Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #72

[neesaki]

He survived cancer after vigorous treatment in 2006 and they are now blaming that.

I'm so saddened to hear about the death of Herman Cain. I was actually angry at him when I heard he had been going out in public while refusing to wear a mask.
When he had cancer back in, I think it was 2006 or 2007 (?) it had metastasized to his liver, very serious business. Chemotherapy takes it's toll on the body's immune system as well, often long term. And then there's his age. He may have had other things going on that contributed to his death, but there's no way that the virus wasn't at least a precipitating or very strong contributing factor. I think he likely would be alive and well if he hadn't contracted Covid .... though all JMO.

My most sincere and heartfelt condolences to his family.

 

[10ofRods]

What about the big study that indicates it could be effective? The article didn’t mention that one.

There is no such study, in my view. I read the pre-print literature every day, and then I track and cut citations from the actual publications.

All of the double blind studies show that HCQ is either ineffective or actually harmful.

The "big study" of many patients was a retrospective study in which there were no controls over what other medications people got, aside from HCQ and Z-pac. In fact, many of the patients got other treatments, including one we know to be effective (steroids) at managing the cytokine storm. Also, some patients got Zinc, which is now thought to be effective and is especially important in the way HCQ works. The antivirals, studied in the same way (retrospectively), as well as interferon are very effective, but not HCQ.

So even in a poorly constructive retrospective study, HCQ barely made a difference. In double blind studies, HCQ is shown not to work, which is why the FDA withdrew its provisional approval: several US double blind studies show exactly what double bind studies in other nations do: no positive outcomes to HCQ.

Compare that, for example, to similar studies done on other drugs/compounds that show they do work. Here's yet another in the very long string of articles about how critically ill Co-Vid patients have markedly lower Vitamin D levels (a known issue in the United States - which would take a few pages here to describe the etiology and incidence):

Vitamin D insufficiency as a potential culprit in critical COVID-19 patients - PubMed

Here are some double blind studies on HCQ:

Hydroxychloroquine is not indicated for COVID-19 under any circumstances

Large study finds hydroxychloroquine Covid-19 treatments linked to greater risk of death and heart arrhythmia (MSM article but has citation to Lancet which is available online)

Here's one of the larger blind studies (they did three groups, so as to study HCQ with and without Z-Pac):

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014

And here's another one (smaller - there are a dozen like it):

A Cluster-Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Prevention of Covid-19 Transmission and Disease

There was enough data for WHO to halt use of it:

WHO halts hydroxychloroquine trials after failure to reduce death

What all this talk about HCQ has done is tout an ineffective, potentially harmful treatment and push the many other candidates out of public view.

One of the most important things a person can do, if they get CoVid, is to be able to converse with doctors about possible treatments. A person who asks for HCQ is going to be given something else, obviously, but it limits real dialogue between doctor and patient. Since many patients who are going into the hospital have the biomarkers associated with high risk for falling into a critical state, it is crucial to be able to communicate while the patient is still conscious and in their right mind (people with low oxygen levels are not full participants in their care from the beginning - so it's important for a family advocate to know what real treatments are).

Yet, here on WS, we long ago stopped discussing treatments, except that HCQ keeps grabbing attention. There are better antivirals on the market (perhaps better than remdesivir), there are other treatments (too many for me to summarize all at once - but @margarita25 has been diligent in posting about nearly all of them).

If we want to revive a discussion on what actually works for CoVid, we need to leave HCQ permanently behind. Here's the explanation on why the FDA has abandoned it (very large double blind/triple blind studies):

https://www.fda.gov/media/138946/download

 

[MrX]

You’ve brought up this “are there ambulances everywhere” argument before. I don’t think you’re understanding how this works.

In none of the nations where COVID19 swamped the systems were there ambulances everywhere or dead bodies on the street. That is not the guide for whether we are experiencing a pandemic or health care catastrophe.

Look at how crowded the hospitals are. How long it takes people to recover.

People don’t need to be “terrified” and staying 20 feet apart for this to be a health catastrophe. It is one. The only officials to assert that this is no big deal are those with massive investment in stocks or a belief in demon semen.

I'm sure we all saw the scenes from Italy, and the videos from NYC where the only sound was sirens. I admit that I think a big part of changing attitudes, out here, was when AZ, if it was a country, would have been the worst place on Earth. I understand exactly how the numbers work, but things were being presented in much more strikingly apocalyptic ways.

Ultimately I'm still stuck on what I can only call a disconnect. There are pictures from all over the world - bar districts, rallys, beaches, churches and even the concert in the Hamptons that was on the news the other day. People of every background are seen congregating in large numbers whenever and where ever possible. Out here it was easy to point the finger at young people who were packing night clubs and gyms, but this seems to be much broader and deeper issue.

 

[Tillicum]

Who makes up the board? Are they doctors or pharmacists?

All are professional Pharmacists except one public member. State of Ohio Board of Pharmacy

 

[Tadpole12]

Albania is nice this time of year.

Looks like our current choices are: Albania, Mexico, Turkey, Dominican Republic, and Tunisia.

It does look beautiful, mystical in the tourist photos on google

Albania Travel Advisory
Dominican Republic Travel Advisory

ETA

Mexico Travel Advisory

Dominican Republic Travel Advisory

 

[Trino]

Too bad about Herman Cain. Maybe Tulas Rally. Perhaps elsewhere.

 

[tresir2012]

You might be interested in this link about current treatments for patients with CoVid published by the BC Centre for Disease Control. The BC Centre for Disease Control is one of the most highly regarded medical centres in the world. I think the article was just updated today and shows a few very current links.

British Columbia has been very successful in their efforts to control CoVid in that province.

Treatments

TY musical I'll take a look.

 

[gitana1]

It is right to expect sound policies and the vaccines for babies are a very good point. Many years ago my first baby was due to have his first vaccine (I think it was whooping cough). They said did he have any allergies as it was not recommended if he had any. Well with a 6 month old baby, its difficult. I knew he had eczema (his asthma had not become apparent at that early age) so I knew he was allergic to something so I explained that. The nurse said if I thought that was due to allergy then it was my decision. So I declined. It was the same for the measles vaccine too. He had all the other vaccines.

Yes. You bring up a very good point. It’s a balance between laws/policies and freedom. It always is. And it’s not wrong to worry about one’s freedom from government control. Or to defend that. I think it’s critical.

So when I mention laws and policies I’m not suggesting goose-stepping someone to the doctor to force a vaccine!

 

[Tadpole12]

the comparisons with Canada and the US are both informative and startling. Keep that border closed!

Yep.
Til end of 2020

Majority of Canadians polled want U.S. border closed until end of 2020: Ipsos


Officials crack down on Alaskan-bound travellers crossing U.S.-Canada border

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/alaska-loophole-us-bc-covid-19-1.5669036


Model shows how many COVID-19 infected travellers could arrive at U.S. border in Ontario

 

[gitana1]

There is no such study, in my view. I read the pre-print literature every day, and then I track and cut citations from the actual publications.

All of the double blind studies show that HCQ is either ineffective or actually harmful.

The "big study" of many patients was a retrospective study in which there were no controls over what other medications people got, aside from HCQ and Z-pac. In fact, many of the patients got other treatments, including one we know to be effective (steroids) at managing the cytokine storm. Also, some patients got Zinc, which is now thought to be effective and is especially important in the way HCQ works. The antivirals, studied in the same way (retrospectively), as well as interferon are very effective, but not HCQ.

So even in a poorly constructive retrospective study, HCQ barely made a difference. In double blind studies, HCQ is shown not to work, which is why the FDA withdrew its provisional approval: several US double blind studies show exactly what double bind studies in other nations do: no positive outcomes to HCQ.

Compare that, for example, to similar studies done on other drugs/compounds that show they do work. Here's yet another in the very long string of articles about how critically ill Co-Vid patients have markedly lower Vitamin D levels (a known issue in the United States - which would take a few pages here to describe the etiology and incidence):

Vitamin D insufficiency as a potential culprit in critical COVID-19 patients - PubMed

Here are some double blind studies on HCQ:

Hydroxychloroquine is not indicated for COVID-19 under any circumstances

Large study finds hydroxychloroquine Covid-19 treatments linked to greater risk of death and heart arrhythmia (MSM article but has citation to Lancet which is available online)

Here's one of the larger blind studies (they did three groups, so as to study HCQ with and without Z-Pac):

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014

And here's another one (smaller - there are a dozen like it):

A Cluster-Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Prevention of Covid-19 Transmission and Disease

There was enough data for WHO to halt use of it:

WHO halts hydroxychloroquine trials after failure to reduce death

What all this talk about HCQ has done is tout an ineffective, potentially harmful treatment and push the many other candidates out of public view.

One of the most important things a person can do, if they get CoVid, is to be able to converse with doctors about possible treatments. A person who asks for HCQ is going to be given something else, obviously, but it limits real dialogue between doctor and patient. Since many patients who are going into the hospital have the biomarkers associated with high risk for falling into a critical state, it is crucial to be able to communicate while the patient is still conscious and in their right mind (people with low oxygen levels are not full participants in their care from the beginning - so it's important for a family advocate to know what real treatments are).

Yet, here on WS, we long ago stopped discussing treatments, except that HCQ keeps grabbing attention. There are better antivirals on the market (perhaps better than remdesivir), there are other treatments (too many for me to summarize all at once - but @margarita25 has been diligent in posting about nearly all of them).

If we want to revive a discussion on what actually works for CoVid, we need to leave HCQ permanently behind. Here's the explanation on why the FDA has abandoned it (very large double blind/triple blind studies):

https://www.fda.gov/media/138946/download

Oh that’s right! I forgot your post about the details of the study. I will read your links with more depth. Thank you for that.

 

[gitana1]

Buddy also had cancer. So healthy dogs are likely in no danger of dying.

Oh. Thanks for that info.

 

[10ofRods]

For those who were interested in forecasts, about a week ago, Planet Earth sat at about 250,000 new cases of Covid per day - so 1 million every 4 days.

Now, we are converging on 300,000 cases per day (known cases). The trend is upwards, so by the end of the weekend, if the new case number is 330,000 per day, it will be 1 million new cases in 3 days.

As it is right now, we will have 1 million new CoVid cases every 3.3 days (globally). At the current case mortality rate

As to the other discussion about deaths, in which some here thought that the US would "never" sustain a rate of about 1000 deaths per day, well our 7 day average is over 1000 deaths per day. Yesterday, it was 1485.

It will probably go up today. It will take a while for any state-enforced measures (such as the renewal of shutdowns in California) to show up in the states. These deaths are from the large rise in cases and yes, they include many younger people than before. The overall mortality rate hasn't slowed yet, but there are still many, many people in the patient group who have had CoVid for 2-3 months.

If in this next week, we average 1500 deaths a day, we will head into August expecting 45,000 Americans to die.

All of those places where life is going on as "normal" will continue to have high case rates and eventually, deaths as a result. When it gets really obviously high (as in Texas, with the refrigerator trucks and the mortuaries overwhelmed), then people do naturally reshape their behavior - by then, they know someone who is very sick or who has died. Or, the state can build an enforcement nexus. For the US, it's all about step one (masks) and not the truly important step of contact tracing (see Australia - they know what that is and they know they need to do it vigorously when the caseload is still low, once a place has as many cases as the US, contact tracing isn't feasible).

Congrats to New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, Delaware, Rhode Island, Maine, Hawaii, New Hampshire, W. Virginia, D.C. and others for getting to the point where contact tracing can work. Some of these states are justifiably nervous about their recent uptick in cases, but they are not behind the 8 ball yet.

 

[Tadpole12]

Coronavirus cases hit 17 million worldwide after setting new single-day record

ETA

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[gitana1]

I'm sure we all saw the scenes from Italy, and the videos from NYC where the only sound was sirens. I admit that I think a big part of changing attitudes, out here, was when AZ, if it was a country, would have been the worst place on Earth. I understand exactly how the numbers work, but things were being presented in much more strikingly apocalyptic ways.

Ultimately I'm still stuck on what I can only call a disconnect. There are pictures from all over the world - bar districts, rallys, beaches, churches and even the concert in the Hamptons that was on the news the other day. People of every background are seen congregating in large numbers whenever and where ever possible. Out here it was easy to point the finger at young people who were packing night clubs and gyms, but this seems to be much broader and deeper issue.

No. I don’t remember such videos. I remember videos showing all the people on ventilators. And trucks with bodies because there was no room at the morgue.

I also understand density. When people are more closely packed together it is easier to see the impact of disease spread because health care facilities tend to be centralized and with more people in an area, infections are concentrated (not increased, just more visible).

In suburbs, people are spread out. So are health care centers, morgues. You can have the very same infection rates but the psychological impact of two people in a neighborhood of 200 homes dying of COVID compared to 2 people dying of COVID in an apartment of 200 units, is very different.

 

[gitana1]

All are professional Pharmacists except one public member. State of Ohio Board of Pharmacy

I would rather have the decision about medication be made by doctors.

 

[musicaljoke]

What are things like out in public? Are people terrified and staying 20 feet apart, or are they going about like everything is normal? Are there ambulances everywhere? In AZ we were in the national (and international) spotlight for a while, but everything seemed very normal around town. About the only reminder that anything is different is that at least once, in every parking lot, I hear someone saying "oh, <blank>, I forgot a mask," as they trudge back their vehicle. It's a very strange disconnect between what I read and what I see, and wonder if it's like that everywhere.

I'm in N. Ontario. We haven't had any cases since March. People are wearing masks and observing social distancing of at least one hockey stick apart. People are even parking their cars farther apart than before. There are no more attempts to be as close to the door as possible. Instead, cars are spaced out evenly throughout the parking lots.

Stores have portable handwashing stations at the doors, and folks are using them. They wait patiently in line outside at the bank and post office, where only one person is allowed inside at a time. The hospital waiting room that used to have 20 chairs now has 4, and they are managing to have only one person in there at a time.

People are concerned about the future, especially with so many unknowns surrounding schools reopening.

The local town council met in person once, and decided to return to zoom meetings for the next few months. Hardly any of the churches have reopened yet and the couple that did, just allow a few locals to come in.

Although it's an anxious time, people seemed to have slowed down. They're even driving slower.

An interesting note from our annual hazardous waste collection day. There was an unprecedented amount of motor oil brought to the collection. Gallons and gallons of the stuff, so much that there were no more containers to hold it all. People were changing their oil during the lockdown.

 

[10ofRods]

Oh that’s right! I forgot your post about the details of the study. I will read your links with more depth. Thank you for that.

No problem. Since remdesivir is now only available through a good relationship with the Federal Government (IOW, while it was invented in California - we don't have much of it), there's good news about several other anti-virals and third phase of clinical trials going on, regarding the effectiveness of zinc as well:

New Antiviral Drugs for Treatment of COVID-19 - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov

Dexmethasone has been a game changer. So, for those of us worried about getting CoVid or who are at higher risk for severe CoVid if we get it, it's good to be able to tell a doctor whether you have allergies to steroids (unlikely).

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2021436

Me, I'd want heparin (past history of blood clotting already), one of the above anti-virals and the steroid (plus zinc and intravenous Vitamin C seems to be viable for some). If I were to be put into the hospital, that is.

If everyone here started Vitamin D supplementation in March (at 6000-10000 IU), by now no one should be particularly deficient in it. Or at least, blood levels should not be practically on empty. It can take up to a year to get to high normal levels of Vitamin D via supplementation, so we all need to keep it up (forever, perhaps lowering the dose over time, but BMI is a factor too, so be sure to take enough for your size; a 200 pound person should take 10,000IU according to one Vitamin D researcher).

The best thing to do, of course, is to avoid getting it in the first place, if you're over 50-55.

 

[MrX]

I'm in N. Ontario. We haven't had any cases since March. People are wearing masks and observing social distancing of at least one hockey stick apart. People are even parking their cars farther apart than before. There are no more attempts to be as close to the door as possible. Instead, cars are spaced out evenly throughout the parking lots.

Stores have portable handwashing stations at the doors, and folks are using them. They wait patiently in line outside at the bank and post office, where only one person is allowed inside at a time. The hospital waiting room that used to have 20 chairs now has 4, and they are managing to have only one person in there at a time.

People are concerned about the future, especially with so many unknowns surrounding schools reopening.

The local town council met in person once, and decided to return to zoom meetings for the next few months. Hardly any of the churches have reopened yet and the couple that did, just allow a few locals to come in.

Although it's an anxious time, people seemed to have slowed down. They're even driving slower.

An interesting note from our annual hazardous waste collection day. There was an unprecedented amount of motor oil brought to the collection. Gallons and gallons of the stuff, so much that there were no more containers to hold it all. People were changing their oil during the lockdown.

That's interesting about cars spaced in parking lots. I haven't seen that.

 

[neesaki]

No problem. Since remdesivir is now only available through a good relationship with the Federal Government (IOW, while it was invented in California - we don't have much of it), there's good news about several other anti-virals and third phase of clinical trials going on, regarding the effectiveness of zinc as well:

New Antiviral Drugs for Treatment of COVID-19 - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov

Dexmethasone has been a game changer. So, for those of us worried about getting CoVid or who are at higher risk for severe CoVid if we get it, it's good to be able to tell a doctor whether you have allergies to steroids (unlikely).

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2021436

Me, I'd want heparin (past history of blood clotting already), one of the above anti-virals and the steroid (plus zinc and intravenous Vitamin C seems to be viable for some). If I were to be put into the hospital, that is.

If everyone here started Vitamin D supplementation in March (at 6000-10000 IU), by now no one should be particularly deficient in it. Or at least, blood levels should not be practically on empty. It can take up to a year to get to high normal levels of Vitamin D via supplementation, so we all need to keep it up (forever, perhaps lowering the dose over time, but BMI is a factor too, so be sure to take enough for your size; a 200 pound person should take 10,000IU according to one Vitamin D researcher).

The best thing to do, of course, is to avoid getting it in the first place, if you're over 50-55.

Do you have a link about the Vitamin D supplementation? I take 5000iu daily of D3. But would like to read up on it. TIA

 

[Bravo]

You have done well musical in Northern Ont. We were down to 1 case about 3 weeks ago. Now we are up to 54 with 4 in Hospital- SW Ontario. They do need to keep the border closed IMO. Those crossing by Ambassador Bridge into Canada land in Windsor-Essex which is a hot mess right now.