Found Deceased FL - Peter & Daniel Runzulli, 51 & 18 - Private Plane in Distress - Jacksonville - 19 Dec 2018

[Richrd]

.

Florida
Peter Renzulli, 51 & Daniel Runzulli, 18
Private Plane In Distress
9:45 A.M., Eastern Standard Time,
Thursday, 20 Dec 2018


1)) Jacksonville.Com:
N.J. father and son were returning from Disney vaction when plane crashed

2)) Google Supplements & Updates:
https://www.google.com/search?ei=sh.....1..gws-wiz.......33i299j0i22i30.rPrlq8fCLW4​

[Message 6157
Thread 406933]
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[JanetElaine]

Their flight path from Orlando: N307JM Live Flight Tracking and History (PA46 owned by REED KENNETH L) ✈ 20-Dec-2018 ✈ KISM - 39N ✈ FlightAware

Note that it says 'landed' but only the part of the route in green is verified flown. The green line ends off the coast of Huguenot Memorial Park east of Jacksonville. The white line to destination is an approximate (projected).

You can see around 3pm CET both speed and altitude literally drop. Looks like the speed was a bit iffy before that. Also storms in the area.

 

[JanetElaine]

According to this it was slightly more southern near Ponte Vedra Beach. Crash of a Piper PA-46-350P Malibu off Ponte Vedra Beach: 2 killed | Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives

 

[altissima]

Yikes. Yeah, the abrupt change in altitude near the end of the track log is distressing. Flight Track Log ✈ N307JM ✈ 20-Dec-2018 ✈ KISM - 39N ✈ FlightAware

 

[JanetElaine]

Since I haven't seen a picture of Daniel in the media, here's his Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/daniel.renzulli.9

It sounds like they are sure they're deceased. May they rest in peace.

 

[glamourkitty1922]

The search has been suspeneded. Father, son on plane that crashed Thursday in Atlantic Ocean

 

[altissima]

Speculation that weather could’ve been a factor

Plane crashes with 2 on board near Mayport, Coast Guard says

“"A distance of almost 3 miles of straight down in less than two minutes. That suggests to me an in-flight breakup or some sort of loss of control, causing the airplane to spiral down," Booth said. "The FAA teaches pilots to remain 20-30 miles away from this weather. The pilot didn’t heed that advice."”

 

[GraceG]

Their flight path from Orlando: N307JM Live Flight Tracking and History (PA46 owned by REED KENNETH L) ✈ 20-Dec-2018 ✈ KISM - 39N ✈ FlightAware

Note that it says 'landed' but only the part of the route in green is verified flown. The green line ends off the coast of Huguenot Memorial Park east of Jacksonville. The white line to destination is an approximate (projected).

You can see around 3pm CET both speed and altitude literally drop. Looks like the speed was a bit iffy before that. Also storms in the area.

VNE (Velocity Never Exceed) on the Malibu is 198 knots. http://www.rebay.at/fliegen/manuals/pa46_350_manual.pdf They went over that several times before going off the radar. That in and of itself can cause the loss of a wing or elevator if there is abrupt control movement or severe turbulence at that speed (I flew commercially 20 years before mid- life career change). The radar depiction is something you'd avoid in a jet, let alone a single-engine plane. Sadly, they are unlikely to be recovered.

 

[JanetElaine]

Speculation that weather could’ve been a factor

Plane crashes with 2 on board near Mayport, Coast Guard says

“"A distance of almost 3 miles of straight down in less than two minutes. That suggests to me an in-flight breakup or some sort of loss of control, causing the airplane to spiral down," Booth said. "The FAA teaches pilots to remain 20-30 miles away from this weather. The pilot didn’t heed that advice."”

I found this earlier but didn't want to speculate out of respect for the victims. Now reading what Booth said, I'm posting it anyway, because it lends even more credence to his suspicion of an in-flight breakup. This is what happened with a very similar plane (Piper Malibu 310).
http://aviationweek.com/bca/piper-malibu-2013-accident-broke-flight

 

[artfritzson]

VNE (Velocity Never Exceed) on the Malibu is 198 knots... They went over that several times before going off the radar. That in and of itself can cause the loss of a wing or elevator if there is abrupt control movement or severe turbulence at that speed

The 198 knot Vne is Indicated AirSpeed (IAS) whereas Flightaware is reporting groundspeed. 198 IAS at 22,000 feet is about 285 knots True AirSpeed (TAS). The prevailing winds were west to east at that altitude so probably didn't affect groundspeed much. Flightaware shows a peak groundspeed of about 285 MPH which is about 247 knots which is an IAS of about 172 knots well under the Vne of 198.

From that peak speed, the aircraft's groundspeed started slowing. I would speculate that might be an indication that he had a problem and turned westbound (toward either land or just away from the thunderstorms) and was heading into the prevailing winds thus slowing his groundspeed.

Then that speed started increasing rapidly as he started losing altitude. That could be an indication of almost anything - inflight structural damage caused by the shear forces of a thunderstorm comes to mind as a possibility but it could also be a loss of control in severe turbulence followed by structural damage from the high speed descent.

Finally, the decline of reported groundspeed in the descent is not an actual loss of airspeed. I don't imagine they were going only 60 knots at the end. Instead it is an artifact of what flightaware is reporting - groundspeed. They were not making much progress over the ground in what looks like a near vertical descent.

Having been in frightening situations as a pilot, I can only imagine the terror they must have felt. My heart goes out to them and to their families.

 

[chi123]

I found this earlier but didn't want to speculate out of respect for the victims. Now reading what Booth said, I'm posting it anyway, because it lends even more credence to his suspicion of an in-flight breakup. This is what happened with a very similar plane (Piper Malibu 310).
http://aviationweek.com/bca/piper-malibu-2013-accident-broke-flight

I found this one too about Piper planes. Interesting read. Piper airplanes break up in midair, a dozen lawsuits assert

 

[GraceG]

The 198 knot Vne is Indicated AirSpeed (IAS) whereas Flightaware is reporting groundspeed. 198 IAS at 22,000 feet is about 285 knots True AirSpeed (TAS). The prevailing winds were west to east at that altitude so probably didn't affect groundspeed much. Flightaware shows a peak groundspeed of about 285 MPH which is about 247 knots which is an IAS of about 172 knots well under the Vne of 198.

From that peak speed, the aircraft's groundspeed started slowing. I would speculate that might be an indication that he had a problem and turned westbound (toward either land or just away from the thunderstorms) and was heading into the prevailing winds thus slowing his groundspeed.

Then that speed started increasing rapidly as he started losing altitude. That could be an indication of almost anything - inflight structural damage caused by the shear forces of a thunderstorm comes to mind as a possibility but it could also be a loss of control in severe turbulence followed by structural damage from the high speed descent.

Finally, the decline of reported groundspeed in the descent is not an actual loss of airspeed. I don't imagine they were going only 60 knots at the end. Instead it is an artifact of what flightaware is reporting - groundspeed. They were not making much progress over the ground in what looks like a near vertical descent.

Having been in frightening situations as a pilot, I can only imagine the terror they must have felt. My heart goes out to them and to their families.

Thanks for the more detailed assessment. I didn't realize they had 75 knots on the nose and just went by the graph. I'm guessing in-flight breakup due to severe shear and or/loss of control. I remember a one-night flight into Fresno through more thunderstorms than California usually saw. We were able to avoid them but it was NOT a fun ride. Dispatch wanted us to do another round trip to SFO. I said no, as Captain there was no way I was launching into that as it was much worse than originally forecast. Fortunately, lightning hit the control tower shutting down the airport so I didn't have to argue with the dispatcher any longer.

 

[sasha17]

The plane was recovered with their bodies.

JSO: 2 bodies found in wreckage from December plane crash

 

[Darling136]

The plane was recovered with their bodies.

JSO: 2 bodies found in wreckage from December plane crash

From the link

On Wednesday night, the Sheriff's Office confirmed two bodies were located in the plane. Police said the medical examiner is working to positively identify them.

 

[Darling136]

Meanwhile this seems to be confirmed, their obituary, services are next week
Obituary of Peter & Daniel Renzulli | Kearns Funeral Home

Deceased