Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #62

[Trino]

How’s this for a statement?

If you don’t like wearing a mask, you’ll hate the ventilator.

 

[10ofRods]

It doesn't need to be that way. If we had flattened the curve enough, it would have allowed time for treatments and a vaccine to be developed. By following the Sweden model going forward, it is entirely possible that 60-70% will become infected prior to a vaccine, but it didn't have to be that way. With more self control, we could have stretched this out until early 2021, when hopefully a vaccine will exist.

Of course, we have those who now want to go with the "well, what if there is NEVER a vaccine" argument. Which makes it much easier for people to accept the fact that we might as well open up, because it's never going to get better, so we're only hurting ourselves hoping for something to come along. And sure, it is possible that will be the case, but not according to what most scientists are saying. Most seem to believe that an effective vaccine will be in production by 2021, and eventually it will be readily available. I have yet to hear anyone with intelligence say that it is unlikely a vaccine will be developed anytime in the next several years.

Well, there's this guy. Fastest vaccine ever prepped for a virus was mumps (4 years). And it's hard to know what you mean by "several," but surely many people are not going to want to modify their behavior for 4 years. At least not in the US, not by a longshot.

And some nations seem to lack the economic ability to much (or the will, I guess): Brazil.

People really do differ on how many lives are worth the inconvenience and, perhaps also on how much loss of life from reshaping the economy so that the virus doesn't circulate.

I'm willing to sit it out for quite a while - but I'm older, am not trying to get a job or get a better job, plus I can mostly work from home. These are all big differences in how people see it, especially in the US where we have no social safety net.

 

[10ofRods]

Mission, Role and Pledge | About | CDC

Mission
CDC works 24/7 to protect America from health, safety and security threats, both foreign and in the U.S. Whether diseases start at home or abroad, are chronic or acute, curable or preventable, human error or deliberate attack, CDC fights disease and supports communities and citizens to do the same.

CDC increases the health security of our nation. As the nation’s health protection agency, CDC saves lives and protects people from health threats. To accomplish our mission, CDC conducts critical science and provides health information that protects our nation against expensive and dangerous health threats, and responds when these arise.


The best source is always CDCs own words, without censorship.

And then of course, the CDC publishes (as do other agencies). They do not go and put out "hotspots." They should be permitted to provide the critical health information freely and on their website, not through side interviews with MSM - but all of it, official and with peer review.

 

[gngr~snap]

Well, there's this guy. Fastest vaccine ever prepped for a virus was mumps (4 years). And it's hard to know what you mean by "several," but surely many people are not going to want to modify their behavior for 4 years. At least not in the US, not by a longshot.

And some nations seem to lack the economic ability to much (or the will, I guess): Brazil.

People really do differ on how many lives are worth the inconvenience and, perhaps also on how much loss of life from reshaping the economy so that the virus doesn't circulate.

I'm willing to sit it out for quite a while - but I'm older, am not trying to get a job or get a better job, plus I can mostly work from home. These are all big differences in how people see it, especially in the US where we have no social safety net.

This is (SARS-CoV-2) very similar to the first SARS virus.
There has been a lot of work, research and trials done on the first version. It is very possible that a vaccine could be available for a trial by fall 2020.
So it could take fewer than 4 years to be available to the public.
Then again there may never be a vaccine! All we can do is hope!
There is no vaccine for

• Chagas disease (American trypanosomiasis)
• Chikungunya
• Dengue
• Cytomegalovirus
• HIV/AIDS
• Hookworm infection
• Leishmaniasis
• Malaria
• Respiratory Syncytial Virus
• Schistosomiasis

Vaccine Nation: 10 most important diseases without a licensed vaccine - Baylor College of Medicine Blog Network
Moo

 

[tresir2012]

Yesterday I posted about the highest New Cases total for Orange County, CA of 413. Today's # bests that with 434.

That means the 4 Highest Daily Totals since the beginning of crisis, have all happened in the last 8 days. (434, 413, 288, 297)

I think these increases and the others being seen in other states now are the results of the attendance at the protests. MOO

In the Hague they are protesting against lockdown. Similar will probably happen there too.

Coronavirus updates: WHO records biggest one-day increase in global cases - BBC News
Trump was 'joking' about slowing down testing - White House

ReutersCopyright: ReutersAt his first campaign rally for months on Saturday, President Donald Trump told his supporters it was the "double-edged sword" of comprehensive testing that had led to the US having the world's highest number of coronavirus cases.

"When you do testing... you are going to find more people, you will find more cases," he told attendees in Tulsa, Oklahoma. "So I said to my people: 'Slow the testing down.'"The White House later said his comments were meant as a joke.But he revisited the issue on Monday with a new tweet in which he argued that the more tests a country carried out, the more cases it was likely to find. However, some health experts have said this is not the case.

The US has nearly 2.3m reported cases of the virus and the highest number of deaths worldwide with nearly 120,000.
Social embed from twitter
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Our Coronavirus testing is so much greater (25 million tests) and so much more advanced, that it makes us look like we have more cases, especially proportionally, than other countries. My message on that is very clear.

Posted at 9:549:54

Police deploy water cannon at The Hague's anti-lockdown protest
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images

Police deployed mounted officers and water cannon when unrest broke outImage caption: Police deployed mounted officers and water cannon when unrest broke out

Hundreds of people were arrested in The Hague in the Netherlands on Sunday, after a peaceful protest in the capital turned violent.
Mayor Johan Remkes allowed demonstrators to gather at 13:00 local time (11:00 GMT) on Sunday after originally banning the anti-lockdown protest amid fears that people would not observe social distancing.

Police then said a small number of “troublemakers”, who they identified as football fans, threw stones and smoke bombs at officers after the demonstration broke up. Mounted officers and water cannon were deployed to tackle the unrest.
“The atmosphere is grim,” the official police Twitter account posted.

Mayor Remkes later said a small group was “deliberately aiming to disturb public order”. “This has nothing to do with demonstrating or freedom of expression,” he wrote.

The largely peaceful anti-lockdown demonstration later turned violentImage caption: The largely peaceful anti-lockdown demonstration later turned violent.


More at link see summary.

Summary

1. World Health Organization records highest one-day increase in total cases, with 183,000 added in one day
2. Most came from Brazil, followed by the US and India
3. The high level of confirmed cases is partly down to a global increase in testing
4. Brazil passes 50,000 Covid-19 deaths; only the US has more
5. UK PM Boris Johnson will discuss reducing the 2m rule, with a decision expected on Tuesday
6. South Korea is going through a 'second wave' of coronavirus, officials say, even though new infections are falling
7. France is re-opening cinemas, swimming pools and holiday centres. All children up to 15 are back at school
8. Globally, there have been almost 9m confirmed cases since the outbreak began, with 467,000 death

 

[tresir2012]

Amid Confusion About Reopening, An Expert Explains How To Assess COVID-19 Risk

I brought this over from the prior thread because i think Dr. Osterholm has the most comprehensive and useful information about this virus that i have read. it is a must read. It is scary because he says (and i did read this before) that eventually 60-70% of the population will become infected. Now that is a very scary statistic and means many more people will die from this virus. He basically states that the virus will do what it does-- it will circulate and kill people. We need to take precautions-- that being outdoors is better than being indoors; wearing masks is good---that surfaces in his opinion is not a serious vector of the disease and that we are "over the top" with disinfectants- this is an airborne disease.
He also says that he gets nasty emails and threats by people who think the virus is a hoax and is being hyped to go against the president - he has turned these emails over to the police.

Copy and paste from part of your link.

On the risk of transmission from the outdoor Black Lives Matter protests

When it first occurred and we were watching it on our televisions, or being part of the protests themselves, it was clear that we were seeing all these people together for what had just been several months of hardly anyone together. And so the challenge of would this virus be transmitted in that environment was surely front and center for everyone in public health. Now, when we looked at that, we realized that it was outdoors largely, which in that case, the virus dissipates quite quickly into the air. If there's any air movements around, it literally blows the cloud away and, in a sense, disintegrates it. And so that would mean a lot less exposure to someone breathing the air near someone else who might be infected.

On the other hand, there were risk factors that we were concerned about, such as people who were exposed to tear gas and smoke that were coughing substantially. People yelling, shouting, whether they had a mask on or not, which we know can aerosolize the virus, getting it in terms of the air coming out of that voice. And then on top of that, we had individuals who were arrested, put in holding vehicles, sometimes for several hours before they were transported to the local jails, and they are then processed and put in a jail cell overnight. All of that would have likely increased cases. But as I said, we just haven't seen it yet. I think we're probably one to two weeks away from having more definitive answers, whether there was really an increase or not. And I think right now we are hopeful that we won't see a big increase in many of the cities that experienced these large crowds coming together.

On Trump's forthcoming indoor campaign rally in Tulsa, Okla., at a venue that holds 19,000 people


THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
Trump Plans An Indoor Rally In Tulsa. That Has Public Health Officials Worried
Right now, we have to understand that the single greatest risk factor we have for transmitting this virus is largely indoor air, where we're in large crowds, where we are sharing that air with the people right around us. Any activity that increases that, such as loud voices, shouting, singing, that we all know can enhance the virus being aerosolized or basically put into the air. So I would just say across the board, without regard to political party or why the event occurred, they shouldn't be occurring, if we're trying to reduce the risk of infectious disease transmission with this virus. It's just simply the last thing you'd want to do. It's almost like putting potential gasoline on a fire. I think it's fair to say that this should be a universal recommendation across the board that these kinds of events be avoided.

On how to assess risk based on general airflow

There's an old phrase in the environmental movement, "The solution to pollution is dilution." And actually in infectious diseases, the same thing is true. ... When you and I talk, we fill a room full of aerosols. If you actually had a special camera (that does exist and you can do this), you can actually see aerosols fill the room and these little particles after just 20 or 30 minutes of talking. So anything that moves air and moves that out more quickly is surely helpful. ...


GOATS AND SODA
WHO Creates 'Confusion' About Asymptomatic Spread. Here's What We Know
Outdoors has its own natural, in a sense, air conditioning. I often hear people talking about the risk of going to the beach, and ironically, beaches are probably some of the safest places to go to if you're not literally cheek and jowl with someone, just because the wind is blowing all the time. It's creating, in a sense, kind of a cleansing of the air where that virus might come out. If you're in a building where the heating, ventilation and cooling system is not moving air very frequently, then that aerosol that that person is breathing in that conference room is going to build up over time. And so, yes, you are going to be a greater risk in that kind of a setting.

 

[tresir2012]

@JaneEyre the stupidest thing ever, is the "suggestion" that businesses are responsible for enforcing that their clientele wear masks, or risk being closed.

It is working at Costco, probably because the people who go to Costco are from a higher SES. But other retail stores? Not so much.

My daughter (who works in retail) should not be held accountable to make some jerk who ignores a sign that requests patrons to wear a mask in the store. These people are already delusional, and as your article states, are predisposed to psychopathy.

I think they need personnel ( security guards) at the entrance to enforce it. We have some stores here who have guards ensuring customers only go in at the entrance and out at the exit plus make people take a trolley even if they only want one thing, because the trolley helps with distancing. Masks aren't mandatory at present in the UK except on public transport. Not sure how that is going as I haven't used public transport yet as I am limited to 5 miles except for essential or compassionate purposes. It is about to change soon but the rules are getting confusing now.

 

[303gmf]

People are moving to red states.

Less expensive? I did but only for my daughters and grandchildren.
Voted opposite as did many for Governor here.
Win, win as she’s done her job well trying to protect citizens with minimal federal assistance or direction while fighting the entrenched good ole boy traditions

 

[tresir2012]

Separate news report about the Dutch protests says 400 arrests were made.

Dutch police arrest 400 after virus protest turns violent

"The Hague municipality said in a statement that the soccer fans and other groups had descended on the city from around the Netherlands.



“This has nothing to do with demonstrating or freedom of expression,” Mayor Johan Remkes said in a statement. “This group deliberately aimed to disturb public order.”



The protesters argue that a proposed law formalizing the coronavirus measures goes too far and is unconstitutional.



“I’m 60-years-old, and this is the first time I’ve ever demonstrated, but democracy is in danger” said Wouter Thijs, one of the protesters.



By the end of the afternoon, police had encircled dozens of protesters who refused to leave the Malieveld park. An officer with a bull horn informed them they were all arrested for breaching a law governing public demonstrations. They protesters were then led onto buses and driven away.



Police said they also arrested five people near the train station for throwing rocks.



The official outbreak death toll in the Netherlands is 6,090, though the true toll is higher because not everybody who died of suspected COVID-19 was tested. The country’s public health institute reported just one new death Sunday."

 

[tresir2012]

Hundreds test positive at Tyson Foods plant in Arkansas

Hundreds test positive at Tyson Foods plant in Arkansas

If this has been posted already, I apologize. Once again we embarrass ourselves on the World stage.

From your link

"On Friday, Tyson Foods announced the results of coronavirus testing at its facilities in Benton and Washington Counties, Arkansas, and said that about 95 percent of employees who ultimately tested positive for the virus didn’t show any symptoms. Of the 3,748 employees tested, 481 tested positive for COVID-19, and 455 were asymptomatic.

There have been several other COVID-19 outbreaks at Tyson plants around the United States, including in North Carolina, Nebraska, and Iowa."


So 481 is about 13% of 3,748. That is a lot lower transmission percentage than in our UK plants. So don't beat yourself up and no need to apologise. This virus is just doing what it does best. We don't know how many are asymptomatic yet in our outbreak. It looks like Tysons may have nipped their outbreak in the bud if such a high percentage were asymptomatic.

This does help us with indoor rate transmissions. So this Tyson plant was 13% while the Welsh Seven Sisters one was much higher at 42%.

 

[tresir2012]

How’s this for a statement?

If you don’t like wearing a mask, you’ll hate the ventilator.

I think I call that mask shaming. Many people are on ventilators due to no fault of their own.

 

[ilovewings]

President Trump to attend 'Students for Trump' rally at Phoenix church on June 23

Trump will be attending a rally in Phoenix---
Honestly, I have no words----

 

[ilovewings]

President Trump to attend 'Students for Trump' rally at Phoenix church on June 23

Trump will attend a rally in Phoenix--- he is planning more rallies as well.
Honestly, I have no words----

 

[ilovewings]

I think I call that mask shaming. Many people are on ventilators due to no fault of their own.

I don't see it as mask shaming: i see it as trying to convey a message: yes a mask may be uncomfortable but it is very important to wear it and if you choose not to do so you may be leaving yourself vulnerable to the virus and could wind up on a ventilator, which is a lot more uncomfortable than a mask.

 

[tresir2012]

I don't see it as mask shaming: i see it as trying to convey a message: yes a mask may be uncomfortable but it is very important to wear it and if you choose not to do so you may be leaving yourself vulnerable to the virus and could wind up on a ventilator, which is a lot more uncomfortable than a mask.

Where I live doesn't require masks. And do you have data that states you end up on a ventilator if you don't wear a mask? How did the old people in homes get it? How are these meat plant workers getting it?

 

[margarita25]

“HOUSTON – If Harris County continues on the same new case trajectory as it is on at present, Houston could become the worst affected city in the U.S., according to nationally recognized infectious disease expert, Dr. Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine.

In a tweet Saturday morning, Hotez said if things continue as they are, Harris County could rival the situation that is currently being seen in Brazil.

“If we continue on the same trajectory, my worry is Houston could become the worst affected city right now in North America,” Hotez said in an interview with KPRC 2.“

[...]

“Finally, his third prediction in his tweet was that the county “would need to proceed to red alert.” As of Sunday night, Harris County is listed at Orange Level 2 on the COVID-19 Threat Level System. This means there is a significant and uncontrolled spread of the virus in the county. To be upgraded to the Red Level 1 the spread of the virus would have to be classified as severe and uncontrolled.“

-more at link
If Harris County continues same coronavirus track, Houston could be worst affected city in US, expert says

He also goes on to say how wearing a mask is not enough, and this is so important imo as Dr. Mike also still talks about how mask-wearing should be part of “comprehensive package”.

——

“I cannot really see how things get better on their own. In such case we must take steps to protect Houston - even if it means defying the "health freedom" antiscience crazies . I'm willing to take the heat - they don't care for me much anyway from my staunch defense of #vaccines “
pic.twitter.com/hP9m2KK3iM

— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) June 20, 2020

 

[ilovewings]

Where I live doesn't require masks. And do you have data that states you end up on a ventilator if you don't wear a mask? How did the old people in homes get it? How are these meat plant workers getting it?

I have no desire to get into a mask fight with you. Believe what you wish. You can choose to wear a mask or not. Have a nice day.

 

[Betty P]

Well, there's this guy. Fastest vaccine ever prepped for a virus was mumps (4 years). And it's hard to know what you mean by "several," but surely many people are not going to want to modify their behavior for 4 years. At least not in the US, not by a longshot.

And some nations seem to lack the economic ability to much (or the will, I guess): Brazil.

People really do differ on how many lives are worth the inconvenience and, perhaps also on how much loss of life from reshaping the economy so that the virus doesn't circulate.

I'm willing to sit it out for quite a while - but I'm older, am not trying to get a job or get a better job, plus I can mostly work from home. These are all big differences in how people see it, especially in the US where we have no social safety net.

In 1957, a vaccine for what was called the Chinese flu virus was developed in 4-5 months. Some are more complex than others, but we should have a vaccine in the next several months. JMO, it will be developed in Europe, Japan or China as US drug development has become too commercialized and is no longer geared to find real cures quickly. We've already wasted a lot of time testing existing therapies sitting on the shelf at pharma companies here.

 

[Sundog]

I do. It's not mandatory to attend or to watch it on TV. He had 4 million watch it live last time. So you can just do that safely if you don't want to attend.

Do you know if it will be televised? I think this event is organized by Charlie Kirk, and he invited the President to speak on behalf of the students. Not 100% sure, but think I saw this on the news the other night. I think they said about 3,000 students.

 

[margarita25]

In 1957, a vaccine for what was called the Chinese flu virus was developed in 4-5 months. Some are more complex than others, but we should have a vaccine in the next several months. JMO, it will be developed in Europe, Japan or China as US drug development has become too commercialized and is no longer geared to find real cures quickly. We've already wasted a lot of time testing existing therapies sitting on the shelf at pharma companies here.

This reminds me, some important information re: Influenza from WHO PC on 6/15:

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 15 June 2020
15 June 2020

“Good morning, good afternoon and good evening.

Globally, more than 7.8 million cases of COVID-19 have now been reported to WHO, and more than 430,000 deaths.

It took more than 2 months for the first 100,000 cases to be reported. For the past two weeks, more than 100,000 new cases have been reported almost every single day.

Almost 75% of recent cases come from 10 countries, mostly in the Americas and South Asia.

However, we also see increasing numbers of cases in Africa, eastern Europe, central Asia and the Middle East.

Even in countries that have demonstrated the ability to suppress transmission, countries must stay alert to the possibility of resurgence.

Last week, China reported a new cluster of cases in Beijing, after more than 50 days without a case in that city. More than 100 cases have now been confirmed.

The origin and extent of the outbreak are being investigated.

===

Despite the ongoing global response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we cannot lose sight of other significant public health issues, including influenza.

Influenza affects every country every year, and takes its own deadly toll.

As we enter the southern hemisphere influenza season and begin planning for the northern hemisphere season, we must ensure that influenza remains a top priority.

Co-circulation of COVID-19 and influenza can worsen the impact on health care systems that are already overwhelmed.

More than 500 million people are vaccinated against flu every year, based on recommendations from WHO on the composition of flu vaccines.

These recommendations are based on data and virus samples collected and analyzed by WHO’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, or GISRS.

The GISRS system has been functioning since 1952 and I would like to thank the more than 125 countries that participate in it.

Over the past 8 years, significant strengthening of the system has been made possible through the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework, and I would also like to thank the public and private sector partners that participate in this global system.

The infrastructure, people, skills and experience built up through GISRS, WHO Collaborating Centres, and national influenza centres have been the foundation for detecting COVID-19.

However, this well-established system is now seeing significant challenges.

Influenza surveillance has either been suspended or is declining in many countries, and there has been a sharp decline in sharing of influenza information and viruses because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Compared with the last three years, we’ve seen a dramatic decrease in the number of specimens tested for influenza globally.

We’ve also seen a 62% decrease in the number of virus shipments to WHO Collaborating Centres, and a 94% decrease in the number of influenza viruses with genetic sequence data uploaded to the GISAID database.

These decreases are due to a combination of issues, including the repurposing of staff and supplies, overburdened laboratories, and transport restrictions.

These disruptions may have short- and long-term effects, such as the loss of capacities to detect and report new influenza viruses with pandemic potential.

As many of you know, twice a year WHO convenes a group of experts who together analyze the circulating flu strains. Based on their analysis they select the viruses that should be targeted by flu vaccines for the upcoming season in each hemisphere.

To know which viruses are circulating, WHO relies on information from countries reported through GISRS, which we use to make recommendations for the composition of influenza vaccines.

This will help us to prevent more severe cases of flu and more deaths.

WHO has published guidance on how to integrate surveillance for COVID-19 into routine influenza surveillance as an efficient way to track both of these important respiratory viruses.

This is not only cost-effective, it’s also essential for protecting the world against the next flu season.

The Southern Hemisphere flu season is already underway. There is no time to lose.

I thank you.”