Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #76

[10ofRods]

Boris Johnson may resign in 2021 due to lingering ill-health from CoVid

 

[Yvettea]

COVID-19 cases in the US decline for the fifth straight week and average daily infections drop to 42,000 for the first time since June - but South Dakota sees a 50% surge following its annual Sturgis motorcycle rally

-The country is now averaging just over 42,000 new COVID-19 infections a day for the first time since late June

-It is the fifth straight week of declines across the United States

-The state that saw the biggest increase in cases last week was South Dakota at 50 percent

-SD infections have been rising since the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, which drew more than 100,000 people from all over the country from August 7 to 16

-At least two dozens COVID-19 cases in South Dakota, Minnesota and Nebraska have now been linked back to the rally

-The uptick in South Dakota and other states seeing increases states is well below the triple digits reported in June and July in the hotspots of California, Texas, Arizona and Florida

-The increases in these states are nowhere near enough to reflect an uptick in the national trend

-National deaths are now also declining having dropped below an average of 1,000 per day for the first time in a month

-Deaths, which had plateaued nationally for about three weeks, are a lagging indicator and can potentially rise several weeks after new cases start to decline

-Coronavirus infections in the US have now topped 5.7 million and more than 177,000 have died of COVID-19 since the pandemic started

 

[10ofRods]

I believe there was a conference of Emergency Medicine doctors ? In New York City during the early days. Don’t recall Reading anything about spreading From that one. Biogen was feb 24ish? I think

Hmm. Very interesting. So by February 24th, it looks like Covid had infiltrated members of the scientific and medical community. I haven't read enough to know what the tracers postulate were the original group (or person). But it does seem clear that they are able to use CoVid's own RNA structure to figure this out accurately.

That's how many different variations there are - and apparently all the people who got it at Biogen had just one of these little dots - and this work is also being used to ascertain true cases of "second infection." Most people with second infections have a slightly different strain (because over time, RNA mutates).

Here's an article with more.

There's more news on the purple vs. green news, but I'm still digesting it. It was somewhat predictable - which is that the form of CoVid (green) that is easier to transmit is also, perhaps, less severe in outcomes. That means many people will get it, but suffer a milder form, thereby being more able to transmit it to more people so that over time, tons of people will get it, but there's optimism that it could be milder (although for individuals it's probably just still luck of the draw).

 

[MrX]

ADHS: Maricopa, Pima, Pinal counties “likely” to meet benchmarks for businesses to reopen Thursday

I talked to someone who went up to Prescott over the weekend - their county reached "moderate" status last week. He said bars started selling peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in order to qualify as "restaurants," and I see that live music has returned to "Whiskey Row." This is so overdue in Phoenix - the original three week "pause" lasted two months. Life takes another step back toward "normal" on Thursday.

 

[KALI]

Good question. Plus how many relatives and friends will even let them? Besides the hurricanes, there's hundreds of thousands evacuated in California due to the fires.

I’m wondering about the effect Hurricane Laura will have on spreading the virus?
With the mandatory evacuations - people usually head to friends/relatives houses - a lot of people indoors in one house.

 

[SoCalDavidS]

Gov. Brian Kemp’s office said Monday that the state Department of Public Health has received reports that people are using diluted chlorine dioxide to “treat” COVID-19.

“Chlorine dioxide is a bleach-like cleaning agent and, if ingested, can have severe, adverse health effects, including death,” Kemp’s office said in a press release.

Chlorine dioxide products have not been shown to be safe and effective for any use. The governor’s office said products are being marketed under various names: Aqueous Chlorine Dioxide, CDS, Master Mineral Solution, Miracle Mineral Solution, MSS, Water Purification Solution and others.

Health officials said taking chlorine dioxide products can lead to respiratory failure, fatal abnormal heart rhythms, life-threatening low blood pressure, liver failure, low blood cell counts, and severe vomiting and diarrhea.

Officials say some Georgians treat COVID with bleach-like cleaner

 

[mickey2942]

Boris Johnson may resign in 2021 due to lingering ill-health from CoVid

This doesn't surprise me. Plus, he has a new baby as well. I saw three jobs posted today for the state office of disability determination. This office coordinates and works with Social Security to ensure that people who have severe disabling conditions make it to the top of the stack of disability claims at Social Security.

I once took paperwork over there, and a young gal with an inoperable brain tumor, was awarded 100% disability in less than a three week turn around. No denial or appeal, it was a slam dunk.

Anyway, I bet that they are gearing up for Covid claims.

 

[SouthAussie]

ADHS: Maricopa, Pima, Pinal counties “likely” to meet benchmarks for businesses to reopen Thursday

I talked to someone who went up to Prescott over the weekend - their county reached "moderate" status last week. He said bars started selling peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in order to qualify as "restaurants," and I see that live music has returned to "Whiskey Row." This is so overdue in Phoenix - the original three week "pause" lasted two months. Life takes another step back toward "normal" on Thursday.

So, according to the link within your link, the 'moderate' benchmark is:
10-99 cases per 100k
5-10% positivity
5-10% covid-like illness

Are those a 'choice' of benchmark rates? As in, either 10-99 cases per 100k, or 5-10% positivity, or 5-10% covid-like illness?

ADHS

 

[Satchie]

If someone's remaining years will all be spent in a world of Covid restrictions, there can be a significant quality of life difference between sitting at a cafe in Stockholm and being repeatedly locked down in other places.

I'm sorry, I don't understand this concept about people having a predetermined set of remaining years. If someone does have a diagnosis of terminal cancer, I'm sure there would be things they'd like to do, but I'm not sure they'd want to risk catching Covid in order to do them. IMO, the people who don't practise social distancing, etc, aren't cancer patients.

 

[SouthAussie]

Good question. Plus how many relatives and friends will even let them? Besides the hurricanes, there's hundreds of thousands evacuated in California due to the fires.

Evacuations in Colorado, too. A friend lives there and sent pics of the terrible fires they are also having.

 

[Satchie]

This doesn't surprise me. Plus, he has a new baby as well.

I don't know whether it's true but I'll bet Dominic Cummings and his wife and her father are in big doodoo with Boris for spreading gossip.

 

[tresir2012]

I'll take a risk on a, 78% survival rate any day. Only 22% died , if given in the first three days. Even a 73% survival rate if given on day 4, 27% died, still good odds.

It's impossible to have a controlled study. Not many are going to sign up with the risk of a placebo, when a therapy is running an 78% survival rate. Nope, not me. I want the 78% chance to live.

Moo...

I am happy to believe the FDA and the 35% cut in deaths quoted. Hahn was pretty convincing about it at the PC. We believe the FDA about hydroxy is the same rules should apply. As the authorising agency, they should know after all.

 

[tresir2012]

If you actually read the story, that isn't a motorbike rally organized and attended primarily by Swedes:

"the annual EMC Rally - a motorcycle rally where Christian motorcycle clubs from all over Europe and beyond gather. The rally takes place the first weekend of August each year and is hosted in different countries by different clubs each year." EMC - European Motorcyclists for Christ

That's not the only one though https://www.midnightsunbike.com
Also the Swedish motor bike gangs have really been prominently in the news in recent years not always for the right reasons.
https://www.thelocal.se/20200124/ex...s-motorcycle-biker-gangs-is-not-a-new-problem

 

[anneg]

FDA chief apologizes for overstating plasma effect on virus

Thank for posting this. Here is another article:
FDA's Hahn Apologizes For Overselling Plasma's Benefits As A COVID-19 Treatment
BBM
Excerpts:
The Food and Drug Administration's chief has undercut the agency's assertion that it is basing its decisions on science, not politics.

At a White House event Sunday with President Trump, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn used a deeply misleading statistic to claim that a treatment the agency had just authorized for treating the coronavirus would save 35 lives out of every 100 people who get the treatment.

That false claim brought withering criticism from scientists, in news articles and on Twitter, who argued that it was a gross exaggeration of the benefits.

"I can't remember a mistake by FDA or the commissioner as serious as this one," Dr. Eric Topol of the Scripps Translational Research Institute told NPR Tuesday.

On Monday evening, Hahn tweeted an apology, saying "The criticism is entirely justified."

SNIP

After seven days, the mortality rate of the group that got convalescent plasma early in their disease was about 9%, compared with a 12% mortality rate among people who got it later. At 30 days, the mortality rate was 22% for the early-treatment group versus a 27% mortality rate for the people who got later treatment.

So mortality apparently improved by 3 or 5 percentage points. That's the "absolute" risk reduction to which Hahn's tweet refers. Getting to a 35% "relative" reduction in mortality involves comparing the before and after groups in a way that dramatically exaggerates the effect of the treatment.

SNIP

The FDA's credibility is crucial right now as it evaluates potential vaccines for the coronavirus. ... the public already looks to be wary of a coronavirus vaccine – with a third of those surveyed telling pollsters they wouldn't take it. That position could harden, or worsen, if the public perceives that the FDA has approved a product based on politics, not science.
---

IMO, this is appalling. They were twisting limited data from a study that was not a randomized controlled trial, has not been published and has not been peer reviewed, to make it appear that the life-saving effect was about 10 times greater than the limited data showed (35% vs 3-5%).

 

[MimosaMornings]

Dr. Birx: If it’s safe to go into Starbucks in Mississippi, it’s safe to wait in line at the polls

In an interview with CBN News over the weekend, Dr. Birx discussed topics ranging from the safety of in-door church services, coronavirus vaccinations and the act of voting in November.

On the issue of voting at the polls, Dr. Birx said that it has been safe for her to go into Starbucks and pick up her order. “If I can go into Starbucks in the middle of Texas and Alabama and Mississippi that have very high [coronavirus] case rates, then I can’t say that it would be different waiting in line in the polls.”

Guessing going inside a Starbucks to pick up her order takes 10-15 minutes? Masked and socially distancing inside the store - allowing only a limited amount of people due to occupancy restrictions. No chitchat with other customers or hanging out after you get your order.

Versus standing outside with most(hopefully) wearing masks and socially distancing in a long line. People talking to each other. For an hour or longer in line.
It will take longer to vote since they will disinfect/clean the voting machine device after each person? It took two hours in line for us last time. And hopefully you won’t have the need to use the portapotty outside!

 

[musicaljoke]

You make excellent points, regarding this, and most articles about Sweden's approach.

I think talking about this as if it's "over" is valid, if one considers people who won't outlive the pandemic. If someone's remaining years will all be spent in a world of Covid restrictions, there can be a significant quality of life difference between sitting at a cafe in Stockholm and being repeatedly locked down in other places.

Yes, indeed. If I knew that I had only one year left to live, I would surely want to find myself sitting at a cafe in Stockholm, provided, of course, that in doing so, I wasn't creating the possibility that others would join me on my death journey.

 

[MrX]

So, according to the link within your link, the 'moderate' benchmark is:
10-99 cases per 100k
5-10% positivity
5-10% covid-like illness

Are those a 'choice' of benchmark rates? As in, either 10-99 cases per 100k, or 5-10% positivity, or 5-10% covid-like illness?

ADHS

No, all three must be met for two consecutive weeks, with a 12 day lag. So Thursday they will post the numbers for the week of Aug 9 (the week ending on the 15th, which is 12 days prior to Thursday). If all three metrics are at least "moderate," for the weeks of Aug 2 and Aug 9, certain things can open at certain capacities. When all three are "minimal," places can open with greater capacity. Bars that don't serve food can open until all metrics are "minimal" AND positivity below 3% - even then it's 50% capacity. Health Director said they will need a vaccine or therapeutic break through in order to open at 100%. I suspect the fallout will be that food will be available at every bar and nightclub, starting Thursday...

https://www.azdhs.gov/documents/pre...navirus/community/guidance-for-businesses.pdf

 

[MimosaMornings]

Evacuations in Colorado, too. A friend lives there and sent pics of the terrible fires they are also having.

I hope your friend is safe, such devastation there and in California.

 

[Lilibet]

Guessing going inside a Starbucks to pick up her order takes 10-15 minutes? Masked and socially distancing inside the store - allowing only a limited amount of people due to occupancy restrictions. No chitchat with other customers or hanging out after you get your order.

Versus standing outside with most(hopefully) wearing masks and socially distancing in a long line. People talking to each other. For an hour or longer in line.
It will take longer to vote since they will disinfect/clean the voting machine device after each person? It took two hours in line for us last time. And hopefully you won’t have the need to use the portapotty outside!

I thought the exact same thing about the difference between picking up a Starbucks order and standing in line to vote! Dr Brix’ comparison is not in line with reality.
JMO

 

[musicaljoke]

Guessing going inside a Starbucks to pick up her order takes 10-15 minutes? Masked and socially distancing inside the store - allowing only a limited amount of people due to occupancy restrictions. No chitchat with other customers or hanging out after you get your order.

Versus standing outside with most(hopefully) wearing masks and socially distancing in a long line. People talking to each other. For an hour or longer in line.
It will take longer to vote since they will disinfect/clean the voting machine device after each person? It took two hours in line for us last time. And hopefully you won’t have the need to use the portapotty outside!

Is there any talk of setting up more polling booths so fewer people have to use the same location?