Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #74

[10ofRods]

How do you get the 10% dying figure, out of interest? That would be 25,000 .

That was a hypothetical, hence the use of "even if."

If every single rider was infected (which won't happen), even then, it won't slow down Sturgis next year, is the point. And I agree.

If every single rider was infected, if they were equally distributed across all ages (which they are not, because they have to have driver's licenses, but besides, as I have already reported, there are way, way more older people in the mix - there's an interview from last night from an 88 year old, and there are plenty of 80-somethings in the group, I'd say the average age is about 65 though), we'd expect 6% to die.

Current world average death rate per case is 5% (down 1% from where it sat for 4 months - due to the increased youth of some of the new cases, specifically brought down in age by schools reopening).

However, if the average age is really 70, I suppose the death rate could be 10%. And I"ll add one more fact: if symptoms onset at day 2-3 and are severe and sudden, then there's no option other than the small hospital in Sturgis. I doubt it has a CoVid ward or a CoVid specialist or a stock of dexa or antivirals...therefore, a 10% death rate is not outside the realm of possibility.

But that wasn't the point. The point is that even if thousands of bikers die (they won't) Sturgis won't be affected next year.

That would be the opinion of many who are familiar with Sturgis and its very long tradition (long, at least, for America). It's just an opinion.

However, I do not think there will be 250,000 individual bikees in Sturgis this year.

 

[Bailey38]

I can't find a certain thread in here about WS posters with the Virus? So worried about a poster here that I haven't heard from for almost 2 weeks now. She wasn't feeling well and recovering from chemo/cancer. So please say a prayer for her, very worried.

 

[Simply Southern]

Perhaps businesses need to pay a living wage, then.

Please, respectively and not trying to be rude, just basic math.

Businesses pay for job task. The more education, the higher the wage most cases. Especially in small businesses. Its hard to pay the dish washer 25.00 per hour when selling 3.00 hamburgers. But that dishwasher could go to work in a factory and make more money, but the job is hard labor or requires certain hours or maybe a drug test.

Should we pay 20.00 per hour to our 16 yo old babysitter while we go out to dinner and a movie. Heck, that would be 100.00 for a 5 hour evening, most of us can't afford that and would just stay home.

The only way, I see out of poverty is an education.

Moo...

 

[musicaljoke]

It's more than quarantine. We are experiencing financial devastation, social unrest, riots, rebellions and possible martial law.

It more about surviving what could/may happen than quarantine and protecting their families from physical harm.

Moo....

Oh my. Those are deep fears. These are potential problems that few people are discussing, but I agree that if the US doesn't get CoVid under control soon, or if there isn't a suitable vaccine soon, that there will be serious social unrest. It's just mind-boggling to watch this unfolding in the states. It brings tears. I'm sorry, truly sorry to see this. It didn't need to happen like this.

 

[Simply Southern]

The max unemployment is over $700 a week in New Jersey. Add in an extra $600 and people on unemployment were/are making hella good money.

That's ...

32.50 per hour
1300.00 per week
5200.00 per month
62,400.00 per year


WOW....

 

[tresir2012]

That was a hypothetical, hence the use of "even if."

If every single rider was infected (which won't happen), even then, it won't slow down Sturgis next year, is the point. And I agree.

If every single rider was infected, if they were equally distributed across all ages (which they are not, because they have to have driver's licenses, but besides, as I have already reported, there are way, way more older people in the mix - there's an interview from last night from an 88 year old, and there are plenty of 80-somethings in the group, I'd say the average age is about 65 though), we'd expect 6% to die.

Current world average death rate per case is 5% (down 1% from where it sat for 4 months - due to the increased youth of some of the new cases, specifically brought down in age by schools reopening).

However, if the average age is really 70, I suppose the death rate could be 10%. And I"ll add one more fact: if symptoms onset at day 2-3 and are severe and sudden, then there's no option other than the small hospital in Sturgis. I doubt it has a CoVid ward or a CoVid specialist or a stock of dexa or antivirals...therefore, a 10% death rate is not outside the realm of possibility.

But that wasn't the point. The point is that even if thousands of bikers die (they won't) Sturgis won't be affected next year.

That would be the opinion of many who are familiar with Sturgis and its very long tradition (long, at least, for America). It's just an opinion.

However, I do not think there will be 250,000 individual bikees in Sturgis this year.

I'd still like to know what the OP hypothetical 10% dying is based on as it is so unlikely. Maybe 10% catching it, which would be devastating enough, and 5% dying so 1,250 could die perhaps. Spread over 6-10 states it could be difficult to track anyway. They are offering testing at the rally which could help if the results are speedy and any positives are quarantined. It could also help people get tested quickly whereas normally they could wait 15 days.

(ETA from an earlier link 2019 average age was 54. )

 

[Rocco]

Thank you! I personally don't have a reason to be confident in their numbers, but I appreciate the sourcing.

I have several friends who used to go every year but have stopped now that they're older. Judging by the pictures they posted during that time, the statement seems pretty spot on to me.
Here's a link to the crowd this year. It's only about 11 minutes long. You can judge for yourself what the average age is of the attendees.

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[MimosaMornings]

The max unemployment is over $700 a week in New Jersey. Add in an extra $600 and people on unemployment were/are making hella good money.

I’d be happy with $600 a week!
Being closer to 62 would be good too, but that’s a ways off.
Time to think and reinvent.

 

[10ofRods]

The unemployed should be getting unemployment plus the (now) extra $300-400 per week. Most people's rent does not exceed their disposable income when they're working. I'm baffled as to how rent is not being paid. Jmo

I can only speak to what I've heard on various online platforms, which is that if a place had a rent moratorium and there could be no evictions, tons of people just didn't pay rent.

For example, there were long discussions about this on some RVer forums (use rent money to go travel, how much would it cost, how long a trip could they plan, etc). I know some young people who didn't pay rent (even though they could have) because they didn't have to. They may now face eviction. Some younger people didn't realize what "moratorium" meant and heard it as "we live rent-free for now!"

A friend who works at a local sporting goods store says people have been explicit about spending their rent (or mortgage!) money on tons of fancy camping equipment.

Letters to the editor in a few newspapers show puzzlement when people use their freed-up rent money to put a down payment on a new car.

There have been panicked discussions on reddit when people found out there UI is taxable.

In short, many people thought this was a fine deal: extra money, no rent or mortgage to pay and are now facing eviction and saved nary a dime. The idea was supposed to be that only people who weren't getting UI would use the free rent/mortgage exemption. Even then, most mortgage companies were permitted to either demand the money later or extend the mortgage (let's hope for everyone's sake that the latter is more common).

Tents under L.A. freeways have blossomed in the past month. People in my neighborhood have gotten their RV's out of storage and parked them on the street (not legal but I don't think there's enforcement right now - and I don't think most of us would call them in). Relatives are living there. Mostly CA license plates, but some out of state people living in campers on stilts on a driveway or in RV's right on the street (tons and tons more cars in my neighborhood than usual). Moving vans bringing belongings of adult children back home...

 

[musicaljoke]

Please, respectively and not trying to be rude, just basic math.

Businesses pay for job task. The more education, the higher the wage most cases. Especially in small businesses. Its hard to pay the dish washer 25.00 per hour when selling 3.00 hamburgers. But that dishwasher could go to work in a factory and make more money, but the job is hard labor or requires certain hours or maybe a drug test.

Should we pay 20.00 per hour to our 16 yo old babysitter while we go out to dinner and a movie. Heck, that would be 100.00 for a 5 hour evening, most of us can't afford that and would just stay home.

The only way, I see out of poverty is an education.

Moo...

And the way to an education is to get out of poverty. Because of CoVid, Canadian policy makers have looked back to the 1970s, when Canada did some experimentation with a minimum income. The experiment was called ‘Mincome’, and it had been designed by a group of economists who wanted to do something to address rural poverty. Once it was implemented, it had real results: over the four years that the program ended up running in the 1970s, an average family in Dauphin, the rural town selected for the experiment, was guaranteed an annual income of 16,000 Canadian dollars ($11,700 USD, £9,400).

The purpose of the experiment was to see whether a guaranteed basic income for those below the poverty line could improve quality of life..

Back in 1974, Canadian policy makers were inspired by a wave of social reforms, which had been rolled out throughout the 1960s and early 1970s, including the introduction of universal health insurance across Canada in 1972. So, having garnered the support of Canada’s federal and provincial governments, University of Manitoba economist Derek Hum, along with Manitoba civil servants Ron Hikel and Michael Loeb, created a scheme in which Dauphin’s poorest residents could apply to receive monthly cheques to boost their existing income.

At the time it was the most ambitious social science experiment ever to take place in Canada. It saw rates of hospitalisations fall, improvements in mental health, and a rise in the number of children completing high school.

In fact, over the course of those four years, students in families that had enrolled in the minimum income experiment were more likely to graduate than students from the city of Winnipeg . In 1976, 100% of the students from Dauphin enrolled for their final year of school.

The article I am quoting is interesting. It's been featured in the BBC news for a while. More here: Canada’s forgotten universal basic income experiment

 

[Knitty]

The max unemployment is over $700 a week in New Jersey. Add in an extra $600 and people on unemployment were/are making hella good money.

The max unemployment in Florida is $275.

 

[Rose in SC]

I can't find a certain thread in here about WS posters with the Virus? So worried about a poster here that I haven't heard from for almost 2 weeks now. She wasn't feeling well and recovering from chemo/cancer. So please say a prayer for her, very worried.

Here's a link to that thread: WS Members/loved ones who have Coronavirus and testing

I had to put it in my Watch List in order to find it each time.

 

[Bailey38]

Here's a link to that thread: WS Members/loved ones who have Coronavirus and testing

I had to put it in my Watch List in order to find it each time.

Thank you Rose! I'll do that.

 

[10ofRods]

I have several friends who used to go every year but have stopped now that they're older. Judging by the pictures they posted during that time, the statement seems pretty spot on to me.
Here's a link to the crowd this year. It's only about 11 minutes long. You can judge for yourself what the average age is of the attendees.

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I strongly suggest watching during the day, as well. The nightlife videos definitely show a lesser number of older people. And, if you can find them, watch the campground videos. Also, pay attention to who leaves (there are two webcams where you can watch) at around dusk. Lots of older people leave before nightlife gets going.

You just don't see the scantily clad girls (much) during the day. And the scantily clad girls are clearly a draw for a different demographic than the older men who appear to be solo on their big bikes.

It's actually not as easy as just watching one film clip. There are also some walk-about videos from the past week, showing side streets - each has a slightly different demographic, but the biggest difference is between day and night.

Your 11 minute video is definitely data-searching and confirms what you say - but it's not enough to establish age of participants over all. Sunday was actually different than Saturday (I watch and rewatch and am part of a group who did this for the first 3 days of Sturgis).

It's not a young crowd at all. And also pay attention to the morbidity angle, that's interesting too.

 

[dmac55]

I can't find a certain thread in here about WS posters with the Virus? So worried about a poster here that I haven't heard from for almost 2 weeks now. She wasn't feeling well and recovering from chemo/cancer. So please say a prayer for her, very worried.

WS Members/loved ones who have Coronavirus and testing
WS Members/loved ones who have Coronavirus and testing

 

[Simply Southern]

Not necessarily.
In Executive Actions, Trump Extends Some Unemployment Benefits, Defers Payroll Taxes
How long the program actually lasts, though, may depend on how high unemployment remains. Under the executive action, the supplemental weekly unemployment benefits would be available for eligible unemployed Americans through the week ending Sunday, December 6, 2020, or until the balance of the Department of Homeland Security’s Disaster Relief Fund falls to $25 billion (from roughly $70 billion), whichever occurs first.
Payroll taxes fund Medicare and Social Security, and this deferral won't do anything to help the millions of Americans currently unemployed.


This is NOT going to work.
States can count their existing payments toward their $100 match of unemployment benefits under the plan announced by President Donald Trump on Saturday, according to a Department of Labor guidance obtained by CNN.
n Sunday, the Department of Labor offered another option: States can count their existing weekly unemployment payments as their cost share requirement.
"This option requires no new expenditures of state funds beyond what the state would already be paying out from state funds in regular unemployment compensation benefits," the email said.
Unemployment benefits: Jobless may only see $300 federal boost under new Labor Department guidance - CNNPolitics

Virginia has over a billion of CARES money left. I did the math at 100.00 state contribution and 364,309 unemployed @ 100.00 each week that's roughly 36 million per week, 146 million per month.

Even if the state didn't chip in the extra 100. per week, that still 688. per week income.

 

[Rocco]

I strongly suggest watching during the day, as well. The nightlife videos definitely show a lesser number of older people. And, if you can find them, watch the campground videos. Also, pay attention to who leaves (there are two webcams where you can watch) at around dusk. Lots of older people leave before nightlife gets going.

You just don't see the scantily clad girls (much) during the day. And the scantily clad girls are clearly a draw for a different demographic than the older men who appear to be solo on their big bikes.

It's actually not as easy as just watching one film clip. There are also some walk-about videos from the past week, showing side streets - each has a slightly different demographic, but the biggest difference is between day and night.

Your 11 minute video is definitely data-searching and confirms what you say - but it's not enough to establish age of participants over all. Sunday was actually different than Saturday (I watch and rewatch and am part of a group who did this for the first 3 days of Sturgis).

It's not a young crowd at all. And also pay attention to the morbidity angle, that's interesting too.

Do you have a clip I can watch of the older people during the day? Thanks.

 

[Bailey38]

WS Members/loved ones who have Coronavirus and testing
WS Members/loved ones who have Coronavirus and testing

Thank you! I have it on watch now, was hoping may be she posted on it but no. Take care!

 

[tresir2012]

Thank you! I have it on watch now, was hoping may be she posted on it but no. Take care!

Have you checked the poster's profile? It should tell you when they were last on the system.

 

[10ofRods]

California needs to work that out, I think. There's lot of things the California schools can do regarding tracing in their system. But we both know that.

If we're funded to do so. Right now, I don't see what any school can do. We are required to follow FERPA, hasn't been suspended, and we don't do testing.

It's supposed to work starting with the testing. But my good friend who works for County Health (and is technically a contact tracer) says they didn't get training until 2 weeks ago and were barred from going into several hotspot situations (for reasons I'd be happy to go into if this weren't a public forum).