Ebola outbreak - general thread #1

[Yoda]

Six Ambulances packed with 24 suspected Ebola patients were already on standby as the opening ceremony for a 120-bed Ebola Treatment Facility constructed by the government of Liberia with technical support from the World Health Organization was going on.

Mr. Sam Bropleh, an Ambulance driver said he had been waiting with patients in the vehicle at the facility. Bropleh was frustrated that his patients could not get in as the formalities of an opening ceremony attended by senior government officials were still on.

Three members of a single family sat upright in the Ambulance but they were dead. The woman believed to be in her late thirties had her ten-year-old son’s head on her lap and the other son thirteen years old was sitting up in the Ambulance near the other two, but they were all dead. It was a pathetic sight and William Ross driver of the First Responders Ambulance was dismayed.


“This morning we left the Redemption Hospital for JFK. We have ten persons that were on the Ambulance because of the delay, almost three hours; out of the ten persons we have three that have died. We have seven more on the Ambulance and we don’t know what will happen to them in the next hour,” he said tears almost rolling down his cheeks.

http://www.frontpageafricaonline.co...0-bed-ebola-treatment-center-opens-in-liberia

 

[Sonya610]

If a ship was quarantined, it would have been for another reason... unless there was a swarm of said mosquitos as passengers.

I agree, plus malaria is common and widespread; Mexico, South America, Africa, the Middle East, India etc... all have it so if it could take hold in the U.S. it would have centuries ago.

See world malaria map here:

http://www2.keelpno.gr/blog/?p=3758&lang=en

 

[ellemo]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, increasing their warnings on Ebola, is advising airlines and jet staff to treat all body fluids as infectious, even on domestic flights.

“Treat all body fluids as though they are infectious,” said the latest CDC update to airlines. The update is apparently meant to stress the rights airlines have to block anyone who appears "ill" from boarding.

Umm, shouldn't you do that even if there was no chance of an Ebola outbreak? I mean, ick! (though it is important to allow airlines to block anyone who is ill)

 

[Yoda]

Nurse bitten by child infected with ebola is flown back to Switzerland as a precaution.

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/man-bitten-by-ebola-patient-flown-to-switzerland-596355

 

[SyraKelly]

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/09/22/Spain--Ebola-test-drug-out-of-supply-worldwide

 

[Yoda]

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/09/22/Spain--Ebola-test-drug-out-of-supply-worldwide

From your link

The priest, Manuel Garcia Viejo, 69, was in serious condition and was suffering from dehydration, with kidney and liver complications, said Javier Rodriguez, chief health officer for the Madrid region.

It doesn't sound like he is doing well

 

[Lyra500]

From your link



It doesn't sound like he is doing well

Sadly no - one would hope that his dehydration will be simple enough to treat, but if his liver and kidneys are already starting to fail, given his age the prognosis does not sound good.

I hope they can get hold of some serum from a survivor, but wonder whether this poor man has passed the point when this can help enough to pull him through.

I hope at the very least that they can keep him relatively comfortable unlike the poor patients in Africa where they do not even have access to sufficient pain killers and other medicines to ease patients' suffering in many cases.

 

[Lyra500]

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/

1. COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION 5843 (probable, confirmed and suspected; see Annex 2) cases and 2803 deaths have been reported in the current outbreak of EVD as at 20 September 2014 by the Ministry of Health of Guinea, as at 17 September 2014 by the Ministry of Health of Liberia, and as at 19 September 2014 by the Ministry of Health of Sierra Leone

 

[Soulmagent]

http://news.sky.com/story/1339751/ebola-lockdown-92-bodies-found-in-sierra-leone

Some 123 people contacted authorities during the lockdown, believing they might be infected.

Of these, 56 tested positive for ebola, 31 tested negative and 36 were still awaiting their results, officials said.

Those number dont really sound horrible in light of the 6 million person population, so either things are clearing up or people are not calling in .

 

[Yoda]

Hospital in Perth treating possible Ebola case.

http://www.nst.com.my/node/36350

 

[Yoda]

http://news.sky.com/story/1339751/ebola-lockdown-92-bodies-found-in-sierra-leone



Those number dont really sound horrible in light of the 6 million person population, so either things are clearing up or people are not calling in .

I agree. I can't figure out if officials are under reporting or just don't know.

This article talks to cemetery workers from just one cemetery,

But the bodies pouring in to the graveyard tell a different story. In the last eight days alone, 110 Ebola victims have been buried at King Tom Cemetery, according to the supervisor, Abdul Rahman Parker, suggesting an outbreak that is much more deadly than either the government or international health officials have announced.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/world/africa/23ebola.html?_r=1

 

[jjenny]

I agree. I can't figure out if officials are under reporting or just don't know.

This article talks to cemetery workers from just one cemetery,


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/world/africa/23ebola.html?_r=1

Just as I suspected.
If they only reported 10 deaths in that area, but there are 110 graves, then they are under-reporting by a factor of 10 at least.
I am positive the death rate is a lot higher, and the death toll is a lot higher than what we are being told.

 

[Yoda]

Interesting and confusing. If someone can make sense of this please help me. TIA

They also calculated the death rate to be about 70 percent among hospitalized patients but noted many Ebola cases were only identified after they died. So far, about 2,800 deaths have been attributed to Ebola.

WHO numbers:
5800 cases 2800 deaths
70% death rate among hospitalized.
If they have a 30% chance in the hospital, what is the chance for those turned away?

If we assume the chances of survival are better in a hospital, then the minimum number of deaths in 5800 cases should be 4060. That is a huge difference from 2800 deaths.

http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/a...y-november-if-no-changes/nhSLf/?__federated=1

 

[jjenny]

Interesting and confusing. If someone can make sense of this please help me. TIA



WHO numbers:
5800 cases 2800 deaths
70% death rate among hospitalized.
If they have a 30% chance in the hospital, what is the chance for those turned away?

http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/a...y-november-if-no-changes/nhSLf/?__federated=1

These numbers don't even add up. 2800 death out of 5800 cases is 48 % death rate, not 70 %.
I think all the numbers we get are way off and it's worse than what we are being told.

 

[Sonya610]

Interesting and confusing. If someone can make sense of this please help me. TIA

The numbers are way off, I also read somewhere that the death rate varies depending on region, I think in Zaire they said the death rate was 90%.

The average EVD case fatality rate is around 50%. Case fatality rates have varied from 25% to 90% in past outbreaks.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

 

[jjenny]

"In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps following its current trajectory, without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/h...4-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?_r=1

 

[jjenny]

The numbers are way off, I also read somewhere that the death rate varies depending on region, I think in Zaire they said the death rate was 90%.

WHO is saying that both the number of cases and mortality rates are vastly underestimated in officially reported numbers. By WHO's estimation, the death rate from the current outbreak is at ~70 % across all affected regions.

 

[doubt]

First, you destroy the greatest health care system in the world.

Then, you allow open borders so illegal aliens can cross into the United States of America bringing with them contagious diseases and mysterious illnesses.

Then, you go play golf.

JMO that this was part of the plan all along.


"According to Richard Preston, the disaster in that ‘building was a kind of experiment.’ “Now they would see what Ebola could do naturally in a population of monkeys living in a confined air space, in a kind of city, as it were. The Ebola Reston virus jumped quickly from room to room… Ebola apparently drifted through the building’s air-handling ducts.” (pp. 251-252)"

"The virus entered their bodies through “contact with lungs; everyone at USAMRIID concluded that Ebola can spread through the air.” (p. 254)"

"The Ebola Reston virus is almost certainly transmitted by some airborne route. Those Hazleton workers who had the virus—I’m pretty sure they got it through the air.” (p. 257)"

"Karl Johnson, one of the discoverers of the Ebola Virus, said to the author, “A virus can be useful to a species by thinning it out.” (p. 83)"


http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/65053

this is not the political thread.

 

[Muffet]

CDC report predicts as many as 1.4 million cases of Ebola by January

... (CDC) released a report Tuesday predicting as many as 550,000 to 1.4 million cases of the Ebola virus in Liberia and Sierra Leone alone, by the end of January.

The CDC calculations are based, in part, on assumptions that cases have been dramatically underreported.
....

Full story here:
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/09/23/who-forecasts-more-than-20000-ebola-cases-by-november-2/

 

[Lyra500]

This is an extensive but fascinating report covering the outbreak from the index case in Guinea through to the present.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/ebola-6-months/en/

It gives a picture of the course of the outbreak and current situation in each of the key countries. Only part way through but really interesting and informative.

The section on the 'gap' between the index case and the official identification of the cause of the outbreak is very interesting.

Just working my way through the page about Liberia - this paragraph was sobering:

The high season for malaria transmission is under way. Stocks of antimalarial medicines and bednets have been depleted. Some experts estimate that the number of deaths from malaria may soon surpass those from Ebola virus disease.

and this was just heart-breaking

According to staff at Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), one of the most emotionally-wrenching jobs is that of guarding the gates at the organization’s overflowing treatment facilities in Monrovia, where desperate families and their ill loved ones must be turned away in large numbers every day. MSF staff are then left to watch, helplessly and hopelessly, as patients die, alone and without dignity, on the grounds beyond the locked gates.

This though from the section about Nigeria is positive

The fact that the worst-case scenario never happened supports two important lessons.

First, conventional control tools – like early detection, contact tracing, isolation and monitoring of those exposed, adequate supplies of personal protective equipment for medical and nursing staff, and strict procedures for infection prevention and control – are indeed highly effective when a country’s first imported case is detected early enough and managed as recommended by WHO.

Second, if Nigeria can control an outbreak caused by such a deadly and highly contagious virus, right from the start, any country in the world can do the same.