Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV

[jjenny]

I too cannot see what the endgame can possibly be in China to control it with so many infected and such a long incubation period. Are they capable of having borders closed for months until a vaccine, or what? It would appear to be too widespread in China now to track MOO. This is going to be a long protracted event. Although futures in US are not down this am (folks investing in things like SQQQ made out well yesterday) , this is going to affect world economies and markets as mentioned above post. MOO

I wonder if the folks coming back to US are going to have to sign something to voluntary quarantine themselves.

Eventually if containment fails they will have to threat it like the flu, I think. I mean, we don't lock down millions because of the flu. The immune system will have to do the work, and if it doesn't, you are out of luck.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Eventually if containment fails they will have to threat it like the flu, I think. I mean, we don't lock down millions because of the flu. The immune system will have to do the work, and if it doesn't, you are out of luck.

And the even bigger question is, will the coronavirus be seasonal? I've not seen the answer to that.

 

[Taskforce88]

First death outside of China reported in West Bengal.

 

[Taskforce88]

It's simply not possible to lock down travel and cities across the globe. Let's just hope this thing burns out in the coming weeks.

 

[Amonet]

I too cannot see what the endgame can possibly be in China to control it with so many infected and such a long incubation period. Are they capable of having borders closed for months until a vaccine, or what? It would appear to be too widespread in China now to track MOO. This is going to be a long protracted event. Although futures in US are not down this am (folks investing in things like SQQQ made out well yesterday) , this is going to affect world economies and markets as mentioned above post. MOO

I wonder if the folks coming back to US are going to have to sign something to voluntary quarantine themselves.

My thoughts would be that the hope is that quarantining Hubei province has been done in the hopes of arresting the spread rate of the virus to slow it down in order for fewer cases to come out of that province and give a little bit of extra time for a vaccine to be developed.

In general, flu spreads easiest among people who are close together in larger groups, especially indoors in winter (when people are more likely to be inside due to the cold weather outside).

So, what they've done is tried to keep people indoors and away from close-contact with too many other people. It's like closing down a school for a week during a major flu outbreak, or a meningitis outbreak...you do it to try and reduce the number of vectors spreading the virus. So let's say instead of Hubei exporting 10,000 cases of the virus after the shutdown, they export only 50....that would be a 'win' .... it would be a lot easier to keep track of that way and use ring methods to track contactees of confirmed cases in the way that was done with SARS. By slowing it down in that way, then you have more time to develop a vaccine even if the virus is still spreading at the lower rate.

 

[dotr]

If those markets are closed and until they know for sure what/if animals are causing the virus, what will people eat? rbbm
A new report indicates that the deadly Chinese coronavirus may not actually have originated at a wet market in Wuhan
''New research suggests that the Wuhan coronavirus, which has killed at least 81 people and infected more than 2,700 others, may not have originated in the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market in Wuhan, China.

The virus is zoonotic, meaning it can be passed from animals to humans. So experts thought people in Wuhan likely caught the virus from snakes in a wet market, where meat is sold alongside live animals, often in poorly regulated conditions.''

''One way to establish for certain whether the virus outbreak originated at the market would be to take samples from the animals in the market as well as local animal populations, but the market has been cleared and disinfected, a group of microbiology professors wrote in The Conversation.

Health officials in Wuhan closed the market on January 1 and have banned the sale of live animals at wet markets.''

 

[dixiegirl1035]

First death outside of China reported in West Bengal.

Link please on this fast moving thread. Are you referring to this one that some suspect, but hasn't had the confirmatory test yet?

Thailand Man, Suspected of Having Coronavirus, Dies in Kolkata Hospital After 1 Week in ICU
A Thailand national, suspected to be suffering from Coronavirus, died at a private hospital in West Bengal’s Kolkata on Monday.

However, state health department officials said the symptoms of the Thailand man were unlikely to be that of the deadly Corona virus. “Necessary samples have been sent to the state-run Beliaghata Infectious Diseases Hospital for tests. Results are yet to come,” said an official from the health department.

 

[sloane7777]

Most packages and parts will come by ship, and I doubt the virus would live long enough to be a problem.

Panic is a common response, but it's rarely a commonsense response.

Let's, for now, assume this is like a yearly flu but one without a vaccine. So someone who normally takes the vaccine for health reasons, or someone who takes it because they're in a caring situation (to protect the person they're caring for) has a lot more reason to be concerned than most people do.

They, especially, should not panic, but maybe think about what they could do if it becomes necessary. So if you can stock up on a few things that will last, and will get used whether there's an emergency or not, that's a good idea. Get an extra box of washing powder and make sure you have a full bottle of bleach. Basic cough and cold treatments, sore throat sweets, tylenol, ibuprofen, some lemons, a couple of boxes of tissues. Some menthol gel or those menthol things you stick up your nose (yes, I know I have a way with words). Maybe some throwaway gloves. A spare bottle of hand soap and some hand sanitizer for each person in the family to carry in their bags or pockets. You could fill the gas tank in case at some point there's a state of emergency and it's hard to go out for gas during daytime hours when you're at work. Think about whether you have a job where you can work from home. Ask your workplace if they have a plan and ask if they can share any tips with employees, or maybe they need to stock up on hand sanitizers and plastic gloves?

Hahaha BBM well to respond in my own words my hubby is a prepper so we have a crapload of Stuff "in case It happens" but I do not have a supply of the little mint things you stick up your nose and I LOVE THOSE! thank you!

 

[Bravo]

Another thing is to boost your immune system. Eat well, vitamins, exercise and get out for some fresh air walks. No matter how cold. of course walk in parks etc. where there isn't a massive amount of people. All things we already know but winter and virus season is a good time to start.

 

[Bravo]

Quebec’s health ministry investigating 3 potential new coronavirus cases

 

[Bravo]

Ottawa woman pleading with government to get husband out of Wuhan

 

[dotr]

rbbm.
Wuhan people cry out 'stay strong' from windows
''The neighbours who spread cheer
The deadly outbreak comes as China celebrates one of the most important dates in its calendar - Lunar New Year.

Imagine Christmas and Thanksgiving all rolled into one - typically a time filled with lots of cheer. For many, it's the only chance in a year they have to meet up with their family and exchange gifts of food and money''.

''On social media site Weibo, the phrase "Wuhan jiayou" has been trending.

''One new restaurant owner in Wuhan spent the Lunar New Year festival packing food for medical workers in the city, according to state news outlet Changjiang Daily.''
''According to a report by news site Beijing News, some hospitals in Wuhan have experienced food shortages. Two residents living in Wuhan had previously told the BBC that people in the city have been trying to stockpile food.''

''One villager in Changde, a neighbouring province of Hubei where Wuhan is located, decided he would donate almost 15,000 face masks, according to news outlet the Xiaoxiang Morning Herald.

Hao Jin had last year worked in a mask production factory. He eventually resigned from the job but the company could not afford to pay him his salary. He was instead given 15,000 masks - worth 20,000 yuan (£2,207; $2,883) as a form of compensation.''
Excellent documentary..

''Each year in China more than 130 million migrant workers travel home for the New Year's holiday—the one time they'll reunite with family all year. The mass exodus constitutes the world's largest human migration. Amid this chaos, director Lixin Fan focuses on one couple who embark upon a two-day journey to see their children.''

 

[dotr]

Breaking news..
January 28, 2020 10:37 am rbbm.
German man who never visited China catches coronavirus through human-to-human transmission
''Germany has declared its first confirmed case of the coronavirus after a 33-year-old man contracted it from a colleague visiting his workplace from Shanghai, in one of the first cases of person-to-person transmission outside China.

The case raises concerns about the spread of the flu-like virus that broke out in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year and has killed 106 people and infected more than 2,800 people.

It spreads in droplets from coughs and sneezes and has an incubation period of 1-14 days.''

 

[Amonet]

A BBC article debunks several rumours/conspiracy theories which have been spreading about the new Coronavirus.

Bat soup videos -- apparently not a common dish in China and the video of the woman eating bat soup was from a totally different part of the world.

Outbreak 'planned' -- the evidence presented by conspiracy theorists does not match the facts, for instance the virus suggested to have been patented months/years ago is not the same virus as this one.

'Bioweapon' conspiracies -- no evidence.

'Wuhan nurse video' -- no evidence she is a nurse; apparently she's not wearing the biosecurity suit that is currently in use in Wuhan.


Read more about the reasons these can be debunked at the link:

China coronavirus: Misinformation spreads online

 

[Medstudies]

Taiwan reports first case of domestic Wuhan virus transmission
...
“Taiwan's Central Epidemic Command Centre said the latest patient, the eighth, was the first case of transmission on the island as in all the previous cases the people had been infected first in China.

The new patient, a man in his 50s from central Taiwan, was infected by his wife after she returned from working in China and before she was subsequently diagnosed, the command centre said.”

 

[Amonet]

Taiwan reports first case of domestic Wuhan virus transmission
...
“Taiwan's Central Epidemic Command Centre said the latest patient, the eighth, was the first case of transmission on the island as in all the previous cases the people had been infected first in China.

The new patient, a man in his 50s from central Taiwan, was infected by his wife after she returned from working in China and before she was subsequently diagnosed, the command centre said.”

I would say it's not these cases but the next generation (the man infected by the wife who was in China going on to infect another person) that is going to be the figure to watch when contemplating how much spread there might be outside China.

 

[margarita25]

Coronavirus Live Updates: Cases Up Nearly 60%, as Airports Expand Screenings

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There's been a run of surgical masks in the US because of the coronavirus scare. You don't need them, physicians say - CNN

“Right now, there's no evidence that [wearing face masks] is going to help prevent that infection," Chiu, a professor of laboratory medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, told CNN. "I would not recommend that someone in the US who does not have direct exposure, did not recently travel to China...or in general that you go buy a face mask."”

Physicians wear masks, but the US public shouldn't
Americans are scooping up two kinds of masks

• Surgical masks

• N95 respirators

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ASU declines student petition to cancel classes in wake of new coronavirus case

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Coronavirus update: Hong Kong closes China borders - CNN

“The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is working to share its test for Wuhan coronavirus with other labs in the United States — but for now, it remains the only US lab that can confirm cases of the virus.

For now, CDC is continuing to ask lab partners to send samples to the agency for testing because it’s more efficient and ensures results are as accurate as possible, officials said.

What is the test? The test developed by CDC can diagnose the novel coronavirus in respiratory serum samples. The CDC has posted a “blueprint” to make the test, and said the agency is “refining” this use of the test so it can provide optimal guidance to states and labs on how to use it.

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said CDC is working “as fast as we can,” but added "but it’s [going to be] another week or two.”

“We’re working on a plan now so that priority states get these kits as soon as possible,” Messonnier said during a press briefing on Monday. “But in the coming weeks we’ll share these tests with domestic and international partners so they can test for the virus themselves.””

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11:24 am: The Trump administration expands coronavirus screening to 20 US airports

“U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar warned that the coronavirus raging across mainland China is a "potentially very serious public health threat," adding that the Trump administration is expanding screening for the virus from five to 20 U.S. airports. "We are constantly preparing for the possibility that the situation could worsen," Azar said during a press briefing.”

Coronavirus live updates: Outbreak has killed 106 people and infected nearly 4,700

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"This could be a massive disaster": What happens if the coronavirus hits China’s internment camps?

“The repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang is already one of the most harrowing — and yet one of the most neglected — humanitarian crises in the world today. And as Adrian Zenz, one of the leading researchers on China’s mass internment system, noted, “The coronavirus could add an entirely new dimension to the Xinjiang crisis.””

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“During the press conference, Azar also noted that the country quickly made the virus's genetic sequence available to scientists, ultimately leading the CDC to create a rapid diagnostic test in a week's time.

Meanwhile, this CDC on Tuesday announced its updated China travel recommendations, while the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released its new website for novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV.”

China spurned CDC offer to send team to help contain coronavirus: US Health Secretary

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FDA:

2019-nCoV

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Coronavirus in the U.S.: Map of where the virus has been confirmed across the country

“This map will be updated as more cases in the U.S. are confirmed. As of Jan. 28, there were five: one each in Illinois, Arizona and Washington state, and two in California.”

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Plane arriving within the hour at San Fran from Wuhan. There are flights going out today. Original media said flight arriving at San Fran, and then it changed to Orange County on Wednesday. Perhaps two flights as IIRC other countries are doing one flight for non-symptomatic folks, and a second with symptomatic folks?


China Southern Airlines (CZ) #659 ✈ FlightAware

 

[What if...]

MOO here...

I know there have been a lot of references comparing this novel coronavirus to SARS, or a really bad flu season, but I have to say this outbreak is much more concerning for several reasons. Here are a few...

1. “The number of known cases of the new virus increased by nearly 60 percent overnight. A shortage of test kits has led experts to warn that the real number may be higher.“ I don’t believe they really have any idea just how big this thing is yet. And though I don’t know the actual processes in place, I would think they are testing for the virus in living patients prior to testing those that are already deceased. In which case, the mortality rate may be a lot higher than currently reported.
2. This virus can apparently have a long incubation period, during which time the infected individual will show no symptoms. That makes this virus much harder to control since it’s also believed that it can be spread from person to person during the incubation period. It’s very difficult to quarantine that which you are not aware of.

3. Notably, the new coronavirus provides a new lineage for almost half of its genome, with no close genetic relationships to other viruses within the subgenus of sarbecovirus.” —> basically it’s saying it’s completely brand new to #coronavirus subgenus.

   We’re dealing with something entirely new - and it appears to show evidence of rapid mutation ! The unknown is bad enough, but rapid mutation could seriously hinder our ability to create an effective vaccine.
4. I believe that actions speak louder than words, so I have a very difficult time believing that China sees this as another SARS episode. Over 60 million people basically quarantined, public announcement of millions of dollars dedicated to controlling the spread, construction of 3 new hospitals, etc,...

I’ll leave it at this condensed version for now, but DEFINITELY MY OWN OPINION.... the best they can hope for right now is that the mortality rate stays consistent with that of a “Really Bad Flu Season”

Coronavirus outbreak: Americans hope for evacuation from Wuhan as death toll rises

• Rising toll: 106 people are dead and more than 4,515 cases have been confirmed in mainland China, as the Wuhan coronavirus spreads across Asia and the rest of the world.
• China on lockdown: Nearly 60 million people are under partial or full lockdowns in Chinese cities.
• Global spread: There are more than 60 confirmed cases in 17 places outside of China, including at least five in the US. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention raised its travel precautions for China to its highest level.
• Transmission: China’s health minister said people can spread the virus before symptoms show, but US experts say there is no evidence of this.
• 
  
• SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, was a coronavirus identified in southern China that infected 8,000 people and killed more than 700 between 2002 and 2003.”

Coronavirus outbreak: Latest news and live updates - CNN

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Coronavirus Live Updates: Hong Kong Restricts Travel From Mainland China as Infections Exceed 4,500

“The number of known cases of the new virus increased by nearly 60 percent overnight. A shortage of test kits has led experts to warn that the real number may be higher.

Death toll exceeds 100 as number of infections skyrockets.
The outbreak of a mysterious new virus is rapidly spreading, the Chinese authorities said on Tuesday, as the official account of known cases jumped nearly 60 percent overnight and the death toll exceeded 100 for the first time.”

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“Thailand has reported 14 cases of infection; Hong Kong has eight; the United States, Taiwan, Australia and Macau have five each; Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia each have reported four; France has three; Canada and Vietnam have two; and Nepal, Cambodia and Germany each have one. There have been no deaths outside China.“
”

SBM

 

[margarita25]

The Deceptively Simple Number Sparking Coronavirus Fears
Here’s what the oft-cited R0 number tells us about the new outbreak—and what it doesn’t.

“When a new disease emerges, health organizations turn to a seemingly simple number to gauge whether the outbreak will spread. It’s called the basic reproduction number—R0, pronounced R-nought—and though useful for decision makers, it’s a nightmare for public communication. In brief, R0 is the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person, in a population that’s never seen the disease before. If R0 is 3, then on average every case will create three new cases. But even though it seems incredibly straightforward, it’s hard to calculate and tricky to interpret.

R0 is important because if it’s greater than 1, the infection will probably keep spreading, and if it’s less than 1, the outbreak will likely peter out. So it offers vital information to organizations and nations as they consider how to respond to an outbreak—such as the one the world is currently experiencing.”

[...]

In the past week, at least six teams ofresearchers, along with the World Health Organization, have published estimates of R0 for the new coronavirus. All these groups used different methods, but their results have been mostly consistent, with estimates hovering between 2 and 3. WHO was a little more conservativethan the others, with estimates of 1.4 to 2.5. One Chinese team is a clear outlier, with estimates of 3.3 to 5.5. And a British-led group initially published a high average value of 3.8 last week before revising it downward to 2.5 as new data emerged.

In the intervening time, however, some observers seized upon the 3.8 number, with one Harvard doctor describing it as “thermonuclear pandemic level bad” in a tweet that has since been retweeted more than 16,000 times. That’s a dubious interpretation, and here are six reasons why.“

-more at link