Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #69

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  • #401
Ireland is handling this really well, IMO. As is Scotland. I’m following Nicola Sturgeon’s advice, rather than that of the UK PM.
If that 1.2 and 1.8 rate quoted for Ireland is correct then there is something wrong. That is way more than the UK. :-(

"The Imperial College findings for June will be more interesting as they will cover a period of further easing of lockdown restrictions.

In future months, policymakers will have a useful tool as they monitor the path of the virus.

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Lockdown restrictions imposed in March were initially eased in England on 13 May, when people were allowed to spend more time outdoors.

On 15 May, the reproduction number - indicating how many people are infected, on average, by someone with the virus - was estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.

In March, the R number was estimated to be as high as 4.

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The researchers say the work will be used as the basis of further studies to better understand what is happening to infection rates as lockdown eases.

"It's providing that baseline from which we can then assess what's happening particularly to the R value at local and regional levels as we ease out of lockdown," said Prof Paul Elliott of Imperial College London.

A further 30,000 volunteers were recruited for an upscaled study to assess the rate of coronavirus infection in England during the month of June, results of which will be published later.

Plans are currently under way for a second large-scale study, which will use antibody tests to determine how much of the general public has been infected with Covid-19 in the past.

The Imperial College study commissioned by the Department of Health considers data from volunteers in England only. Separate models are used by the devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland."

More at link.

R number 'lower than thought' before lockdown end
 
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  • #402
Interesting:

WaPo: Decades of HIV Research Boosts Covid-19 Vaccine Development - News & Guts Media

All those years of HIV research “taught scientists an enormous amount about the immune system, honed vaccine technologies now being repurposed against the coronavirus and created a worldwide infrastructure of clinical trial networks,” the Post says.

In sharp contrast to researchers’ efforts on HIV, the World Health Organization reports there are already 160 vaccines being developed for the Covid-19 virus — “a pathogen unknown to science” just months ago — and some of the most promising come from “piggybacking” on the decades-long HIV vaccine effort, the Post says.

Yes, and re: HIV, this must also be noted-see Director General’s comments on HIV:

Press briefings
July 7 WHO Press Conference / source

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening.

It took 12 weeks for the world to reach 400 thousand cases of COVID-19.

Over the weekend, there were more than 400 thousand cases across the globe.

There have now been 11.4 million cases of COVID-19 and more than 535,000 lives have been lost.

The outbreak is accelerating and we have clearly not reached the peak of the pandemic.

While the number of deaths appears to have levelled off globally, in reality some countries have made significant progress in reducing the number of deaths, while in other countries deaths are still on the rise.

Where there has been progress in reducing deaths, countries have implemented targeted actions toward the most vulnerable groups, for example those people living in long-term care facilities.

===

Over the past few months, there has been a lot of discussion about the origins of COVID-19.

All preparations have been finalised and WHO experts will be traveling to China this weekend to prepare scientific plans with their Chinese counterparts for identifying the zoonotic source of the disease.

The experts will develop the scope and terms of reference for a WHO-led international mission.

The mission objective is to advance the understanding of animal hosts for COVID-19 and ascertain how the disease jumped between animals and humans.

===

WHO will continue to communicate the latest scientific advances to the media and general public as we have them.

In this vein, WHO continues to work with technology companies to make sure people have access to accurate health information and resources on COVID-19.

Today, I am pleased to announce that we have partnered with Facebook and Praekelt.org to provide WHO’s COVID-19 information in Free Basics and Discover, in a mobile-friendly format.

Through this collaboration, we will reach some of the most vulnerable people who will be able to access lifesaving health information without any data charges in more than 50 countries.

We have launched this product in English.

French, Spanish and Arabic and other languages will follow in the coming weeks.

Furthermore, I want to thank Google for its continued support and dedication to keep the global community safe and informed and for its recently increased ad grant to WHO.

This support enables us to catch trending falsehoods early, respond to them quickly, and give people better access to lifesaving information when they need it most, wherever they are in the world.

===

This pandemic has shown the importance of being able to see each other online while being physically apart.

And 20 years on from the Durban AIDS Conference, a game changing moment in the fight against HIV; leaders, policy makers, scientists, activists and civil society are assembling virtually this week for AIDS 2020.

WHO is deeply concerned about the impact of COVID-19 on the global response to HIV.

A new WHO survey showed access to HIV medicines has been significantly curtailed as a result of the pandemic.

73 countries have reported that they are at risk of stock-outs of antiretroviral medicines (ARVs).

To mitigate the impact of the pandemic on treatment access, WHO recommends all countries prescribe ARVs for longer periods of time.

Up to six months while supply chains for all medicines are fully functioning.

Similarly, shortages of condoms and pre-exposure prophylaxis can prove costly and WHO calls for countries to ensure uninterrupted prevention, testing and treatment services for HIV.

The disruptions in access to life-saving commodities and services come at a critical moment as progress in the global response to HIV stalls.

Over the last two years, numbers of new HIV infections stabilised at 1.7 million annually and there was only a modest reduction in AIDS-related deaths.

More than 25 million people now have access to ARVs but global targets for prevention, testing and treatment are off target.

Progress is stalling because HIV prevention and testing services are not reaching the groups that need them most.

And the lack of optimal HIV medicines with suitable pediatric formulations has been a longstanding barrier to improving health outcomes for children living with HIV.

Going forward, access to services for vulnerable groups must be expanded through stronger community engagement, improved service delivery and tackling stigma and discrimination.

Twenty years ago, Nelson Mandela closed the AIDS conference by saying:

“This is, as I understand it, a gathering of human beings concerned about turning around one of the greatest threats humankind has faced.”

Those words from Madiba echoed through a generation of activists and policy makers alike and I say them today as a message to the world.

More than six months in, the case for national unity and global solidarity is undeniable.

To beat the COVID-19 pandemic and ensure that essential health services for diseases like HIV continue; we cannot afford any divisions.

I will say it again. National unity and global solidarity are more important than ever to defeat a common enemy, a virus that has taken the world hostage.

This is our only road out of this pandemic. I repeat national unity and global solidarity.

I thank you.
 
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  • #403
However, people keep telling me that kids can’t spread the virus and most don’t get it when exposed. RSBM Either way, if kids can spread this, a lot of teachers and/or daycare workers are at grave risk.

It concerns me greatly that this post states "if" kids can spread this. MOO and science says yes, they can and do with the same viral load at outset of the disease. I haven't seen folks posting here that kids can't spread the virus.
 
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  • #404
It is good that we found out about this before it happened, I agree, which is why a free press is crucial to our democracy.

Has Dr. Gottlieb commented on this? I really wonder what he has to say about this, along with the other experts we have been following.

@dixiegirl1035, have any of your star players like Dr. Campbell, etc. commented?

I can’t wait to get on the video trail and see what the buzz is.
 
  • #405
An Aussie media correspondent in the US ...

- Caught the virus, could have been at the Tulsa rally, not sure, started feeling unwell the following day
- Paid for a test the next day ... $200
- The nurse who swabbed her in her car had a mask on, but didn't have the mask covering her nose
- Slept a lot, couldn't concentrate, lost a lot of weight rapidly
- Was promised test results immediately if they were positive, no call
- Called several times, finally got a human and results, was told a dr would check on her condtion, didn't happen
- Was told the Health Dept would call to contact trace, didn't happen
- Isolated for 14 days, then went to get another test, as advised
- Waited for 2 hours, was given another patient's negative result, then finally was re-tested
- The critical point to her story, this has happened 3,000,000 times, not all of those people were as fortunate as her

Days after covering Trump's Tulsa rally, I woke up with all the coronavirus symptoms
 
  • #406
  • #407
I don’t think you understood my post. I also don’t appreciate being called ignorant. We are all normal laypersons here, nobody is a verified Covid-19 expert.

Not to worry Dixiegirl, I have now been driven from this thread and this website. Thanks.

So sorry, I indeed may have misunderstood as I thought I was agreeing with the post! I agree with the post that Many models were wrong. I agree with the post that many models led to hospitals that were being built. There were various models with different input to model and therefore many were wrong. I was saying that some folks don't understand such, in that many of the models were expected to be wrong. I wasn't stating that the post didn't understand such about the reasoning behind so many varied models as I think it showed such. I agree with the post that it is better safe than sorry.
 
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  • #408
Masks and Mickey: Disneyland Paris reopens after four-month closure

Disneyland Paris opened its doors for the first time in four months today with compulsory masks, socially-distanced queues and hundreds of hand-washing stations scattered around the park.

The theme park closed on March 12 as the coronavirus pandemic started to spiral out of control in Europe, but began its 'phased re-opening' today with visitor numbers limited by an online reservation system.

Some rides remain closed while playgrounds and make-up workshops are also out of action.

__

Paris has also re-opened the top floor of the Eiffel Tower today as France tries to revive its £50billion tourism industry after the lockdown.

British tourists can now travel to France again without facing a 14-day quarantine, after the French government lifted the measure in response to the UK easing its own travel restrictions.

They’re probably making a killing on their Disney masks.

(Eta: literally :( )

Eta2: Who takes their kids to Disney right now, safety measures or not. I wouldn’t chance it. No way.
 
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  • #409
Look at the new covid hood they are trialing in Melbourne (in your link). Non-invasive oxygen therapy. Reminds me of the 'oxygen tent' my nephew was in many moons ago when he had croup when he was little.

Really good video (only 3 mins) in the article as well. Showing how they are tackling covid inside a major Sydney hospital.
We are very fortunate. We have been able to learn from what other places have been doing right and wrong, so we can handle things better.

Spending $30,000 on a testing machine has sure been a big boost. Test results ready in one hour!

View attachment 255734

Yes, I remember those bubbles put over the patients in the VERY beginning of the outbreak in China.
 
  • #410
  • #411
RSBM This is something Dr. Mike has also spoken extensively about, the important of “community engagement” being a part of the “comprehensive strategy”, which also includes “a whole of government approach, community approach, finding, testing, tracing, isolating...”

Yes, a consistent message from the top and a need for bringing everyone on board for that. WHO has stressed that from the very beginning. They have never altered in such. F grade in the US for doing such MOO
 
  • #412
Yes, a consistent message from the top and a need for bringing everyone on board for that. WHO has stressed that from the very beginning. They have never altered in such. F grade in the US for doing such MOO

Negative F. Z Minus.
 
  • #413
  • #414
Yeah, as I have mentioned before, this TOTALLY screws up contact tracing.

I believe that both of us took the online tracing course, and yeppers, without the follow up within 3 days.... it's just blowing in the wind.

Our verified medical anthropologist and his/her colleagues on the board are going to be writing articles galore on this for years as to how the U.S. is handling this vs. other countries. Showing how third world countries have done better. SMDH
 
  • #415
I believe that both of us took the online tracing course, and yeppers, without the follow up within 3 days.... it's just blowing in the wind.

Our verified medical anthropologist and his/her colleagues on the board are going to be writing articles galore on this for years as to how the U.S. is handling this vs. other countries. Showing how third world countries have done better. SMDH

I have 4 certifications in contact tracing now, including advanced certification in data collection. Better catch up, Dixie :D
 
  • #416
Has Dr. Gottlieb commented on this? I really wonder what he has to say about this, along with the other experts we have been following.

@dixiegirl1035, have any of your star players like Dr. Campbell, etc. commented?

I can’t wait to get on the video trail and see what the buzz is.

Not yet. (re Dr. Campbell)

Yesterday he spoke of CDC estimates, and didn't touch on this info. I'm sure he will.


Let me know of any science stuff that speaks to such. It's being slammed by science on twitter though.
 
  • #417
We'll know more soon, it didn't go into effect until today, but the HHS did say that they would not share their numbers, effective today. with the public.

I'm not hearing any resistance or concern from any of the 56 models that are used of data being withheld or even delayed.

Reich's Labs Covid model ensemble is used by the CDC and Nick serves on the WH taskforce. Nick has tracked flu for CDC for years.

If one for one minute data would be in jeopardy I feel very confident Nick, FiveThirtyEight and all other scientific sources would be speaking out. Universities and private companies have invested a lot in modeling, if they were not receiving formation in a timely manner or feel the government is withholding information, wouldn't we be hearing from these folks?

I'm not hearing any concern with the change from any of our model sources, on Twitter, Instagram FB or in media from these folks.

Home - COVID 19 forecast hub
Science & Health – FiveThirtyEight

All my opinion and a search from Twitter, instagram, an FB from the top 10 models. I personally know Nicks wife and family, a world renounced environmental activist, this family knows who, how, has the media connections and would expose this is a heart beat. This is not their first rodeo.
 
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  • #418
( @Snoods, don’t go. We need you for Cheryl’s and Andy’s case. 30 year anniversary coming up.)

see @dixiegirl1035 ’s post:
So sorry, I indeed may have misunderstood as I thought I was agreeing with the post! I agree with the post that Many models were wrong. I agree with the post that many models led to hospitals that were being built. There were various models with different input to model and therefore many were wrong. I was saying that some folks don't understand such, in that many of the models were expected to be wrong. I wasn't stating that the post didn't understand such about the reasoning behind so many varied models as I think it showed such. I agree with the post that it is better safe than sorry.
 
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  • #419
We've been posting links all last night and this morning. See Caputo's comments below.

Trump Administration To Hospitals: Don’t Send Covid-19 Coronavirus Data To CDC

This announcement, if you can call a document, quietly appeared on a web site as an announcement.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has issued a frequented asked questions (FAQ) document to hospitals and similar facilities on how they should report their Covid-19-related data. And one thing that’s clear from document. It’s no longer going to be as easy as CDC.

Nope, the document includes the following statement:

“As of July 15,, 2020, hospitals should no longer report the Covid-19 information in this document to the National Healthcare Safety Network site. Please select one of the above methods to use instead.”

The “above methods” are basically four different variations of “send it to HHS instead.”

All of these methods essentially bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Healthcare Safety Network, which has long been the nation’s healthcare-associated infection tracking system. It is not perfect but has been by far the most comprehensive method of tracking infectious disease cases in health care facilities across the country. This network already has a Covid-19 module that includes a dash board where you can see such things as a snapshot of current hospital capacity estimates and the percentage of inpatient beds occupied by Covid-19 patients – Change in 14 Day Period.

So now HHS is telling hospitals to report data such as hospital inpatient bed occupancy, mechanical ventilators in use, number of suspected or confirmed Covid-19 cases, and N95 masks available directly to HHS. Or at least through their states to HHS. But not to CDC.

So with this backdrop, there have been concerns that this new HHS requirement may be a way of controlling the data and information that scientists, public health experts, and the public can access.

____

COVID-19 hospital data will be sent to DC instead of CDC, HHS confirms

Michael Caputo, the assistant secretary for public affairs at the Department of HHS, confirmed the change first reported by The New York Times earlier in the day, saying in a statement that the “new faster and complete data system is what our nation needs to defeat the coronavirus and the CDC, an operating division of HHS, will certainly participate in this streamlined all-of-government response. They will simply no longer control it.”

“The CDC’s old hospital data gathering operation once worked well monitoring hospital information across the country, but it’s an inadequate system today,” Caputo said in the statement.

The Times said hospitals are to begin reporting the data to HHS on Wednesday, noting also that the “database that will receive new information is not open to the public, which could affect the work of scores of researchers, modelers and health officials who rely on C.D.C. data to make projections and crucial decisions.”


Virginia Hospital Association has a dashboard that reports this information publicly on a daily basis.

Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard

From this article it sounds like information being sent to the HHS is all related to hospital capacity and PPE surge needs.

I've been very concerned about data reporting but feel more reassured the hospital data is going to be used as real time, to provide the best planning and response to critical surges. Did we not use this same system of "shifting" critical supplies when NY and NJ had the first massive outbreaks? Testing supplies, staff, field hospitals, PPE were surged, redirected and airlifted directly to these hot spots. It makes sense, to me.

We will see over the next few days if the hospital data is publicly available.

Moo...
 
  • #420
I'm not hearing any resistance or concern from any of the 56 models that are used of data being withheld or even delayed.

Reich's Labs model ensemble is used by the CDC and Nick serves on the WH taskforce. Nick has tracked flu for CDC for years.

If one for one minute data would be in jeopardy I feel very confident Nick, FiveThirtyEight and all other scientific sources would be speaking out. Universities and private companies have invested a lot in modeling, if they were not receiving formation in a timely manner or feel the government is withholding information, wouldn't we be hearing from these folks?

I'm not hearing any concern with the change from any of our model sources, on Twitter, Instagram FB or in media from these folks.

Home - COVID 19 forecast hub
Science & Health – FiveThirtyEight

All my opinion and a search from Twitter, instagram, an FB from the top 10 models. I personally know Nicks wife and family, a world renounced environmental activist, this family knows who, how, has the media connections and would expose this is a heart beat. This is not their first rodeo.

Yes, I think you may be right.

There are some direct quotes in this article.

CDC will apparently have access to the raw data.


On a press call Wednesday, CDC Director Dr. Robert R. Redfield said that the change had been made with the CDC's support.
"We at CDC know that the lifeblood of public health is data," said Redfield, adding that collecting and disseminating data "is our top priority and the reason for the change."
He emphasized: "No one is taking access or data away from the CDC."

Redfield noted that about 1,000 CDC experts will continue to have access to the raw data from hospitals. "This access is the same today as it was yesterday," he said.


And ...

According to HHS Chief Information Officer José Arrieta, HHS Protect has been aggregating data since April, with much of that information coming from the CDC.
"During the pandemic it became clear that we needed a central way to make data visible to first responders," said Arrieta during HHS' Wednesday press call. "The reason we established the ecosystem is so the folks that work for Dr. Redfield ... can log into one system and get access to four billion data elements."


White House to hospitals: Bypass CDC, report COVID-19 data directly to HHS
 
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