This is well said. The key is the TOTALITY of the evidence must be accounted for. The only explanation that fits the totality of the evidence is that Casey killed Caylee (no matter duct tape or some other means). Other explanations (like drowning) can fit certain pieces of the total pie of evidence, but not all of the pie. Comparing the probabilities of different scenarios is also needed to analyze it all. I don't believe the jurors understood this well enough.
I like pie.
I am going to use a hypothetical situation:
The states attorney had a mountain of circumstantial evidence that a black 2009 Honda Civic was used to commit a crime. He called the top engineer in from the Honda corporation to testify as his expert. The SA had so much circumstantial evidence he felt this would be a slam dunk.
At trial the expert witness took the stand and the states attorney started his questioning by affirming the experts credentials, then went on to:
SA This key (exhibit A) was found in the pocket of the accused. We believe it was used to start the black 2009 model Honda. In your expert opinion is this possible?
EW It is absolutely possible, I personally used that key to start the black 2009 model honda.
SA In your expert opinion, is the color on the 2009 model black?
EW Yes
SA Was the model made in 2009?
EW Yes
SA (thinking to himself, this is too easy, absolute slam dunk), We have a gas can here (exhibit B) that contained unleaded gas that we believe was used to fuel the 2009 model. Is this possible?
EW Yes, unleaded gas is consistant with the accelerant normally used to fuel this model.
SA We believe this model was used on the interstate and a large number of bugs splattered on the windsheild. Could the windshield wiper commonly installed on this model have been used to clean these bugs off the bug splattered windshield?
EW Absolutely, when I used the key to start this model, I tested to see if the standard installed wiper was working properly and it was.
SA O.K. Almost done, the rest of these questions can be answered with a simple yes or no. Does this black 2009 Honda have tires?
EW Yes
SA A seat, brakes, taillights?
EW Yes, yes, yes.
SA A windshield, a muffler, a carburator?
EW Yes, yes, yes.
SA An automatic transmission?
EW Yes
SA In your expert opinion, a seat, brakes, tailpip, windshield, muffler, carburator and automatic transmission are all consistant with the items you would normally find standardly installed on a black Honda 2009 model.
EW Yes
SA So, based on alll the circumstantial evidence stated in your answers, we can say that a black Honda 2009 model was used in this crime.
EW Yes
Under cross examination
Defense lawyer Is it your expert testimony then, that your answers given to the SA were based on your examination of a black 2009 Honda Civic?
EW No.
Defense lawyer No, but the mountain of circumstantial evidence pointed out by the SA points to a black 2009 Honda Civic. What were you basing your answers on if not a black 2009 Honda Civic?
.EW I was basing my answers on a black 2009 Honda DN-01 motorcycle.
The totality of the evidence that the SA presented, a virtual mountain of evidence, absolutely makes it look like this motorcycle was a car. The media claimed this was a Honda Civic for 2 years in the news stories. There was no doubt based on the totality of the evidence that this was indeed the Honda Civic used in the crime, until the defense had its chance to cross examine the expert witness. Two questions from the defense dispelled two years of misreporting. Two questions from the defense and the totality of the evidence was worth zero evidentiary value.
In the trial we just watched, although it took the defense a lot more than 2 simple questions, nearly every piece of the states case failed to meet the burden of proof beyond a reasonable doubt, after the defense cross examined and had their own experts testify. Yes, it was still possible that the state was correct and KC may be guilty, but the very simple plain fact is, the state did not meet their burden of proof beyond a reasonable doubt, therefore, the jury made the only decision by law, that they could make.
As always, my entire post is my opinion only.