Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #2

[margarita25]

There is soooooooooooo much information in this article, I can't begin to take out 10% here. A Must read for those that are following this thread closely as to new information and background MOO.

Also, political stuff would like to comment on as it answers many questions we have had here and posted concerns about, but since I aspire to be a good WSer... I won't start as I wouldn't be able to stop iykwim

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ly-allowed-coronavirus-spread-farther-faster/

• After city hospitals were overwhelmed by patients who sought coronavirus tests, local authorities this week announced hospitals would only give tests to those who showed severe symptoms and obtained a referral from smaller neighborhood clinics. (e.d. should we expect to see less of an increase since they aren't testing all folks now?)
  
• Some patients died in waiting areas before spots open up, said Chen Qiushi, a well-known Chinese video blogger who has been roaming and filming inside Wuhan’s hospitals. (e.d. if you google his name, you can follow him and his youtubes etc, they are good, I'm following them but I don't think I can post them here due to TOS) ETA-If you do watch his you tubes, go into settings and turn on subtitles as he speaks Chinese

...so much more at the link

Also from the above link / photo of the market for reference:

A police officer walks in front of the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market that scientists have linked to the coronavirus. (Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images)

ETA / not sure if you guys can see the image, here’s a direct link

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-a...m/public/BYMUHCCEMQI6VGOHDX6UEQNC7Y.jpg&w=767

ETA2: One thing I’ve noticed is a lot of pictures where people aren’t wearing gloves, including one of a medical worker removing a sick man on a gurney. I know it’s about hand washing, not touching your face, etc., but still, I’d want gloves, moo.

 

[gregjrichards]

Cancel your holidays! Peter Dutton urges Australians to reconsider ALL overseas travel to protect themselves against deadly coronavirus

Peter Dutton urges Australians to reconsider ALL overseas travel to protect against coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

Peter Dutton is Australia’s Foreign Affairs Minister. Qantas and the other airlines won’t be happy about this.

 

[margarita25]

The Geopolitical Consequences of the Coronavirus Outbreak

An interesting read on the economic/geopolitical impact, MOO

“As a case study, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. provides a clear example of how the virus is already harming the Chinese economy. Alibaba is a symbol of contemporary China as superpower; its name is synonymous with Chinese economic might. Unfortunately for Alibaba, the coronavirus now strikes at the very heart of its identity. In almost in every country, there are new stories about citizens fearful of deliveries from China – including from the most famous Chinese company, Alibaba Group. As a result, the company’s stock price has dropped from $231 on January 13 to a low of $2035 by January 28.”

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Excellent point to consider when thinking about this formula.

In that case let’s start with X% of the cases are in Hubei, so....

I’m so glad we have our little group here.

-/



I read evacuations were trying to get underway for Indian citizens for a while now.

Could a domestic flight be carrying these evacuees? They’ve been talking about getting them out for a while. I hadn’t read about them arriving yet.

Looking at link, thanks for all your information.

ETA: @dixiegirl1035 , I am DYING now to know what the deal is with that flight from Wuhan to Delhi. I am googling still not seeing anything.

ETA2: See post re: this below

Coronavirus outbreak: 324 return from Wuhan, test negative; another batch arrives today | India News - Times of India

ETA / BBM:

““Six Indians were not allowed to board the flight at Wuhan by Chinese authorities, as they were running fever. In all, 211 students, 110 people working in the region and three minors boarded the B747 ‘Ajanta’ which took off from Wuhan at 1.40am and reached Delhi at 7.26am,” said an AI official.

While everyone tested negative in the initial round of screening, high alert and precaution have been advised. For the next two weeks, all the returnees who were taken to two isolation facilities will undergo tests twice a day, where their pulse, temperature and any fluctuations in the immunity system will be monitored.”

ETA2: Wither I’m crosseyed or these times are different:

Air India (AI) #1349 ✈ FlightAware

H
landing atIndira Gandhi Int'l -DEL
SUN 02-FEB-202005:36AM CST
(6 hours 31 minutes late)
SUN 02-FEB-202009:20AM IST
(6 hours 45 minutes

Maybe this is the other flight? The article mentions two.

RE Your ETA I just caught, yes, there was a previous flight which you mentioned, and one person from that flight is now in the hospital with positive results. So, yes, two flights.

The positive case has been detected in Kerala's Thrissur district. The patient has been kept in an isolation ward while the number of people under observation in the state rose to 1,053.

Kerala student is India's first confirmed case of coronavirus

From all my readings, it appears that China is not letting out folks who have a fever. Mentioned here also. I had thought it was up to the countries pulling people out... dunno.

 

[margarita25]

Over 300 dead from coronavirus as outbreak infects more than 14,300
CNN
Updated 9:03 p.m. ET, February 1, 2020

“A total of 304 people had died from coronavirus in mainland China by the end of Saturday, according to the country's National Health Commission. So far, there have been no deaths outside the mainland.”

Wuhan coronavirus: Over 300 dead from epidemic in mainland China - CNN

——

Agree, as a few times I have posted the comparative information to the flu on this thread.

Looking at it from a Global Perspective, the flu causes significant illness and death and impact to Global economies. Huge MOO. And there has never been a 100% targeted vaccine for the flu because it mutates too much.

With all the flu vaccine shots, look at all the deaths that occur, yet because of the mutations, they don't cover every mutation and is not 100% effective. Add to that of course many folks don't get the shots. So many deaths even though there is a flu vaccine shot . Cannot fathom the death toll if there wasn't a vaccine.

Coronavirus... I can't even Envision the numbers and deaths if there is not an eventual vaccine as the flu vaccine shot. But long ways away.

What in the world is done in the meantime?

As to contact tracing which is being done outside of China now, the individuals that are being monitored and tracked are guinea pigs/case studies to learn more about the virus for the future and its impact In addition to containing it. While diagnostic tests, treatments and vaccines are being worked on.

With over 11,000 documented infections in China, the countries that are isolating and quarantining and testing them and following them with serology Etc are going to be able to contribute to knowing more about this virus.

In the next couple of months, I don't see how they're going to be able to do anything other than track and let the virus Go free range in China as China cannot track and isolate as well as the countries where it has just appeared. MOO. Consider all the resources just to track the 400+ returning folks from Wuhan in the United States and the United Kingdom.

Yeah, I keep thinking about the 5 million people that left Wuhan in the early days.

Reference:
5 million people left Wuhan before China quarantined the city to contain the coronavirus outbreak

 

[LadyL]

I’ll never be able to catch up here. Has anyone read any discussions on the virus being transmitted on objects? Is there any threat to imports outside of the manpower to make them?

the short answer is no
very little risk because the virus doesn't survive on surfaces long

 

[gregjrichards]

Australians will be airlifted from the Chinese city of Wuhan - the epicentre of the coronavirus - in the next 24 hours to Christmas Island, according to Federal health minister Greg Hunt.

Mr Hunt confirmed an Australian medical assistance team with a mobile hospital has arrived on former detention centre, Christmas Island.

'Personnel are in place to receive the passengers from Wuhan and we expect that the flight will be collecting within the next 24 hours,' Mr Hunt told reporters in Canberra on Sunday.

Stranded Australians will be airlifted from virus-stricken Wuhan in the next 24 hours | Daily Mail Online

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I found it! Here's the map I was referring to which showed potential places in US based on travel incoming.

public health
Update January 31: Modeling the Spreading Risk of 2019-nCoV



ncov-model-2 – CSSE

ETA: So we have till February 6th to know of incoming cases (two weeks from shut down of flights iirc)

 

[Bravo]

As of Friday a.m. our local Hospital is screening anybody coming in any entrance not just Emerg. Visitation continues. For now.

 

[margarita25]

Australians will be airlifted from the Chinese city of Wuhan - the epicentre of the coronavirus - in the next 24 hours to Christmas Island, according to Federal health minister Greg Hunt.

Mr Hunt confirmed an Australian medical assistance team with a mobile hospital has arrived on former detention centre, Christmas Island.

'Personnel are in place to receive the passengers from Wuhan and we expect that the flight will be collecting within the next 24 hours,' Mr Hunt told reporters in Canberra on Sunday.

Stranded Australians will be airlifted from virus-stricken Wuhan in the next 24 hours | Daily Mail Online

These poor people in line waiting for medical attention. The guy on the right...

One lady has her mask off.

Wuhan residents wear facemasks as they wait for medical attention at Wuhan Red Cross Hospital to prevent the spread of the deadly virus which began in the city

—

 

[Amonet]

I find the medical advice about wearing masks “off”. The advice is that the traditional surgical masks needn’t be worn, and that they are ineffective in preventing getting the virus. And that they should only be worn if you yourself are sick so that you prevent coughing and sneezing on others.

Doctor’s office waiting rooms (at least where I live) have always asked anyone who is coughing or sneezing to put on one of the disposable masks at the counter.

So here is the problem as I see it: this Coronavirus is confirmed to spread from people who are asymptomatic. So if doctors are asking coughers and sneezers to wear masks, why shouldn’t they be recommending EVERYONE wear a mask right now? To avoid respiratory transmissions because you may in fact have it and spread it? This, to me, is a huge part of how a country nips a massive outbreak in the bud.

So I’m quite annoyed by all of this mask medical advice. It is not logical IMO.


MOO

I would say that right now, that would be a waste of masks which are currently having supply issues and which might have greater need in the coming months.

It is highly likely at this time of year that a waiting patient has a cold or flu than anything else. If this coronavirus attains the number of infected as the flu does, then I think your point is absolutely valid...but I wouldn't say we're at that point yet.

 

[KALI]

I am VERY glad our POTUS and our American leaders our taking this seriously.
That's all. My opinion. Thank You.

 

[Bravo]

I am VERY glad our POTUS and our American leaders our taking this seriously.
That's all. My opinion. Thank You.

Me too. We are due for a visit to see my American Family. I expect border questions may be a bit different if we do get over while this is going on.

 

[What if...]

the short answer is no
very little risk because the virus doesn't survive on surfaces long

I’ve seen that statement as they compare it to prior varieties of coronavirus, but have they actually confirmed that with this particular strain? I don’t recall any confirmation on the possible incubation period for this strain either.
I may have very well missed it, but most of the reports I’ve read are making assumptions based on what has been historically the norm.

 

[margarita25]

the short answer is no
very little risk because the virus doesn't survive on surfaces long

This requires more examination, IMO, but it does remind me:

I saw a video of a man who has to leave isolation to take care of the horses.

He had to pass a temperature check at a guarded gate to get through (must be important horses), and then he had to go into a small room with a big ultraviolet light tube to disinfect.

 

[Amonet]

I saw a link to an article or a website a few days ago that had a breakdown of confirmed cases by severity. (I’m pretty sure it was posted on this thread somewhere)

Has anyone seen an updated version? Or know of a link where that information is being tracked?

TIA

Maybe this one?

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

 

[squareandrabbet]

Folks have posted about how airline travel projections have been used by researchers/epidemiologists as to where it might appear. Thanks! The one that I saw still haven't found/seen reposted. Sorry, I should have posted just for that map, but it was way over my head as to scientific jargon in the article. Anyway, it had a map of the US and expected cities. Yep, Boston was one of them. Also, IIRC two places that were on the list that haven't been hit yet are New York City and Houston Tx. There were a few others, but the projection had the places where all in the US have occurred!

They're testing someone in NYC now:

NYC’s First Possible Coronavirus Patient Tested at Manhattan Hospital

The New York City Department of Health reported the city's first case on Saturday. The patient, under the age of 40, recently traveled to New York from China and "presented with fever and cough or shortness of breath without another common cause, like influenza and other cold viruses," the department said.

The department said testing takes a minimum of 36-48 hours, depending on CDC capacity.

 

[gregjrichards]

A 44 year old man in the Philippines has died from the virus Sky News U.K is reporting. The man is from Wuhan in China.

 

[What if...]

Maybe this one?

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

I found the link I had been searching for, but this one is even better ! Thank you !!

 

[LadyL]

A 44 year old man in the Philippines has died from the virus Sky News U.K is reporting. The man is from Wuhan in China.

you forgot the link?