE super spreading event that....

Praying hard and crossing my fingers this whole event will be be scrapped for the sake of public health and preventing what could turn out to be an absolute catastrophe for everyone.

I have such a bad feeling. Please Supreme Court.