Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #66

[gitana1]

It's higher than what most medical researchers would like - many recommend lockdowns (real ones) at 5% (1 in 20 people currently have CoVid).

I wouldn't be too paranoid about your Home Depot visit. But...if it's been 3 days since that visit and you're worrying about it, please make an appointment and go get tested. I don't know your age of course, but if you're over 50, do think about going to get tested. The initial immune response to CoVid is enough to protect most healthy young people. Viral load is a factor too and Home Depot is certainly not as infectious as a hospital ER or overflow CoVid unit - or a long term care facility.

The reason to get tested early is that most of us, even with comorbidities, can avoid pneumonia with early treatment. Also, it gives you a chance to think hard about who your doctor is and what happens next. You're in an area with really good hospitals and doctors.

Do you have an oximeter? (It's been such a help to my own anxiety - since I can see there's oxygen in my blood!) The people who just flop over from CoVid without prior symptoms have blood oxygen at 80% or lower (and didn't notice!)

BTW, the research seems to show that those same people (the asymptomatic ones who suddenly die) may share a rare gene on the 20th chromosome and many have other genes that are associated with higher risk from CoVid - not much any of us can do about that, but knowing your own average oxygen level and checking it in the morning can be helpful in knowing when to call the doctor.

12% means that it's possible that 1 in 8 or so people in OC are positive for CoVid. But, since it's still the case that people with symptoms are more likely to be tested, it could be lower. But this is why right now we all have to act as if every other person has CoVid, take proper measures, and try to protect ourselves.

I went yesterday. And now you’ve got me worried!

But I’m thinking about the hairdressers who had COVID and worked on people’s hair and no one got ill because everyone wore a mask of some type.

And they were in a more enclosed area. Home Depot is huge with tall ceilings and they had the air on blast.

But I was just watching Anderson Cooper and he had two epidemiologists on who had dire news for us. They said at this rate everyone in the US will soon personally know someone who is very sick with COVID.

They basically said that we all have to protect ourselves now. We can’t rely on the government to help protect anyone or slow it down.

They did say, however, that we can get it back under control. It’s doable.

They also talked about antiviral prophylactics for high risk people exposed to COVID. You go get a test and then get on the antivirals. They think that’s a stop-gap measure until we have effective vaccines.

 

[MimosaMornings]

he took every precaution--- but he got on a plane---hmmmm

Private jet and private pilot.

Helicopters, Private Planes Simply a Necessary Ingredient of NASCAR Life

They use the Concord airport versus the larger Charlotte airport.

 

[SouthAussie]

Yes, we are. The leader in Covid 19 cases.
________________________


https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEEccSehis5iiq3kC51PzXxUqFggEKg4IACoGCAowl6p7MN-zCTCtvxU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en

"The White House claimed on Monday that the US has been “a leader” in the global fight against coronavirus, despite infections nationally now approaching 3m, with 130,000 deaths, and America recently witnessing the highest ever number of new daily cases reported in the world.


With the majority of US states reporting increases in new cases, the White House press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, said at a briefing on Monday afternoon: “I think the world is looking at us as a leader in Covid-19.”
...

I am glad you said that ... because I have wanted to say it for a long time, but refrained from doing so because I am not a US citizen.

Not only covid cases, but also covid deaths.

 

[Trino]

Well, that's just depressing. 9th in the world for deaths per million, too.

It's hard to fathom how we got here.

No. It’s not hard to fathom how we got here.

 

[10ofRods]

International students may need to leave US if their universities transition to online-only learning

The move may affect thousands of foreign students who come to the United States to attend universities or participate in training programs, as well as non-academic or vocational studies.

This is so awful - and some of our best students. This, combined with the worker visa change, means such a further blow to our CoVid Economy.

This is a long-lasting downturn for us. I get that some nations don't want their students paying extra for housing, but the advantage in learning English is amazing. It should be the student's decision.

 

[10ofRods]

The part about the mail interests me too.
I remember early on that I went out the front door to look at a package that had just been delivered and the UPS driver stopped in the driveway and yelled “spray it and leave it” - which I did since I had the spray in my hand and wasn’t planning on touching it for 3 days. I was outside a few days ago when an Amazon driver brought a package and told me not to touch it.
The local news had just reported an outbreak at the local Amazon distribution center.

I would not have a problem identifying the times I have ventured out of the house and into a store/doctor/etc. - my debit card activity would collaborate my notes that I keep in my Covid notebook.

More of us should probably sketch out our contacts, so that *someone* could trace and warn if need be.

You have some really ethical delivery people there. At first, the USPS, UPS, Amazon and FedEx people were wearing masks. But now, I haven't seen one in a week. It's irritating. But we're coping. I'm glad I'm home to observe, I guess.

A lot of people think their postal delivery person and their other delivery people are local - they are often not. They often get up early, from their homes in central, urbanized places (where there's more CoVid) and go to work delivering your mail. Same with grocery store clerks (not that they deliver our mail).

 

[10ofRods]

I went yesterday. And now you’ve got me worried!

But I’m thinking about the hairdressers who had COVID and worked on people’s hair and no one got ill because everyone wore a mask of some type.

And they were in a more enclosed area. Home Depot is huge with tall ceilings and they had the air on blast.

But I was just watching Anderson Cooper and he had two epidemiologists on who had dire news for us. They said at this rate everyone in the US will soon personally know someone who is very sick with COVID.

They basically said that we all have to protect ourselves now. We can’t rely on the government to help protect anyone or slow it down.

They did say, however, that we can get it back under control. It’s doable.

They also talked about antiviral prophylactics for high risk people exposed to COVID. You go get a test and then get on the antivirals. They think that’s a stop-gap measure until we have effective vaccines.

You got this! You know what symptoms are, you know your own body, you can get a test if you really want one.

And yes, there are antivirals that will really help should you test positive. Just don't wait until your blood oxygen is down to 80%!

BTW, if you wore your mask and even half of the others did - given the volume of air in Home Depot, you were in fact fairly safe (not zero though - but pretty close).

 

[MrX]

I'd like to return to the topic of percentage of positive cases.

If everyone in a given population was tested (with perfectly accurate tests) daily and the percentage of positive tests went up, then the virus is clearly spreading.

If, however, the availability of testing is severely curtailed, to the point where it takes up to 10 hours waiting in line, and/or the testing agency reports a three week wait time for results, doesn't it follow that those being tested are not at all representative of the population, as a whole?

If there are 100 tests available, for a population of 100,000, then the percentage positive is meaningless - unless the 100 people tested went because they exhibited symptoms, and only 20% came back positive. Is there any serious data on how accurate the tests are? I've seen multiple reports of athletes testing positive, and then having multiple negative tests within a day or two.

 

[TGIRecovered]

No one knows for more than a day that they are Covid free. If I had a test last week that said I was Covid free, I could be covid positive today, with no symptoms at all. Wearing a mask is a very small courtesy to make in order to protect other people’s health. I’m not about to take a chance that someone else might become deathly ill from a virus that I could well be carrying, even though the virus isn’t killing me. I don’t wear a mask because I’m afraid. I wear a mask because I am a responsible adult who cares about other people.
MOO

 

[Fireflize]

Hundreds of Scientists Say Coronavirus Is Airborne, Ask WHO to Revise Recommendations: NYT
Hundreds of Scientists Say Coronavirus Is Airborne, Ask WHO to Revise Recommendations: NYT

 

[10ofRods]

=

I'd like to return to the topic of percentage of positive cases.

If everyone in a given population was tested (with perfectly accurate tests) daily and the percentage of positive tests went up, then the virus is clearly spreading.

If, however, the availability of testing is severely curtailed, to the point where it takes up to 10 hours waiting in line, and/or the testing agency reports a three week wait time for results, doesn't it follow that those being tested are not at all representative of the population, as a whole?

If there are 100 tests available, for a population of 100,000, then the percentage positive is meaningless - unless the 100 people tested went because they exhibited symptoms, and only 20% came back positive. Is there any serious data on how accurate the tests are? I've seen multiple reports of athletes testing positive, and then having multiple negative tests within a day or two.

If you want to do the work to figure this out for yourself, start by looking at places with NO waits for testing, where testing is free and available 7 days a week for at least 8 hours a day.

Got that done?

Then, use them as your "sample" for that state. If you can find an entire state (oh, say, California) where 90% of people can get tested right away, then start looking at the linear trajectories of their data. Their rates of increase.

Your question is about an ideal situation that has never happened and will never happen. It's like asking me whether you had great-great-great grandparents. Yes, you did - but I can't prove it to you. We have no perfect method of showing that - yet.

In places where testing is severely curtailed, you must investigate further. Why did that occur? Extreme demand (as in some places in Texas, Florida and Arizona?) Then refer to the past case levels and extrapolate using rates from other similarly impacted places (places where tests were not available, then became available, would be good).

There are no places, to my knowledge, where there are only 100 tests available for 100,000 people (the US has test shortages - but not like that~!) If there are people whose local systems are that strained, please please post.

The tests are accurate. If you know anything about statistics, then you know that 99% accuracy of a test is already a very good sample (of whatever is being tested). The fact that you added on this entirely separate variable makes me think you want some specific information about where you live.

With 11 million people tested for Covid worldwide, a 1% error in testing sounds big - but, well, that's just how genes interact with the environment. There are always exceptions, they are rare. Do you know about secondary diagnostic measures? Like X-rays?

Because I don't know any doctors who wouldn't also want an x-ray with someone who has SOB and other acute CoVId symptoms. And the GGO's and their pattern are also diagnostic (and show up even in the asymptomatic, although again - not always).

If you're looking for certainty, medical epidemiology is going to disappoint.

 

[KALI]

Just listened to Dr. Ray Casuaari (sp) on our 640 am, Tim Conway show, podcast will be available tomorrow on iheart radio.
The Henry Ford Medical group just finished a study of over 2500 patients who were given hydroxychloroquine when first admitted to hospital. It improved deaths by 50% in this study. The former Lancet Study that said it was worthless and even dangerous has been debunked.
They "Lancet" admitted they made things up and removed the study.

Does anyone exactly know the present stance of WHO regarding Hydroxychloroquine? I have seen posts saying trials were stopped due to it being harmful and seen others saying it was successsful due to a study in Michigan. Now we have this additional positive statement from a Turkish WHO source. It is all a little confusing. The 1% mortality is pretty impressive from Turkey, stated in that MSM report.

 

[musicaljoke]

This is so awful - and some of our best students. This, combined with the worker visa change, means such a further blow to our CoVid Economy.

This is a long-lasting downturn for us. I get that some nations don't want their students paying extra for housing, but the advantage in learning English is amazing. It should be the student's decision.

No doubt medical students and interns who are currently working their butts off in hospitals all over the country to save lives.

 

[SouthAussie]

Just listened to Dr. Ray Casuaari (sp) on our 640 am, Tim Conway show, podcast will be available tomorrow on iheart radio.
The Henry Ford Medical group just finished a study of over 2500 patients who were given hydroxychloroquine when first admitted to hospital. It improved deaths by 50% in this study. The former Lancet Study that said it was worthless and even dangerous has been debunked.
They "Lancet" admitted they made things up and removed the study.

I wonder if this is the same study that the White House said they would release details about next week.


Next week administration officials plan to promote a new study they say shows promising results on therapeutics, the officials said. They wouldn't describe the study in any further detail because, they said, its disclosure would be "market-moving."
'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirus

 

[10ofRods]

No doubt medical students and interns who are currently working their butts off in hospitals all over the country to save lives.

Yes - quite a lot of them are foreign but their program of study will not be entirely online (obviously). It's the pipeline.

I'm not sure if people realize what an incredible shortage we have, home-grown, of doctors and nurses (and researchers). That's why we're calling people out of retirement to deal with CoVid.

Many medical students are being told they will have practicum in their first year (help out in hospitals).

Where I work, nurses and physical therapists and respiratory techs (we don't do doctors) will all have real world classes - that's been obvious to us since February. But..the general tone of things is making foreign students reconsider whether they want to stay.

I fear that interns and residents will go back home, with their newfound expertise, and help out in their own nations - at less risk to themselves. In places where people actual listen to (even revere) doctors.

 

[10ofRods]

Just listened to Dr. Ray Casuaari (sp) on our 640 am, Tim Conway show, podcast will be available tomorrow on iheart radio.
The Henry Ford Medical group just finished a study of over 2500 patients who were given hydroxychloroquine when first admitted to hospital. It improved deaths by 50% in this study. The former Lancet Study that said it was worthless and even dangerous has been debunked.
They "Lancet" admitted they made things up and removed the study.

This is not a good summary of what happened. But it certainly fits a narrative.

No matter. If clinicians find that something works they'll use it - and if patients ask for something that works (instead of hydrochlorquinone), that's up to the doctor to decide.

Many people are surviving without pharmaceuticals, so aside from the electrical cardiac problems caused (likely short term) by HCQ, I suppose there's no reason not to try it.

However, since electrical issues in the heart are highly correlated with other problems and poor outcomes, not sure I'd risk it myself.

I urge all of you simply to go to scholar.google.com and research this for yourself. Lancet has published on both sides - and it's not the only journal in the world (nor the one that most would turn to for a specific drug recommendation).

Do you have a citation for this particular Henry Ford study??

Or for Lancet admitting they "made things up." A flawed study that has received criticism is not the same thing as "making things up." I think Lancet pushed the article through too quickly - but the underlying issues have been studied over and over.

I'm too tired to start listing all the studies that show the harm of HCQ (there are much more specific journals than Lancet). But you can go to scholar.google.com or to www.reddit.com/r/covid19 (medically curated) to do your own literature review.

Once I saw the high numbers of mortality due to electrical issues in the heart (which is a known side effect of HCQ and the reason that some studies show higher mortality) I realized that it wasn't something I'd want to take unless an actual route of causation occurs. People survive CoVid. A matched control study is needed.

Do you have a citation for that? Because I don't and I would like to add it to my collection.

 

[10ofRods]

I wonder if this is the same study that the White House said they would release details about next week.


Next week administration officials plan to promote a new study they say shows promising results on therapeutics, the officials said. They wouldn't describe the study in any further detail because, they said, its disclosure would be "market-moving."
'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirus

There's nothing in OP about a new study (no citation).

And nothing in your link about HCQ. I'd be interested to learn if any of you live in an area where HCQ is considered SoC.

 

[Deleted member 39678]

Just listened to Dr. Ray Casuaari (sp) on our 640 am, Tim Conway show, podcast will be available tomorrow on iheart radio.
The Henry Ford Medical group just finished a study of over 2500 patients who were given hydroxychloroquine when first admitted to hospital. It improved deaths by 50% in this study. The former Lancet Study that said it was worthless and even dangerous has been debunked.
They "Lancet" admitted they made things up and removed the study.

Henry Ford Health System Study: Hydroxychloroquine Lowers COVID-19 Death Rate

The study analyzed 2,541 patients hospitalized between the system’s six hospital between March 10 and May 2. The study found 13% of the patients treated with hydroxychloroquine died while 26.4% of the patients who did not receive the drug died.

Henry Ford Health System Study: Hydroxychloroquine Lowers COVID-19 Death Rate

 

[SouthAussie]

Yes - quite a lot of them are foreign but their program of study will not be entirely online (obviously). It's the pipeline.

I'm not sure if people realize what an incredible shortage we have, home-grown, of doctors and nurses (and researchers). That's why we're calling people out of retirement to deal with CoVid.

Many medical students are being told they will have practicum in their first year (help out in hospitals).

Where I work, nurses and physical therapists and respiratory techs (we don't do doctors) will all have real world classes - that's been obvious to us since February. But..the general tone of things is making foreign students reconsider whether they want to stay.

I fear that interns and residents will go back home, with their newfound expertise, and help out in their own nations - at less risk to themselves. In places where people actual listen to (even revere) doctors.

My DD, an RN and now CN, moved overseas for 1½ years. While away she also did her public health degree online with an Aussie university. She has now returned here - did the practical sessions for the public health degree, got her degree - and is right back into her profession.

I wonder if the foreign students will be able to do their annual/twice-annual practical hospital sessions in a lump sum later on. Not ideal, as those weeks form part of the learning along the way, but it might assist them to pull it all together before their final exams and their degree is handed to them.

One thing that she said really helped her, she joined a few online groups who were doing the same thing, and they were able to help each other through their studies.

 

[BayouBelle_LA]

Just listened to Dr. Ray Casuaari (sp) on our 640 am, Tim Conway show, podcast will be available tomorrow on iheart radio.
The Henry Ford Medical group just finished a study of over 2500 patients who were given hydroxychloroquine when first admitted to hospital. It improved deaths by 50% in this study. The former Lancet Study that said it was worthless and even dangerous has been debunked.
They "Lancet" admitted they made things up and removed the study.

More about that here.
The Lancet retracts large study on hydroxychloroquine

"A first-year statistics major could tell you about major flaws in the design of the analysis," one expert said.

Study finds hydroxychloroquine treatment associated with lower mortality rate for COVID-19 patients

And remember this? There was much criticism of the President for promoting hydroxychloroquine. Turns out he was right. IMO

Ignoring Expert Opinion, Trump Again Promotes Use of Hydroxychloroquine