Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #76

[tresir2012]

The two accounts are not comparable. Because of the time it can take for symptoms to appear and the way coronavirus cases are tracked in the United States, with multiple health departments in different states, officials may never be able to track the Covid spread that came from Sturges.

We may continue to hear isolated cases, but the sum will likely never be known. What is known, is that the majority of residents from Sturgis did not support the rally.

The cases in NZ have not been fully traced to their origin. Don't see what the number of cases has got to do with whether the residents supported the rally or not? And it was only 60% of about 60% who voted that did not want it anyway. The town council voted unanimously IIRC. It is a holiday destination anyway with all the campgrounds, even without the rally. The whole point of my post is that posters are saying 9 cases in NZ are not terrible, yet 7 cases taken from Sturgis to Nebraska are being discussed as a dreadful occurrence. It's a dychotomy IMO. If it is dreadful then it is dreadful anywhere, not just because of Sturgess.
MOO.

 

[10ofRods]

I thought it could also be done from phone locations?

There's a part of contact tracing that can be aided by phone apps.

But there's a lot more to contact tracing than just using cell phone records. For one thing, a person has to have the contact app on their phone to be alerted that they were in the vicinity of someone who both has the app and now has CoVid.

In the US, not many people have the app. I don't know anyone who does.

So, we have to rely on our memories. A prudent person might be able to figure out where they got CoVid if they learn how to access their Google location data (if they have it), but that will do nothing to alert others who were in the same place.

The app itself doesn't tell anyone where they got CoVid, it just provides contact tracers with a bit more data. We have very few contact tracers here in California.

 

[10ofRods]

Virginia used a VA based software company, utilizing Google technology to develop the first state app.

The concern has been, it automatically notifies the SHD if you report yourself Covid positive and they immediately contact the person.

Has not been a overwhelming response,

Our colleges are tracking on campus movement of students with their chipped ID access cards.

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/covidwise/

How It Works
COVIDWISE uses Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) technology to quickly notify users who have likely been exposed so you can reduce the risk of infection for your friends and family and help Virginia stop the spread.

Good for Virginia! Universities and colleges should really pioneer these tracing apps. It could be a game changer for them (that plus rapid testing). Anyway, that's impressive.

 

[tresir2012]

Typically what they do (and they do this with vaccines as well) is divide people into two groups, age and sex matched, who have similar lifestyles and occupations. So, for example, they divide everyone who works in the CoVid ward into 2 groups.

1 gets HCQ and the other does not. Then the wait begins. If the prior infection rate was about 1 person per 30 testing positive every week (I'm making that up - I have no idea how many negative pressure rooms they have or what PPE they have, etc), then in the HCQ group it should go down (preferably no people at all) and in the untreated group, it should remain at 1 per 30. If the group of employees was only 30 to begin with, and people were getting CoVid at an undesirable rate, then the 15 on HCQ would be able to work for a longer period of time without contracting CoVid (if HCQ actually works). Relying on a small study of this kind is not great science.

The real problem is that people really do change their behavior. Perhaps the HCQ group will be more confident and a bit more relaxed about close interactions with highly infectious patients. Perhaps they will be more confident in their private lives. Usually, there are questionnaires or surveys about this kind of thing, often requiring that participants keep daily diaries of interactions.

The people without the HCQ may likewise be more cautious - but if 2 of them get it within a month or two, and in the HCQ group, zero get it, then the study goes on a bit longer. If after 3-4 months, no one in the HCQ group gets CoVid but half the other group does - well then, they have a nice study to publish.

What usually happens though, is that the participants who didn't get the drug, upon realizing that their companions seem immune, want the drug. If it's really only 15 or even 25 in a group and 2 of them get CoVid in the first month, the placebo group is going to want HCQ.

The solution to some of this is to make absolutely sure that no one knows what drug they're getting (but being medical professionals, they all know how to research what pills look like and they're very likely to figure out whether they have a bottle of HCQ or not).

I thought the whole point of having a placebo is so the patients don't know which they are receiving.

Which is not at all what happened.

https://www.phe.gov/emergency/events/COVID19/investigation-MCM/Pages/remdesivir.aspx

The allocation process for commercially available remdesivir has been updated to ensure we utilize the most current COVID-19 patient data, and that the process accounts for COVID-19 hotspots that may develop in the country. The current process is based on recent cases of COVID-19 in states/territories and helps identify where the outbreak has been most active by highlighting changes in COVID-19 patient data over given periods. It is important to note that hospitals no longer have the requirement of inputting data into the TeleTracking system specifically for remdesivir allocation calculations. As of July 15, 2020, HHS will use information that hospitals already input into the TeleTracking portal on a daily basis along with other data from HHS Protect to determine allocations for each distribution period. It should be noted that the TeleTracking portal is part of the HHS Protect system. HHS no longer requires hospitals to also use CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) for COVID-19 hospital reporting. This does not impact reporting for other conditions through NHSN. (For example, COVID-19 nursing home data will continue to be reported through NHSN.) Access to HHS Protect is available to all state/territorial health departments.

• No separate, remdesivir-specific TeleTracking data request will be sent to hospitals.
  
  
• HHS/ASPR uses information hospitals already input into the TeleTracking portal on a daily basis along with other data from HHS Protect to determine allocations of commercial remdesivir for each distribution period.
  
  
• Once HHS/ASPR notifies health departments of their state or territory’s allocation of remdesivir, health departments determine how much remdesivir hospitals within their respective jurisdictions may purchase based on the state/territory’s allocation.
  
  
• Hospitals identified by their respective state/territorial health department to receive an allocation of remdesivir will coordinate shipping and payment directly with AmerisourceBergen.

Related Resources

• Allocation of Donated Remdesivir by Jurisdiction: May 4 – June 29, 2020
• Allocation of Commercial Remdesivir by Jurisdiction: July 6 - August 30, 2020
• Remdesivir for the Commercial Marketplace (Fact Sheet)
• Frequently Asked Questions about Remdesivir for the Commercial Marketplace

Additional Information

• Allocation of Commercially Available Remdesivir by Jurisdiction: as of July 6 - August 30, 2020 Updated!
• Remdesivir for the Commerical Marketplace Fact Sheet
• Allocation of Donated Remdesivir by Jurisdiction: May 4 – June 29 2020
• Trump Administration Secures New Supplies of Remdesivir for the United States (news release)
  
• Indian Health Service Fact Sheet: Distribution and Use of Remdesivir
• Last Mile User Guide: Shipping Remdesivir from States/Territories/Agencies to Hospitals Updated!
• HHS Announces Shipments of Donated Remdesivir for Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 (press release)
• NIH Clinical Trial Shows Remdesivir Accelerates Recovery from Advanced COVID-19 (press release)
• Remarks by President Trump in Announcement on Remdesivir
• Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Issues Emergency Use Authorization for Potential COVID-19 Treatment
• NIH COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines

(I didn't realise there was so much info on Remdesivir.)

 

[10ofRods]

Yes I believe it's possible, either with apps or just with a snartphone's location services.

However, that would not include whatever personal information might be useful.

Yes, you want to know you went to X restaurant, but you also want to note with whom you ate or talked.

Yes, you want to recall when you went to the store, but you also want to note which friend or neighbor you ran into and had a five minute face to face chat with, as well as the name of your "usual" clerk, if such details are known.

If I were to use my phone for such a purpose, I would definitely augment the phone's data with notes about who I saw or talked to at any length while I was there.

It seems obvious to me that simply being in a store with others isn't considered a high risk by the contact tracers, because we don't see notices being put out saying "if you were in Safeway between 2 and 4 pm on Tuesday you may have been exposed".

It's the people you have longer contacts with that are considered the higher risk. (obviously excepting someone who is actively coughing or sneezing in public).

IMO

I believe the 9 cases are not in Nevada but in Nebraska, the neighboring state to South Dakota.

Yes, the first known Sturgis cases are in Nebraska.

Nevada has its own situation for sure, though.

Here in California, there's no way that contact tracers (few in number, poorly resourced) are finding out everywhere that an infected person went and warning them, even though in theory it is possible.

Nor in Utah or Colorado either (where I know patients personally). My cousin almost certainly got CoVid at work (he just turned 70, no underlying conditions except age) but no one ever contacted him about where else he might have been. He went to several places in the days before he became symptomatic.

My friend's brother (the one who was sent home with a court order to stay at home for 14 days) got just that - legal papers and a test result, no one contacted him nor took info about where he had been. He isn't being super-forthcoming about where he thinks he got it, either. That's in Utah. He is 60, no underlying conditions, has a moderate case of CoVid and lives an highly social life. He's been *lots* of places and been close to lots of people right before getting CV.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: R number rises in UK to between 0.9 and 1.1

The R number in the UK has risen to between 0.9 and 1.1, the government's scientific advisory group (SAGE) says.

The R number is a measure of how many people on average each infected person transmits the virus to.

It is an increase on an estimated range of 0.8-1.0 last week, compared with 0.8-0.9 a fortnight ago.

 

[24Roses]

Iowa news today & yesterday: As of 10:30-11:00 a.m. today, we had 878 (IMO)-879 new confirmed cases for a total of 54,709 confirmed cases of which 42,843 have recovered (IMO +519). 5 more had passed away for a total of 1,017. 879 COVID-19 cases, 5 deaths reported in Iowa Friday
Iowa COVID-19 Information
UI students worried about starting face-to-face learning
Iowa medical director was aware for weeks of COVID data flaw
Sept. 3 hearing set in case challenging Iowa schools mandate
U of I apologizes for student's experience after testing positive for COVID-19
Document recommended that Iowa issue mask mandate, close bars
Nurse who uncovered data glitch calls for transparency
Multiple COVID-19 cases linked to Knoxville Raceway event last weekend

 

[JerseyGirl]

Nebraska links seven coronavirus cases to Sturgis, SD, motorcycle rally

 

[JerseyGirl]

CDC's ensemble forecast now projects nearly 195,000 US coronavirus deaths by September

An ensemble forecast published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now projects nearly 195,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by Sept. 12.

The new projections, published Friday, forecast 194,778 deaths by Sept. 12, with a possible range of 187,373 to 204,684 deaths.

“State- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week will likely increase over the next four weeks in Minnesota and may decrease in 13 jurisdictions. Those with the greatest likelihood of a decrease over the next four weeks include Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina,” the CDC says on its forecasting website.

Unlike some individual models, the CDC’s ensemble forecast only offers projections about a month into the future. The previous ensemble forecast, published Aug. 13, projected roughly 189,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by Sept. 5.

At least 174,255 people have already died from Covid-19 in the United States, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Pence says there will be a vaccine "before the end of this year." Here's what we know.

"We have many companies — several companies — that are in phase 3 clinical trials for a vaccine that I believe we'll have before the end of this year," he said this morning.

Pence added: "But we're also not waiting on that. We're actually manufacturing millions of doses of a vaccine so the moment the FDA says it's safe and effective, we'll be able to distribute it to the American people."

Some background: President Trump has suggested that a vaccine for the coronavirus could be ready before Election Day this year. And while it's possible that a vaccine could be approved by the Food and Drug Administration at some point in November, there is obviously no firm timeline or guarantee that one will be.

And even when one is approved, it will likely still be many months before it's widely available across the US. In interviews last month, Dr. Anthony Fauci made clear that while a vaccine could be approved by or possibly before November, it would likely not be available widely until "several months" into 2021.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Irish minister resigns after Covid-19 rules breach

Dara Calleary, Ireland’s Minister for agriculture, food and the marine, resigned on Friday amid a breach of Covid-19 restrictions, after he attended a golf dinner with 80 other people on Wednesday.

In a radio interview this week, Calleary had urged Irish people to reduce their social contacts, insisting on the fact that “everyone had a role to play in this.”

“His attendance at this event was wrong and an error of judgement on his part,” Irish leader Micheál Martin said in a statement. “People all over the country have made very difficult, personal sacrifices in their family lives and in their businesses to comply with Covid regulations."

Ireland significantly tightened key restrictions this week after a spike in cases.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Defying Bolsonaro, Brazilian congress orders mandatory mask wearing

Brazil's congress voted for mandatory mask wearing in closed spaces, such as commercial establishments, offices, schools and places of worship, overturning President Jair Bolsonaro's previous veto.

 

[Sillybilly]

$2,000 fines to be issued to enforce B.C. COVID-19 public health rules

Anyone caught violating B.C.’s public health rules, especially the order on large gatherings, will now face fines of up to $2,000.

[...]

“Now more than ever, this is a time to be selfless. This is time to tell friends and family that breaking the rules will hurt us all,” Farnworth said.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Untested COVID-19 vaccine, Sputnik V, begins 40,000-person trial next week

After hastily granting approval last week for a COVID-19 vaccine that has yet to enter rigorous clinical trials, Russia has now announced plans to give the vaccine to more than 40,000 volunteers in a trial that starts next week.

 

[weepingangel]

Watch: Boston Schools Will Begin Year Remotely, Mayor Walsh Announces

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: No deaths and 79 new cases confirmed in Ireland

HEALTH OFFICIALS HAVE confirmed no further deaths of patients diagnosed with Covid-19 and 79 new confirmed cases of the disease in Ireland.

Of today’s cases, 21 cases have been identified as community transmission.

43 cases are in Dublin, 9 in Kildare, 6 in Cork, 6 in Tipperary and the remaining 15 cases are in Clare, Donegal, Laois, Limerick, Louth, Mayo, Roscommon, Wexford and Wicklow.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Restrictions to remain in place in Kildare for two weeks but lifted for Laois and Offaly

THE GOVERNMENT HAS said the regional lockdown restrictions are to remain in place for Kildare for two weeks, but will be lifted as planned for Laois and Offaly.

The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) met yesterday to discuss the progress made over the last two weeks. Recommendations made by health officials were discussed by Cabinet today.

This evening, Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly said that schools in Kildare will still re-open as planned.

 

[tresir2012]

Pence says there will be a vaccine "before the end of this year." Here's what we know.

"We have many companies — several companies — that are in phase 3 clinical trials for a vaccine that I believe we'll have before the end of this year," he said this morning.

Pence added: "But we're also not waiting on that. We're actually manufacturing millions of doses of a vaccine so the moment the FDA says it's safe and effective, we'll be able to distribute it to the American people."

Some background: President Trump has suggested that a vaccine for the coronavirus could be ready before Election Day this year. And while it's possible that a vaccine could be approved by the Food and Drug Administration at some point in November, there is obviously no firm timeline or guarantee that one will be.

And even when one is approved, it will likely still be many months before it's widely available across the US. In interviews last month, Dr. Anthony Fauci made clear that while a vaccine could be approved by or possibly before November, it would likely not be available widely until "several months" into 2021.

That would be great if they had it before November. Is it possible the trials could be finished and results out by the next two months in order to distribute immediately?

 

[ilovewings]

Nebraska links seven coronavirus cases to Sturgis, SD, motorcycle rally

So nice of those Sturgis folks to take the virus back home to who knows how many
people all over the country. !!!!! i guess they believe in sharing

 

[Sillybilly]

"We have many companies — several companies — that are in phase 3 clinical trials for a vaccine that I believe we'll have before the end of this year," he said this morning.

Pence added: "But we're also not waiting on that. We're actually manufacturing millions of doses of a vaccine so the moment the FDA says it's safe and effective, we'll be able to distribute it to the American people."

<rsbm>

Several companies in phase 3 ? So which one(s) are they putting the $$ into the manufacturing process for millions of doses? Surely that's a big gamble on vaccines that may not end up being approved by the FDA.