Our Luck May Have Run Out
Excellent explanation of what has happened in California since reopening began.
Over the past week California’s case count has exploded, surpassing 200,000 known infections, and forcing Mr. Newsom to roll back the state’s reopening in some counties. On Monday, he said the number of people hospitalized in California had risen 43 percent over the past two weeks.
Los Angeles County, which has been averaging more than 2,000 new cases each day, surpassed 100,000 total cases on Monday, with the virus actively infecting one in every 140 people, according to local health officials. More than 2,800 cases were announced in the county on Monday, the most of any day during the pandemic.
More than 7,000 new cases were announced across California on Monday, its highest single-day total of the pandemic.
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“To some extent I think our luck may have run out,” said Dr. Bob Wachter, a professor and chair of the department of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. “This is faster and worse than I expected. You have to have a ton of respect for this thing. It is nasty and it just lurks and waits to stomp on you if you let your guard down for a second.”
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And just as in Texas and Florida, the state’s reopening appears to have triggered a large resurgence. Pressured in part by businesses, church groups and conservatives, Mr. Newsom ceded control of much of the timing of reopening to local officials who were eager to regain a sense of normalcy and stem economic losses. The result was a decentralized, haphazard process that sowed confusion and gave residents a false sense that they were in the clear.
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But health experts and state officials say the ultimate reasons for the surge lie in the millions of individual decisions made across the vast state.
Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles blamed “irrational exuberance.”
“A lot of people didn’t stick with the plan,” the mayor said in an interview on Friday. “The idea was, we would do a move, wait three weeks, check the impact, take the next move.”
Instead, Mr. Garcetti said, the reopening “was like a tidal wave — one move led to the next, led to the next, led to the next. And then we had the protest on top of that, and other things. And we have yet to be able to identify where spread is happening and what we can do to crank it down.”
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“How this disease spreads is all about the margins,” Dr. Pan said. “All it takes is, like, 5 percent more people doing more high-risk behavior to change its direction.”
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David Townsend, a veteran Democratic political consultant in the state, said California’s size and political complexity pose a considerable challenge. Although the Legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic, more than a fifth of the electorate is Republican.
“You have the Inland Empire doing one thing, Los Angeles doing another, Orange County — it’s pretty hard to corral everybody in California and get them to do the right thing. It’s just so big.”
‘Our Luck May Have Run Out’: California’s Case Count Explodes