Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #2

[Inthedetails]

Great points. And I totally agree that when other countries's numbers start coming in with more figures, then it will help tremendously to be able to see the trends. Because we will be able to compare cases and death rates from multiple sources and then we will be able to get a much better average and assessment on things.

I think the numbers from Hubei are almost useless except that they are HUGE. Comparing the deaths in Hubei to the number of diagnosed cases does not give accurate info, imo, except to note the date rate is HIGHER than elsewhere. Something really weird happened in Hubei and my hunch is the population was simply different in the beginning than it is now - more of an underclass, elderly, uneducated, chronically ill, etc. and once the virus started to spread outside that group, the numbers started "counting."

Total speculation. My opinion....at the moment, subject to change as we (with hope) learn more.

jmo

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Aussie update - Queensland coronavirus update - New Case
There has been a third novel coronavirus case confirmed in Queensland. An eight year old boy, a Chinese national from Wuhan (Hubei Province), has been confirmed to have novel coronavirus. The child is a member of the tour group travelling with the 44 year old man and a 42 year old woman confirmed with coronavirus on 29 January and 30 January 2020. The child remains in isolation at the Gold Coast University Hospital and is currently stable. Further information will be provided by the Chief Health Officer tomorrow.
Queensland coronavirus update | Queensland Health

First case in Belgium 04 Feb 2020
One repatriated countryman tested positive for the new corona virus. #The nine countrymen who arrived from Wuhan on Sunday evening were extensively tested yesterday in the military hospital in Neder-Over-Heembeek. One of them appears to be infected with the new corona virus. The test results of the other countrymen are negative. Everyone has been informed of the results of his or her test. The person diagnosed with the infection is in good health and currently does not show any symptoms of disease. Yesterday evening the person concerned was transferred to the Saint Peter's Hospital in Brussels, one of the two reference centers in our country. All expertise and support is available there to guarantee the best care.
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Timeline (GMT)
4 February - Non mainland/NonChina cases so far today

• 11:17: 1 new case in Queensland, Australia. (Source)
• 10:25: 6 new cases in Singapore. (Source)
• 10:05: 6 new cases in Thailand. (Source)
• 09:43: 2 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)
• 09:20: 1 new case in Vietnam. (Source)
• 08:58: First case in Belgium. (Source)
• 07:42: 2 new cases in Malaysia. (Source)
  06:14: 11 new cases in Shanghai. (Source) oopsie, that's China
  05:58: 1 new case in Macau. (Source)
  02:55: 1 new case in South Korea. (Source)

• 02:50: 1 new case in Vietnam. (Source)
• 02:46: 1 new case in Macau. (Source)
• 02:45: 1 new death in Hong Kong. This is the first death in Hong Kong and the second outside mainland China. (Source)

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

 

[Inthedetails]

I just saw news coverage of the case in Hubei that showed beds/cots being delivered to a large civic center. I'm assuming these are in addition to beds being delivered to the new hospitals that were just built. Wow.

Can't provide a specific time-stamp as it was a live-stream news on youtube, but it was on this stream this morning:

 

[Inthedetails]

Doctors have warned of a rise in racist incidents as Asian-Australians have been targeted amid coronavirus fears. Guardian Australia has been told of one involving a young mother who was racially abused on a Sydney train.

The body representing Australian doctors working in emergency departments called for a calm and fact-based response to the new coronavirus, and to avoid “panic and division” amid the spread of misinformation.

Australian doctors warn of rise in racist abuse over coronavirus

This is terrible and it shouldn’t be happening.

I've been worried about this. Unexceptable.

This cannot be used as an excuse for racism.

jmo

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I just saw news coverage of the case in Hubei that showed beds/cots being delivered to a large civic center. I'm assuming these are in addition to beds being delivered to the new hospitals that were just built. Wow.

Can't provide a specific time-stamp as it was a live-stream news on youtube, but it was on this stream this morning:

Thanks, I did a rewind

• The two folks from San Benito County in CA have been transferred to San Fran hospital due to deteriorating condition
• 
• Virus can survive up to 5 days on hard surfaces
• 
• Beds in makeshift convention center
• 

3500 folks are now quarantined on princess cruise line, and talk about them having to stay on ship 14 days? Whoah?!

Coronavirus: Diamond Princess cruise quarantined, passenger diagnosed

Princess Cruises is working with Japanese health officials after confirming the quarantine of one of its ships carrying more than 3,500 people after news one of its passengers tested positive for coronavirus. A guest who hailed from Hong Kong disembarked Jan. 25 from the Diamond Princess while the ship docked in Hong Kong to visit a local hospital, where he was diagnosed with coronavirus. "While on the ship he did not visit the ship’s medical center to report any symptoms or illness," according to a news release. "The hospital reports that he is in stable condition and the family members traveling with him remain symptom-free." The cruise, which departed Jan. 20 from Yokohama, Japan, was scheduled to return Tuesday. Local health officials are reviewing the 2,666 guests and 1,045 crew members on board for symptoms.

ETA-See those military folks at the convention center and at the hospital, they are from the PLA Peoples Liberation Army.

 

[Bravo]

Canadians will begin to leave Wuhan on Thursday

 

[dotr]

Meanwhile..rbbm.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/coronavirus-plane-1.5450824
''Just two hours into a WestJet flight from Toronto to Montego Bay, Jamaica, passengers had their trips unexpectedly cut short on Monday after a passenger claimed he had the coronavirus.

At some point during Flight WS 2702 the man stood up, announced that he was recently in China and had contracted the disease, according to Peel Regional Police.''

''The captain said he believed it was a hoax, according to Broderick.

"I guess this guy thought it was a funny joke but it's just really weird. We were all very frustrated, to just place 240 people...it's just so selfish. We've lost a day of our vacation," says Broderick.''

''The plane landed around 2:10 p.m. ET and the man, a 29-year-old from nearby Thornhill, was arrested and charged with mischief.

He is scheduled to appear in court on March 9.

WestJet apologized to the 243 passengers.

Two flights were cancelled due to the incident.''

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Detroit Metro picked to receive flights from China amid virus outbreak

Detroit Metro Airport officials announced Monday the airport would be among 11 nationwide selected by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to receive flights from China, where the coronavirus was first reported.

Sunday, DHS started enforcing restrictions for all passenger flights to the U.S. carrying people who have recently traveled from China, airport officials said.

U.S. citizens who have traveled in China within 14 days of their arrival home are only being directed to airports where the federal government has added public health resources to implement enhanced screening procedures, according to the notice...

 

[Simply Southern]

My husband bought a couple packets of two at Menards, I think. Check Lowe’s, Home Depot, menards, and other home improvement stores. But I also found a reusable mask online with 4 replaceable filters, supposed to be N-95

I did purchase the N95 dust mask at Wal-Mart, however they are NOT approved by the FDA for medical use. a different " particle" size. But, hey, better than nothing.

Masks and N95 Respirators

FDA has cleared the following N95 respirators for use by the general public in public health medical emergencies:

• 3M™ Particulate Respirator 8670F
• 3M™ Particulate Respirator 8612F
• Pasture Tm F550G Respirator
• Pasture Tm A520G Respirator

These devices are labeled "NOT for occupational use.”

 

[Amonet]

Can anyone remember the date the quarantine started in Wuhan/Hubei?

I am still hopeful that the quarantine has helped to limit the spread there, and if it is, then it's possible we might see the effects of that soon in the numbers. On the other hand, would such an effect be hidden by fewer cases meaning more people can be tested?

What I am hoping for is that gradually we'd see the total number of cases minus those who have died or recovered start to level out and then reduce.

 

[dotr]

Can anyone remember the date the quarantine started in Wuhan/Hubei?

I am still hopeful that the quarantine has helped to limit the spread there, and if it is, then it's possible we might see the effects of that soon in the numbers. On the other hand, would such an effect be hidden by fewer cases meaning more people can be tested?

What I am hoping for is that gradually we'd see the total number of cases minus those who have died or recovered start to level out and then reduce.

Assuming accurate, will double check elsewhere ..
2020 Hubei lockdowns - Wikipedia
''On 23 January 2020, the central government of the People's Republic of China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei in an effort to quarantine the epicenter of a newly discovered coronavirus (2019-nCoV) to prevent an epidemic. This was the first known instance in modern history of locking down a major city of 11 million people and the incident was commonly referred to as the "Wuhan Lockdown" (Chinese: 武汉封城; pinyin: Wǔhàn fēng chéng) in the media. The World Health Organization (WHO), although stating that it was beyond its own guidelines, commended the move, calling it "unprecedented in public health history"

ETA.. BBC Jan 23 2020
Lockdowns rise as China tries to control virus
''Lockdown measures are increasing across China's Hubei province to try to control the spread of a new virus that has left 18 people dead in the country.

Wuhan, Hubei's capital of 11 million people where the virus first emerged, has no trains or planes in or out.

At least five other provincial cities are seeing clampdowns on transport.''

 

[Hatfield]

Can anyone remember the date the quarantine started in Wuhan/Hubei?

I am still hopeful that the quarantine has helped to limit the spread there, and if it is, then it's possible we might see the effects of that soon in the numbers. On the other hand, would such an effect be hidden by fewer cases meaning more people can be tested?

What I am hoping for is that gradually we'd see the total number of cases minus those who have died or recovered start to level out and then reduce.

I hope so too.

My biggest frustration with the numbers is it seems that once they determined someone definitely has the Virus, then there is only two results (Recovered or Dead).

So why in the world are the total number confirmed to have it around 20,000 and yet the resultant figures for recovered or dead is so small and not even close to 20,000 total.

Unless those 20,000 are all still sick in the hospital then the numbers dont make sense to me. Where are the rest of the 20,000 people?

I think what would have helped them is if they had a 3rd result category called "still sick and trying to recover" and another 4th category called "Missing" or "Lost Track of Person". That last category could be used for people that walked out of the hospital and cannot be found now. Having these 2 extra result categories would allow 100% balancing.
Each confirmed case would be accounted for in one of the 4 categories. And as the people in Category #3 either die or get better, then their number would shift over to the proper recovered or dead category.

Until the "final result -dead or recovered" numbers begin to balance to the 20,000 confirmed cases I think we are still getting bad data.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I hope so too.

My biggest frustration with the numbers is it seems that once they determined someone definitely has the Virus, then there is only two results (Recovered or Dead).

So why in the world are the total number confirmed to have it around 20,000 and yet the resultant figures for recovered or dead is so small and not even close to 20,000 total.

Unless those 20,000 are all still sick in the hospital then the numbers dont make sense to me. Where are the rest of the 20,000 people?

I think what would have helped them is if they had a 3rd result category called "still sick and trying to recover" and another 4th category called "Missing" or "Lost Track of Person". That last category could be used for people that walked out of the hospital and cannot be found now.

Until the "final result -dead or recovered" numbers begin to balance to the 20,000 confirmed cases I think we are still getting bad data.

All below MOO MOO

I'll take a stab at answering this. I was reading this am the WHO requirements for follow up to note if folks were cleared (e.d recovered MOO). On that site for follow up of cases, it said that it should be done WITHIN 14-21 days iirc after first diagnosis or symptoms (I"ll try to see if I can find and update this post within 60 minutes, if I have time in RL to do so)

Anywhoooooooooo.

14 days ago total cases were 555 cases total. Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

So therefore, by WHO directives, those are the maximum numbers that could be documented as recovered...if that makes sense? Can you believe that just such a short time ago, the numbers were so low! So the current number of recovered at the JH site says 727. That's even more than the 555 cases.... but apples/oranges as those after the 555 noted could have had symptoms which pushed them into the 14 days total per WHO definition of after first diagnosis/symptom.

Hope that makes sense... off to look for what I'm talking about the WHO document... I have RL to attend to in 10 minutes, so I'll search for 10 minutes to do an ETA. Also, how the HECK are they gonna have resources to do the follow up testing on the 20,000 cases... SMDH

ETA Found it and screenshot source WHO-FFX protocol

"At a minimum, enrolled cases and close contacts will complete data and specimen collection at enrolment and 14-21 days later"



ETA #2. For those that want to read the entire 60 page doc
The First Few X (FFX) Cases and contact investigation protocol for 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection

ETA #3 Kind of a misnomer isn't it... calling it the "first FEW cases" ... I digress

 

[Hatfield]

I'll take a stab at answering this. I was reading this am the WHO requirements for follow up to note if folks were cleared (e.d recovered MOO). On that site for follow up of cases, it said that it should be done WITHIN 14-21 days iirc after first diagnosis or symptoms (I"ll try to see if I can find and update this post within 60 minutes, if I have time in RL to do so)

Anywhoooooooooo.

14 days ago total cases were 555 cases total. Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

So therefore, by WHO directives, those are the maximum numbers that could be documented as recovered...if that makes sense? Can you believe that just such a short time ago, the numbers were so low! So the current number of recovered at the JH site says 727. That's even more than the 555 cases.... but apples/oranges as those after the 555 noted could have had symptoms which pushed them into the 14 days total per WHO definition of after first diagnosis/symptom.

Hope that makes sense... off to look for what I'm talking about the WHO document... I have RL to attend to in 10 minutes, so I'll search for 10 minutes to do an ETA. Also, how the HECK are they gonna have resources to do the follow up testing on the 20,000 cases... SMDH

Thanks for replying and I agree with your initial assessment on where the rest of the 20,000 are. They are likely still sick and being monitored before they can be placed into the recovered or dead category because WHO has to wait longer to be able to determine for sure.

Which is why having the extra two categories I had mentioned would allow 100% balancing. Without the additional categories, we are left guessing where the outstanding people are. And since this likely to continue for some time with new cases coming in all the time, then having the two extra categories would really help us to see the trends as people shift from Cat #3 over to dead or recovered.

Thanks for replying about this. Its been driving me crazy.

 

[dotr]

Hong Kong reports coronavirus death as workers strike at hospitals
Feb 4 2020 rbbm.
''Hong Kong hospitals cut services as thousands of medical workers went on strike for a second day Tuesday to demand the border with mainland China be shut completely, as a new virus caused its first death in the semiautonomous territory and authorities feared it was spreading locally.

All but two of Hong Kong’s land and sea crossings with the mainland were closed at midnight after more than 2,000 hospital workers went on strike Monday. Hong Kong health authorities reported two additional patients without any known travel to the virus epicenter, bringing the number of locally transmitted cases up to four.

The growing caseload “indicates significant risk of community transmission” and could portend a “large-scale” outbreak, said Chuang Shuk-kwan, head of the communicable disease branch at the Center for Health Protection.''

 

[Hatfield]

Below shows how adding the two extra categories would allow 100% balancing:

Begins with identification of a confirmed case. Then after a confirmed case, that person MUST be placed into one of the 4 categories below:

The Confirmed Case Totals = (Cat 1 + Cat 2 + Cat 3 + Cat 4)

Cat 1 = Dead
Cat 2 = Recovered
Cat 3 = Still sick and trying to recover
Cat 4 = Missing / Lost track of person

Then as people in Cat 3 get to their final result, their number would be removed from Cat 3 and added to either Cat 1 or Cat 2 or Cat 4

 

[Amonet]

I hope so too.

My biggest frustration with the numbers is it seems that once they determined someone definitely has the Virus, then there is only two results (Recovered or Dead).

So why in the world are the total number confirmed to have it around 20,000 and yet the resultant figures for recovered or dead is so small and not even close to 20,000 total.

Unless those 20,000 are all still sick in the hospital then the numbers dont make sense to me. Where are the rest of the 20,000 people?

I think what would have helped them is if they had a 3rd result category called "still sick and trying to recover" and another 4th category called "Missing" or "Lost Track of Person". That last category could be used for people that walked out of the hospital and cannot be found now. Having these 2 extra result categories would allow 100% balancing.
Each confirmed case would be accounted for in one of the 4 categories. And as the people in Category #3 either die or get better, then their number would shift over to the proper recovered or dead category.

Until the "final result -dead or recovered" numbers begin to balance to the 20,000 confirmed cases I think we are still getting bad data.

,

Yes, that is a great idea.

For now I'm just guessing that about 14 days ago there were only 500 cases and that the recovered numbers are going to start going up very steeply in the next two weeks.

Again, it's Hubei where the greatest problem lies as we don't know if everyone diagnosed was kept in hospital in order to be marked as 'recovered' when released. But I think for everywhere else we can pretty much assume that the Confirmed is a running total, and that if you remove deceased and recovered from that total, you're left with the number who are in various stages of infection or getting better.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Thanks for replying and I agree with your initial assessment on where the rest of the 20,000 are. They are likely still sick and being monitored before they can be placed into the recovered or dead category because WHO has to wait longer to be able to determine for sure.

Which is why having the extra two categories I had mentioned would allow 100% balancing. Without the additional categories, we are left guessing where the outstanding people are. And since this likely to continue for some time with new cases coming in all the time, then having the two extra categories would really help us to see the trends as people shift from Cat #3 over to dead or recovered.

Thanks for replying about this. Its been driving me crazy.

I did three ETA's after your response also, FYI. Off to do RL for a bit.

Thanks to all for keeping the thread updated and keeping us all in the know.

 

[dotr]

Below shows how adding the two extra categories would allow 100% balancing:

Begins with identification of a confirmed case. Then after a confirmed case, that person MUST be placed into one of the 4 categories below:

The Confirmed Case Totals = (Cat 1 + Cat 2 + Cat 3 + Cat 4)

Cat 1 = Dead
Cat 2 = Recovered
Cat 3 = Still sick and trying to recover
Cat 4 = Missing / Lost track of person

Then as people in Cat 3 get to their final result, their number would be removed from Cat 3 and added to either Cat 1 or Cat 2 or Cat 4

FWIW, interestingly- some in the Chinese community might be more likely to designate your number 1 category as a number 4 category..
Is four a deadly number for the Chinese?
''The numbers 4, 14 and 24 are associated with death for Cantonese-speaking Chinese people, as the words for these numbers sound like the words for “death”, “must die” and “easy to die”, respectively. A previous study in the United States investigating psychological stress engendered by fear of the number 4 found more cardiac deaths in Chinese and Japanese people, compared with white Americans, on the 4th day of the month.

Objective: To determine whether more cardiac deaths occur in Hong Kong Chinese people on the days of the month with “deathly connotations” (4, 14 and 24).''

 

[gregjrichards]

Foreign Office warns ALL 30,000 British people in China to LEAVE as global death toll from deadly coronavirus outbreak hits 427 with more than 20,000 infected

Coronavirus: Foreign Office warns ALL Britons to leave China | Daily Mail Online

This is unprecedented. Do you think other countries know the situation is a lot more grave than the numbers the Chinese government are admitting?

Thank you to all of you for all your news updates and posts.