Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #76

[tresir2012]

My problem with these kinds of main stream articles is, firstly, that the pandemic is not over. Not in Sweden, not anywhere.

So how can anyone claim something worked or didn't work, or compare statistics between countries, when everything is going to change, there will most likely be another surge this fall and more after that. That's like calling the outcome of a baseball game after the first inning.

Secondly, if you actually read the article, no one in Sweden is talking about having achieved herd immunity. That idea is inserted by whoever is writing these silly articles.

"Achieving herd immunity was one of Tegnell’s original aims – but antibody surveys suggest only about 20 per cent of people in Stockholm have been infected, similar to levels in London and New York. That is far short of near the 70 per cent level estimated to be needed".

Is Sweden's coronavirus strategy a cautionary tale or a success story?
(Even this article makes the same mistake of talking about the pandemic as though it's over).

The Swedish experts are explaining that the strategy was to encourage Swedes to take personal responsibility, rather than imposing rules that invite some to become defiant. This is precisely because the Swedish epidemiologist recognized this was going to be a long term pandemic, not a 2 month inconvenience.

“Voluntary restrictions work as well as legal ones,” says the architect of Sweden’s strategy, chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

"This appears to be true, in Sweden at least. The measures did work nearly as well in getting people to change their behaviour."

Sweden is a very unique country, with a highly educated, responsible, cohesive, respectful society. Swedes don't gather by by the thousands in motorcycle rallies etc, they don't get into fisticuffs over someone wearing a mask or not.

EMC Rallies

They do normally have motorbike rallies but this year was cancelled. Probably due to the 50 limit on gatherings.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Yep, Alaska is first. It helps to only have only 731,000 people and lots of tests.

I really think the number of unique individuals tested needs to be a part of these statistics.

I suspect a select group of people -- healthcare workers and possibly teachers, pilots, etc -- are getting repeat tests, perhaps as often as weekly.

Of course each test only reflects that moment in time, which is why repeat tests make sense and are essential for those arenas, but reporting "tests per million population" doesn't make much sense without an idea of how many of those tests are repeats for high risk individuals. I seriously doubt a third of all Californians have actually been tested.

IMO

 

[Cool Cats]

American to spray some planes with EPA-approved 'long-lasting' COVID-19 disinfectant


20 hrs ago

American Airlines is preparing to spray planes flying in and out of Texas with the first "long-lasting" disinfectant product approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to kill the SARS-CoV2 virus on surfaces between routine cleanings.

© American Airlines/Vimeo Surfacewise2 is demonstrated in a promotional video released by American Airlines.

The EPA granted emergency authorization for the Allied BioScience product, Surfacewise 2, on Monday. It is effective against the SARS-CoV2 virus for up to 7 days after a single application, according to testing by the agency. Texas had requested the authorization.

Allied BioScience makes similar sprays for healthcare settings and has been working to get it approved for COVID-19 since early in the pandemic.

 

[10ofRods]

There are some people who can't give plasma, I am not sure what the reasons are, but I have been "rejected" for plasma donation.

Why some people get coronavirus symptoms, but still test negative

This article is interesting, and my experience recently has made me wonder what validity these Covid-19 tests have...

No test is perfect (although CV may have some unique properties as yet undocumented). If there's a 1% test fail rate (including human error in swabbing), and we have tested 77 million in the US - so we'd expect about 770,000 false results. This is simply the world of virology and still a pretty good test.

Of course, it's also possible to have another virus altogether...we're only testing for CoVid.

 

[musicaljoke]

We are using convalescent plasma for our covid patients. But I believe it is all done by (free) donation, as are all of our blood donations. The Red Cross have been requesting 'covid' plasma donations to use for covid convalescent purposes.

I know that plasma donors can donate every two or three weeks without affecting their own health. Blood donors need to wait for about 12 weeks before donating again.


"Convalescent plasma donations from someone who has recovered from COVID-19 may help boost the immunity of patients still battling the disease.
We’re incredibly proud to be part of this initiative, but we need help from people who have been diagnosed with and have recovered from COVID-19.
Donating plasma is a simple, powerful act that could help a patient struggling to fight the disease. It’s a real opportunity for people who have battled COVID-19 to become part of a potential solution."
COVID-19 convalescent plasma

The Canadian Blood Services also began collecting plasma from recovered CoVid donors back in April. I think they were pretty confident that it would be a successful treatment.

First COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma Donor

 

[weepingangel]

I believe there was a conference of Emergency Medicine doctors ? In New York City during the early days. Don’t recall Reading anything about spreading From that one. Biogen was feb 24ish? I think

Wow. A lot of contact tracing there - and what a statistic!

I don't think the attendees were aware of the virus at that time - I wouldn't have known about it if I didn't have colleague who is so well-informed about pandemics in Asia and reads Asian news. There was little publicity and the CDC was taking a watch and wait, "it's not here yet" stance.

I'm sure it played into NYC's spread as well.

 

[weepingangel]

Over 200 suspensions issued so for unsafe gatherings at one university
more at link
Ohio State University has issued 228 interim suspensions for unsafe gatherings so far, as the school cracks down on social gatherings of more than 10 people.

As colleges begin classes this month, monitoring social gatherings and parties is now a priority in preventing the spread of the coronavirus. OSU students must wear a face mask, practice physical distancing and may not host or attend gatherings of more than 10 people.

 

[musicaljoke]

I am aware of what occurred because of the Biogen conference, but I am unclear if the attendees were aware of the virus at that point- do you know if they were? I can't imagine these sophisticated medical people would have gone to a conference with 100s of people if they knew there was coronavirus

The Biogen conference was Feb 26-27. They would most definitely have been aware of the potential for viral spread. I was at the national veterinary medical conference in Toronto in late January, and conference members were alert, and even on edge about the potential problem already at that time. The first diagnosed case in Toronto was in late January during the medical conference. People were taking it seriously, but there was so little known about the new virus that we didn't understand what needed to be done, and precious time was wasted in attempts to stop the spread.

 

[slowpoke]

There are some people who can't give plasma, I am not sure what the reasons are, but I have been "rejected" for plasma donation.

Why some people get coronavirus symptoms, but still test negative

This article is interesting, and my experience recently has made me wonder what validity these Covid-19 tests have...

mickey2942, I can’t seem to view the full article due to paywall. Can you or someone else summarize? And I guess I missed what recent experience you speak of; would you care to repeat?

I heard an interesting story where a healthcare worker tested negative for covid-19 for four months, then took (I don’t know why) the antibody test, whereupon the result was positive, to her shock and surprise. She consulted with several doctors to ask how this could be, and was told the positive antibody result could be due to her having a cold or flu in the past, and not covid.

I didn’t realize that, so I looked and found this on the FDA site, which apparently would confirm what the drs told her:

False positive tests may occur:
Because antibody tests may detect coronaviruses other than SARS-CoV-2, such as those that cause the common cold.

Antibody (Serology) Testing for COVID-19

This is all so complex, isn’t it...

 

[MrX]

My problem with these kinds of main stream articles is, firstly, that the pandemic is not over. Not in Sweden, not anywhere.

So how can anyone claim something worked or didn't work, or compare statistics between countries, when everything is going to change, there will most likely be another surge this fall and more after that. That's like calling the outcome of a baseball game after the first inning.

Secondly, if you actually read the article, no one in Sweden is talking about having achieved herd immunity. That idea is inserted by whoever is writing these silly articles.

"Achieving herd immunity was one of Tegnell’s original aims – but antibody surveys suggest only about 20 per cent of people in Stockholm have been infected, similar to levels in London and New York. That is far short of near the 70 per cent level estimated to be needed".

Is Sweden's coronavirus strategy a cautionary tale or a success story?
(Even this article makes the same mistake of talking about the pandemic as though it's over).

The Swedish experts are explaining that the strategy was to encourage Swedes to take personal responsibility, rather than imposing rules that invite some to become defiant. This is precisely because the Swedish epidemiologist recognized this was going to be a long term pandemic, not a 2 month inconvenience.

“Voluntary restrictions work as well as legal ones,” says the architect of Sweden’s strategy, chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

"This appears to be true, in Sweden at least. The measures did work nearly as well in getting people to change their behaviour."

Sweden is a very unique country, with a highly educated, responsible, cohesive, respectful society. Swedes don't gather by by the thousands in motorcycle rallies etc, they don't get into fisticuffs over someone wearing a mask or not.

You make excellent points, regarding this, and most articles about Sweden's approach.

I think talking about this as if it's "over" is valid, if one considers people who won't outlive the pandemic. If someone's remaining years will all be spent in a world of Covid restrictions, there can be a significant quality of life difference between sitting at a cafe in Stockholm and being repeatedly locked down in other places.

 

[Simply Southern]

Dr. Birx: If it’s safe to go into Starbucks in Mississippi, it’s safe to wait in line at the polls

In an interview with CBN News over the weekend, Dr. Birx discussed topics ranging from the safety of in-door church services, coronavirus vaccinations and the act of voting in November.

On the issue of voting at the polls, Dr. Birx said that it has been safe for her to go into Starbucks and pick up her order. “If I can go into Starbucks in the middle of Texas and Alabama and Mississippi that have very high [coronavirus] case rates, then I can’t say that it would be different waiting in line in the polls.”

 

[Simply Southern]

Coronavirus Task Force Dr. Birx visits Missouri to encourage mask wearing, social distancing

Coronavirus Task Force Dr. Birx visits Missouri to encourage mask wearing, social distancing

ST. LOUIS (KMOV.com) – Missouri Gov. Mike Parson met with coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx Tuesday.

Missouri is one of several states Dr. Birx is visiting as she has been urging states in the Midwest to do more to stop the spread of COVID-19.

Dr. Birx participated in a roundtable discussion with cabinet members and community and state health officials at the Governor's Mansion.

"We need every American and everybody in Missouri to be wearing a mask and socially distancing," said Dr. Birx in a media briefing following the discussion.

In visits all over the country, Dr. Birx stressed the importance of not gathering with others even if you don't believe your family members or neighbors could have the virus.

"I can tell you across the United States that they do. And it doesn't matter if you're in a rural area or an urban area, they do and they don't know they're affected, and then spreading the virus to others," Birx said.

Birx reminded that the State of Missouri has counties with under 5 percent test positivity, unlike in Alabama, Mississippi in the parishes of Louisiana that have over 95 percent of their counties impacted.

 

[anneg]

FDA 'Grossly Misrepresented' Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say
Katie Thomas and Sheri Fink
The New York Times•August 25, 2020

FDA 'Grossly Misrepresented' Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say
(BBM)
At a news conference Sunday announcing the emergency approval of blood plasma for hospitalized COVID-19 patients, President Donald Trump and two of his top health officials cited the same statistic: that the treatment had reduced deaths by 35%.

Trump called it a “tremendous” number. His health and human services secretary, Alex Azar, a former pharmaceutical executive, said, “I don’t want you to gloss over this number.” And Dr. Stephen M. Hahn, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said 35 out of 100 COVID-19 patients “would have been saved because of the administration of plasma.”

But scientists were taken aback by the way the administration framed this data, which appeared to have been calculated based on a small subgroup of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in a Mayo Clinic study: those who were under 80 years old, not on ventilators and received plasma known to contain high levels of virus-fighting antibodies within three days of diagnosis.

What’s more, many experts — including a scientist who worked on the Mayo Clinic study — were bewildered about where the statistic came from. The number was not mentioned in the official authorization letter issued by the agency, nor was it in a 17-page memo written by FDA scientists. It was not in an analysis conducted by the Mayo Clinic that has been frequently cited by the administration.

SNIP

Statisticians and scientists said that Hahn, in saying at the news conference that 35 out of 100 sick COVID-19 patients would have been saved by receiving plasma, appeared to have overstated the benefits.

SNIP

The publicly released data from the Mayo Clinic shows that, among the larger group of more than 35,000 patients, when plasma was given within three day of diagnosis, the death rate was about 22%, compared with 27% when it was given four or more days after diagnosis.

Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research in La Jolla, California, and a longtime expert in clinical trials, said that convalescent plasma has not yet shown the benefit that Hahn described — and that he should issue a correction.

“He needs to come out with that, and until he does, he has no credibility as an FDA commissioner,” Topol said.

More at link.

 

[Simply Southern]

The publicly released data from the Mayo Clinic shows that, among the larger group of more than 35,000 patients, when plasma was given within three day of diagnosis, the death rate was about 22%, compared with 27% when it was given four or more days after diagnosis.

I'll take a risk on a, 78% survival rate any day. Only 22% died , if given in the first three days. Even a 73% survival rate if given on day 4, 27% died, still good odds.

It's impossible to have a controlled study. Not many are going to sign up with the risk of a placebo, when a therapy is running an 78% survival rate. Nope, not me. I want the 78% chance to live.

Moo...

 

[Satchie]

EMC Rallies

They do normally have motorbike rallies but this year was cancelled. Probably due to the 50 limit on gatherings.

If you actually read the story, that isn't a motorbike rally organized and attended primarily by Swedes:

"the annual EMC Rally - a motorcycle rally where Christian motorcycle clubs from all over Europe and beyond gather. The rally takes place the first weekend of August each year and is hosted in different countries by different clubs each year." EMC - European Motorcyclists for Christ

 

[Satchie]

I'll take a risk on a, 78% survival rate any day. Only 22% died , if given in the first three days. Even a 73% survival rate if given on day 4, 27% died, still good odds.

It's impossible to have a controlled study. Not many are going to sign up with the risk of a placebo, when a therapy is running an 78% survival rate. Nope, not me. I want the 78% chance to live.

Moo...

Yes, the study shows there is benefit in using the plasma, that's not being challenged. IMO, the challenge is that the scientific results have been deliberately falsified to the general public, presumably for political purposes.

 

[SouthAussie]

The Canadian Blood Services also began collecting plasma from recovered CoVid donors back in April. I think they were pretty confident that it would be a successful treatment.

First COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma Donor

Apparently, the medical professionals have been using plasma in this way to fight other infections for many, many years. This article says that there is evidence of this stemming back to the 1800s.

It also says that the antibodies in the plasma don't offer any kind of long term protection (as we already know) - but the effect of them can last for 2-3 months, which may be enough to assist a current covid patient with their fight against the virus.

The 'liquid gold' that could give temporary COVID-19 protection

 

[drama_farmer]

FDA chief apologizes for overstating plasma effect on virus

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Face masks in schools: Boris Johnson performs U-turn on advice

Boris Johnson has abandoned advice that pupils should not wear face masks in English secondary schools.

The prime minister performed his latest U-turn in the face of growing pressure from headteachers, teaching unions and medical experts.

Face coverings will be mandatory for children in all schools that lie in areas subject to stricter coronavirus restrictions.

 

[10ofRods]

Covid/School news:

Entire 4th grade class in Mississippi sent to quarantine as school restarts.

One third of UNC-Chapel Hill students test positive for CoVid

University of Alabama reports more than 500 confirmed CoVid cases on campus

13 sixth grade teachers in Indiana are positive for CoVid after school opens, district moving to online

Missouri State tests 473 students this past week; 141 test positive.

USC (University of Southern California) reports alarming increase in Covid cases on campus; moves almost entirely to online