Like I said, I know a bunch of people who got it. And some of those people weren't doing anything risky. They still got it. I am going to ignore that study. Makes no sense to me.
When it hits, it hits. If you go into a church were 2 people have it and there are 100 people there, then obviously the odds are not 1 in 4000. That number is including all people (including children, and we know kids are 1) less likely to get CoVid and 2) less likely to be tested for CoVid but still transmit.
Anyway, I'm too old to be in their "optimistic risk group for May 2020," which is now less optimistic at end of June. If things go the way they are going today, then even worse by end of September.
When that study was written, my county had 60 active CoVid cases, we now have 550 (known). Other studies from Stanford and UCLA say that the actual rate of CoVid is 2-10X higher than the rates used for that study. (Which the authors did not AFAIK factor in - but their goal was very different than how the DailyMail is using their study...making Americans look like (bleached) chickens).
Remember, none of those scientists was actually doing stochastic modeling for the future.
I am slightly more of a risk taker than some people, but right now is the worst part of this pandemic for me personally, so far. End of May, with only 50-60 known transmitters and now with about 550...hmmm...I'm guessing that study has little relevance to me personally.
I still think we should have had a softer shutdown, and I am still in favor of a guided reopening, but since many people on WS are older, I want us to stay safe. I also think that overall risk assessment does not start and stop with disease ratios in an overall population, which is why we don't see more research of this type.
If people are persuaded by news articles, I'm fine with them going out into the world and most of them will not die of CoVid. I probably won't die of CoVid this year or next.
There are two other states to keep in mind. IF someone gets CoVId, their overall chance of dying worldwide is 9% (1 out of 11 who get it). If they get it in the US, it's currently 5% who die (of diagnosed cases), but of course we all know that's not evenly distributed by age. If you don't get CoVid, you don't even have to think about those odds. The 5% will come down when June is tallied, because fewer of the very old are dying. It'll be about 1% for my age group.
If I, myself, get CoVid at age 65 my chances of dying are about 1% (actually, it's more like .8% because men die more of this disease, even given similar comorbidities, than women - so if I were a man, it would be 1.2% IF I got it). Those numbers should continue to drop as a better standard of care comes into place, unless we overload hospitals then all bets off again.
We just should recognize that certain demographics (18-30 in particular) are now going to get CoVid in higher rates than during the shutdown, they have little income, some are looking for jobs and competing against all the rest of us, and it's normal for them to want to socialize and party. The 1 in 4000, even in May, was not equally spread across all parts of the demographic pyramid (I'd advise that research group to hire both a sociologist and an anthropologist,
).
It would be a good fellowship for a newly minted applied sociologist or anthropologist.
When worldwide arithmetic and division is taking place, it's best to back out the numbers from places that have wildly differing CoVid death rates.
With more than 3X the population of California (for example), Vietnam has way fewer deaths.
California: ~5000 deaths
Vietnam 0 deaths (Zero)
Both started with the about the same number of original cases.
Vietnam has 4.5X the population of Florida. Florida has ~3200 deaths (and counting, Vietnam has no new cases for many days).
You could add to the list that China (with about 1/5th of the world's population) and India/Pakistan/Sri Lanka (together almost ⅓ of the world's population) and their comparatively low rates.
Hmmm. So...redo the math (find a multiplier for real cases and death rates per case, because the thing is still spreading) and base your odds on that. Africa, for example, has a transportation system so demolished that Old School plague statistics predict a different course for them than for other continents.
Latin America is just getting started, as are half the U.S. States. So...a lot depends on exactly where a real human lives as an individual, not on where the 7.85 billion of us live collectively.
. The specific funeral being referenced was April 28 if that helps.
