Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #64

[CoverMeCagney]

They still make round cakes which feed less people. But you can buy several round cakes for a big party, LOL. Not that you should be going to big parties right now.

Had to google sheet cake, I'm not sure what we call them here - tray bake, maybe?

Regardless, nobody's gonna be putting candles all over cakes and blowing them out before serving to everyone. Euuwww. The candle business is ruined... ruined, I tell you!

 

[tresir2012]

But likewise, some factions have very good reason to downplay negative news while broadcasting hearts and flowers about whatever statistic they can manipulate to suit.

Who to believe, who to believe.

That's why I only look at the death stats. Who was it said there are only two sure things in this life? Death and taxes.

 

[margarita25]

I’m back from a lovely walk with the pup and just realized I was singing “Happy Birthday” in my head while washing his paws.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

'We are getting clobbered': Six months into COVID-19, doctors fear what comes next

COVID-19 plus the flu could quickly overwhelm health care systems.

 

[margarita25]

'We are getting clobbered': Six months into COVID-19, doctors fear what comes next

COVID-19 plus the flu could quickly overwhelm health care systems.

Doc T...

“On Monday, the World Health Organization marked the six months since a cluster of cases of a mysterious pneumonia in China was reported with a warning that the pandemic is "actually speeding up."

"We all want this to be over. We all want to get on with our lives," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in his opening statement. "But the hard reality is: This is not even close to being over."“

.

I’ll take that one to the bank. Man.

 

[CharlestonGal]

But likewise, some factions have very good reason to downplay negative news while broadcasting hearts and flowers about whatever statistic they can manipulate to suit.

Who to believe, who to believe.

I lean towards believing the 744 people who have died today. Double the deaths of yesterday. That is exactly the wrong direction.

 

[10ofRods]

California's daily death rate ~30% higher than projected. 101 deaths.

Summary of projections: IHME | COVID-19 Projections

We were projected to have 69 deaths today, leading to improved overall death rates in future. At one point, California was projected to have 15,500 deaths by Oct 1. Then, based on our previous behavior, it went down to around 9.850.

We had 101 deaths today and the day's reporting isn't quite over. So the projection will have to go back up (it's now 4 days in a row that we exceeded the more optimistic projection.)

I predict they will postpone K-12 opening by a couple of weeks if this continue. Hospitals will once again be having to hire people away from each other and try to get their local acts together.

 

[Midgie2]

My neighbors are the sweetest couple ever. And the kids are so excited to go back to school this fall. Middle school.
I didn’t want to say anything, but I don’t think schools will be open for long.

 

[margarita25]

Texas Medical Association Urges GOP To Delay State Convention In Houston Due To Coronavirus Surge

As the Texas GOP presses ahead with plans for a 3 day convention, which typically draws thousands of attendees, starting July 16, the state’s largest medical group urged the party to reconsider before Republicans flock to Houston, which has become one of the nation’s worst COVID-19 hotspots.

The state’s GOP leaders have maintained that the Convention will go forward and that face coverings will not be mandated, even as Gov. Greg Abbott urges the public to wear them.

Texas GOP Chairman James Dickey, who previously described the convention as a chance to “lead the way” in promoting personal responsibility, issued a statement in which he thanked the doctors for the letter but was noncommittal about whether it would lead to any changes.

“We are taking all input from those involved with our Convention, including that from our Party leadership and our delegates, very seriously,” Dickey said.

Hmmm...I wonder what Mayor Sylvester Turner will have to say about this. He might not endorse this.

Will he speak out? We will see...

 

[CoverMeCagney]

That's why I only look at the death stats. Who was it said there are only two sure things in this life? Death and taxes.

I don't even entirely trust all the death stats, to be honest.

Both the US and UK are apparently underreporting. Several states are still not including care home deaths, which means the US death figure should be several thousand higher. The UK does include care homes, but has an unexplained excess death rate, as do several other nations. Nobody is reporting in the exact same way as other countries so comparison is inconsistent and some stats seem fantastical. Most countries have a political or financial agenda. The media are using scare tactics to sell newspapers. The business owners are desperate to earn money. The pharma companies are watching their bank balances rise. The politicians are trying to save their skin at any cost. So, who SHOULD we believe?

It's all one big chaotic mess (in my very own personal opinion)

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

National mandate on mask-wearing could work better than lockdowns, new report suggests

"A national mask mandate could increase U.S. face mask usage by statistically significant and economically large amounts," the report concluded.

A national mask mandate could be more effective than lockdowns, and could save the U.S. from a 5 percent hit to economic growth, according to a new report from investment giant Goldman Sachs.

“Our baseline estimate is that a national mandate could raise the percentage of people who wear masks by 15 percentage points and cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1 percentage point,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, wrote in the note to clients.

“These calculations imply that a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5 percent from GDP,” Hatzius continued...

 

[tresir2012]

I don't even entirely trust all the death stats, to be honest.

Both the US and UK are apparently underreporting. Several states are still not including care home deaths, which means the US death figure should be several thousand higher. The UK does include care homes, but has an unexplained excess death rate, as do several other nations. Nobody is reporting in the exact same way as other countries so comparison is inconsistent and some stats seem fantastical. Most countries have a political or financial agenda. The media are using scare tactics to sell newspapers. The business owners are desperate to earn money. The pharma companies are watching their bank balances rise. The politicians are trying to save their skin at any cost. So, who SHOULD we believe?

It's all one big chaotic mess (in my very own personal opinion)

It's a good idea to also look at the excess death statistics which show a more accurate number directly from death certificates. For UK we are just about down to normal now. Don't know regarding US as so many states to look at regarding their sources.

 

[SouthAussie]

This whole set of issues drives me crazy and keeps me awake at night.

I think that once the school notifies parents that one child has CoVid, the advice will be to have all the kids tested. Most parents are going to freak out. I don't know how working parents are going to handle it. A lot of people may opt to homeschool, where legal (which still requires checking in, in some fashion - often online these days).

With so many people unemployed, some parents will just stay home with their kids (whether the parents are able to properly homeschool or not).

If they don't quarantine at least the entire class/playground group, schools can easily become community-wide spreaders.

The risk to teachers is significant, as well. The state universities in California are struggling with how to get younger people through the credential pipeline, since there are no student teaching opportunities (real world). I think they may start including online teaching as part of the plan. Too soon to tell.

Parents of teens tend to be older - old enough to be concerned about one wage earner being sidelined for a 2-3 months if they get a moderately severe case.

Most of my own students live at home with parents who are in their mid-40's. Some are single parents and live with a parent and grandparent. Everyone will need different contigency plans, when the schools start sending kids home for a couple of weeks (or close altogether, which they probably will if there are 2-3 cases in a school).

I am hoping it won't be as bad as we are thinking.

We (our entire country) have handled positive cases being identified in schools by closing the school for just a few days to allow complete sterilisation. Then the school opens up again.

A few teachers have tested positive and a few teenage students have tested positive.

The normalcy of returning to school has been very good for the kids. And this has allowed at least one parent to return to work.

But I am wondering about online lessons and teaching at all school levels. Is this not possible for the majority?

 

[Lilibet]

No social distancing planned for Trump's Mt. Rushmore fireworks event, governor says - CNNPolitics

Not political, but is this insanity on steroids? And, Sturgis is still on!
With some COVID restrictions in place, 2020 Sturgis Motorcycle Rally throttles ahead - Casper, WY Oil City News

Pray for the Black Hills residents! We passed through Keystone (near Mt Rushmore) during Sturgis in 2004 and it was packed. The motorcycle rally isn’t just in the town of Sturgis. They are all over the area. It’s really very cool, especially that Harley sound! I could have done without the “biker mamas” lifting up their T-shirts as they rode through town on the back of bikes. Apparently, it’s a “thing.”

 

[katydid23]

No, it won't mean herd immunity is going well. Herd immunity and death rate are two different things. With herd immunity, infection rates are supposed to drop. Death rate lags behind infection numbers. Death rate could also be going lower because younger people are getting infected. It has nothing do do with herd immunity.

Yes, with 'herd immunity' infection rates drop.

But approaching herd immunity takes time. And the best way to do it is to have the youngest and healthiest catch the virus, which keeps the death rate low, but increases the Herd Immunity percentage.

 

[squareandrabbet]

Shows in Vegas, one is tentatively scheduled in Vegas for end of July, but they have not staffed the theater yet.

I don't know what to think. Although, my husband thinks that there are probably some awesome travel deals for Vegas right now.

well, their website says directly that they are tentatively still planning on Vegas show but evaluating and exploring options for sanitization protocols in the interim.

Also, their website is currently listing 17 discrete themed productions, so I’m thinking they still have more than enough employees to be truthful about letting go 3,500.

 

[margarita25]

Not-so random musing:

?: What’s for dinner?
A: Bean Soup
?: Again?
A: Get used to it.

Eta: It’s about the best damn bean soup you’ve ever had though. I’ve had months to perfect it!

 

[SouthAussie]

I am hoping it won't be as bad as we are thinking.

We (our entire country) have handled positive cases being identified in schools by closing the school for just a few days to allow complete sterilisation. Then the school opens up again.

A few teachers have tested positive and a few teenage students have tested positive.

The normalcy of returning to school has been very good for the kids. And this has allowed at least one parent to return to work.

But I am wondering about online lessons and teaching at all school levels. Is this not possible for the majority?

I just want to add to this information, that at first there was a big hue and cry about our schools reopening. So initially parents were able to choose whether or not to send their kids back to school, or have online lessons (double workload for the teachers).

But after a few weeks of successful reopenings, school attendance became mandatory again.

 

[Betty P]

That would be good, except for the fact that most people's health plans won't cover home care. Though Medicare might, so if you are over 65, you might not have to file for bankruptcy.

I think it varies from one state to the next. The US is not in good shape right now when it comes to health insurance coverage.

 

[katydid23]

what could possibly have gone wrong with no medical experts in charge of deciding how to open up: our country has gone bananas

That article didn't say 'there were no medical experts.' There were several on each panel, and it saids they reviewed each step of the proposed reopening phases.

"Industry officials said they drew their reopening recommendations from state and federal guidelines as well as restrictions in other states, in order to ensure safety and consistency.

He stressed that officials from the governor’s office and the Ohio Department of Health were involved in approving the guidelines."


Did anyone think there weren't going to be any new cases when we began opening up again?

The death totals have stayed very low in Ohio, even though the cases are rising. The new cases are mostly very young patients, and hopefully they will recover quickly.

People who can quarantine--- while living on social security or pensions or work from home jobs ---seem very dismissive of those who own businesses or rely upon daily jobs to support their families. MANY people are grateful that there were business experts on the board, when they made the plans to reopen.

People who are comfortably hibernating and ordering food and feeling all cozy may not understand that IF the economy totally collapses, they will not be able to live so comfortably anymore.

Someone has to protect the supply chains and the transportation hubs and the manufacturing plants, in order for the rest of us to be able to order our instacart supplies each week. JMO