Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #63

[dmac55]

"Heros are people who have the emotional capability to care about strangers"

Rescue Heroes
Saturday morning educational docu-series on ABC
(Although I watched it today- Sunday)
The show has nothing to do with COVID-19
Nevertheless the quote stuck with me

 

[10ofRods]

Well, if they are packed on a beach like sardines, then it probably could spread even outdoors.

Humidity plays a role as well. SARS-CoVid-2 survives and floats in the environment quite a bit longer in dry air (which is why indoor A/C is such a potent transmitter - ductwork + cool dry air = longer lasting CV).

6 feet is probably not enough space in some outdoor settings where people are yelling or panting. The L.A. Marathon is thought to be a super-spreader event for Los Angeles.

At any rate, every American seems to think that their own understanding of CoVid is enough to get them through - just watched two young men tell a reporter in Florida that since they are young and go to the gym, they "are not worried" even when something like 20% of people being tested are positive and Florida had almost 10,000 new positive cases (many of them young people) yesterday.

While many young people (about half) will barely notice they have the virus, sadly many may still have lung damage. And about 20% will require hospitalization (even if not ICU, a 3-4 week stay in a hospital is no walk in the park, I hope they all have insurance - but the strain on medical resources is unprecedented from something like this).

As Florida, Georgia, Texas and Arizona are in particular finding out this weekend. The length of the lines for testing! Oof!

 

[LadyL]

"moistly speaking"

Dammit, I should’ve put that in!!

ok what did I miss? this feels like a Canadian joke that I didn't see
from a news conference perhaps?

 

[Sillybilly]

ok what did I miss? this feels like a Canadian joke that I didn't see
from a news conference perhaps?

Prime Minster Trudeau when speaking about the wearing of masks. Got a lot of laughs around the world. (I think as a polite Canuck he was probably avoiding the term "spitting"). Starts about the 1 minute mark in the video at the link:

Trudeau cringes at his own ‘speaking moistly’ tip for coronavirus masks

 

[10ofRods]

It's still a small number.

Yes, except that viruses can be exponential. Sacramento County's rate just moved back to above an Rt of 1.0. It's something to watch. That's what's happening in other counties.

It looks like Sacramento County is now on the state watch list, as the Rt has moved up. Statewide, CoVid is increasing at R1.13, but in your county - and mine - it's doubling about every 16-17 days. State average is something like every 28 days. This is faster than in Riverside County and about the same as San Bernardino County, just for comparison.

San Francisco is doing well - has had CV cases early on, and doubles only every 40 days.

So stay safe!

California coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak

 

[Bravo]

ok what did I miss? this feels like a Canadian joke that I didn't see
from a news conference perhaps?

It is. It was a bit ago when Prime Minister Trudeau was speaking to the Nation. IIRC he was talking about transmission "speaking moistly" was one of them and got a lot of mileage lol.

 

[Bravo]

Thanks sillybilly^

 

[tresir2012]

PM 'will not return to austerity of 10 years ago'

"Fit as a butcher's dog"

Amid continued criticism of the way his government has handled the pandemic, the PM told the paper that ministers will be "doubling down on levelling up" - spending on infrastructure in order to "build our way back to health".

"If Covid was a lightning flash, we're about to have the thunderclap of the economic consequences," he said.

"We're going to make sure that we have plans to help people whose old jobs are not there any more to get the opportunities they need."

Image copyrightIAN MCILGORM/THE MAIL ON SUNDAY
Image captionBoris Johnson did press-ups as he spoke about his own - and the economy's - recovery from coronavirus
In the Mail on Sunday article, the PM said the country would "bounce back" from the pandemic. He reinforced his message by doing press-ups to show he is "fit as a butcher's dog", following intensive care treatment for the virus in April.

Meanwhile the UK's coronavirus death toll rose by 36 on Sunday to 43,550.

Scotland recorded no new coronavirus deaths for a third consecutive day, and there has been one more death in Northern Ireland.

An Infrastructure Delivery Taskforce, led by Chancellor Rishi Sunak, aims to help to remove "bottlenecks" faced by major projects.

No 10 hopes a building boom will boost jobs and improve connectivity for cities, towns and villages.

More at link.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Well, that's what she told her parents. Did they go inside somewhere either before or after bonfire? Everything I heard indicates the virus is not easy to spread outside. But if she indeed got it at a bonfire, that indicates that it does spread outside.

But what if you are downwind of someone with it? I keep my distance and am always aware of which way the wind is blowing when I’m outside with people.

 

[MrX]

And bars can just wait until virus is under control

No, thanks. I doubt I have that many years (decades?) left.

 

[LadyL]

Yeah ... but can you beat this guy? Dr Nick Coatsworth, the deputy chief medical officer for Australia, who always does the pressers about covid. It is no wonder we are so compliant!

View attachment 253069
Our medical experts

no one can hold a candle to that
- and with an Australian accent? yowza

(mods please excuse the inappropriate Covid humour)

 

[Deleted member 39678]

But what if you are downwind of someone with it? I keep my distance and am always aware of which way the wind is blowing when I’m outside with people.

You can stay upwind of everyone and the people who are downwind of you will have to hope you don't have the virus.

 

[Tate123]

JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association published a piece on the mortality at nursing homes in Cleveland, Detroit, and New York.

The piece (linked below) found that:

• In Cleveland, there was higher mortality at SNFs in 2020 vs 2019 (mean, 6.3 and 4.9, respectively, per 1000 residents per week during March-May), but the difference was not statistically significant (adjusted IRR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.94-1.11).
  
• In Detroit, there was higher mortality at SNFs in 2020 vs in 2019 (mean, 7.9 and 3.5, respectively, per 1000 residents per week during March-May; adjusted IRR, 2.18; 95% CI, 2.01-2.37).
• In New York City, there was higher mortality at SNFs in 2020 vs in 2019 (mean, 13.8 vs 4.1, respectively, per 1000 residents per week during March-May; adjusted IRR, 4.13; 95% CI, 3.95-4.33).

So from March to May, the mortality rate in nursing homes was up about 25% in Cleveland, up about 100% in Detroit, and up a stunning 300% in NYC.

The governors of New York and Michigan were 2 of the 7 governors that required or pushed nursing homes to take back from hospitals, residents who had tested positive for COVID-19. The governor of Ohio did not make that same policy choice.

The attached charts are from that piece and show how awful the situation was at New York City nursing homes.

View attachment 253150

Mortality, Admissions, and Patient Census at Urban US SNFs During the COVID-19 Pandemic

New York's handling of the crisis in its nursing homes has been a colossal failure on every level. Tragic really.

 

[SoCalDavidS]

New York's handling of the crisis in its nursing homes has been a colossal failure on every level. Tragic really.

True, and since we're passing blame around, we should include those who were actively publicly saying in the middle of March that there wasn't a problem, and the virus was under complete control.

 

[gngr~snap]

Did someone say Church?
I can't even and in TX?
This won't turn out well!
IMO
Mike Pence in Dallas: Vice president wears mask but 100-person choir sings without them - CNNPolitics

 

[10ofRods]

True, and since we're passing blame around, we should include those who were actively publicly saying in the middle of March that there wasn't a problem, and the virus was under complete control.

I was just looking through news articles from April when many California news outlets were crowing about how low our rates were. Of course, CoVid had only just arrived in some counties (like mine) and it takes a while to get started. Counties where shut down occurred before CoVid really took hold (like mine) fared very well until the shutdown ended and now we're doubling cases at a rate of every 17-18 days, which means we will have 2000 new cases in the next 2.4 weeks.

To put it another way, about 1000 people already have CoVid but won't be tested until they become symptomatic and another 1000 may already have mild symptoms and be headed into testing tomorrow. Apparently the lines for testing are starting to get long here, too.

Of those 2000 new cases, about 200 may require ICU (depending on demographics - right now the average age of each new case is dropping, so maybe I can be conservative and say 100 new ICU cases, at an average of 45 days per stay).

We've got just enough hospital capacity for that and since L.A.'s rates are slowing (due to mask use IMO), we can borrow some if we need to.

There are now 11 counties in the same situation. Our uptick started 3 weeks ago, was of course slow at first, and now here we are, a county with one of the fastest growing numbers of CoVid cases in California.

 

[10ofRods]

You can stay upwind of everyone and the people who are downwind of you will have to hope you don't have the virus.

Fun fact: in Sweden and in some parts of Canada, it's custom for two to four people who are talking in a group to all stand with the wind at their back (so instead of face-to-face, it's shoulder-to-shoulder). It may be a more masculine behavior in Canada - I don't know and I don't know if it's mostly rural. Hopefully some Canadians will weigh in.

I think it's common in Scandinavia in general, and Garrison Keillor notes it was a thing in Lake Wobegon.

 

[sallye818]

@Recidivist -- you and your family are in my prayers during your bereavement. And keep taking care of yourself and your grandson. You're doing the right thing. I will lift you both up, for your continued good health.

 

[katydid23]

I wouldn't know, as we no longer have cable and don't watch much news. But I'll take your word for it. Well, this prompted my DH to go look for live news from around the nation - we're watching Florida right now. Absolutely nothing about protests or condoning outdoor crowds. In Texas, the governor is focusing on indoor transmission.

However, if I could get any of my students (average age 21) to watch any news, I'd be a happy camper. And that's a key variable.

Here in L.A., L.A. Times says that some did get CoVid at the protests...I do read newspapers.

Black Lives Matter protests have not led to a spike in coronavirus cases, research says
By Leah Asmelash, CNN
Black Lives Matter protests have not led to a spike in coronavirus cases, research says - CNN

Parties — Not Protests — Are Causing Spikes In Coronavirus
June 24, 20203:23 PM ET
Parties — Not Protests — Are Causing Spikes In Coronavirus

Black Lives Matter protests haven't led to COVID-19 spikes. It may be due to people staying home.
As the protests grew, many people not participating opted to stay home and avoid going out.
Black Lives Matter protests haven't led to COVID-19 spikes. It may be due to people staying home.

Why protests aren't as dangerous for spreading coronavirus as you might think
Ashish Jha
Why protests aren't as dangerous for spreading coronavirus as you might think | Ashish Jha


Did Black Lives Matter protests cause a coronavirus surge ...
www.vox.com › coronavirus-pandemic-black-lives-mat...2 days ago - But multiple analyses suggest the protests are not to blame, according to what ... and so on — in which the coronavirus is more likely to spread.

 

[zecats]

Fun fact: in Sweden and in some parts of Canada, it's custom for two to four people who are talking in a group to all stand with the wind at their back (so instead of face-to-face, it's shoulder-to-shoulder). It may be a more masculine behavior in Canada - I don't know and I don't know if it's mostly rural. Hopefully some Canadians will weigh in.

I think it's common in Scandinavia in general, and Garrison Keillor notes it was a thing in Lake Wobegon.

Ah..Lake Wobegon..."where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average." We listened to that every Saturday evening on Public Radio. I confess - I don't remember the shoulder-to-shoulder talking. I does make sense though, to let the virus proceed from the mouth downwind.