margarita25
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Britons returning from China to be 'safely isolated' for 14 days, says Hancock – as it happened
“More British scientists have been giving their reactions to the news that Britons evacuated from Wuhan will be placed in a 14-day quarantine.
Prof Mark Harris, Professor of Virology, University of Leeds:
The plans for an organised quarantine of people evacuated from Wuhan makes much more sense than a proposal that people would quarantine themselves. There is now very good scientific evidence that the incubation period before symptoms appear can be as long as 14 days. In addition, there is some limited evidence of spread from people who are not yet showing symptoms. Both of these issues highlight the need for quarantine. Although there are appropriately some concerns raised about the human rights issue, these need to be considered in the light of the wider risk to the population of the potential spread of the virus. Restricting person-to-person contact is the most effective way of preventing this spreading.
Prof Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham:
Given the level of coronavirus infection, it makes sense to quarantine and test people being evacuated form Wuhan City. But we might lose sight of the fact that the outbreak seems more widespread than that and at some time, probably soon, a decision will have to be made about all Britons located in Hubei province and China in general, especially if the virus outbreak continues to escalate. If these people also need to be brought back, then the task in hand would probably become unmanageable.
The rapidity of this outbreak is startling and certainly much more rapid than Sars. The reasons for this are unclear, but clearly the larger the outbreak grows the more difficult it becomes to contain it using usual infection control measures – identifying then isolating infected people and tracing and monitoring their contacts.
At the moment, virus that has been exported from China to other countries has not led to significant onward transmission, although the identification of infected individuals in some of those countries that have not had direct contact with China is concerning as it reminds us that the virus has the capability of being passed on.
There are still too many unknowns – the true scale of the problem, the frequency of symptom-less infection, the amount of transmission that occurs by people with and without symptoms, the extent at which infected individuals have travelled and their destination – to be certain. It is certainly possible for this virus to become widespread and eventually become just another circulating human respiratory virus, but it’s still very early days and with little onward transmission in other parts of the world, this might not happen. If this scenario did play out, however, then we need to get a better handle on the relative frequency of severe disease and death so that healthcare structures are able to deal with it.”
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ETA: EXACTLY!!!! This is what I’ve been saying!! Get the horse out!!!
—-
ETA2: Back to Japan. Man this is all so multidimensional.
And what’s going on in Shanghai and Hong Kong today?
I’m starting to sound like a crazy woman now. For real though, this “Case” is ONE BIG WORLD MAP. Many, many “cases”, AND THE POINTS ARE CLOSING IN.
Talk about “collecting the dots”—
@Foxfire - I think this is the most complex “case” I’ve ever encountered on WS. We could be here for years, God please let’s hope not. But these early notes are very important if we are going to have any kind of semblance of order going forward.
ullingmyhairout:
—-
Everything that is HAPPENINg RIgHT NOW determines what happens going forward. I think this is what the presser may be about tomorrow, “declaring a world global emergency”.
It’s happening right now. It’s not just about China. This is bigger than China. It might have started there but this is a global issue.
Again, no “drama queen” here, this is Science, biology, epidemiology...every kind of ology.
So many facets. Infinite ripple effects. repercussions and ramifications.
“More British scientists have been giving their reactions to the news that Britons evacuated from Wuhan will be placed in a 14-day quarantine.
Prof Mark Harris, Professor of Virology, University of Leeds:
The plans for an organised quarantine of people evacuated from Wuhan makes much more sense than a proposal that people would quarantine themselves. There is now very good scientific evidence that the incubation period before symptoms appear can be as long as 14 days. In addition, there is some limited evidence of spread from people who are not yet showing symptoms. Both of these issues highlight the need for quarantine. Although there are appropriately some concerns raised about the human rights issue, these need to be considered in the light of the wider risk to the population of the potential spread of the virus. Restricting person-to-person contact is the most effective way of preventing this spreading.
Prof Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham:
Given the level of coronavirus infection, it makes sense to quarantine and test people being evacuated form Wuhan City. But we might lose sight of the fact that the outbreak seems more widespread than that and at some time, probably soon, a decision will have to be made about all Britons located in Hubei province and China in general, especially if the virus outbreak continues to escalate. If these people also need to be brought back, then the task in hand would probably become unmanageable.
The rapidity of this outbreak is startling and certainly much more rapid than Sars. The reasons for this are unclear, but clearly the larger the outbreak grows the more difficult it becomes to contain it using usual infection control measures – identifying then isolating infected people and tracing and monitoring their contacts.
At the moment, virus that has been exported from China to other countries has not led to significant onward transmission, although the identification of infected individuals in some of those countries that have not had direct contact with China is concerning as it reminds us that the virus has the capability of being passed on.
There are still too many unknowns – the true scale of the problem, the frequency of symptom-less infection, the amount of transmission that occurs by people with and without symptoms, the extent at which infected individuals have travelled and their destination – to be certain. It is certainly possible for this virus to become widespread and eventually become just another circulating human respiratory virus, but it’s still very early days and with little onward transmission in other parts of the world, this might not happen. If this scenario did play out, however, then we need to get a better handle on the relative frequency of severe disease and death so that healthcare structures are able to deal with it.”
—-
ETA: EXACTLY!!!! This is what I’ve been saying!! Get the horse out!!!
—-
ETA2: Back to Japan. Man this is all so multidimensional.
And what’s going on in Shanghai and Hong Kong today?
I’m starting to sound like a crazy woman now. For real though, this “Case” is ONE BIG WORLD MAP. Many, many “cases”, AND THE POINTS ARE CLOSING IN.
Talk about “collecting the dots”—
@Foxfire - I think this is the most complex “case” I’ve ever encountered on WS. We could be here for years, God please let’s hope not. But these early notes are very important if we are going to have any kind of semblance of order going forward.
ullingmyhairout:—-
Everything that is HAPPENINg RIgHT NOW determines what happens going forward. I think this is what the presser may be about tomorrow, “declaring a world global emergency”.
It’s happening right now. It’s not just about China. This is bigger than China. It might have started there but this is a global issue.
Again, no “drama queen” here, this is Science, biology, epidemiology...every kind of ology.
So many facets. Infinite ripple effects. repercussions and ramifications.
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