Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #84

[10ofRods]

From the article a couple different ways to do contact tracing I didn't know about:

Genomic sequencing, which other countries have harnessed to determine the path of an outbreak, has been underused in the United States. And because it requires culturing and sequencing active virus, the rally is too far in the past for it to be of service now, said Michaud, the Kaiser Family Foundation epidemiologist.

But other countries offer examples of more robust and coordinated contact-tracing efforts, Michaud said. Japan uses what’s called retrospective contact tracing — working backward to determine where a person was infected and who else may have gotten the virus there, he said. It’s particularly effective in dealing with the coronavirus, which is often transmitted by a small number of people infecting many others in clusters.

Love your post. Using the genetic map of CoVid, contact tracing can certainly trace a case back to a limited set of sources).

We'll get there. You can't say someone got the virus from another person unless they had the same flavor of CoVid (or something that's only 1 point mutation away - CoVId is a fairly slow mutating RNA virus, which means that people get it have the same form as the person who gave it to them - +1 point mutation, which can also be examined).

 

[dixiegirl1035]

From the article a couple different ways to do contact tracing I didn't know about:

Genomic sequencing, which other countries have harnessed to determine the path of an outbreak, has been underused in the United States. And because it requires culturing and sequencing active virus, the rally is too far in the past for it to be of service now, said Michaud, the Kaiser Family Foundation epidemiologist.

But other countries offer examples of more robust and coordinated contact-tracing efforts, Michaud said. Japan uses what’s called retrospective contact tracing — working backward to determine where a person was infected and who else may have gotten the virus there, he said. It’s particularly effective in dealing with the coronavirus, which is often transmitted by a small number of people infecting many others in clusters.

The genomic sequencing folks were up and front and some of us here at WS posted on and followed at the very outset, IIRC back in February. They are the *keeper* of DNA sequencing when they grew the virus and did the DNA modelling to follow the pandemic and was REALLY interesting in the beginning.

OMG, how far things have come in just two decades in 2003 when the first human genome was sequenced!

Trivia time - the FIRST genome sequenced was Haemophilus influenza.

It's now toooooooooooooo overwhelming for me so I don't follow anymore, but was THE INSTRUMENT that determined that NYC cases etc came from europe, etc etc.

Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy over my paygrade now as so many clades. Well, at least we had time when it was starting to better understand the phylogenetic tree, have it in our vocabulary here, and how it's done!

This is the site, you can drill down and do wonders with it... but me, I'll stick with what I can handle and kind of understand by reading lol.

auspice <<--- This is the next strain .org site. Beware, it's .... for the TRUE TRUE professionals now MOO

ETA: Interesting as to retrospective tracing. Very interesting as nowadays, some folks just flat out LIE! (E.g. the post that someone did upthread of a private school in Georgia... parents and others would not share/didn't disclose in the tracing). I'll say IIRC/MOO as I don't have the link which we discussed.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

JMO
The interviewers missed their chance.
The female contracted it recently and had no idea? We can’t do everything perfectly but I can tell you where I haven’t been.
I have not seen friends - inside or outside - since early March. I have not been to a wedding, funeral or party inside someone’s home. No indoor or outdoor dining. No gym, yoga, spin or indoor/outdoor pool.
No manicures, pedicures, haircuts.
Maybe I’m an anomaly.

I am with you as to not going out. Here, I'm retired, live alone, no family, and I have you guys and my garden and phone with friends etc.

The one difference I have is I work in my gardens, and in front garden once a week, perhaps someone will stop and chat, but most will just say "good morning" as they continue their morning exercise walk through the neighborhood.

My hair is so long and thin as no hair cuts etc. I have started trunk deliveries of groceries.

So for me, saying I don't know how I got it with just those who are late 20's/early 30's would be waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay different if I was going out, working, having kids etc etc.

 

[LadyL]

yes this really happened in Canada - SMH

Saskatoon bar flagged for possible COVID-19 exposure says inspectors approved its 'redneck dance cubes'

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sask...ozrviDnHk889kCPdWx5Ic163Hc8zNcaLzol5Yd8vzx5uY

 

[CharlestonGal]

I am watching MSNBC-- a couple of people are describing their
Covid experience--a 29 year old healthy male and a perhaps 30 ish
healthy female-they continue to experience symptoms--the male was in a coma
for 11 days in March-- both never expected to be victims of this virus-

What troubles me is both people said they have no idea how they
caught it-- they both said they thought they were doing the right
things to avoid contracting the virus..

When i hear stories like this i think i am doing everything
possible not to get the virus,but apparently i could still get
it-- what is scary is one cannot be perfect all the time so one
can make some small mistake and get it that way

Hearing these accounts of people who are mystified as to how they contracted covid -- could it be that it's just simply more contagious and easily transmitted than we estimate? Not anything on the order of measles Ro or anything, but higher than we think?

No idea. Just musing.

 

[MimosaMornings]

ETA: Interesting as to retrospective tracing. Very interesting as nowadays, some folks just flat out LIE! (E.g. the post that someone did upthread of a private school in Georgia... parents and others would not share/didn't disclose in the tracing). I'll say IIRC/MOO as I don't have the link which we discussed.

Georgia Today: How The 'Lovett Cluster' Stymied Contact Tracers

The Race to Investigate a Coronavirus Outbreak at a Georgia Prep School

 

[cass523]

Dr. Fauci on 60 Minutes tonight

"Dr. Fauci on his media restrictions, Trump contracting COVID, masks, voting and more"

13:37

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[Sillybilly]

Bumping earlier post.

Please stay on topic by discussing Covid19.

This discussion is not about the healthcare system, Affordable Health Care, SCOTUS nominees, or the Obama administration.

 

[10ofRods]

I am with you as to not going out. Here, I'm retired, live alone, no family, and I have you guys and my garden and phone with friends etc.

The one difference I have is I work in my gardens, and in front garden once a week, perhaps someone will stop and chat, but most will just say "good morning" as they continue their morning exercise walk through the neighborhood.

My hair is so long and thin as no hair cuts etc. I have started trunk deliveries of groceries.

So for me, saying I don't know how I got it with just those who are late 20's/early 30's would be waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay different if I was going out, working, having kids etc etc.

I thought you said "drunk deliveries of groceries" and was hoping you'd deliver to my house!

 

[CharlestonGal]

Apparently, I am neurotically open-minded. LOL

Lockdown or not, personality predicts your likelihood of staying home during the pandemic

The survey explored the five key traits commonly used by psychologists to characterise personality: agreeableness, conscientiousness, extroversion, neuroticism, and openness. Agreeable people tend to be more compliant and trusting, and conscientious ones are diligent and law-abiding. People scoring highly for these personality traits tend to stay at home when advised to do so.

People who scored as highly neurotic, and those with very open-minded personalities decided to stay at home more even before lockdowns were put into place - they were already concerned about catching coronavirus. The researchers think that as restrictions on movements lift, these groups are more likely to maintain social distancing than other personality types.

“Highly neurotic people had decided early on that this virus wasn’t something to mess with, and they were staying at home,” said Götz.

The researchers found that extroverts are least likely to follow official guidance to stay at home. The team suggest that tailoring public health messages towards the more extroverted in society could encourage greater overall compliance in populations and help prevent the spread of coronavirus.

“Extroverts are gregarious and sociable, and they found it especially hard to stay cooped up at home and not see other people. They were most likely to break lockdown rules, and stayed at home less than people of any other personality type during March and April,” said Friedrich Götz, a PhD researcher in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Psychology, and first author of the report.

 

[CharlestonGal]

I thought you said "drunk deliveries of groceries" and was hoping you'd deliver to my house!

Since covid, I have my groceries delivered as well. A couple weeks ago I placed my order after being a little too friendly with the wine. The next day, I was unpacking my order and it was like, "What the heck did I order???" LOL!

 

[ilovewings]

Yikes.
Back in March? How many people were wearing masks, social distancing, working from home, grocery curbside or delivery only and did not see people outside their household?

I did not know all the right things to do in early March but I wouldn’t have much trouble identifying certain places or environments that could have been a contributing factor.

This kind of news is scary due to the vagueness.
What were the right things they were doing? Hopefully they delve into that more later in the show. Would be interesting.
So maybe we can learn something?

I so often hear people who have contracted the virus say " I felt I was doing everything right" and I wonder about that- somewhere there had to be a breach. The 29 year old male contracted the virus in March before masks, etc, but the female contracted it more recently. the interviewers never go into a lot of depth of how these people caught the virus.

Hearing these accounts of people who are mystified as to how they contracted covid -- could it be that it's just simply more contagious and easily transmitted than we estimate? Not anything on the order of measles Ro or anything, but higher than we think?

No idea. Just musing.

That idea is pretty scary

 

[10ofRods]

Apparently, I am neurotically open-minded. LOL

Lockdown or not, personality predicts your likelihood of staying home during the pandemic

The survey explored the five key traits commonly used by psychologists to characterise personality: agreeableness, conscientiousness, extroversion, neuroticism, and openness. Agreeable people tend to be more compliant and trusting, and conscientious ones are diligent and law-abiding. People scoring highly for these personality traits tend to stay at home when advised to do so.

People who scored as highly neurotic, and those with very open-minded personalities decided to stay at home more even before lockdowns were put into place - they were already concerned about catching coronavirus. The researchers think that as restrictions on movements lift, these groups are more likely to maintain social distancing than other personality types.

“Highly neurotic people had decided early on that this virus wasn’t something to mess with, and they were staying at home,” said Götz.

The researchers found that extroverts are least likely to follow official guidance to stay at home. The team suggest that tailoring public health messages towards the more extroverted in society could encourage greater overall compliance in populations and help prevent the spread of coronavirus.

“Extroverts are gregarious and sociable, and they found it especially hard to stay cooped up at home and not see other people. They were most likely to break lockdown rules, and stayed at home less than people of any other personality type during March and April,” said Friedrich Götz, a PhD researcher in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Psychology, and first author of the report.

I think that's a tiny bit of a misuse of Freud's term (neurotic) and more of a popular meaning. Nevertheless, those who are even slightly OCP are going to stay home - but it's equally neurotic (according to Freud) to flaunt conventions and break rules. He's cheerful about it though, he thinks neurotics can improve themselves.

The extroverts are going to be out there anyway, so yes, since there is a "herd mentality" and people do what they see being done, the extroverts are modeling for everyone else.

I grew up in a farming town, we saw mostly family. I was raised as an only child - so am used to being by myself. I like reading. A lot. So I'm more likely to cope with staying home and am so grateful that I actually have a home...

 

[CharlestonGal]

I think that's a tiny bit of a misuse of Freud's term (neurotic) and more of a popular meaning. Nevertheless, those who are even slightly OCP are going to stay home - but it's equally neurotic (according to Freud) to flaunt conventions and break rules. He's cheerful about it though, he thinks neurotics can improve themselves.

The extroverts are going to be out there anyway, so yes, since there is a "herd mentality" and people do what they see being done, the extroverts are modeling for everyone else.

I grew up in a farming town, we saw mostly family. I was raised as an only child - so am used to being by myself. I like reading. A lot. So I'm more likely to cope with staying home and am so grateful that I actually have a home...

I completely understand the extrovert dynamic though, as I used to be one. I would have been out there partying right along with them when I was younger, covid or no covid. I just wanted to be young and have fun and I would not have listened either.

My first few autopsies cured me of that, immediately.

 

[Sprockett7701]

Apparently, I am neurotically open-minded. LOL

Lockdown or not, personality predicts your likelihood of staying home during the pandemic

The survey explored the five key traits commonly used by psychologists to characterise personality: agreeableness, conscientiousness, extroversion, neuroticism, and openness. Agreeable people tend to be more compliant and trusting, and conscientious ones are diligent and law-abiding. People scoring highly for these personality traits tend to stay at home when advised to do so.

People who scored as highly neurotic, and those with very open-minded personalities decided to stay at home more even before lockdowns were put into place - they were already concerned about catching coronavirus. The researchers think that as restrictions on movements lift, these groups are more likely to maintain social distancing than other personality types.

“Highly neurotic people had decided early on that this virus wasn’t something to mess with, and they were staying at home,” said Götz.

The researchers found that extroverts are least likely to follow official guidance to stay at home. The team suggest that tailoring public health messages towards the more extroverted in society could encourage greater overall compliance in populations and help prevent the spread of coronavirus.

“Extroverts are gregarious and sociable, and they found it especially hard to stay cooped up at home and not see other people. They were most likely to break lockdown rules, and stayed at home less than people of any other personality type during March and April,” said Friedrich Götz, a PhD researcher in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Psychology, and first author of the report.

Highly neurotic or...not wanting to die...man, I was happy to stay away from society for the short iso that WA (Oz) had.

Luckily, we have not had major issues with the pandemic comparatively and have been able to continue living a mainly normal life (disclaimer;I’m a SAHM, who is a bit of a hermit anyway, but I have all the usual kid related activities to attend lol) whilst listening to news from around the world which makes it seem very, very surreal...

 

[CharlestonGal]

Senior PLO official Erekat taken to hospital after COVID-19 condition worsens

JERICHO, West Bank (Reuters) - Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat was taken by ambulance to a hospital in Israel on Sunday for treatment of a worsening case of COVID-19, the Palestine Liberation Organization said.

Witnesses said Erekat, 65, was on a stretcher when he was placed inside an Israeli ambulance outside his home in Jericho, in the occupied West Bank. Erekat, who is also secretary-general of the PLO, disclosed on Oct. 8 that he had contracted coronavirus.

He was rushed to Jerusalem’s Hadassah Medical Center. A hospital spokeswoman said Erekat was in a serious but stable condition. He needed high-flow oxygen support and was being treated in an intensive care ward for coronavirus patients.

 

[10ofRods]

I completely understand the extrovert dynamic though, as I used to be one. I would have been out there partying right along with them when I was younger, covid or no covid. I just wanted to be young and have fun and I would not have listened either.

My first few autopsies cured me of that, immediately.

I was always rather introverted, although I didn't know it at the time, having never experienced big crowds, etc (except at Disneyland, I guess).

For me, autopsies made a difference as well. It's sobering. Anatomy class with corpses (just normal dead people who had donated bodies) was also...sobering.

But in the end, after I turned about 25 (still mystified by parties), I realized that I was an introvert. I do admire extroverts so much, but at another level, I do not understand the general partying (especially events with 100-500 or more jammed into one venue).

We do have to be alert to the needs of the younger people and send them the right messages - but it's hard, because most of them will not have a severe course. I can see why they are still partying.

 

[CharlestonGal]

You and I have a lot in common, extroversion or not.

I too have my calendar all worked out. I'll be really interested to hear what other WSers will do for the holidays and have been heavily lurking the holiday thread.

I'm agonizing about what to do with the holidays, as well. My daughter is in med school, so she's exposed daily to her classmates. And I am high risk. We've only seen each other a handful of times since March. And then, always outside and always wearing masks, usually walking the dogs. We used to meet several times a week for lunch, or to hang out at my home or her apartment. It's been awful and I've cried about it more than I usually admit.

I don't know what to do. Her birthday is in December as well, which I've always made a big deal out of. I am really distraught about it. I miss her so badly!

 

[SouthAussie]

I'm agonizing about what to do with the holidays, as well. My daughter is in med school, so she's exposed daily to her classmates. And I am high risk. We've only seen each other a handful of times since March. And then, always outside and always wearing masks, usually walking the dogs. We used to meet several times a week for lunch, or to hang out at my home or her apartment. It's been awful and I've cried about it more than I usually admit.

I don't know what to do. Her birthday is in December as well, which I've always made a big deal out of. I am really distraught about it. I miss her so badly!

Aww ... CG. It is so hard for people this year.

Maybe go to the holiday thread and see if there are any ideas there?
There must be some safe way to be socially distanced together. It won't be the same, nothing will be the same until this pandemic is under control, but something is better than nothing.

Holiday and Winter Alternatives for Social Distancing Gatherings

One of the biggest things, according to this article, is increasing the ventilation indoors. As well as social distancing, mask wearing, hand hygiene, and not touching.

COVID: How to be safe indoors during Thanksgiving, Christmas, winter

 

[Trino]

I was always rather introverted, although I didn't know it at the time, having never experienced big crowds, etc (except at Disneyland, I guess).

For me, autopsies made a difference as well. It's sobering. Anatomy class with corpses (just normal dead people who had donated bodies) was also...sobering.

But in the end, after I turned about 25 (still mystified by parties), I realized that I was an introvert. I do admire extroverts so much, but at another level, I do not understand the general partying (especially events with 100-500 or more jammed into one venue).

We do have to be alert to the needs of the younger people and send them the right messages - but it's hard, because most of them will not have a severe course. I can see why they are still partying.

I often think of my younger years along with the cliche, "there but for the grace of God go I."